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The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040
Dr. David KhemakhemGlobal Energy Security ForumMiami, February 12, 2013
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
100 countries
15 demandsectors
20 fueltypes
technology & policy
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2030
~ 60 $/ton
CO2 “Proxy” Cost
2040
~ 20 $/ton
~ 15 $/ton
~ 80 $/ton
< 10 $/ton
CO2 “Proxy” Cost
CO2 Policies
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Global fundamentals
0
3
6
9
2010 2020 2030 2040
PopulationBillion
Population Trends Impacts Energy Use
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
OECD
Africa
China
India
Southeast Asia
Latin America
Fertility Rate*Children per Woman
* Source: World Bank & United Nations
OECD
Other Non OECD
China
India
Africa
0
3
6
9
2010 2020 2030 2040
Global Demographics*Billion
Age 0-14
Age 65+
Age 15-64
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2020 2040
Energy Demand
Economic Growth Drives Energy DemandGDPTrillion 2005$
China
United States
2010-2040 AAGR %
5.6%
2.3%
1.8%Other OECD
Other Non
OECD
3.9%World2.8%
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
2000 2020 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
2010-2040 AAGR %World1.0%
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
2000 2020 2040
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Energy Saved ~500
2010-2040 AAGR %World1.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2020 20400
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2020 2040
Tale of Two WorldsNon OECDQuadrillion BTUs
Biomass
Other Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Coal
Gas
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
Energy Mix Continues to EvolveQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
1.0%
2040
2010
0.8%
1.7%
-0.1%
2.4% 0.4%
5.8% 1.8%
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Energy Demand by SectorQuadrillion BTUs
Electricity Demand
Energy Demand by Sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Quadrillion BTUs
2010
2025
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Residential/commercial
0
150
300
450
600
750
EuropeOECD
N. America OtherOECD
China Africa India LatinAmerica
Russia/Caspian
MiddleEast
Other NonOECD
Million Households
Household Growth Drives Residential Demand
2010
2040
2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2020 2040
Residential/Commercial Outlook
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2020 2040
Residential Energy IntensityMillion BTUs per Person
Japan
North America
Europe OECD
China
India
By SectorQuadrillion BTUs
Commercial
Residential
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2020 2040
Fuel DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Industry Energy Demand Increases
Chemicals
Manufacturing & Industry
Energy Industry
Other
PlasticsFertilizer
Paint
Steel
Automobiles Textiles
Liquid Fuels
CoalNatural Gas
Agriculture
Lubricants Asphalt
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2020 2040
Industrial Energy DemandBy FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Electricity
Oil
Gas
Renewables
Coal
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2020 2040
By RegionQuadrillion BTUs
OECD
China
India
Rest of Non
OECD
Market Heat
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Electricity generation
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 20400
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040
Electricity Demand by RegionNon OECDThousand TWh
Middle East
Southeast AsiaRussia/Caspian
Other Non OECD
China
Africa
India
Thousand TWh
North America
Europe OECD
Other OECD
OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040
Electricity GenerationQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
Renewables
Coal
Electricity Generation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Non OECD
Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
-30
0
30
60
90
120
Non OECD OECD
Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
Renewables
Coal
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Nuclear Wind Solar
GWGlobal Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Nuclear Wind Solar
Global Capacity UtilizedGW
Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2020 2040
k TWhBy Generation
Wind & Solar
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Gas
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
0
15
30
45
60
75
2000 2020 2040
Sector DemandMBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
AP NA Europe LA ME ROW
Demand by RegionMBDOE
‘40
‘25
‘10
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
PHV/EVFull HybridCNGLPGDiesel ConvMogas Conv
2040
Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2025
Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2010
Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040
Elec/PHV
Full Hybrid
Natural Gas
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2020 2030 2040
Incremental Vehicle Efficiency GainsMiles per Gallon
Powertrain
Body & Accessories
Vehicle Size
Hybrid
Average27 MPG
47 MPG
Annual New Car Sales by TypeMillion Cars
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Today’s Vehicle Technology Choices
Gasoline: 350 miles
Diesel: 435 miles
E85: 260 miles
Full hybrid: 515 miles
CNG: 210 miles
PHV: Up to 40 miles + 450 miles
Electric: Up to 100 miles
0
5
10
15
20
Full Hybrid CNG Plug-inHybrid
Elec
2012$k5-Year Cost & Savings
Cost above Conventional
Fuel Savings
Estimated Driving Distance per Fill-up
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Heavy Duty Transportation Efficiency
0
15
30
45
2010 2025 2040
Demand w/o Efficiency Demand
Efficiency ImpactMBDOE
0
15
30
45
60
75
'10-'25 '25-'40 Other
New Truck Efficiency% Improvement, 2010-2040
Technology
Powertrain
Body
Powertrain
Body
Hybrid
Regional Impact
Logistics & Congestion
Truck Size
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
15
30
45
60
75
2000 2020 2040
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil NaturalGas
Other
Non OECD
OECD
Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040MBDOE
Transportation Fuel MixFuel DemandMBDOE
Diesel
Gasoline
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Jet FuelFuel Oil
OtherNatural Gas
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Supply
Remaining Oil ResourceCrude and Condensate (BBO)
North AmericaEurope
~100
Asia Pacific
~150
Latin America Africa
Russia/Caspian
~1,000
Middle East
~650
~200
~1,100
~1,100
Global
~4,300
Source: IEA
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Liquids Supply
MBDOE
Supply by Type
Other LiquidsBiofuels
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Tight OilOil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2040
Resource*TBO
Remaining Resource
Cumulative Production
* Source: IEAExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Global Gas Resource
Over 200 years coverage at current demand
World0
5
10
15
20
25
301000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
4.3
North America
2.5
Latin America
1.6
Europe OECD
2.6
Africa
4.9
Middle East
6.2
Russia/ Caspian*
4.5
Asia Pacific
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts
2010 2025 20400
20
40
60
80
100
120
North America Gas Supply
Local Unconventional
LNG
Local Conventional
BCFD
2010 2025 20400
100
200
300
400
500
600
North America Conventional
North America Unconventional
Global Gas Supply
Rest of World Conventional
Rest of World Unconventional
BCFD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2020 20400
50
100
150
200
2000 2020 2040
Growth in Unconventional Production
Production by RegionBCFD
Production by TypeBCFD
Tight
Coal Bed Methane
Shale
Rest of World
Asia Pacific
Americas
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2025 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2025 2040
North America Energy Balance
Oil
Regional Supply
Gas
Quadrillion BTUs
Net Imports
Net Exports
Regional Supply
Net Exports
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
2010 2025 2040
Regional Supply
Total Energy BalanceNet Exports
Net Imports
0
30
60
90
2010 2025 2040
0
30
60
90
2010 2025 2040
Asia Pacific Energy Balance
Oil
In-country supply
Gas
Quadrillion BTUs
Net Imports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2025 2040
In-country supply
Total Energy Balance
Net Imports
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
In-country supply
Net Imports
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Shale Gas and Hydraulic Fracturing
Thousands of feet of solid rock
Conductor Casing
Intermediate Casing
Surface Casing
Production Casing**14,000 feet measured depth
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Regional Energy Trends Evolve
Latin AmericaMiddle East
Africa
Other AP
China
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Percent of World TotalBy Region
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
4
8
12
16
Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind*
UtilitySolar PV*
Baseload, Startup 20302012 cents/kWh
*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission
$60/ton of CO2
$0/ton
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
Reliability Cost
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '40
SolarGeothermalBiomass/OtherWindHydro
Renewables Gain Share
United StatesPercent of TWh
EuropePercent of TWh
Asia PacificPercent of TWh
*Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
ExxonMobil: Technology for Energy ChallengesTechnology to address the twin challenges of increased energy demand while mitigating risk from GHG emissions Improving Efficiency
• Automotive technologies– Vehicle light weighting– ExxcoreTM: tire lining technology – Advanced synthetic lubricants
• Power generation– Cogeneration– Wind turbine lube oils
Expanding Supplies• Directional drilling• Unconventional and liquefied natural gas• Advanced biofuels
Reducing Emissions• Natural gas for power generation • Controlled Freeze Zone™• Carbon capture and storage• Global Climate & Energy Project
0
150
300
450
Conv. Diesel LNG-CI
Costs Impact U.S. Heavy Duty Choices
$k3-Year Cost of Ownership
2012
FuelCost
Vehicle Cost
0
150
300
450
Conv. Diesel CNG-SI
$k5-Year Cost of Ownership
2012
FuelCost
Vehicle Cost
CNG Tanks
Short Haul Truck
LNG Tanks
Long Haul Truck
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Bio for David Khemakhem (k’mak’m) David Khemakhem is an Energy and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil.
He is a member of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department, where he is responsible for assessing energy trends, emerging energy technologies, and related market and public policy issues around the world. He is one of the principal contributors to ExxonMobil’s long-term global Energy Outlook. He is also active in communicating ExxonMobil’s view of the future of energy to a wide variety of audiences.
David has worked with Exxon then ExxonMobil since 1997 in numerous technical and management assignments covering activities in the United States and around the world.
He started his career with Exxon Production Research Company in the area of Wellbore Design and eventually became Team Lead for the Well Integrity Group at ExxonMobil Upstream Research.
In 2001, he transferred to ExxonMobil Production Company as a Subsurface Engineer overseeing completion and workover operations in Colorado, Wyoming, California and South Texas.
In 2003, David relocated to Qatar, where he spent six years in a variety of assignments, including Drilling and Completions Engineering Manager. In this role he led a team of engineers working on RasGas’s 14 drilling rigs during the development of the North Field.
In 2009, David transferred back to Houston, joining the ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company as Well Performance Manager and then in 2010, he became the Unconventional Gas Recovery Manager.
The following year, in 2011, David moved to ExxonMobil Headquarters to join the Corporate Strategic Planning team where he is helping in the development of the Energy Outlook for 2013 and beyond.
David holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Minnesota.
Text in Box: Short Bio
Fresh Water AquiferConductor Casing
Intermediate Casing
Surface Casing
Production Casing*14,000 feet measured depth