portland region · 2019. 1. 11. · portland region . in the city of portland, about one in four...

PORTLAND REGION

In the city of Portland, about one in four residents lives in a neighborhood that has undergone strong change since 2000. About 15 percent of city residents live in an area that has undergone strong economic expansion, compared to 9 percent who live in an area of strong decline area. The expanding areas have experienced mild displacement, losing approximately 12 percent of low-income population since 2000. They have seen much faster declines in black population, losing 42 percent of black residents. Potentially gentrifying areas include the King and Woodlawn areas, and the Northwest District. By comparison, the declining neighborhood are adding black, Hispanic, and Asian residents – albeit in small absolute numbers – and losing white residents. The low-income population of declining areas has grown by 67 percent.

In Portland’s suburbs, these patterns are approximately reversed. About 5 percent of suburban residents live in a strongly expanding area, while 16 percent live in a strongly declining area. The overall population of these declining areas has only grown 4 percent since 2000, but low-income population has grown 66 percent. These places have also seen increases in racial diversity. However, the region remains very white overall and white flight from declining suburbs has been low compared to many metros.

Regional Total Population: 2,351,319

Regional Low-Income Population: 682,203

Regional Nonwhite Population: 592,236

Central City Population: 628,908

Central City Low-Income Population: 208,112

Central City Nonwhite Population: 178,723

NET DISPLACEMENT (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Expansion, 2000-2016)

Central City: -3,747

Suburbs: -904

NET CONCENTRATION (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Decline, 2000-2016)

Central City: 9,614

Suburbs: 46,183

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DETAILS ON TABLES

The following tables depict aggregated population and housing change in two categories of neighborhoods across the metropolitan area, its central cities, and its suburbs. The categories are:

• Economically expanding neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with growth and displacement. These are neighborhoods where the low-income* share of population has fallen since 2000 (indicating that an area has grown less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has grown since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents see the area as an attractive place to live).

• Economically declining neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with abandonment and poverty concentration. These are neighborhoods where the low-income share of population has grown since 2000 (indicating that an area has more less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has fallen since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents do not see the area as an attractive place to live).

Two variants of this measure exist, and a separate table is provided for each. They are:

• In the upper set of tables, a strong, narrow measure, which only includes census tracts that have a change of +/-5 percent or greater in low-income population share, and a change of +/-10 percent for non-low-income population. This approach classifies fewer neighborhoods overall, excluding areas with only small changes in their income profile. This is the more robust and preferred measure. It is also the measure used in the accompanying maps.

• In the lower set of tables, a weak, broad measure, which includes all census tracts with any change that meet the criteria for the two categories above, with no cutoffs for scale. This approach classifies more neighborhoods overall, but is noisier, because it includes tracts with very small population changes. In addition, because this report relies on American Community Survey sampling data with margins of error, this measure is more likely to include erroneously classified tracts. However, this broad measure can provide a useful outer estimate of the scale of neighborhood economic expansion and decline.

Three sets of tables are provided. They are:

• Figures for the entire metropolitan region, aggregating central cities and suburbs into one set of tables. • Figures for central cities. • Figures for suburban areas, defined as any area in the metropolitan region not included in a central city.

This includes incorporated and unincorporated communities.

Each table depicts the number of people in each of the two neighborhood categories, both overall and in various population subsets. It also shows the number of housing units of various types in each neighborhood category.

• 2016 Share indicates what share of the regional, city, or suburban population of a given group live in expanding or declining tracts. The box is shaded in accordance with the size of the share.

• 2016 Total indicates the absolute number of individuals in a given group that live in expanding or declining census tracts.

• Net Change since 2000 indicates the change of population of a subgroup in expanding or declining tracts since 2000, both in percentage and in absolute terms. These have been colored to indicate the type of change. In economically expanding tracts, green indicates net growth while blue indicates net displacement. In economically declining tracts, red indicates net poverty concentration while purple indicates net abandonment. Darker shades indicate larger percentage changes.

* For the purposes of this report, “low-income” is classified as individuals at 200 percent of poverty line or less.

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DETAILS ON MAPS

Neighborhood change has also been mapped by individual census tracts, incorporating the same data used to create the tables above.

The map incorporates the strong measure of neighborhood change used to create the tables. In the maps, tracts have been subdivided into four categories:

• Economically expanding areas with low-income displacement, indicated in blue, where a neighborhood’s income profile is improving while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places undergoing changes traditionally associated with gentrification, in which economic pressures push out lower incomes while higher income residents arrive.

• Economically expanding areas with overall growth, indicated in green, where a neighborhood’s income profile is improving while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places with significant new housing construction, where residents across the income spectrum are arriving.

• Economically declining areas with abandonment, indicated in purple, where a neighborhood’s income profile is worsening while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places experiencing the worst neighborhood economic decline, with people across the income spectrum leaving and outright depopulation occurring.

• Economically declining areas with poverty concentration, indicated in red, where a neighborhood’s income profile is worsening while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places where higher-income flight and eroding housing stocks are causing rapid demographic and economic transition, contributing to the impoverishment of the area.

The categories are also shaded to indicate the scale of low-income population change within the census tracts.

The maps allow intra-regional comparisons of observed neighborhood change. However, because these classifications have been made using American Community Survey data with margins of error, precise measures are not possible and it is likely that some individual tracts are erroneously classified. As a consequence, readers are advised to focus more on clusters of tracts undergoing similar changes rather than individual outliers, particularly outliers with smaller-scale changes.

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7.7% 180,201 26.0% +37,186 14.1% 332,057 4.8% +15,2066.7% 45,410 -9.3% -4,651 20.5% 139,829 66.4% +55,7977.3% 21,871 -1.2% -272 21.3% 63,422 99.8% +31,6817.6% 10,067 -3.2% -331 21.3% 28,351 104.3% +14,4738.8% 1,088 -15.4% -198 20.7% 2,546 -11.8% -3395.5% 7,897 43.7% +2,401 10.2% 14,519 20.3% +2,450

14.4% 9,143 -35.8% -5,108 13.7% 8,728 107.3% +4,5185.3% 14,246 36.7% +3,828 20.4% 54,628 61.1% +20,7207.9% 139,270 32.2% +33,893 13.4% 235,993 -7.1% -18,089

10.6% 63,448 131.5% +36,044 9.6% 57,163 26.8% +12,0956.9% 70,500 2.5% +1,727 16.3% 167,425 5.5% +8,7876.4% 17,802 4.5% +772 13.6% 37,656 -10.8% -4,5484.3% 1,611 -40.6% -1,102 24.6% 9,177 102.1% +4,6366.8% 16,191 13.1% +1,874 11.9% 28,479 -24.4% -9,1844.4% 906 -43.3% -691 26.4% 5,483 116.7% +2,9536.1% 32,254 -0.6% -204 14.1% 74,766 -6.7% -5,3779.4% 51,549 23.6% +9,854 14.9% 82,210 0.7% +5957.9% 75,557 36.7% +20,277 13.4% 128,536 9.4% +11,0066.7% 20,841 53.3% +7,243 14.9% 46,545 24.3% +9,0988.0% 163,964 28.3% +36,182 13.9% 285,427 2.7% +7,3905.5% 16,237 6.6% +1,007 15.9% 46,630 20.2% +7,8247.5% 40,806 34.5% +10,473 12.6% 68,637 -3.1% -2,217

10.4% 36,453 23.8% +7,000 16.3% 57,246 13.9% +6,98211.3% 6,047 53.6% +2,111 19.8% 10,649 29.1% +2,403

22.8% 536,251 26.0% +110,555 32.2% 757,706 7.0% +49,85117.7% 120,659 2.0% +2,386 40.6% 276,826 60.4% +104,29218.3% 54,426 11.6% +5,636 41.2% 122,645 87.6% +57,27519.4% 25,848 16.7% +3,697 40.4% 53,762 88.4% +25,23020.4% 2,514 -25.7% -870 40.5% 4,989 -10.0% -55417.7% 25,290 75.6% +10,892 24.8% 35,523 25.7% +7,25423.7% 15,067 -32.3% -7,181 33.9% 21,533 102.5% +10,90016.7% 44,728 57.9% +16,401 40.6% 108,827 77.1% +47,36424.2% 425,386 24.4% +83,540 31.4% 552,734 -4.5% -26,13828.9% 172,836 93.6% +83,562 25.3% 151,316 30.5% +35,36421.0% 215,532 10.2% +19,895 35.5% 364,533 6.4% +21,88021.0% 58,136 8.1% +4,369 31.4% 86,850 -9.0% -8,55513.5% 5,019 -21.9% -1,406 45.7% 17,050 80.3% +7,59422.2% 53,117 12.2% +5,775 29.2% 69,800 -18.8% -16,14913.5% 2,808 -24.5% -911 47.5% 9,858 100.0% +4,92920.4% 108,196 6.6% +6,658 32.2% 170,339 -6.3% -11,45524.0% 132,243 17.7% +19,890 32.1% 176,778 5.3% +8,91023.6% 226,280 33.4% +56,609 31.3% 300,653 8.5% +23,50822.3% 69,532 65.7% +27,562 35.3% 109,936 35.5% +28,80823.6% 486,098 26.2% +100,851 31.9% 657,114 4.8% +29,90717.1% 50,153 24.0% +9,708 34.2% 100,592 24.7% +19,94924.1% 131,625 28.2% +28,916 31.1% 169,748 -0.4% -75824.5% 86,217 23.9% +16,612 33.1% 116,282 18.0% +17,76027.2% 14,600 35.4% +3,818 36.7% 19,681 22.8% +3,656

*The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very sl ight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed.

Data: U.S. Census.

Owner Units Owner UnitsRenter Units Renter UnitsVacant Units Vacant Units

Seniors (65 and up) Seniors (65 and up)U.S.-Born U.S.-Born

Foreign-Born Foreign-Born

Children (Under 18) Children (Under 18)Young Adults (18-34) Young Adults (18-34)

Adults (35 to 64) Adults (35 to 64)

Families in Poverty Families in PovertyNon-Poor Families Non-Poor Families

Single Mothers Single Mothers

College-Educated College-EducatedNon-College Non-College

Families Families

Black BlackHispanic Hispanic

White White

Extreme Poverty Extreme PovertyAmerican Indian American Indian

Asian Asian

TOTAL TOTALLow-Income Low-Income

Poverty Poverty

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion*

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods with Any Indicators of Economic Decline*

(Portland Metro) (Portland Metro)

2016 Share 2016 Total Net Change Since 2000 2016 Share 2016 Total Net Change Since 2000









Families Families


White White


Asian Asian


Poverty Poverty


TABLES FOR METROPOLITAN AREA - Portland Region

ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods Experiencing Strong Economic Decline

(Portland Metro) (Portland Metro)

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15.3% 95,974 20.1% +16,056 8.7% 54,874 7.8% +3,97913.6% 28,377 -11.7% -3,747 11.5% 23,913 67.2% +9,61414.0% 14,571 -6.0% -926 12.6% 13,125 125.5% +7,30413.0% 6,521 -15.0% -1,151 13.3% 6,690 142.8% +3,93516.7% 524 -41.6% -374 7.2% 226 -54.6% -2728.1% 3,779 1.7% +63 12.0% 5,598 52.7% +1,933

21.7% 7,676 -42.9% -5,776 9.3% 3,278 100.0% +1,63912.1% 7,349 15.9% +1,006 12.1% 7,338 89.3% +3,46215.8% 71,323 39.1% +20,038 7.8% 34,935 -11.1% -4,38319.8% 42,853 152.4% +25,873 4.5% 9,658 50.1% +3,22413.4% 32,604 -16.1% -6,252 11.6% 28,182 0.8% +23411.9% 7,629 -5.1% -409 8.2% 5,282 -6.3% -3536.7% 699 -57.6% -951 14.0% 1,460 115.0% +781

12.9% 6,930 8.5% +542 7.1% 3,822 -22.9% -1,1347.0% 419 -59.6% -618 12.2% 728 56.9% +264

11.4% 13,284 -12.8% -1,953 8.6% 9,990 -7.1% -76418.8% 33,086 21.7% +5,904 9.2% 16,142 16.3% +2,26715.4% 40,440 34.3% +10,322 8.1% 21,354 14.7% +2,74112.4% 9,164 25.1% +1,839 10.0% 7,388 -3.2% -24316.2% 87,807 24.1% +17,057 8.3% 45,133 3.0% +1,3239.5% 8,167 -10.9% -1,000 11.3% 9,741 37.5% +2,657

14.4% 20,000 29.1% +4,505 8.4% 11,585 -2.3% -27820.7% 24,965 22.4% +4,570 7.5% 9,042 14.8% +1,16323.4% 3,851 56.0% +1,382 8.9% 1,469 22.8% +273

33.9% 212,897 16.2% +29,674 27.5% 172,866 12.6% +19,36226.7% 55,611 -5.7% -3,342 35.2% 73,306 63.1% +28,35027.0% 28,095 4.6% +1,245 35.9% 37,416 104.8% +19,14427.9% 14,028 9.9% +1,267 33.9% 17,059 102.5% +8,63436.6% 1,151 -39.2% -743 28.8% 906 -39.0% -58020.3% 9,490 14.4% +1,195 34.5% 16,131 46.2% +5,09631.6% 11,175 -43.9% -8,734 33.7% 11,927 117.1% +6,43225.6% 15,546 32.9% +3,846 37.5% 22,796 86.0% +10,53936.6% 164,670 23.8% +31,638 24.6% 110,887 -5.0% -5,84545.1% 97,482 98.6% +48,395 17.2% 37,234 48.7% +12,19828.2% 68,471 -15.2% -12,275 33.5% 81,445 4.9% +3,78729.0% 18,641 -1.8% -338 29.5% 19,012 4.5% +82315.7% 1,639 -44.7% -1,326 46.2% 4,833 108.3% +2,51331.5% 17,002 6.2% +988 26.3% 14,179 -10.6% -1,69016.5% 984 -47.6% -894 45.3% 2,701 102.9% +1,37027.1% 31,534 -8.5% -2,931 31.4% 36,596 4.8% +1,68637.8% 66,528 14.0% +8,192 25.9% 45,667 15.0% +5,95834.7% 91,065 27.2% +19,471 26.0% 68,239 17.1% +9,98132.3% 23,770 26.1% +4,919 30.4% 22,364 8.1% +1,66835.8% 194,162 17.9% +29,545 26.0% 140,800 8.7% +11,22521.7% 18,735 0.7% +129 37.1% 32,066 34.0% +8,13434.8% 48,192 16.9% +6,978 25.4% 35,203 -3.6% -1,32841.0% 49,578 19.8% +8,198 25.4% 30,729 27.6% +6,64544.4% 7,297 44.5% +2,248 26.6% 4,378 18.8% +694


Data: U.S. Census.









Families Families


White White


Asian Asian


Poverty Poverty



(Portland) (Portland)










Families Families


White White


Asian Asian


Poverty Poverty


TABLES FOR CENTRAL CITY ONLY - Portland




(Portland) (Portland)

5

4.9% 84,227 33.5% +21,130 16.1% 277,183 4.2% +11,2273.6% 17,033 -5.0% -904 24.5% 115,916 66.2% +46,1833.8% 7,300 9.8% +654 26.0% 50,297 94.0% +24,3774.3% 3,546 30.1% +820 26.1% 21,661 94.7% +10,5386.1% 564 45.4% +176 25.3% 2,320 -2.8% -674.3% 4,118 131.3% +2,338 9.3% 8,921 6.2% +5175.2% 1,467 83.6% +668 19.3% 5,450 112.0% +2,8793.3% 6,897 69.3% +2,822 22.8% 47,290 57.5% +17,2585.2% 67,947 25.6% +13,855 15.4% 201,058 -6.4% -13,7065.4% 20,595 97.6% +10,171 12.5% 47,505 23.0% +8,8714.8% 37,896 26.7% +7,979 17.8% 139,243 6.5% +8,5534.8% 10,173 13.1% +1,181 15.2% 32,374 -11.5% -4,1953.4% 912 -14.2% -151 28.8% 7,717 99.8% +3,8555.0% 9,261 16.8% +1,332 13.3% 24,657 -24.6% -8,0503.3% 487 -13.0% -73 32.1% 4,755 130.2% +2,6894.6% 18,970 10.2% +1,749 15.7% 64,776 -6.6% -4,6134.9% 18,463 27.2% +3,950 17.6% 66,068 -2.5% -1,6725.0% 35,117 39.6% +9,955 15.4% 107,182 8.4% +8,2654.9% 11,677 86.1% +5,404 16.5% 39,157 31.3% +9,3415.0% 76,157 33.5% +19,125 15.9% 240,294 2.6% +6,0673.9% 8,070 33.1% +2,007 17.8% 36,889 16.3% +5,1675.1% 20,806 40.2% +5,968 14.0% 57,052 -3.3% -1,9395.0% 11,488 26.8% +2,430 20.9% 48,204 13.7% +5,8195.9% 2,196 49.7% +729 24.6% 9,180 30.2% +2,130

18.8% 323,354 33.4% +80,881 34.0% 584,840 5.5% +30,48913.7% 65,048 9.7% +5,728 42.9% 203,520 59.5% +75,94213.6% 26,331 20.0% +4,391 44.0% 85,229 81.0% +38,13114.3% 11,820 25.9% +2,430 44.3% 36,703 82.5% +16,59614.9% 1,363 -8.5% -127 44.5% 4,083 0.6% +2616.4% 15,800 158.9% +9,697 20.1% 19,392 12.5% +2,15813.8% 3,892 66.4% +1,553 34.1% 9,606 87.0% +4,46814.1% 29,182 75.5% +12,555 41.4% 86,031 74.8% +36,82519.9% 260,716 24.9% +51,902 33.8% 441,847 -4.4% -20,29319.8% 75,354 87.5% +35,167 29.9% 114,082 25.5% +23,16618.8% 147,061 28.0% +32,170 36.1% 283,088 6.8% +18,09318.6% 39,495 13.5% +4,707 32.0% 67,838 -12.1% -9,37812.6% 3,380 -2.3% -80 45.6% 12,217 71.2% +5,08119.5% 36,115 15.3% +4,787 30.0% 55,621 -20.6% -14,45912.3% 1,824 -0.9% -17 48.3% 7,157 98.9% +3,55918.6% 76,662 14.3% +9,589 32.4% 133,743 -8.9% -13,14117.5% 65,715 21.7% +11,698 35.0% 131,111 2.3% +2,95219.4% 135,215 37.9% +37,138 33.4% 232,414 6.2% +13,52719.2% 45,762 97.9% +22,643 36.8% 87,572 44.9% +27,14019.3% 291,936 32.3% +71,306 34.1% 516,314 3.8% +18,68215.1% 31,418 43.9% +9,579 33.0% 68,526 20.8% +11,81520.5% 83,433 35.7% +21,938 33.1% 134,545 0.4% +57015.9% 36,639 29.8% +8,414 37.1% 85,553 14.9% +11,11519.6% 7,303 27.4% +1,570 41.1% 15,303 24.0% +2,962


Data: U.S. Census.









Families Families


White White


Asian Asian


Poverty Poverty



(Portland Suburbs) (Portland Suburbs)










Families Families


White White


Asian Asian

TABLES FOR REGIONAL SUBURBS - Portland Region


Poverty Poverty





(Portland Suburbs) (Portland Suburbs)

6

5

205

26

26

84

5

205

5

Portland

Vancouver

Gresham

Camas

Tigard

Hillsboro

Beaverton

Damascus

Tualatin

LakeOswego

WestLinn

Oregon City

WilsonvilleNewberg

HappyValley

Battle Ground

Washougal

Mil-waukie

Fairview

Sherwood

Gladstone

North Plains

King City

WoodVillage

Durham

MaywoodPark

Johnson City

Rivergrove

PORTLAND (CENTRAL) REGION:Gentrification and Economic Decline by Census Tractwith Net Change in Low Income Population, 2000-2016

OR

WA

Data Sources: Geolytics, U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 SF3; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey (5-year data).

CLARK

MULTNOMAH

WASHINGTON

CLACKAMAS

YAMHILL

14

217

Miles

0 3

76

528

NJ

280

Abandonment:(0)< -700 Low Income

Economic Decline:

(1)-1 to -699 Low IncomeLow Income Concentration:

(34)1 to 699 Low Income(38)> 700 Low Income

Low Income Displacement:(1)< -700 Low Income

Economic Expansion:

(34)-1 to -699 Low IncomeOverall Growth:

(9)1 to 699 Low Income(0)> 700 Low Income

Economic expansion/decline is definedif a tract has a +/- 10% change in middle-high-income population and a -/+ 5%change in low-income population share, respectively.

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portland region · 2019. 1. 11. · portland region . in the city of portland, about one in four...

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