postprocessing of temperature and wind for cosmo-7 and cosmo-2
DESCRIPTION
Vanessa Stauch Offenbach, September 2009. Postprocessing of temperature and wind for COSMO-7 and COSMO-2. COSMO General Meeting. calibration with Kalman Filter. >> recursive estimation of forecast error (prediction – correction) >> requires online observations - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Postprocessing of temperature and wind for COSMO-7 and COSMO-2
Vanessa Stauch
Offenbach, September 2009
COSMO General Meeting
2 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
calibration with Kalman Filter
>> recursive estimation of forecast error (prediction – correction)
>> requires online observations
>> can be used quasi-instantaneously (no large historical database)
>> cannot predict fast changes (assumption of persistent error)
>> suitable for a subset of parameters (normally distributed errors)
3 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
calibration with Kalman Filter
it
it
it xx 1
Tt
DMOttt
Tt Txxerr 21
itit QN ,0~
tTt RN ,0~error model:
states evolution:
prediction:Tt
DMOttt
Tt Txxerr 11
21
111
with
with
error : tDMOt
Tt OBSTerr
^
^
4 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
COSMO models
COSMO-7
COSMO-LEPS
COSMO-2
COSMO-LEPS
10km, +132 hours
COSMO-7
6.6km, +72 hours
COSMO-2
2.2km, +24 hours
5 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
Kalman Filter @ MeteoSwiss
operational:
T2m, TD2m
for
COSMO-LEPS mean
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
IFS
in preparation:
FF10m, TW2m, RH2m
for
COSMO-LEPS mean
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
IFS
6 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
Swiss met. measurement network
62 stations
7 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
T2m predictions
COSMO-7
COSMO-2COSMO-2
KFC7
COSMO-7
KFC2
COSMO-7COSMO-7
performance?
8 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
benefit COSMO-2 vs COSMO-7?
04.04.08 – 31.10.08 RMSE RMSE
All ANETZ stations 11.0 % 4.0 %
Low ANETZ stations8.8 % 5.2 %
High ANETZ stations 13.0 % 3.2 %
04.04.08 – 31.10.08 STD STD
All ANETZ stations 12.3 % 4.0 %
Low ANETZ stations12.7 % 5.2 %
High ANETZ stations 12.6 % 3.2 %
C2 vs C7 C2-KF vs C7-KF
=
9 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
benefit COSMO-2 vs COSMO-7-KF??
04.04.08 – 31.10.08 RMSE
C2-DMO vs C7-KF
STD
C2-DMO vs C7-KF
All ANETZ stations-25 % -20 %
Low ANETZ stations -22 % -12 %
High ANETZ stations -27 % -20 %
10 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
Chasseral (CHA)
Evionnaz (EVI)
Gütsch (GUE)
Piz Martegnas (PMA)
Schaffhausen (SHA)
Oron (ORO)
Üetliberg (UEB)
stations for wind speed calibration
SMN station
WKA
11 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
Station CHA EVI GUE ORO PMA SHA UEB WiCol WiFel WiGue WiCro
Höhe (obs) 1599 480 2287 830 2670 437 1043 450 1020 2331 1230
cosmo7 WiCro WiCol WiGue ORO PMA SHA UEB WiCol WiFel WiGue WiCro
Höhe (mod) 1088 1024 2322 811 2334 432 541 1024 1013 2322 1088
deltaheight_7 (mod-obs) -511 544 35 -19 -336 -4.8 -502 574 -6.8 -8.8 -142
cosmo2 CHA EVI WiGue ORO PMA SHA UEB WiCol WiFel WiGue WiCro
Höhe (mod) 1293 746 2298 805 2520 477 604 796 941 2298 1114
deltaheight_2 (mod-obs) -306 266 11 -25 -150 40 -439 346 -79 -33 -116
CHA/WiCro
EVI/WiCol
WiGue
PMA
SHA
UEB
ORO WiFel
height differences
12 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
represenativeness of met. station
model prediction representative for (mean) grid box
local point observation (specific conditions)
wind turbine Gütsch
13 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
COSMO-7 vs COSMO-2
COSMO-7
COSMO-2 (03)
Chasseral (CHA)
56 > 44
Evionnaz (EVI)
90 < 99
Gütsch (GUE) 55 > 45
Oron (ORO) 53 < 59
Piz Martegnas (PMA)
51 > 45
Schaffhausen (SHA)
54 > 52
Uetliberg (UEB)
76 > 69
rRMSE (%) für 1-24h, period 01.09.08 – 31.03.09
CHA
EVI
GUE
PMA
SHA
ORO
UEB
14 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
effect on MOS-postprocessing
COSMO-7
MOS
COSMO-2 (03) MOS
Chasseral (CHA)
34 > 32
Evionnaz (EVI)
78 > 77
Gütsch (GUE) 45 > 39
Oron (ORO) 59 > 47
Piz Martegnas (PMA)
69 > 42
Schaffhausen (SHA)
85 > 77
Uetliberg (UEB)
59 > 54
rRMSE (%) für 1-24h, period 01.09.08 – 31.03.09
CHA
EVI
GUE
PMA
SHA
ORO
UEB
15 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
effect on KF-postprocessing
COSMO-7 KF
COSMO-2 (03) KF
Chasseral (CHA)
33 = 33
Evionnaz (EVI)
77 < 83
Gütsch (GUE) 47 > 43
Oron (ORO) 52 > 50
Piz Martegnas (PMA)
48 > 43
Schaffhausen (SHA)
44 = 44
Uetliberg (UEB)
57 > 56
rRMSE (%) für 1-24h, Zeitraum 01.09.08 – 31.03.09
CHA
EVI
GUE
PMA
SHA
ORO
UEB
16 Statistical PP | COSMO-GM 2009Vanessa Stauch
summary
>> statistical postprocessing profits from a better NWP input model
>> „dynamical downscaling“ does not replace statistical adaptation to local
observations (in particular if results being verified against those)