powerpoint presentation: water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •tina neale,...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Presented atThe Aspen Global Change Institute
June 5 - 10, 2003 Summer Science Session I
“Learning from Regions: A Comparative Appraisal ofClimate, Water, and Human Interactions in the Colorado and
Columbia River Systems”
Stewart CohenUniversity of British Columbia
Water Management & Climate Changein the Okanagan Region, Canada:Highlights from Interim Report
![Page 2: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Water Management & ClimateChange in the Okanagan Region,Canada: Highlights from Interim
ReportStewart Cohen,
Adaptation & Impacts Research Group, EnvironmentCanada;
Institute for Resources Environment & Sustainability,University of British Columbia
Presented at Aspen Global Change Institute June 7, 2003
![Page 3: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Okanagan Climate Change & WaterManagement Study Team
• Stewart Cohen – Adaptation & Impacts Research Group-EC, Institutefor Resources Environment & Sustainability-UBC, Vancouver
• Denise Neilsen, Scott Smith, Grace Frank, Walter Koch – PacificAgricultural Research Centre-AAFC, Summerland
• Younes Alila, Wendy Merritt – Forest Resources Management, UBC• Mark Barton, Roger McNeill, Bill Taylor – Pacific & Yukon
Region-EC• Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey –
Institute for Resources Environment & Sustainability, UBC• Brian Symonds, B.C. MoWLAP, Penticton
Thanks to Andrew Reeder, City of Summerland; Toby Pike, Water Supply Association for their assistance to the study team.Supported by a grant from the Climate Change Action Fund (#A463/433), Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa.
![Page 4: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Water Resources in the Okanagan BasinPart of the Columbia Basin, British Columbia
•Area = 8200 km2
•Okanagan Valley = 160 km in length•Population = 530,000 (1999 approx.); 13municipalities, 3 regional districts, 4 FirstNation communities, 59 “improvementdistricts”•Agriculture: 2278 farms, 78,300 ha (3%decrease since 1976 due to urbanization)•Summer & winter tourism•Forestry: >4 million m3/year
Source: Cohen and Kulkarni (2001); mapfrom Alan Hamlet (U. Washington)
Okanagan-SimilkameenBritish Columbia
Columbia Basin
CANADA------------U.S.A.
![Page 5: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Water Management & Climate Change inthe Okanagan, British Columbia
![Page 6: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Meteorological stations andunregulated watersheds usedin calibration and testing of theUBC Watershed Model in theOkanagan Basin, BritishColumbia.Kelowna
Osoyoos
Vernon
Penticton
Ellis Reservoir
Whiteman Creek
Vaseux Creek
CANADA---------U.S.A.
![Page 7: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Okanagan Climate Change Scenario:Implications for Water Management
![Page 8: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Water Management & Climate Change inthe Okanagan—Study Framework, 2002-04
![Page 9: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Dialogue 2000-01•Climate change IS92a•Hydrology: 6 creeks•Regional developmentcontext•Focus groups
•Adaptation optionslist
Crop Water Demand2000-01•General estimate for SouthOkanagan
Okanagan PIA Framework
Expanded Dialogue2002-04•Climate change--SRES•Surface hydrology
•Whole basin•Crop water demand
•Major crops•Land use change scenarios•Water supply & demandscenarios•Water institutions
•Irrigators•Early adopters
•Adaptation cost options•General estimates
•Focus groups•Implementation ofadaptation options
Proposed PIA2004-06•Climate change—MonteCarlo simulations
•Variability,extremes
•Hydrology—whole cycle•Surface•Groundwater•Land disturbance
•Crop water demand•Update
•Fisheries impacts•Adaptation cost options
•Subregionalestimates
•Regional water policy•Interactive dialogue onadaptation
•STELLA software•Posters•Project website
![Page 10: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Structure of the UBC Watershed Model (Quick, 1995). This isa ‘semi-distributed’model in which thewatershed is split intoelevation bands
![Page 11: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Winter Season (DJF) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mean Temperature Change (oC)
Prec
ipita
tion
Cha
nge
(%)
Summer Season (JJA) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
0 1 2 3 4 5Mean Temperature Change (oC)
Prec
ipita
tion
Cha
nge
(%)
Climate ChangeScenarios for 50 °N,
120°W
CGCM2 A21
CGCM2 B21
CSIROMk2 A21
CSIROMk2 B21
HadCM3 A22
HadCM3 B22
Legend
![Page 12: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Whiteman Ck - CGCM2 A2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cu
mec
s)
base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2
Whiteman Ck - CGCM2 B2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cu
mec
s)
base90 s20cb2 s50cb2 s80cb2
Whiteman Ck - CSIRO A2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
ischa
rge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sa2 s50sa2 s80sa2
Whiteman Ck - CSIRO B2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
ischa
rge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2
Whiteman Ck - HADLEY A2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
ischa
rge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20ha2 s50ha2 s80ha2
Whiteman Ck - HADLEY B2
00.5
11.52
2.53
3.54
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cu
mec
s)
base90 s20hb2 s50hb2 s80hb2
![Page 13: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-Jan 1-Mar 30-Apr 29-Jun 28-Aug 27-Oct 26-Dec
Ave
rage
Dai
ly D
isch
arge
(cm
s) Qbase Q2020 Q2050 Q2080
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1-Jan 1-Mar 30-Apr 29-Jun 28-Aug 27-Oct 26-Dec
Ave
rage
Dai
ly S
now
Mel
t (m
m)
Mbase M2020 M2050 M2080
Whiteman Ck: CSIRO A2
![Page 14: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cu
mec
s)
base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 B2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cu
mec
s)
base90 s20cb2 s50cb2 s80cb2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
ischa
rge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sa2 s50sa2 s80sa2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO B2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
ischa
rge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY A2
01234
5678
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
ischa
rge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20ha2 s50ha2 s80ha2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY B2
01
234
56
78
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
ischa
rge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20hb2 s50hb2 s80hb2
![Page 15: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
CSIRO
0
1
2
3
4
5
Base2020's [A2]2050's [A2]2080's [A2]2020's [B2]2050's [B2]2080's [B2]
Flow
Volum
e (10
^6 m
3)
January to March April to June July to August October to December
CGCM2
0
1
2
3
4
5
Base2020's [A2]2050's [A2]2080's [A2]2020's [B2]2050's [B2]2080's [B2]
Flow
Volum
e(10^
6 m3)
January to March April to June July to August October to December
Hadley
0
1
2
3
4
5
Base2020's [A2]2050's [A2]2080's [A2]2020's [B2]2050's [B2]2080's [B2]
Flow
Vol
ume(
10^6
m3)
January to March April to June July to August October to December
Base & scenariomean seasonalflow volumes atEllis Reservoir
![Page 16: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Canada---------U.S.A.
Canada---------U.S.A.
![Page 17: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Okanagan Basin Licensed Consumptive Quantity by Purpose
48%27%
4% 2%
19%
Irrigation Local AuthIrrigationWaterworks Local AuthWaterworks (Other)Other
Total licensed consumptive quantity = 476.8 million m3
Source data: Land and Water BC, Water License Query. Accessed July 4, 2002
Okanagan Basin Allocation for Consumptive Purposes.Total allocation = 1.05 billion m3. Number of streams ‘fully recorded’ = 235 of 300.
![Page 18: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
0
5
10
15
880 960 1040 1120 1200mm crop water demand
no. years
/100 y
ears
Average annual crop water demand 1916-2002 1026 1961-90 872 2020's *1015 2050's *1119 2080's *1239 * Estimates CGCM1
Frequency distribution 1916-2002 Centred on estimated 2050’s average
Crop water demand for hypothetical hectare of apple at Summerland, for historical and 2050ʼs scenario climate.
![Page 19: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Costs of Adaptation Options in the Okanagan Cost (CAN$/acre-ft.) Water saved or supplied
Irrigation scheduling: -large holdings $500 10%
-small holdings 835 10%
Trickle irrigation: -high demand areas 1500 30%
-medium demand areas 1666 30%
Metering: -lowest cost 1882 30%
-higher cost 2300-3400 20-30%
Public education: -large & medium communities 835 10%
Leak detection: -average 1567 10-15%
Storage: -lowest cost 600 limited
-medium-high cost 1000-1500 limited
Lake pumping: -lowest cost 648 0-100%
-low cost (no balancing) 1160 0-100%
-higher cost 2200-2700 0-100%
1 acre-ft. = 1233.5 m3; 1 m3 = 1000 litres
![Page 20: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Adaptation is embedded withinthe local context
![Page 21: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Early Adopters Case Studies
• Kelowna—domestic water metering• Vernon – water reclamation program• South East Kelowna Irrigation District
(SEKID) – metering, scheduling andeducational activities for irrigators
• Greater Vernon Water Utility –amalgamation of Armstrong, Vernon,Coldstream & NORD
![Page 22: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Factors that Influence AdaptationDecision Making
• Drivers—population & development pressures, funds orregulations from other levels of government, internalconcerns, etc.
• Enabling factors – staff/management/political interest,previous experience (e.g. pilots), etc.
• Barriers – costs, attitudes, control, acceptance, etc.• Obstacles – attitudes, communication problems, who pays,
etc.• Conflict resolution – education, incentives, scientific
evidence/information, comfortablegovernance/management structure, etc.
![Page 23: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Lessons from Early AdoptersCase Studies
• Signal detection and evaluation (does the‘signal’ mean that there is a ‘problem’?)
• Access to funds• Desire to act; a local champion• Initial conditions (e.g. state of finances,
local awareness)
![Page 24: Powerpoint Presentation: Water managment and climate change … · 2019. 12. 12. · •Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey – Institute for Resources Environment](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052011/6027a30e2ee66765ce050119/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Next Steps?
• Complete crop water demand projections• Focus group sessions to consider potential
adaptation portfolio, and its implementation– Homogeneous groups during fall 2003– Heterogeneous groups during winter 2003-04
• Interim Report available at SDRI-UBC site:http://www.sdri.ubc.ca
• Final report to be released summer 2004