LBSTde

1

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbH

Potential of New RenewablesMarkets amp Barriers

European Parliament ITRE Committee12 April 2010

LBSTde

2

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Study for European Parliament ITRE Committee

Study Potential and promotion of new generation ofrenewable technologies

Contributors Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik HINICIOCentre for European Policy Studies College of Europe

Status Draft

Finalisation April 2010

LBSTde

3

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

New Renewables

Off13shore wind energy 75 to 10 MW turbines floatingfoundations

New photovoltaics technologies silicon thin film concentratingdye ink organic

Concentrating solar power parabolic through linear fresnelsolar tower

Bio13energy biogas upgrading BTL IGCC lignocellulosic ethanol

Ocean energy current wave tidal

Geothermal energy Hot Dry Rock ORC Kalina Cycle

LBSTde

4

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Analysis

I State of the Art and Further Potential for Emerging Technologies

Technology Ripeness

Estimated Technical Potential in EU1327

II Markets and Barriers

Status Markets and Industry Structures

Barriers Cross13cutting Technology13specific

LBSTde

5

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind First Wind Farms

Horns RevCompletion 2002Capacity 160 MWLocation 141320 km off Danish west coastWater depth 61314 mInvest 1675eurokW (plus major overhaul of

all wind turbines in 2004)

Alpha VentusCompletion November 2009Capacity 60 MWLocation 45 km off the German island of BorkumWater depth 30 mInvest 4200 eurokW

Total installed offshore capacity lt1800 MWPlanned offshore capacity X0000 MW

LBSTde

6

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind Floating Foundations

LBST

deriv

ed fr

om [N

REL 2

007]

Ballast Stabilised(Spar-buoy)

Mooring Line Stabilised(Tension-Leg-Platform)

Buoyancy Stabilised

LBSTde

7

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Silicon

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Mono crystalline silicon Si 13-20 gt20~270lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yr20 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Multi crystalline silicon Si 12-14~270

lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yr17 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr)

Edge-defined film-fedgrowth (EFG) silicon

Si 12-13 lt1 (target)Lifetimegt 25 yr

String Ribbon silicon Si 11-12 lt1 (target)Low energy payback time15 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Amorphous silicon Si 5-7~220

lt1 (target)

Lifetmie gt 25 yr

Low energy payback timelt 2 yr

Micro crystalline siliconMicromorph silicon

Si7-89-1085

gt12 lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yrNF3 emissions at productionstage can be avoided by using F2

LBSTde

8

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Thin Film

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Cadmium Tellurium CdTe 8-11 15~220

lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yrLow energy payback timeLimited tellurium (Te) resourcesDanger of Cd release in case offire

Cupper Indium Di-sulphide (CIS)

CuInS2 7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-sulphide (CIGS)

Cu(GaIn)S2 7-11gt15

166lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-Selenide (CIGSSe)

Cu(GaIn)(SSe2)

7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

2

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Study for European Parliament ITRE Committee

Study Potential and promotion of new generation ofrenewable technologies

Contributors Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik HINICIOCentre for European Policy Studies College of Europe

Status Draft

Finalisation April 2010

LBSTde

3

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

New Renewables

Off13shore wind energy 75 to 10 MW turbines floatingfoundations

New photovoltaics technologies silicon thin film concentratingdye ink organic

Concentrating solar power parabolic through linear fresnelsolar tower

Bio13energy biogas upgrading BTL IGCC lignocellulosic ethanol

Ocean energy current wave tidal

Geothermal energy Hot Dry Rock ORC Kalina Cycle

LBSTde

4

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Analysis

I State of the Art and Further Potential for Emerging Technologies

Technology Ripeness

Estimated Technical Potential in EU1327

II Markets and Barriers

Status Markets and Industry Structures

Barriers Cross13cutting Technology13specific

LBSTde

5

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind First Wind Farms

Horns RevCompletion 2002Capacity 160 MWLocation 141320 km off Danish west coastWater depth 61314 mInvest 1675eurokW (plus major overhaul of

all wind turbines in 2004)

Alpha VentusCompletion November 2009Capacity 60 MWLocation 45 km off the German island of BorkumWater depth 30 mInvest 4200 eurokW

Total installed offshore capacity lt1800 MWPlanned offshore capacity X0000 MW

LBSTde

6

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind Floating Foundations

LBST

deriv

ed fr

om [N

REL 2

007]

Ballast Stabilised(Spar-buoy)

Mooring Line Stabilised(Tension-Leg-Platform)

Buoyancy Stabilised

LBSTde

7

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Silicon

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Mono crystalline silicon Si 13-20 gt20~270lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yr20 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Multi crystalline silicon Si 12-14~270

lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yr17 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr)

Edge-defined film-fedgrowth (EFG) silicon

Si 12-13 lt1 (target)Lifetimegt 25 yr

String Ribbon silicon Si 11-12 lt1 (target)Low energy payback time15 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Amorphous silicon Si 5-7~220

lt1 (target)

Lifetmie gt 25 yr

Low energy payback timelt 2 yr

Micro crystalline siliconMicromorph silicon

Si7-89-1085

gt12 lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yrNF3 emissions at productionstage can be avoided by using F2

LBSTde

8

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Thin Film

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Cadmium Tellurium CdTe 8-11 15~220

lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yrLow energy payback timeLimited tellurium (Te) resourcesDanger of Cd release in case offire

Cupper Indium Di-sulphide (CIS)

CuInS2 7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-sulphide (CIGS)

Cu(GaIn)S2 7-11gt15

166lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-Selenide (CIGSSe)

Cu(GaIn)(SSe2)

7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

3

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

New Renewables

Off13shore wind energy 75 to 10 MW turbines floatingfoundations

New photovoltaics technologies silicon thin film concentratingdye ink organic

Concentrating solar power parabolic through linear fresnelsolar tower

Bio13energy biogas upgrading BTL IGCC lignocellulosic ethanol

Ocean energy current wave tidal

Geothermal energy Hot Dry Rock ORC Kalina Cycle

LBSTde

4

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Analysis

I State of the Art and Further Potential for Emerging Technologies

Technology Ripeness

Estimated Technical Potential in EU1327

II Markets and Barriers

Status Markets and Industry Structures

Barriers Cross13cutting Technology13specific

LBSTde

5

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind First Wind Farms

Horns RevCompletion 2002Capacity 160 MWLocation 141320 km off Danish west coastWater depth 61314 mInvest 1675eurokW (plus major overhaul of

all wind turbines in 2004)

Alpha VentusCompletion November 2009Capacity 60 MWLocation 45 km off the German island of BorkumWater depth 30 mInvest 4200 eurokW

Total installed offshore capacity lt1800 MWPlanned offshore capacity X0000 MW

LBSTde

6

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind Floating Foundations

LBST

deriv

ed fr

om [N

REL 2

007]

Ballast Stabilised(Spar-buoy)

Mooring Line Stabilised(Tension-Leg-Platform)

Buoyancy Stabilised

LBSTde

7

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Silicon

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Mono crystalline silicon Si 13-20 gt20~270lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yr20 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Multi crystalline silicon Si 12-14~270

lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yr17 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr)

Edge-defined film-fedgrowth (EFG) silicon

Si 12-13 lt1 (target)Lifetimegt 25 yr

String Ribbon silicon Si 11-12 lt1 (target)Low energy payback time15 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Amorphous silicon Si 5-7~220

lt1 (target)

Lifetmie gt 25 yr

Low energy payback timelt 2 yr

Micro crystalline siliconMicromorph silicon

Si7-89-1085

gt12 lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yrNF3 emissions at productionstage can be avoided by using F2

LBSTde

8

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Thin Film

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Cadmium Tellurium CdTe 8-11 15~220

lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yrLow energy payback timeLimited tellurium (Te) resourcesDanger of Cd release in case offire

Cupper Indium Di-sulphide (CIS)

CuInS2 7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-sulphide (CIGS)

Cu(GaIn)S2 7-11gt15

166lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-Selenide (CIGSSe)

Cu(GaIn)(SSe2)

7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

4

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Analysis

I State of the Art and Further Potential for Emerging Technologies

Technology Ripeness

Estimated Technical Potential in EU1327

II Markets and Barriers

Status Markets and Industry Structures

Barriers Cross13cutting Technology13specific

LBSTde

5

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind First Wind Farms

Horns RevCompletion 2002Capacity 160 MWLocation 141320 km off Danish west coastWater depth 61314 mInvest 1675eurokW (plus major overhaul of

all wind turbines in 2004)

Alpha VentusCompletion November 2009Capacity 60 MWLocation 45 km off the German island of BorkumWater depth 30 mInvest 4200 eurokW

Total installed offshore capacity lt1800 MWPlanned offshore capacity X0000 MW

LBSTde

6

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind Floating Foundations

LBST

deriv

ed fr

om [N

REL 2

007]

Ballast Stabilised(Spar-buoy)

Mooring Line Stabilised(Tension-Leg-Platform)

Buoyancy Stabilised

LBSTde

7

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Silicon

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Mono crystalline silicon Si 13-20 gt20~270lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yr20 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Multi crystalline silicon Si 12-14~270

lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yr17 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr)

Edge-defined film-fedgrowth (EFG) silicon

Si 12-13 lt1 (target)Lifetimegt 25 yr

String Ribbon silicon Si 11-12 lt1 (target)Low energy payback time15 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Amorphous silicon Si 5-7~220

lt1 (target)

Lifetmie gt 25 yr

Low energy payback timelt 2 yr

Micro crystalline siliconMicromorph silicon

Si7-89-1085

gt12 lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yrNF3 emissions at productionstage can be avoided by using F2

LBSTde

8

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Thin Film

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Cadmium Tellurium CdTe 8-11 15~220

lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yrLow energy payback timeLimited tellurium (Te) resourcesDanger of Cd release in case offire

Cupper Indium Di-sulphide (CIS)

CuInS2 7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-sulphide (CIGS)

Cu(GaIn)S2 7-11gt15

166lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-Selenide (CIGSSe)

Cu(GaIn)(SSe2)

7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

5

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind First Wind Farms

Horns RevCompletion 2002Capacity 160 MWLocation 141320 km off Danish west coastWater depth 61314 mInvest 1675eurokW (plus major overhaul of

all wind turbines in 2004)

Alpha VentusCompletion November 2009Capacity 60 MWLocation 45 km off the German island of BorkumWater depth 30 mInvest 4200 eurokW

Total installed offshore capacity lt1800 MWPlanned offshore capacity X0000 MW

LBSTde

6

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind Floating Foundations

LBST

deriv

ed fr

om [N

REL 2

007]

Ballast Stabilised(Spar-buoy)

Mooring Line Stabilised(Tension-Leg-Platform)

Buoyancy Stabilised

LBSTde

7

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Silicon

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Mono crystalline silicon Si 13-20 gt20~270lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yr20 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Multi crystalline silicon Si 12-14~270

lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yr17 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr)

Edge-defined film-fedgrowth (EFG) silicon

Si 12-13 lt1 (target)Lifetimegt 25 yr

String Ribbon silicon Si 11-12 lt1 (target)Low energy payback time15 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Amorphous silicon Si 5-7~220

lt1 (target)

Lifetmie gt 25 yr

Low energy payback timelt 2 yr

Micro crystalline siliconMicromorph silicon

Si7-89-1085

gt12 lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yrNF3 emissions at productionstage can be avoided by using F2

LBSTde

8

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Thin Film

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Cadmium Tellurium CdTe 8-11 15~220

lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yrLow energy payback timeLimited tellurium (Te) resourcesDanger of Cd release in case offire

Cupper Indium Di-sulphide (CIS)

CuInS2 7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-sulphide (CIGS)

Cu(GaIn)S2 7-11gt15

166lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-Selenide (CIGSSe)

Cu(GaIn)(SSe2)

7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

6

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Offshore Wind Floating Foundations

LBST

deriv

ed fr

om [N

REL 2

007]

Ballast Stabilised(Spar-buoy)

Mooring Line Stabilised(Tension-Leg-Platform)

Buoyancy Stabilised

LBSTde

7

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Silicon

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Mono crystalline silicon Si 13-20 gt20~270lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yr20 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Multi crystalline silicon Si 12-14~270

lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yr17 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr)

Edge-defined film-fedgrowth (EFG) silicon

Si 12-13 lt1 (target)Lifetimegt 25 yr

String Ribbon silicon Si 11-12 lt1 (target)Low energy payback time15 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Amorphous silicon Si 5-7~220

lt1 (target)

Lifetmie gt 25 yr

Low energy payback timelt 2 yr

Micro crystalline siliconMicromorph silicon

Si7-89-1085

gt12 lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yrNF3 emissions at productionstage can be avoided by using F2

LBSTde

8

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Thin Film

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Cadmium Tellurium CdTe 8-11 15~220

lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yrLow energy payback timeLimited tellurium (Te) resourcesDanger of Cd release in case offire

Cupper Indium Di-sulphide (CIS)

CuInS2 7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-sulphide (CIGS)

Cu(GaIn)S2 7-11gt15

166lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-Selenide (CIGSSe)

Cu(GaIn)(SSe2)

7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

7

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Silicon

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Mono crystalline silicon Si 13-20 gt20~270lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yr20 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Multi crystalline silicon Si 12-14~270

lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yr17 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr)

Edge-defined film-fedgrowth (EFG) silicon

Si 12-13 lt1 (target)Lifetimegt 25 yr

String Ribbon silicon Si 11-12 lt1 (target)Low energy payback time15 yr (1700 kWh(msup2yr))

Amorphous silicon Si 5-7~220

lt1 (target)

Lifetmie gt 25 yr

Low energy payback timelt 2 yr

Micro crystalline siliconMicromorph silicon

Si7-89-1085

gt12 lt1 (target)Lifetime gt 25 yrNF3 emissions at productionstage can be avoided by using F2

LBSTde

8

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Thin Film

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Cadmium Tellurium CdTe 8-11 15~220

lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yrLow energy payback timeLimited tellurium (Te) resourcesDanger of Cd release in case offire

Cupper Indium Di-sulphide (CIS)

CuInS2 7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-sulphide (CIGS)

Cu(GaIn)S2 7-11gt15

166lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-Selenide (CIGSSe)

Cu(GaIn)(SSe2)

7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

8

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Thin Film

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

Cadmium Tellurium CdTe 8-11 15~220

lt 1 (target)

Lifetime gt 25 yrLow energy payback timeLimited tellurium (Te) resourcesDanger of Cd release in case offire

Cupper Indium Di-sulphide (CIS)

CuInS2 7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-sulphide (CIGS)

Cu(GaIn)S2 7-11gt15

166lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

Cupper Indium GalliumDi-Selenide (CIGSSe)

Cu(GaIn)(SSe2)

7-11 gt15 lt 1 (target) Limited indium (In) resources

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

9

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

PV Concentrating Dye Ink Organic

Efficiency (Panel) Costs

Technology Composition State-of-the-art []

Potential[]

[euroWp]Environmental performance

ConcentratingPhotovoltaics (CPV)

272115

(crystalline Si)30

Dye ink cell112

(Laboratory)

Short lifetime

Limited Ruthenium (Ru) andplatinum (Pt) resources

Organic Photovoltaics(OPV)

4-6(cell)

Short lifetime (lt 1 yr)

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

10

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic through500 MWe installed10 GWe in planning

under construction

Linear fresnel 5 MWe installed Solar tower 40 MWe installed

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

11

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy

Upgrading of biogas offers the advantage to use the natural gas grid totransport biogas to the consumer and to use methane from biogas as transportation fuelMeanwhile mature technologies for biogas upgrading have been developed

Synthetic gasoline and diesel (ldquobiomass13to13liquidrdquo ndash BTL) can beproduced via gasification of lignocellulosic biomass such as wood and straw with downstreamsynthesis and upgrading The technology is under development since several years BTL plants arestill an issue of research and development

Lignocellulosic Ethanol Alternatively lignocellulosic biomass can be converted toethanol via hydrolysis and fermentation The lignocellulosic ethanol process is also in the state ofresearch and development The use of lignocellulosic biomass for the production of transportationfuels competes with the use of lignocellulosic biomass for electricity and heat generation

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Lignocellulosic biomass can be usedfor the generation of electricity via an IGCC process which offer a higher electrical efficiency thanconventional steam turbine only based processes Solid biomass fuelled IGCC are still an issue ofresearch and development

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

12

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Bio13Energy Environmental Issues

Environmental issues in Europe are mainly the cultivation ofenergy crops eg the emissions of greenhouse gases from fertiliseruse and the pollution of water and soil from the application ofagrochemicals Adequate crop rotation systems lower theenvironmental impacts

Imported Biomass is a major concern with respect to thedestruction of primary forests and the reduction of biodiversity

The potential of bioenergy is more limited than the potential forwind and solar energy The bioenergy potential in Europe isalready exploited to 40 13 75

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

13

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Ocean Energy

Ocean energy includesndash Oscillating Water Column (OWC)ndash Seawave Slot13Cone converter (SSG)ndash horizontal and vertical ocean current turbinesndash Pelamis Wave Energy Converterndash Wave dragonndash osmotic power (salinity gradient power)

Ocean power is mostly in the research stage some are indemonstration with the potential as mainstream energy sources

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

14

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal power is independent from solar radiation orfossil fuels and can supply heat and electricity around13the13clock

Hot Dry Rock While hydrothermal geothermal plants can be built only in a few locationsHot Dry Rock (HDR) is technically feasible in all European countries but not everywhere economicaldue to high drilling costs

Organic Rankine Cycle Kalina Cycle The heat supplied by the majority of thegeothermal resources in the EU such as aquifers and fault lines and geothermal resourcesproduced via HDR is usually below 220degC requiring Organic Rankine Cycle or Kalina Cycletechnologies Typical electricity conversion efficiencies are 7 to 12 (depending on watertemperature)

Pilot Stage Commercialisation Prerequisites So far only a few low13temperature pilot plats have been realised To move geothermal power generation tocommercialisation a significant cost reduction of all technologies is necessary

Research Needs The development of applied simulations methods low13temperature cyclesand improved total system integration is necessary

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

15

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technology Ripeness Overview

Research Develop-ment

Pilot Demo Pre-

commercial

Commercial

Offshore wind Foundations

PVSilicon microSi aSi multi-Si

PVThinfilm CdTe

PVThin (3G) Gretzel dye organic

Ocean power

Biogas

BioBtL Choren

BioLignEtOH Iogen

GeoPower

GeoHeat

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

16

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Potential for Renewable Electricity in EU1327

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Hydropower Wind offshoreWind onshore Geothermal power stationsOcean power (waves currents) Concentrating solar power (CSP)Photovoltaics (2) Electricity consumption EU 27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

min max min max min max

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh

yr]

Forestry Residual wood Residual strawBiogas from organic residue Short rotation forestry (SRF)Energy crops for biogas Oil seedsElectricity consumption EU-27 2006 (1)

ConsumptionEU 27 2006

bdquoSRF+ldquo bdquoPlantation biogas+ldquo bdquoPlant oill+ldquo

Ludw

ig13B

oumllko

w13S

yste

mte

chni

k G

mbH

201

0

Biomass-basedDirect power

(1) IEA Statistics 2008(2) Roofs (23 of the adequate roofs) and openl land (01 of the total land area)

100 of the biomass potential is used for electricity generation (no biofuelsheat from biomass only via CHP)

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

17

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Supplying Energy Demand by Solar

World

Europe

Germany

LBST 1988

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

18

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Technical Potentials

Technology Market deployment share Market potential

Offshore wind lt 1 2900-3200 TWheyr

Photovoltaics lt 1 1100-1700 TWheyr (1)

Concentrating solar power lt 1 1450-2240 TWheyr

Bioenergy (heat electricitytransport fuel)

40-75 1100-2000 TWhyr (2)

Ocean power ~0 200 TWheyr (3)

Geothermal power gt 1 460-520 TWheyr

(1) In case of photovoltaics it is assumed that two third of the adequate roofs (thereof one third is reserved to solarthermal collectors for heat generation) and additionally 01 ofthe total land area in EU 27 is occupied with photovoltaic panels eg on noise barriers along motorways

(2) The lower value is based on the assumption that todayrsquos biomass use for the generation of heat electricity and 1st generation biofuels is kept constant and the remainingtechnical biomass potential is used for the production of BTL and upgraded biogas In 2007 about 665 TWh of heat (therof solid biomass 642 TWh) 88 TWh of electricity (solidbiomass including solid waste 64 TWh biogas 20 TWh plant oil 4 TWh) and 94 TWh of transportion fuel (1st generation ethanol 22 TWh oil seed based biofuels 72 TWh)were generated in the EU 27 [Witt 2009] In case of bioenergy it has been assumed that about 10 of the arable land in EU 27 is available for energy crops The upper value isbased on the assumption that all biomass is used for heat and electricity production whereas short rotation forestry and plants for biogas generation are used as energy crops

(3) Technical potentials according to [OEA 2010] Ocean wave power 142 TWhyr Tidal power 36 TWhyr Osmotic power 28 TWhyr

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

19

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Status Mapping of New Renewable Energies

HIGH

LOW

HIGHLOW

EARLY MARKET NICHE MARKET

BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET

Offshore wind

Concentratingsolar power

Ocean power

Geothermal power

MarketPotential

MarketDeployment

LBST 2

010

Bioenergy (2)

Photovoltaics (1)

(1) Roofs plus 01 of the total land area in EU 27(2) Residues plus 10 of the arable land in EU 27

Heat ampPower

Transport Fuel

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

20

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Markets and Industry Structures

In Europe renewable technology developments havemainly been initiated by small start13up companies which havegrown rapidly and or have merged

Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the youngestablished players

Offshore wind farms have investment volumes beyond thepossibilities of SMEs all other (new) renewables can be deployed bySMEs and large corporations alike

The changes required in the energy sector by limited resourceavailabilities and increasing environmental burdens in the course ofthe next 10+ years will be great Price signals will not anticipatethese changes early enough to allow for a smooth transition

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

21

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting

All renewables affected not specific to new renewables

RampD and project financing issuesndash Start13up and early13stage financing requiredndash see also next presentation

Acceptance and approvalndash ldquoNIMBY ndash Not in My Backyardldquo

Support instrumentsndash Diversity of support instruments with varying effectiveness

General mind setndash Bio13energies tend to be overestimated electricity13based renewables

underestimatedndash Short13term considerations often win over long13term needs

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

22

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Cross13cutting (2)

Infrastructure and planningndash In terms of renewables in the context of the Second Strategic Energy

Review the Commissions intends to develop the SouthernMediterranean solar and wind energy potential as well as offshorewind in the North Sea This is in line with its strategy to developindigenous energy production to decrease dependence on importedfossil fuels

ndash A European approach to such large13scale renewable energy sourcesrequires a pan13European smart grid (ie ldquosuper gridrdquo) which canbring electricity from renewables to where it is needed over longdistances and which can balance the natural variability ofrenewables on a European scale This needs to be a priority forEurope and the European Economic Recovery Plan shows that EUspending on infrastructure projects is possible

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

23

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific

Offshore Wind and Concentrating Solar Powerndash availability of (coastal) grid accessndash (hinterland) transport capacity

Photovoltaicsndash lack of knowledge institutional capacity and appropriate

mechanisms on supply and demand side to address the potentiallyhuge markets in so13called developing and threshold countries

Bio13energyndash limited availability which needs to be appropriately acknowledged

whenever development strategies are formulated

Biogasndash lack of financial incentives and administrative regulation for feeding

into the natural gas grid

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

24

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Barriers Technology specific (2)

Ocean Energyndash grid accessndash European regulatory framework eg in order to ensure co13existence

with seaways

Geothermal Energyndash high exploration riskndash acceptance of geothermal technology as a whole is in danger if

earthquakes from Hot Dry Rock developments repeat More carefulplanning and geological intelligence is needed

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde

LBSTde

25

ludwig boumllkowsystemtechnik

Contact

Matthias AltmannSenior Consultant

Ludwig13Boumllkow13Systemtechnik GmbHDaimlerstr 15D1385521 OttobrunnGermany

p +49896081101338f +49896099731e matthiasaltmannlbstdew httpwwwlbstde