potential pathways of ecosystem responses to climate change landsat mss image mosaic 1977-1986 usgs...
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Potential Pathways of Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change
Landsat MSS Image Mosaic1977-1986
USGS
Torre JorgensonABR, Inc.
Types of Land Change• Geomorphic processes
– Coastal (increased erosion, flooding, salt kill) – Fluvial (changed channel migration rates, sedimentation– Lacustrine (mid-summer drying, bank erosion, tapping, paludification)– Permafrost (ice-wedge degradation, slower permafrost formation)
• Hydrology– Earlier snowmelt and spring discharge– Higher spring water levels– Mid-summer lake drying (faster drawdown)– Lower mid-summer river discharge, active channel shrinkage– Decreased glacier meltwater input – Lake tapping and drainage
• Vegetation– Longer growing season (more biomass)– Earlier forage quality curve– Shrub expansion (height and infilling), (migration)– Succession after disturbance– Migration (alder, spruce, sphagnum)(corridors)– Microsite moisture shifts (wetter troughs, drier centers)– Leaching and acidification– Paludification (bog meadows, productivity decrease)– Species composition-community shifts
Approaches to Predicting Change
• Extrapolate from past changes– Soil/sediment stratigraphy, remote
sensing, historical photos
• Complex modeling
• Comparative ecosystem analysis– North Slope versus Seward Peninsula
Ecosystems of Northern Alaska
Coastal Pathways
Nearshore Water
Higher Tundra Deltas, Basins, Lagoons, Barrier Islands
Coastal Wet Sedge Tundra (brackish)
Coastal Wet Sedge Tundra (saline)
Coastal Grass Tundra
Coastal Dwarf Shrub (willow)
Coastal Barrens (including salt-killed tundra)
Upland Tussock Tundra
Lowland Moist Sedge-Shrub Tundra
Lowland Wet Sedge Tundra
Lowland Wet Sedge Tundra (swales)
Lowland Moist Sedge-Shrub Tundra
flooding, salinization
bank erosion
bank erosion
sedimentationmudsand
sedimentationsedimentation
sedimentation, less floodingsedimentation, less flooding
Mudflat C. subspath. D. fisheri
Coastal Meadow Toposequence
Lake Basin EvolutionIce-rich Center
Ice-rich Margin
Erosion of Ice-rich Center
Lacustrine Wet Sedge Tundra
Lowland Moist Sedge-Shrub Tundra
Lacustrine Barrens
Lacustrine Low Willow Scrub
Deep Lakes
Lacustrine Grass Marsh
Non-basinsBasins
Upland Tussock Tundra
Upland Tussock Tundra
Lowland Moist Sedge-Shrub Tundra
Shallow Lakes, Pits
Lowland Wet Sedge Tundra
Lowland Wet Sedge Tundra (swales)
complete drainagepartial drainage
Lacustrine Sedge Marsh
Lacustrine Grass Meadows
Lowland Bog Meadows
Lowland Low Birch-Willow Shrub
Upland Shrubby Tussock Tundra
successionsuccessionsuccession
paludification
paludification, acidification
paludification, acidification
bank erosion, thermokarstbank erosion, thermokarst
ice aggradation, paludification
shrub expansionshrub expansion
shrub expansion
paludification, acidification
paludification, acidification
paludification, acidification
paludification
thermokarst troughs and pits
Coastal Plain Pathways
ice aggradation, paludification
drying
Lowland Moist Sedge-Shrub Tundra:
Lowland Wet Sedge Tundra Conversion by lowering water table
Wet Sedge - NPRA
Bog Meadow – Seward Peninsula
Intermediate Degradation
Dead Tussocks
Advanced Degradation
Initial Stabilization
Infilling with Sphagnum
Drying After Permafrost Degradation
Photo by Torre Jorgenson
Lacustrine
Ecosystems
Lower Noatak Lowlands
Lacustrine Marsh: In deeper water (30–100 cm), Arctophila fulva
In shallower (<30 cm) water, Carex aquatilis, Eriophorum angustifolium and Utricularia vulgaris
Lowland Water: Shallow (<1.5 m) ponds: water freezes to the bottom during winter, thaws by early to mid-June, and is warmer than water in deep lakes.
Deep (1.5 m) lakes: water does not freeze to the bottom during winter in deeper portions of the lake.
Thermokarst Lake, Koyukuk Flats
Mea
nder
Act
ive-
Ove
rban
k D
epos
it
Riverine Barrens
Riverine Wet Sedge Tundra
Riverine Low Willow Scrub
Riverine Moist Tall
Willow Shrub
Riverine Dryas Dwarf Shrub
Lowland Wet Sedge
Tundra
Lowland Moist Sedge-Shrub
Tundra
Riverine Lake
Riverine Grass Marsh
Riverine Moist Sedge-Shrub
Tundra
Fluvial ProcessesM
eand
er I
nact
ive-
Ove
rban
k D
epos
itM
eand
er A
band
oned
O
verb
ank
Dep
osit
Act
ive
Cha
nnel
D
epos
its
reduced flooding, frequent sedimentation, increased drainage
channel abandonment
reduced flooding,
less sedimentation,
increased drainage
paludi-fication
reduced flooding,
less sedimentation,
ice aggradation,
decreased drainage
sedimentation, paludification
ice aggradation,
less sedimentation
paludification
thermokarst, bank erosion
thermokarst
cutbank, increased drainage
channel migration
riverbank erosion
increased drainage
Lower Perennial River
Upland Dryas Dwarf Shrub
Upland Dry Tall Willow
Shrub Eol
ian
Sand
Dep
osit
Eolian Processes
Riverine Tall Alder-
Willow Shrub
Lowland Bog Meadow
Riverine Cottonwood
Forest
Riverine White Spruce
Forest
Upland Cassiope
Dwarf Shrub
paludification, acidification
drainage sedimentation,
alder expansion,
reduced flooding, less sedimentation, ice aggradation, decreased drainage
ice aggradation,
reduced sedimentation
paludificationUpland Low-
Birch-Willow Shrub
Upland Crowberry
Dwarf Shrub
Riverine Pathways
Lower Perennial River
Riverine Barrens
Riverine Moist Tall
Willow Shrub
Riverine Moist Low Willow Shrub
Upland Dry Dryas Dwarf Shrub
Riverine Wet Sedge Meadow
Lowland Wet Sedge Meadow
Water
Riverine Succession
Floodplains as Migration Corridors
Upland Hydrology:8-10 ka (loess) to 60 Ma surfacesHighly integrated drainagesSuprapermafrost Groundwater FlowSoil highly leached
Water-tracks
Upland Ecosystems
Swales/ Watertracks/ Troughs/ Basins
Mid-SlopesRidges
Upland Tussock Tundra
Lowland Birch-Willow Shrub
Deep Thaw Lakes
Upland Shrubby Tussock Tundra
Wet Sedge Meadow
Upland Alder Tall Shrub
Upland Dryas Dwarf Shrub
Tundra (including ericaceous dwarf shrub, cassiope
dwarf shrub)
Lowland Bog
Meadows
Upland Moist Sedge-Shrub
Tundra
Upland Low Birch-Willow Shrub
See Coastal Plain Basin Pathways
extremely ice-rich
thermokarst troughs and pits
Upland Alder Tall Shrub (including alder-tussock)
thaw slumps
Upland Pathways
acidificationshrub growth
acidificationshrub growth
alder expansion
alder expansion
ice aggradation,paludification
paludification
Noatak Basin Thaw SlumpsIce-rich Colluvium
Alkaline Toposequence
Upland Low Birch-Willow
Shrub Tundra:
NPRA
Seward Peninsula
King Salmon
High resilience of tussock tundra
MAAT = -12 C
MAAT = -6 C
MAAT = +2 C
Lichen Loss – Noatak Basin
1909 – Phillip Smith
2006 Photo by Torre Jorgenson
Shrub Expansion
Upland Tall Alder Shrub
Alnus crispa, Salix pulchra, Salix glauca, Vaccinium uliginosum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea, B. glandulosa, Ledum groenlandicum, Empetrum nigrum, Equisetum arvense, Spiraea beauverdiana, Calamagrostis canadensis, Petasites frigidus, Sphagnum spp., Hylocomium splendens
1918Near Naknek River, King Salmon
P. Hagelbarger
2005G. Frost
1918Near Naknek River, King Salmon
P. Hagelbarger
Fire
Disturbance
Ecosystems of Northern Alaska
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Potential Habitat Use by Threatenedor Endangered Species
Spatial modelling based on the mapping of ecosystems of Northern Alaska by ABR and TNC.Projection: Albers Equal-Area Conic (Central Meridian: -154°, Reference Latitude: 50°,Standard Parallel 1: 68°31', Standard Parallel 2: 70°54'); Datum: NAD 27ABR file: NoAk_TES_Hab_Use_02-161.mxd, 19 May 2003
C h
u k
c h
i S
e
a
Kotzebue Sound
Approximate Scale = 1:4,600,000
25 0 25 50 75 100Miles
25 0 25 50 75 100 125Kilometers 5
CapeLisburne
Pt. Barrow
PrudhoeBay
DemarcationPoint
HABITAT USE BY THREATENED OR ENDANGERED SPECIES:The map links the evaluation of habitat use by two threatenedspecies (Spectacled and Steller’s eiders) to the map of 36 ecotypes(habitats). The map displays the distribution of habitats that areimportant to these threatened species. The index was computedas the highest use rank (0–3) for either species in each habitat.Actual distributions are much less than modeled distributions.
B e a u f o r t S e a
Documented breeding ranges based onLarned et al. (2003) for Spectacled Eidersand on Ritchie and King (2003) for Steller'sEiders. Total range poorly known.
Habitat Use
None (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
High (3)
Documented breedingrange for Spectacled Eiders
Recent extent of Steller'sEider Observations
Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map
Walker et al. 2003