NON-CONFIDENTIAL AND ENTIRELY SHAREABLEPurpose+, Amstel 95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Technology

Visual 59: Technology will shape the 21st century in new ways

Source: Richard Lipsey, Kenneth Carlaw, Clifford Bekhar; Fit for The Future, PwC, (2014), Purpose+ team, Gareth Morgan (Images of Organisations, 1986)

16th & 17th century 18th century 19th century 20th century 21st century

?

Printing Steam engine

Factories

Internal combustion

Iron steamship

Electricity

Railway

Biotechnology

Internet

Lean production

Computer

Mass production

Aeroplane

Automobile

Nanotechnology

Quantum computing

3D printing

Interconnectivity

Neural implants

Artifical IQ

Health tech

Critical inventions over time, including the 21st century

Visual 60: China is leading the dance when it comes to robotization

46,000

6,000

25,000

46,000

160,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

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180,000

United States India Germany South Korea China

Estim

ated

ann

ual s

hipm

ents

of m

ultip

urpo

se in

dust

rial r

obot

s

2014 2015 2016 2019F

Sources: International Federation of Robotics (2016)

Visual 61: GDP per capita and household incomes have de-coupled

0.0

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180.019

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5-01

2015

-01-

01

Rel

ativ

e in

crea

se o

ver t

ime,

198

4 =

100

Real GDP per capita, 1984 = 100 Real median household income, 1984 = 100

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, dataset August 2017

Visual 62: Corporate profits are on the rise

0.0

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Qua

rterly

pro

fits,

in b

illion

s of

USD

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, dataset August 2017 Note: U.S. data

Visual 63: More recent recessions see a slower recovery of jobs

Source: Federal Reserve Bank, author analysis, based on work by www.calculatedriskblog.com

-10000

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-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Job

loss

es/g

ains

, non

-farm

jobs

, per

mon

th, U

.S.

Time in months

1945 recession, 1944 = 0 1953-1954 recession, 1953 = 0 1957-1958 recession, 1957 = 0

1981-1982 recession, 1981 = 0 2001 recession, 2001 = 0 2007-2009 recession, 2007 = 0

* X = 0 means December of previous year is set to 0, e.g. December 1943 for 1944

Visual 64: The smile represents the new ‘high value’ areas

Source: original ‘smile curve’ from Stan Shih (Founder of Acer)

Value add

Value chain

‘Inputs’R&D, Design, Branding

‘Markets’Sales, Advertising, After-sales service

Industrial era

Today

‘Manufacturing’

Sources: OECD Insights – Economic Globalisation: Origins and Consequences; McKinsey, No Ordinary Disruption; The Zero Marginal Cost Society (Jeremy Rifkin, 2014); Rise of the Robots (Martin Ford, 2015)

Visual 65: Time to reach 50M users has dramatically shortened

38

13

43

1 0.750

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Radio TV Ipod Internet Facebook Twitter

Tim

e in

yea

rs

Visual 66: ‘Winner takes all’ models increasingly influence markets

77%

23% Google & FacebookAll others

43%

56%

Amazon

All others

75%

25%Uber

Lyft

Online advertising, U.S.

Online B2C sales, U.S.

Ride-sharing, U.S.

72%

28% Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent

All others

Online advertising, China

Online B2C sales, China

Ride-sharing, China

57%

43% Alibaba

All others

99%

1%

Didi

Others

Sources: Statista, Business Insider, South China Morning Post

Visual 67: Cryptocurrencies are becoming accepted payments

$269,953

$541,722,554

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

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600,000,000

1/3/09 0:00 1/3/10 0:00 1/3/11 0:00 1/3/12 0:00 1/3/13 0:00 1/3/14 0:00 1/3/15 0:00 1/3/16 0:00 1/3/17 0:00

USD

per

day

Total value in USD of trading volume on major bitcoin exchanges, per day

Sources: www.blockchain.info

Visual 68: The value of cryptocurrency coins has yet to stabilize

$13.40$176.50

$4,219.04

0

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e in

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Average market price per bitcoin across major bitcoin exchanges

Sources: www.blockchain.info

Visual 69: Artificial intelligence represents major business opportunity

1,378.19 2,420.364,065.99

6,629.4410,529

16,241.52

24,161.77

34,381.76

46,519.61

59,748.54

0

10,000

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70,000

2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

Expe

cted

reve

nues

in A

I mar

ket,

USD

, in

milli

ons

Sources: forecast by Tractica, Statista

Visual 70: AI will grow to outsmart humans on every dimension

Source: Superintelligence, Nick Bostrom (2014); Whole Brain Emulation, Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)

Speed of computing elements

Speed of communication

Number of computational

elements

Storage capacity

Reliability

Human level intelligence... ...computing power today...

Today’s processors operate at over ~3GHz, already seven orders of magnitude larger. Parallel ’neural network’ computation is on the rise.

Computers can theoretically send signals through photons – reaching the speed of light: 300.000.000m/sec.

Computer hardware is indefinitely scalable. Supercomputers can be warehouse-sized, and are already linked to each other through internet.

Computer RAM can theoretically expand indefinitely, as well as the long term storage capacity.

Biological neurons operate at a peak speed of only ~200Hz; but is compensated by massive parallelizationand energy efficiency of operations.

Biological axons can achieve speeds of 120m/sec through pathways in the human body.

Humans brains are limited by cranial volume and have ~100 billion neurons. But: humans could theoretically be linked to each other.

Human beings can hold no more than 4-5 chunks of information in their working memory. Size of long term memory is estimated to be 10^15 bits*.

Biological neurons are not very reliable when tired. Brains decay after a few decades. Restoring brain tissue is notoriously hard, or even impossible.

Transistors are more reliable than neurons, can be replaced easily and reverse engineered with similar content as previous transistors when damaged.

* Based on a study by Landauer (1986); assumption is ~1 bit per synapse in the brain. Note that the total storage capacity calculated is less than is currently stored on a smartphone. ** For the long term. Short-term, human brains are still superior to computers in at least some aspects.

...and expected winner**

Visual 71: The 21st century may see the rise of ‘superintelligence’

-10

0

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Estim

ated

com

putin

g po

wer

, cal

cula

tions

per

sec

ond

per

1000

USD

One human brain

All human brains

Mouse brain

Insect brain

Computing power

Source: Ray Kurzweill, www.kurzweilai.net, The Singularity is Near (2005)

For more information

• Rens ter Weijde• Mail: rens@purposeplus.com• LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/rensterweijde