potential for koa improvement in hawaii · financial analysis of a koa plantation • started with...
TRANSCRIPT
Potential for Koa improvement in Hawaii
Nick Koch
Why is there little private investment in koa in Hawaii today ?
• Reasons for lack of investment
• Market forces in Hawaii wood supply
• Economic aspects of koa planting
• Example of koa planting cost
• Opportunities for koa forestry based on research
Lack of investment arises from:• UNCERTAINTY coupled with
– Long term crop 50-60? year rotation– Unknown merchantable productivity– High startup cost
• Lack of incentive to invest in forestry – Some tax incentives– Some cost share programs (with strings)
• Availability of existing material– Existing old koa wood is of high quality– Alternatives are attractive outside Hawai’i
• Strong demand within state– Demand is relatively inelastic – price independent
Current RETAIL prices
Koa: GreenDry
Select: 4/4 $13/bf $14/bfSelect 8/4 $15/bf $17/bfPremium selects 8/4 $18/bf $20/bf
Qtr Sawn add $2.00 $20/bf $22/bfShorts, narrows and commons 3’-5’ $9/bf $10/bf
Upper grade 8/4 3’-6’ 7’+ DryingSelect and better slabs (16” & Wider) $25/bf $35/bf $2/bfSelect and light curl 2A $25 $30 $1/bfMedium Curl 3A $30 $35 $1/bfPremium curl/instrument4A $41 $50 $1/bfPremium curl/instrument 5A $57 $70
$1/bfFor 4/4 deduct 20%
Current RETAIL prices
Koa: GreenDry
Select: 4/4 $13/bf $14/bfSelect 8/4 $15/bf $17/bfPremium selects 8/4 $18/bf $20/bf
Qtr Sawn add $2.00 $20/bf $22/bfShorts, narrows and commons 3’-5’ $9/bf $10/bf
Upper grade 8/4 3’-6’ 7’+ DryingSelect and better slabs (16” & Wider) $25/bf $35/bf $2/bfSelect and light curl 2A $25 $30 $1/bfMedium Curl 3A $30 $35 $1/bfPremium curl/instrument4A $41 $50 $1/bfPremium curl/instrument 5A $57 $70
$1/bfFor 4/4 deduct 20%
Koa log price comparison
Source: ITTO ANNUAL REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD TIMBER SITUATION 2009
• Koa vs. teak (FOB – harbor)– Koa = $ 4.5 / bf c. 1990’s & $ 5 in 2009
– Conversion: 200 bdft/m3
Koa
Big leaf mahogany & African mahogany vs. Koa
Source: ITTO ANNUAL REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD TIMBER SITUATION 2009
Koa
Koa
Cites App II listing Nov/03
Macro: North American wood balance 1990-2006
Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2009
• American consumption dependent on imports since 1992
• North America net importer since 2003
• American demand has outpaced supply for last 15+ years
• Continued dependence on imports in spite of economic downturn
• As emerging markets increase domestic use of raw materials, we will need to find local sources of wood to satisfy our needs
Spotted owl controversy
Uncertainty
Genetic variability of heartwood from 15 year old scarified koa stand
- There is still a long way to go in research!
Financial analysis of a koa plantation
• Started with a known cost of establishment– $ 2,300 / ac – everything included
• Added several productivity values– Calculated NPV of future harvest
– Focus on merchantable wood volume
– Used current koa stumpage values + 1% real price appreciation/annum
• Included cattle land values for comparison
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
40 50 60 70 80
NPV
(USD
)
Rotation (years)
NPV of planted koa forest in former pasture based on rotation length and productivity
Planting cost
MAI 2 m3/ac
MAI 3 m3/ac
MAI 4 m3/ac
MAI 5 m3/ac
cattle @ $15
cattle @ $ 20
Cattle @ $25
MAI = 5m3 /ac/yr1000 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 4 m3 /ac/yr800 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 3 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 2 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr <Establishment to yr 2 cost>
How can research help?
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
40 50 60 70 80
NPV
(USD
)
Rotation (years)
NPV of planted koa forest in former pasture based on rotation length and productivity
Planting cost
MAI 2 m3/ac
MAI 3 m3/ac
MAI 4 m3/ac
MAI 5 m3/ac
cattle @ $15
cattle @ $ 20
Cattle @ $25
MAI = 5m3 /ac/yr1000 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 4 m3 /ac/yr800 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 3 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 2 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr <Establishment to yr 2 cost>
Shorten rotation
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
40 50 60 70 80
NPV
(USD
)
Rotation (years)
NPV of planted koa forest in former pasture based on rotation length and productivity
Planting cost
MAI 2 m3/ac
MAI 3 m3/ac
MAI 4 m3/ac
MAI 5 m3/ac
cattle @ $15
cattle @ $ 20
Cattle @ $25
MAI = 5m3 /ac/yr1000 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 4 m3 /ac/yr800 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 3 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 2 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr <Establishment to yr 2 cost>
Incr
ease
pro
duct
ivit
y
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
40 50 60 70 80
NPV
(USD
)
Rotation (years)
NPV of planted koa forest in former pasture based on rotation length and productivity
Planting cost
MAI 2 m3/ac
MAI 3 m3/ac
MAI 4 m3/ac
MAI 5 m3/ac
cattle @ $15
cattle @ $ 20
Cattle @ $25
MAI = 5m3 /ac/yr1000 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 4 m3 /ac/yr800 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 3 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 2 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr <Establishment to yr 2 cost>
Decrease startup costs (or increase incentives)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
40 50 60 70 80
NPV
(USD
)
Rotation (years)
NPV of planted koa forest in former pasture based on rotation length and productivity
Planting cost
MAI 2 m3/ac
MAI 3 m3/ac
MAI 4 m3/ac
MAI 5 m3/ac
cattle @ $15
cattle @ $ 20
Cattle @ $25
MAI = 5m3 /ac/yr1000 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 4 m3 /ac/yr800 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 3 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr
MAI = 2 m3 /ac/yr600 bdft/ac/yr <Establishment to yr 2 cost>
Decrease startup costs (or increase incentives)
Eucalyptus grandis on sugar land
Wait where did that $ 2,300 come from?
• 6 years of planting koa in Volcano on behalf of Kamehameha Schools
• Approximately 350 acres of koa plantation to date
• Known problems– Acacia psyllid
– Stem form
Establishment costs – Koa to 1.5 yrActivity $/hour trees/hour $/tree $/acre $ / project
Spot cultivator $175 360 $ 0.49 $211.46 $ 21,145.83
Mech pp spray $115 870 $ 0.13 $57.50 $5,750.00Chem 0.6 42 $25.20 $2,520.00
$82.70 $8,270.00
Planting $35 60 $ 0.58 $253.75 $ 25,375.00 kilo/hr
Seed collection $35 0.25 $0.03 $ 12.18 $ 1,218.00 cost per kilo $ 140.00
Seedlings $1.20 $522.00 $ 52,200.00
$/oz oz/treeFertilizer 1 $35.00 133 $ 0.26 $114.47 $ 11,447.37
10-30-10 @ $ 21 $0.026 4 $ 0.11 $45.68 $ 4,567.50 $ 0.37 $160.15 $16,014.87
Fertilizer 2 $35.00 133 $ 0.26 $114.47 $ 11,447.37 11-52-00 @ 6 oz/tr $0.03 4 $ 0.13 $55.68 $ 5,568.00 $ 25.6/bag $ 0.39 $170.15 $17,015.37Fertilizer $ 0.76 $ 330.30 $ 33,030.24
Spray 1 $35 87 0.40 $175.00 $ 17,500.00 Chem $ 42.00 0.25 $ 0.02 $10.50 $1,050.00
$ 0.43 $185.50 $18,550.00Spray 2 $35 87 0.40 $175.00 $ 17,500.00
Chem $ 42.00 0.25 $ 0.02 $10.50 $1,050.00$ 0.43 $185.50 $18,550.00
Spray 3 $35 87 0.40 $175.00 $ 17,500.00 Chem $ 42.00 0.25 $ 0.02 $10.50 $1,050.00
$ 0.43 $185.50 $18,550.00Spray 4 $0 87 0.00 $0.00 $ -
Chem $ - 0.25 $ - $0.00 $0.00$ - $0.00 $0.00
Post Competition control $ 1.28 $ 556.50 $ 55,650.00
Singling 1 $35.00 109 $0.32 $139.68 $13,967.89Singling 2 $35.00 109 $0.32 $139.68 $13,967.89Singling 3 $35.00 109 $0.32 $139.68 $13,967.89Singling $0.96 $419.04 $41,903.67
Grand totals $5.30 $2,387.93 $238,792.74
Establishment costs – site & plants
Activity $/hour trees/hour $/tree $/acre $ / project
Spot cultivator $175 360 $ 0.49 $211.46 $ 21,145.83
Mech pp spray $115 870 $ 0.13 $57.50 $5,750.00
Chem 0.6 42 $0.06 $25.20 $2,520.00
$82.70 $8,270.00
Planting $35 60 $ 0.58 $253.75 $ 25,375.00
kilo/hr
Seed collection $35 0.25 $0.03 $ 12.18 $ 1,218.00
cost per kilo $ 140.00
Seedlings $1.20 $522.00 $ 52,200.00
$2.36 $1,024.59 $ 102,458.83
Establishment costs – fertilizer
Activity $/hour trees/hour $/tree $/acre $ / project
$/oz oz/tree
Fertilizer 1 $35.00 133 $ 0.26 $114.47 $ 11,447.37
10-30-10 @ $ 21 $0.026 4 $ 0.11 $45.68 $ 4,567.50
$ 0.37 $160.15 $16,014.87
Fertilizer 2 $35.00 133 $ 0.26 $114.47 $ 11,447.37
11-52-00 @ 6 oz/tr $0.03 4 $ 0.13 $55.68 $ 5,568.00
$ 25.6/bag $ 0.39 $170.15 $17,015.37
Fertilizer $ 0.76 $ 330.30 $ 33,030.24
Establishment costs – weed control
Activity $/hour trees/hour $/tree $/acre $ / project
Spray 1 $35 87 0.40 $175.00 $ 17,500.00
Chem $ 42.00 0.25 $ 0.02 $10.50 $1,050.00
$ 0.43 $185.50 $18,550.00
Spray 2 $35 87 0.40 $175.00 $ 17,500.00
Chem $ 42.00 0.25 $ 0.02 $10.50 $1,050.00
$ 0.43 $185.50 $18,550.00
Spray 3 $35 87 0.40 $175.00 $ 17,500.00
Chem $ 42.00 0.25 $ 0.02 $10.50 $1,050.00
$ 0.43 $185.50 $18,550.00
Spray 4 $0 87 0.00 $0.00 $ -
Chem $ - 0.25 $ - $0.00 $0.00
$ - $0.00 $0.00
Post Competition control $ 1.28 $ 556.50 $ 55,650.00
Establishment costs – stem form
Activity $/hour trees/hour $/tree $/acre $ / project
Singling 1 $35.00 109 $0.32 $139.68 $13,967.89
Singling 2 $35.00 109 $0.32 $139.68 $13,967.89
Singling 3 $35.00 109 $0.32 $139.68 $13,967.89
Singling $0.96 $419.04 $41,903.67
Spot cultivator, $211.46 , 8.9%
Preplant spray, $82.70 , 3.5%
Planting, $253.75 , 10.6%
Seed collection, $12.18 , 0.5%
Seedlings, $522.00 , 21.9%
Fertilizer , $330.30 , 13.8%
Weed control, $556.50 , 23.3%
Singling, $419.04 , 17.5%
Koa planting cost distribution
Components of successful forest business development
• Known costs / risks / outcomes• Land availability• Favorable regulatory & political structure
– Taxes– Incentives– Ability to harvest wood
• Availability of tools to manage forest– Specialized machines– People capital – know how– Genetic material -available-
Specialized equipment: spot cultivator
Opportunity for koa improvement• Decrease UNCERTAINTY
– Known growth potential• How much merchantable wood will land produce?• How long will it take?• What are the SOPs for the development of a koa stand?
• Mitigate threats– Koa wilt– Acacia psyllid– Rust– Politics!
• Improve information availability– Manual for koa planting / development – much work done
• Pictures – demonstration plots• How to videos• Financial returns based on reality
Mahalo