potashcorp - bmo capital markets farm to market conference - may 14, 2013
TRANSCRIPT
PotashCorp.com
BMO Farm to Market Conference
May 14, 2013
Bill Doyle
President and CEO
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
SQM
ICL
APC
Nitrogen
Phosphate
(Mining/Processing)
Potash
Investments
Sinofert
Source: Fertecon; CRU; Blue, Johnson & Associates; PotashCorp
A Global Crop Nutrient Company
PotashCorp Profile
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate
% of Global Capacity* 20% 2% 5%
Global Position #1 #3 #3
% of Gross Margin (2012) 57% 29% 14%
* Based on nameplate capacity at year-end 2012, which may exceed operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level)
Source: PotashCorp
* 2013F as at April 25, 2013
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F*0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0Potash Nitrogen Phosphate
Unique Potash Position Drives Earnings Growth
PotashCorp Profile
PotashCorp Gross Margin
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
64%
43%
22%
PotashCorp Gross Margin Percentage
Percentage of Net Sales (2012)
10-Year Growth: +1,000%
Gross Margin - US$ Billions
Agricultural Market Update
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
Consumption Production
2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year. Consumption forecast based on historical trend line growth.
Million Tonnes
World Grain and Oilseed Supply/DemandNeed Historically Large Production Increase to Avoid Further Shortfall
Source: USDA, PotashCorp
2013 Production Growth Rate Scenarios
6% (~ 3X Historical Growth Rate)
4% (~ 2X Historical Growth Rate)
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-1350
100
150
200Crop Price Index* Fertilizer Price Index**
Price Index (2010 Average = 100)
Crop and Fertilizer Price RelationshipSignificant Economic Incentive for Increased Fertilizer Usage
Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp
* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption)
** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption)
Fertilizer Market UpdatePotash Update
Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
2012E
2013F0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Million Tonnes KCl
World Potash ShipmentsSlower Demand Periods Have Historically Been Followed by Robust Growth
6.5% CAGR
5.3% CAGR
Potash Shipments to Key Regions Excluding IndiaStrong Growth in Key Regions
Source: Potafertz, Fertecon, CRU, IFA, IPNI, USDOC, AAPFCO, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 Latin America China Other Asia North America
3.5% CAGR
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
2012 China India Other Asia
Latin America
North America
Other 2013F46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Million Tonnes KCl
World Potash DemandConsumption Expected to Drive 2013 Shipments
Region 2012 2013F
China 10.6 ~11.5
India 3.5 ~4.0
Other Asia 7.5 ~8.3
Latin America 9.5 ~10.2
North America 7.9 ~9.5
Other 12.0 ~12.5
Total 51.0 55-57
Estimated Shipments by Region* (million tonnes)
* 2013F based on midpoint of estimated global shipment range
** Estimates per PotashCorp
North America UpdateLow Dealer Inventories and Strong Crop Economics Support Demand
Source: IPNI, USDOC, AAPFCO, PotashCorp
Commentary
• Expect fertilizer applications to be robust due to supportive crop economics and increased agronomic requirements from declining potassium levels
• Strong start to the season as buyers begin to secure product for spring needs given limited inventory at the distributor and retail level
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2012/13F
0
2
4
6
8
10
12Shipments Jul-Dec Shipments Jan-Jun Consumption
Million Tonnes KCl
Latin America UpdatePotash Import Demand Anticipated to Remain Robust
Source: Potafertz
Commentary
• High planted acreage and very supportive farm economics leading to robust fertilizer demand
• Off to a record start in 2013 with strong potash shipments from both Canpotex and New Brunswick
• Given port congestion issues, distributors working to more evenly spread fertilizer shipments throughout the year
• 2013 demand for potash on pace to meet or surpass 2012 record levels
Million Tonnes KCl
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
2013F0
2
4
6
8
10
12Potash Shipments Potash Consumption
China UpdateConsumption Growth Expected to Increase Import Requirements
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Commentary
• Anticipate growth in potash consumption given need to increase domestic productivity due to rising costs of soybean and corn imports
• Significant tonnage currently contracted for first-half 2013 delivery
• Canpotex contract commitments for first-half 2013 represent record levels
Million Tonnes KCl
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011 2 20
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Potash Shipments Potash Consumption
India UpdateExpect Modest Growth From 2012
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Potash Imports K:N Ratio
K:N Ratio Commentary
• Lower potash prices have translated into marginal savings for farmers due to subsidy changes
• Total shipments in 2013 expected to surpass previous year; Canpotex’s contracted volumes represent a significant increase above those in 2012
• Based on estimated imports, K:N ratio likely to remain well-below scientifically recommended levels; unlikely to sufficiently improve lagging yields
Million Tonnes KCl
Other Asia UpdateExpect Strong Demand Growth in Indonesia and Malaysia
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Commentary
• Strong consumption trends were masked by destocking activities in 2012
• Shipments to this market accelerated soon after the settlement of new contracts in China and India
• Despite volatility in prices of palm oil, a key consumer of potash in the region, grower economics remain supportive for robust potash demand
Million Tonnes KCl
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011 2 20
2
4
6
8
10Potash Shipments Potash Consumption
The PotashCorp Advantage: Positioned to Deliver Superior Performance
42%
PotashCorp Rest of World
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Company Reports, PotashCorp
Positioned to Respond to Expected Potash Demand Growth
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
Percentage of New Operational Capability (2012-2016F)*
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
3.5%
1.3%
2.7%
Growth in Global Fertilizer Consumption
Estimated Annual Increase (2012-2016)
23%
Percentage of Global Operational Capability (2016F)*
* Based on public filings and PotashCorp’s estimates of global operational capability
Source: AMEC, Company Reports, PotashCorp
1 New Brunswick cost per tonne based on new 2MMT mine (net addition totals 1.2MMT).
2 PotashCorp project costs exclude infrastructure outside the plant gate; assuming US$/CDN$ at par.
3 Based on 2MMT conventional greenfield mine constructed in Saskatchewan.
4 Calculation of IRR assumes: PotashCorp average per tonne capital cost; 4 year construction timeline, 1 year ramp up and no potash production tax on incremental tonnes.
POT Projects Completed
POT Projects in Progress
SK Greenfield0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500 Greenfield (Including infrastructure and reserve costs)
Greenfield (Excluding infrastructure and reserve costs)
US$ per Tonne
Higher-Cost, Low-Return Greenfield Potash Projects Could Be Deferred
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
$300/tonne $400/tonne $500/tonne0%
10%
20%
30%
40% Estimated PotashCorp Brownfield IRR
Estimated Greenfield IRR (Excluding infrastructure and reserve)
Estimated Greenfield IRR (Including infrastructure and reserve)
1,2
3
1,2,4
3
3
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - Percentage
Estimated Capital Cost of Greenfield Projects
Estimated Return on Brownfield vs Greenfield
Negative
Return
Netback Scenarios
Source: PotashCorp
Ammonia Capacity*
New Ammonia Capacity Adds Margin Growth Potential
PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile
36%
21%
43%
Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN
2013 YTD Nitrogen Product Mix (Sales Volume)
2012 2013F0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar
Million Tonnes
$190 million expansion of our Lima, OH ammonia (+88,000 short tons/year) and urea capacity (+80,000 short tons/year) expected to be complete by late 2015
* All estimated capacity amounts as at beginning of year
Incremental GM of approximately $100-130 million
Source: PotashCorp, Company Reports
Q2-09
Q3-09
Q4-09
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Fertilizer Feed & Industrial
PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price
Industrial and Feed Products Enhance Stability in Phosphate
PotashCorp Phosphate Profile
PotashCorp* Mosaic**0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Feed & Industrial Fertilizer
Phosphate Product Mix (Sales Volume)
US$/tonne
* Based on 2013 YTD sales volumes
** Mosaic’s percentage based on feed sales volume relative to total phosphate sales volume as publicly disclosed for the last four fiscal quarters
Cash Flow Opportunity
Strong Cash Flow + Reduced Capital Spending = Greater Financial Flexibility
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000 Cash Provided by Operating Activities
Capital Spending
US$ Millions
Source: PotashCorp
* As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010; 2003 to 2009 information is presented on a previous Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, information for 2003 to 2009 may not be comparable to 2010 , 2011 and 2012.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
US$ Millions
** Excluding capitalized interest, major repairs and maintenance and Lima expansion
Annual Cash Provided by Operating Activities* PotashCorp Capital Spending**
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