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ANCST Workshop, KL, 15-16 Nov 2018 Dr. Sri Raghavan Tropical Marine Science Institute (TMSI) Dr.Jina Hur, Mr.Liu Jiandong Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Son and Dr.Liong Shie-Yui Future Climate Projections for Southeast Asia: What does high resolution modelling tell us?

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  • ANCST Workshop, KL, 15-16 Nov 2018

    Dr. Sri RaghavanTropical Marine Science Institute

    (TMSI)Dr.Jina Hur, Mr.Liu Jiandong

    Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Son and Dr.Liong Shie-Yui

    Future Climate Projections for Southeast Asia: What does high

    resolution modelling tell us?

  • TMSI’s Climate Downscaling work

    WRF30 km

    ECHAM A1B

    MIROC A1B

    CCSM A1FI

    CCSM A2

    ERA40 & ERA-Interimreanalyses

    ECHAM A2

    CCSM A1B

    MIROC A2

    ACCESS1.0

    MPI-ECHAM6

    ERA-Interimreanalyses

    HaDGEM-A0

    MIROC5

    CCSM4

    WRF20 km

    CMIP3 CMIP5

    Scenarios: RCP 4.5 and 8.5WRF region: Southeast Asia

    90E – 130E15S to 28N

    MPI ESM

    MIROC5

    HadGEM-A0

    CCSM4

  • ANNUALMean Rainfall1986-2005(mm/day)

    CHIRPS

    WRF/ENSWRF/ERAI

    ENS – ensembleof GCMS

    MPI ECHAM6CSIRO ACCESSNIES MIROC5

    20 kmsimulations

  • CHIRPS

    WRF/ERAI WRF/ENS

    DJFMean Rainfall1986-2005(mm/day)

  • CHIRPS

    WRF/ERAI WRF/ENS

    JJAMean Rainfall1986-2005(mm/day)

  • Gauge/Observations Coverage

  • ANNUALMean Temperature1986-2005(°C)

    APHRODITE

    WRF/ERAI WRF/ENS

  • DJFNortheast MonsoonSurface Winds (m/s)1986-2005

    ERAI

    WRF/ERAI WRF/GCMs

  • JJASouthwest MonsoonSurface Winds (m/s)1986-2005

    ERAI

    WRF/ERAI WRF/GCMs

  • Annual Cycle of Precipitation

    JAKARTA

    VIENTIANE HANOI

    MANILA

  • WRF Multi Model Ensemble2020-2040 vs 1986-2005: RCP 4.5

  • WRF Multi Model Ensemble2020-2040 vs 1986-2005: RCP 4.5

    ANNUALchange

  • RCP 4.5

    RCP 8.5

    2016-2040 2071-2100

    2016-2040 2071-2100

    RCP 4.5

    RCP 8.5

  • Summary• WRF model is able to reproduce the regional climate

    reasonably well.• Multi-Model ensemble show some uncertainties, yet

    capture the mean state of the climate of the region• That SEAsia will be affected largely by temperature

    increases is certain.• Rainfall trends are mixed and still uncertain.

    Seasonal (monsoonal changes) are neverthelesssignificant

    • Further downscaling is progress @ 10 km and 5 km.With additional fine tuning and physicsimprovements, downscaling of selected GCMs willbe performed.


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