pragati issue14 may2008 community ed

8/14/2019 Pragati Issue14 May2008 Community Ed

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ISSN 0973-8460

Towards liberal nationalism


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Contents

PERSPECTIVE

2 Liberals, culture and Ravikiran S Rao nationalism An opportunity exists for a new politics

3 Changing the broken wheel Raj CherubalThe secular-right must champion economic freedom

5 Towards that heaven of Gautam Bastian freedomA free nation of free citizens

7 Out of court Pradhan, Shekhar & AsherCarry on the battle, but respect the courts verdict

FILTER

9 India as a rising great power; climate change and nationalsecurity; India-Iran relations; to the brink; and trade across theLine of Control

IN DEPTH

10 The new currency of power Nitin Pai & Aruna UrsA discussion on strategic affairs with K SubrahmanyamROUNDUP

14 Use the Tibet card Zorawer Daulet SinghTo settle the India-China border dispute

16 Consensus must endure Dinesh WagleMaoists have the upper hand in the construction of the republic

18 Bottom-up dynamics Sushant K SinghWhat attracts Africa to India and how it can be strengthened

19 Pressed by inflation Gulzar NatarajanEasing supply bottlenecks is the right way to go

BOOKS

21 Memories of 1971 Amardeep SinghLife in the time of genocide, war and liberation

PragatiThe Indian National Interest Review

No 14 | May 2008

Published by The Indian National Interest - an independentcommunity of individuals committed to increasing public awareness

and education on strategic affairs, economic policy and governance.

Advisory PanelMukul G Asher

V Anantha NageswaranSameer WagleSameer Jain

Amey V Laud

Editors

Nitin PaiRavikiran S Rao

Editorial SupportPriya Kadam

Chandrachoodan GopalakrishnanAruna Urs

AcknowledgementsC Uday Bhaskar

Alison Domzalski (Cover Photo)Daily News & Analysis

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POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

Liberals, culture and nationalism

An opportunity exists for a new politicsRAVIKIRAN S RAO

THERE IS a great deal of debate among liberalsover whether nationalism is a help or hindrance tothe liberal ideal. And within the nationalist camp,there is a schism over whether liberal nationalism

or cultural nationalism is the choice to make. Thelatter debate misses the point. "Cultural national-ism" has a ring of tautology to it, because it is in-evitable that nationalism has a cultural aspect to it.The former debate too can be resolved if one ac-cepts that liberalism will not succeed without aculture of liberalism.

There are many benefits to sharing a culture.Culture, like language, eases communication.Whether it is the latest cricket news or Tirupatiprasadam that is exchanged between two strangersfrom two ends of the country, in reality, what they

are really exchanging are tokens of trustworthinessand camaraderie.

A shared culture makes it easier to have normsthat act as the mode of default interaction betweencitizens. A trivial example of this is that no onewho walks into a restaurant expects that he canwalk away with the cutlery on which the food isserved. If this shared understanding were notthere, every human interaction would involvesigning of complex contracts and would be medi-ated at the courtroom. The set of shared assump-

tions between people is, of course, what we knowas "culture".

Now, the liberal counterpoint to these argu-ments would be that what unites us also dividesus. While the news of Sachin Tendulkar's century

may bring closer those who are cricket fans, itleaves those who are not out in the cold. In a coun-try as diverse as India, expecting cultural com-monality to be the basis on which citizens buildtheir society is just not practical.It is far better tohave a liberal constitution and liberal laws to bethe basis for nationhood, and leave culture as aprivate matter for citizens.

The problem with this argument is that respectfor the constitution is a matter of culture. The ideathat laws must be adhered to is a culturalnorm.Liberals presumably want a dalit Indian in aremote village to have the same protection frompolice beatings thata middle-class Indian in thecity has. This requires a law against the police

beating up citizens. But a law by itself is not suffi-cient. It needs to be enforced, and enforcement ofthe law requires, not only a cultural norm that

laws must be generally enforced, but also a cul-tural norm that says that all citizens should havethe same protection of the law, just by virtue of

being citizens. This last requires a feeling of com-munity between India's citizens, and that leads us

back to nationalism.The liberal who accepts cultural nationalism in

theory, however, is in for a rude shock when heencounters it in practice. The cultural in-group ofthe typical Indian is not his fellow Indians, butfellow members of his caste. What is worse, thecultural norms of self-governance among Indiansare exceptionally weak.Democracy has not helpedmatters. One would have expected that the experi-ence of democracy meant that Indians would cometo view government as a part of their societyrather than as an external entity, but that has nothappened yet.Indians tend to think of lawsas an

PERSPECTIVE

PRAGATI - THE INDIAN NATIONAL INTEREST REVIEW 2

Photo:JohnHaslam

There is a case for an inclusive,

non-elitist cultural nationalism

that transcends, but does not

displace other cultures.


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imposition to be got around, not as something tobe followed.

This, in a sense, strengthens the liberal case forlimited government. Much of the case for stronggovernment action depends on the potential oflaws turning into social norms. But in a country

where laws do not have such a force, it is hard tosee what more laws will achieve. This alsostrengthens the case for local self-government. Iflaws made by a distant central government arecausing alienation among citizens, then havinglaws made by local authorities, close to theground seems like an obvious cure.

These structural solutions, however are notlikely to be enough. There is still a case for an in-clusive, non-elitist cultural nationalism that tran-scends, but does not displace other cultures.

The original contender for a national culturewas the one that relied on the ideals of the free-dom movement. It was a strong contender, withpotent symbols and a stirring history. It fired upthe imagination of the middle-class immediatelyafter independence. But the awful performance ofthe Indian State has discredited this ideal. The leg-acy of the freedom movement was recklesslysquandered.

As a challenge to this, we have Hindu national-ism. Most critics of Hindu nationalism tend to fo-cus on the "Hindu" aspect, neglecting the fact that

the movement, at its core, is an attempt at nation-alism, rather than an attempt to establish a Hindutheocracy. The attempt involves using the symbolsof Hinduism to act as the basis of nationhood. Ifthis were not so, there would be no other way toexplain how Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, an athe-

ist, could start the Hindu Mahasabha.Unfortunately, this variant of cultural national-

ism serves not to unite, but to divide the country.Instead of inclusive tolerance, it seeks to excludelarge groups of people and seeks to implementhighly sectarian policies. Worse still, the move-ment is not an assertion of a rising India, but moreof a continuation of the same whine. Instead of thesight of a confident people taking charge of thecountry, what we see is a movement feeding fur-ther on the same politics of victimhood.

The challenge for liberals then, is to move be-yond the sterility of policy responses and constructa secular nationalism using as raw material uncon-troversial things that we all can share. Whether itis cricket, films, or festivals, the challenge is toconstruct an inclusive, liberal, cultural national-ism.

Ravikiran S Rao is editor of Pragati and blogs at TheExamined Life (ravikiran.com).


Changing the broken wheel

The secular right must champion economic freedom

RAJ CHERUBAL

WATCHING VIDEOS of William F Buckley Jr'sspeeches, it is easy to understand why he has beencalled the father of modern conservatism and thescourge of liberalism (in the American sense of theterm).

He brought joy, class and mischief to the con-servativemovement. He was a popular host of oneof televisions longest-running programs, FiringLine, a prolific writer of novels and articles, and of

course, the founder of the highly influential maga-zine, The National Review.

With his playful, yet erudite ways he madeconservatism fashionable. Conservatism had taken

a very defensive me-too approach after receiving aseries of body blowsthe Great Depression, thesecond world war, Roosevelt's New Deal and theembarrassment of the excesses of McCarthy's anti-communist campaigns. Mr Buckley provided theintellectual counter-punches that cleared the pathfor future conservative victories, including theReagan and Republican revolutions.

The passage of the Civil Rights bill, opposed by

the conservatives, demolished the Democrats inthe South and made it a stronghold of the right fordecades to come. The victories of Nixon andRea-gan would not have been possible without this

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shift. Across the United States, conservatism,thanks in large part to Mr Buckley, matured andwas ready with an alternative by the time the leftsfollies came home to roost in the 70s and 80s. Bythen, "liberal" had become a term of abuse inAmerica, and only moderate Democrats like Car-

ter and Clinton could win elections.In a roundabout way, he brought about the re-

form and moderation of the left. If this reform hadnot happened, it is questionable if the election vic-tories of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair would have

been possible after the stagnation and near intel-lectual bankruptcy of the left in the wake of the fallof communism. Mr Clinton and Mr Blair recap-tured the middle by moving their parties to theright. They breathed the ideological and politicaloxygen that Mr Buckley and his acolytes had syn-

thesised starting in the 50s and 60s.As Don Martin wrote in the New York Times,Mr Buckley wove the tapestry of what becamethe new American conservatism from libertarianwriters like Max Eastman, free-market economistslike Milton Friedman, traditionalist scholars likeRussell Kirk and anti-Communist writers likeWhittaker Chambers. He argued for a conserva-tism based on the national interest and a highermorality.

Mr Buckley with his unique style and quirksand his brand of conservatismintellectual, opti-

mistic and youthfully rebelliousdid more. Hehelped rid the right of nuts and kooks and shedthe image of conservatism as solely based on hateor belonging to the era of grumpy grandpas. Hemade the right mostly secular, cool and respect-able.

In India, whence will such a force for the goodcome then?

Today, the left in India hides a crisis. Like theright in the United States starting in the 30s, it has

been rendered historically irrelevant. Yet it must

stay profoundly relevant, especially to maintainvibrancy ofIndias democracy. If the leftist move-

ment were a tricycle, the wheel of its economicpolicies has come apart with the collapse of com-munism worldwide, while the other two advo-cacy of political and personal freedomsare func-tioning, albeit in a creaky fashion. With one wheelmissing, unable to come to terms with the loss, it is

going in circles.To confuse issues, the left and right are giant

tents that cover vast expanses ofpolitical views.Anyone, from the unrepentant Stalinist anddreamer of liquidation of the capitalist classes tothe defender of free speech, womens and dalitrights and even the pro-capitalist Communist, isshoved under the left tent. The tent of the right isequally crowded with capitalists, protectors offreedom of religion and speech, religious fanaticsand hate mongers. The secular rightistchampion

of thoughtful, nuanced, muscular and unapolo-getic secularism, free markets, free trade, rule oflaw, limited but effective government and individ-ual rights will feel uncomfortable in this tent.

India is a nation with deep pockets of religiousanimosity and resultant resentments. The secularright has nothing to offer voters who crave sectar-ian competition and promise of a better afterlife.They cannot out-Hindutva or out-Jihad anypracti-tioner of such politics. Add centuries-old casteprejudices to the equation and you get a fortressimpenetrable to the secular right.

Since political inspiration and instructions forthe religious right come from the worlds aboveand beyond, no logic of capitalism and compro-mise of secularism can provide a satisfying alter-native. In fact, capitalism, like secularism, positsthe acceptance of intermingling of races, coloursand humans from across boundaries, all anathemato sectarians.

Such mingling is by and large welcome on theleft, except when they are being disingenuousabout globalisation as just being corporate driven.

Ideas, institutions and even people are expected tocross oceans to break down old orders and barri-ers.

With the failure of an ideology based on collec-tivisation and class envy on the one hand, and the

PERSPECTIVE


The secular right must strengthen

the wheels of political and personal

freedoms. A Buckleyian purge of

peddlers of anachronistic and de-

structive economic ideology, may be

inevitable, necessitated by history.

Photo:Edwardleger


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growing aspirations among the working and thesocially oppressed classes on the other, capitalismfinds acceptance among most, sometimes uncon-sciously, sometimes grudgingly. Also, there isgrowing acceptance among capitalistssometimesdefensive and overly penitentto make capitalism

more inclusive and distributive. Counselling pa-tience and promises of trickle-down may no longer

be unacceptable to either of these groups.The metaphorical tricycle of the left is historys

gift and invitation to the secular right. The secularright must help strengthen the wheels of politicaland personal freedoms. The Buckleyian purge onthe left, of unsavoury peddlers of anachronisticand often destructive economic ideology, may beinevitable, necessitated by history.

But to actually use the tricycle, the secular right

must replace the broken third wheel with that ofeconomic freedom. It must create a politics that

marries the Marxist enthusiasm for grassrootsglobalisation and decentralisation with post crony-capitalist capitalism, based on rule of law, trans-parency and equality of opportunity to participateand compete. It must unite the lefts egalitarianand undeniably romantic notions of equality of all

with the morality of the markets and their abilityto create wealth and demolish poverty and humanmisery. While giving communism a deep burial,capitalism is evolving. To ride the politics of fu-ture, secular right in India must make capitalismrespectable for the poor and make capitalism forthe poor, cool for the rest.

Raj Cherubal is coordinator of Janaagraha in Chennai.His blog is at Liberation Raj (liberationraj.org).


Towards "that heaven of freedom"

A free nation of free citizens

GAUTAM BASTIAN

LIBERALISM AND nationalism have a commonheritage in the 18th and 19th century when theideas of Enlightenment found expression in thepolitics of Europe and later in India. Both ideasarose as a reaction to absolutism and comple-mented each other's rise. In Europe, Guiseppe Gar-ibaldi fought many wars not only to unify hishomeland Italy, but also to help achieve the

national aspirations of other South American andEuropean nations. In India the early nationalism ofRaja Ram Mohan Roy and the Indian NationalCongress was founded on liberal ideas aboutequality before the law and the separation of pow-ers.

The twentieth century saw the two ideas partways. Internationally, the more virulent forms ofnationalism blended with socialism and commu-nism to unleash some of the worst tragedies ofhuman history. Liberalism and democracy became

the preserve of a few countries, many of whommanaged to deliver prosperity to their citizens.

Taken to their extremes liberalism and national-ism are antithetical even inimical ideologies. Thereare however some shared values and synergies

which have seen liberals in India and abroad em-brace nationalistic rhetoric and policies to achievetheir goals.

It is interesting however that liberals do not

agree about what this common ground is. Somepropose that ethno-cultural nations are the onlystable unit of political organisation. While others

believe in the idea of civic nationalism or the prin-

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Photo:SS


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ciple of voluntary association of citizens. Youmight find this confusing, contradictory or evenhypocritical, but this only highlights the pragma-tism of the liberal attitude.

In India, although we have a liberal democracy,the main political actors today all lay claim to na-

tionalism. The early nationalism of the freedommovement was co-opted by Indira Gandhi's Con-gress Party. Nationalism came to mean a paternalstate and blended perfectly with Mrs Gandhi'sversion of socialism. Nationalism, in this newsense, was used to justify an over-stretched stateand became synonymous with a government thatcould not perform its core functions.

The failure and consequent discrediting of thisversion of nationalism gave way to the ugly, ag-gressive and sectarian Hindu nationalism of the

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

This na-tionalism defined itself not by a core, butbywhatit was not. It played the politics of victimisationand hate.

Caught between the two, the liberal nationalistwas lost. While economic liberalism was adopted

by the Hindu right, the liberal and secular nation-alist had the choice between associating with up-holders of hateful views and associating with acamp whose economic views were anathema tohim.

Liberals value rule of law, property rights, tol-

erance and subsidiarity as the bases for society tonegotiate progress. Each of these has importantimplications and together they form the basis ofhuman rights and a substantial part of the inspira-tion behind the Indian constitution. These valueshave an inevitable tension with the nationalistideal.

The principle of subsidiarityholds some prom-ise for the prospect of marrying liberalism to na-tionalism, but only at first glance. Garibaldi theItalian nationalist, wanted every "nation" to haveits own government. Garibaldis nation, how-ever, flies in the face of the concept of India. Hedefined it as a homogeneous community of peoplewho would have a common identity and would becomfortable with self-rule.

Now, liberals are sympathetic to self-determination, but for individuals rather than na-tions. The principle of self-determination, when

applied to geographical entities, has led to highlyilliberal results. It often becomes an excuse forautocrats or terrorists to legitimise their actionstoward securing a personal fief rather than ahomeland for their people.

If Garibaldi's definition of the nation is marriedto the liberal notion of subsidiarity, the resulting

progeny will rebel against all the other principlesof liberalism. It will not lead to rule of law. It willnot protect minorities and will put paid to the vir-tue of tolerance. By increasing the number ofnational borders, it will result in greater protec-tionism and violations of individual rights.

Subsidiarity makes sense only in its pure form,with local governments having considerableautonomy, but constrained by a liberal nationalconstitution.

The liberal vision is an Indian State that servesthe citizens rather than being served by them. It isa secular state that treats all of the nation's citizenswithout prejudice, respecting their individualrights and property. It is a vehicle that facilitatesindependent citizens to achieve their full potential.One simple way of envisioning the liberal state isto see it restricting itself to bare minimum func-tions. Such a state will also be less susceptible tocapture by special interests.

The liberal vision of India is of a free nation offree citizens. This neither requires nor denies theneed for a myth to build a cohesive basis for the

nation. It does, however, looks beyond traditionalgroup identities and recognises the diverse indi-viduals who constitute India.

Gautam Bastian is national co-ordinator of the LiberalYouth Forum of India.

PERSPECTIVE


The liberal vision is of a secular

state that treats all of the na-

tion's citizens without preju-

dice, respecting their individ-ual rights and property.

Are you looking for daily opinions and analysis? Bookmark our website

Read our resident bloggers at http://www.nationalinterest.in


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RESERVATIONS

Out of court

Carry on the battle, but respect the Courts verdictROHIT PRADHAN, SHASHI SHEKHAR & MUKUL G ASHER

The Supreme Court cannot fight the battle for the

people of India

ROHIT PRADHAN: In a judgement which wasnot completely unexpected, the Supreme Courthas upheld reservations for other backward classes(OBCs) in central educational institutions. The

five-judge bench, in four different but concurringverdicts held that:

The 93rd amendment to the constitutiondoes not violate the basic structure of the consti-tution.

The creamy layer must be excluded fromthe ambit of reservations as caste cannot be thesole criterion for determining backwardness.

Reservations should not continue in perpe-tuity and the government may review their ef-fectiveness every five years (Justice ArijitPasayat) or ten years (Chief Justice K G

Balakrishnan). Excluding minority institutions from the

purview of the reservations is not incorrect.The Court refused to offer an opinion on ex-

tending reservations to private institutions as noneof these universities had challenged the impugnedamendment. But Justice Dalveer Bhandari notedthat reservations in private institutions is liable to

be held unconstitutional.The Court has refused to be involved in the

details of the reser-

vation policy asthat is the execu-tives prerogative.Therefore, it re-

jected the peti-tioners argumentthat lack of data ora definitive list ofOBCs by itself viti-ated the govern-ments decision toeffect reservations.Chief JusticeBalakrishnan spe-cifically rejected thestrict scrutiny

test or the suspect legislation test. However,Justice Pasayat allowed for the inclusion or exclu-sion of a specific caste to be challenged in thecourt.

The implications of the court judgement areclear enough. First, the policy of reservations

would continue and may be further expanded tothe private sector. Second, the government is likelyto respect only those parts of the judgementswhich are political expedient: the suggestion for afive year review process will be ignored and at-tempts would be made to subvert the creamy layercriterion. Third, faced with unanimous politicalopinion, the Court is not likely to risk a confronta-tion. An adverse judgement would have beenoverturned by the parliament through anotherconstitutional amendment. The Court has recog-nised this political reality.

The verdict reaffirms the view that the battleagainst the culture of entitlement can only be apolitical battle. It must be fought in the streets ofIndia with a very limited role for judicial chal-lenges.

The war on social justice is not lost

SHASHI SHEKHAR: While this verdict has beenseen as a setback by many, it is actually a blessingin disguise. Consider.

First, a nasty con-

stitutional crisis between the Su-preme Court andParliament wasavoidedSecond, linkingreservations tocaste-based criteriaprevented the im-position of reserva-tions for perpetu-ity. Why? Becauseif economic criteriawere to be the basisfor reservationsthen we would be

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10/24

IISS-Citi India GlobalForumTHE LONDON-BASEDInternational Institute forStrategic Studies (IISS)

held its inaugural confer-ence on India as a RisingGreat Power in NewDelhi last month. A coupleof interesting issues were:

The question iswhether Indias dyna-mism of economic growthis matched by equivalentdynamism in politicalextroversion

Both India and Chinabelieve the next century is

theirs. Can they both beright?

Climate Change andNational Security

THE INDIAN NationalInterest (INI) communitylaunched its policy briefseries with Nitin Paisstudy of the impact ofclimate change on existing

conflicts in the subconti-nent.It interposes the main

climate change mecha-nismsglacial melting,rising sea levels and ex-treme weatherwithconflicts in the region andargues that these couldlead to new conflicts. Mili-tary preparedness wouldneed to take into account a

range of strategic scenar-ios from supporting inter-national co-operation, tomanaging a hot peace,to new wars.

ALSO INDIAs Institutefor Defence Studies andAnalyses (IDSA) organ-ised a workshop on cli-mate change on April16th, 2008 to understandthe geopolitical dimen-sions of climate changeand implications for In-dia

No clear consensusemerged on what issues

needed to be securitisedor whether securitisingthe issue was the rightapproach. It was realisedthat one needs to under-stand the process and notblindly link issues to onlyclimate change.

However there wasconsensus that the follow-ing tasks were necessary:Studies to refine negotia-tion strategies need toconsolidate studies onclimate change (nationalaction plan as being at-tempted by Governmentof India is one that isawaited), migrants, waterresources related studiesand most importantlyresources and environ-mental stresses relatedissues. It was also felt thatthe human security di-mensions of climatechange should also be

examined.

India-Iran relationsIN A policy brief pub-lished by Harvards BelferCenter for Science andInternational Affairs, Ro-nak Desai and XeniaDormandy examine thegrowing warmth in theIndo-Iranian relationshipfrom the American pointof view.

It describes the energysecurity dimension to stra-tegic ties and concludesthat New Delhi is un-likely to totally sacrifice its

energy and strategic inter-ests with Tehran for itsrelationship with Wash-ington. Thus, the UnitedStates should also adopt amore nuanced foreignpolicy towards India.

To The Brink: OperationParakramALEX STOLAR of theStimson Center, has pub-lished a study of the ten-month stand-off betweenIndia and Pakistan trig-gered by an attack on theIndian Parliament by Is-lamic extremists in De-

cember 2001.It includes interviewswith two former membersof Indias Cabinet Com-mittee on Security, BrajeshMishra and JaswantSingh, as well as withother senior Indiannational security officialswho were in office duringthe confrontation.

It draws the followingconclusions :

- Nuclear weapons

might help stabilise anadversarial relationshipbut they certainly do notprevent severe crises thatcan lead to conflict.

- While notions oflimited war are a sta-ple of the deterrenceliterature, carrying out alimited military actionunder the nuclear um-brella entails substantialrisks. Statesmen and

generals consideringlaunching a limitedwar would have to con-sider what factors wouldkeep a limited militaryaction limited, and whatfactors would cause alimited military action toescalate.

- Message manage-ment during a crisis isboth essential and diffi-cult. Disciplined messagemanagement can help

prevent unintended esca-lation during a crisis.National leaders, how-ever, must convey in-formation to multiple

domestic and interna-tional audiences during acrisis, and doing so effec-tively and precisely isextraordinarily challeng-ing.

- Facilitating inter-agency co-operation is avital but complicatedtask for heads of stateand principals in themidst of a crisis. Evenduring the best of times,co-ordinating complexgovernment bureaucra-cies in the formulationand implementation ofpolicy is difficult. Peri-

ods of crisis strain gov-ernment bureaucracies ata time when nimble andco-ordinated responsesto complex challengesare most needed.

Trade across the Line ofControlD SUBA CHANDRAN ofthe Institute of Peace andConflict Studies (IPCS)argues that cross LoCtrade is clearly in Indiasinterests.

He concludes thatwhile it will be an uphillstruggle to convince Paki-stan of a Nathu La likemodel (that opened bor-der trade between Indiaand China) because thequestion is not proceduralbut political. Despite thethaw in relations, Pakistanhas not allowed businessdelegations from

Pakistan-occupiedKashmir to meet theircounterparts in Jammu &Kashmir. He proposes thatsuch meetings be held atneutral venues.

The brief points outthat patience is advisablein the process towardsfreeing up cross-LoC tradeif the negotiations arepurposeful.

Compiled by Vijay Vikram, astudent at the School ofInternational Relations at theUniversity of St. Andrews.

FILTER

9 No 14 | May 2008

A survey of think tanks

We have made changes to the FILTER

This section will now include regular surveys ofstudies, workshops and analysis coming out ofthink tanks. To alert us, email us [email protected]


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INTERVIEW

The new currency of power

A discussion on strategic affairs with K SubrahmanyamNITIN PAI & ARUNA URS

K SUBRAHMANYAMS passion for national in-terests, P R Kumaraswamy writes in the prefaceto Security Beyond Survival, never blinds him toIndias follies. The respect he commands amongstudents of national security is primarily a reflec-tion of his own competence, knowledge and

originality in thinking, to borrow his own wordsalbeit in a different context. In his myriad of rolesas an officer in the Indian Administrative Service,head of a strategic think tank, media commentator,and a prolific writer, he has always exceeded thestandards set by his peers. Last month, Pragati satdown with Mr Subrahmanyam for a wide rangingconversation on the geopolitics of the 21st century,the role of nuclear weapons, Indias national inter-est, military modernisation and much more.

Geopolitical strategy

Many Western strategists contend that Americas uni-

polar moment is giving way to multi-polarity. But you

have argued that the world became multi-polar with the

collapse of Soviet Union. Recently, Parag Khanna put

forward a thesis arguing that US power is on the de-

cline and that the EU and China will be the new poles.

How do you see the future shaping up?

It depends upon the time frame: if you are per-haps talking about next 15 years, Parag Khannahas a point. If you take the 30-40 years, then the

Japanese, Europeans, Chinese and Russians are allgoing to age. The proportion of working popula-tion to non-working population becomes unfa-vourable. This automatically will lead to certainamount of decline. These countries then have torely on migrants. Europeans might get more mi-grants from the southern Mediterranean; Japanperhaps will welcome some from the Philippines.The Chinese are going to face a major problem, asthey will be an ageing society with skewed sexratio. Russia will grapple with the growth of itsIslamic population and decline in the white Rus-sian population.

The only two countries that will be relativelyyoung will be America and India. America willremain young because of immigration. India will

IN DEPTH


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be still behind the ageing curve by about 50 years.All projections are set to change under these cir-cumstances.

During the next two decades, Americans will be looking to augment their brain resources tocompete with China and the EU. India is the natu-ral reservoir for them. This will enhance India-theUS relationship. We dont have any clash ofnational interest with the Americans. There aresome issues that usually arise because of America'sdealings with third parties such as Pakistan. But ata time when the government-to-government rela-tionship was not good, we still saw about two mil-lion Indians settling in America. If things improve,this trend will get stronger.

India has to leverage this situation and changethe US-EU-China triangle into a rectangle. Untilthen it is in our interest to help America to sustainits pre-eminence. After all, in a three-person game,

If America is at Number One, China is at NumberTwo and we are lower down, it is in our best inter-est to ensure that it is America that remains Num-

ber One.

Does the Indian government realise the need to trans-

form its foreign policy in the light of the sharp changes

in Indias geopolitical status over the last two decades?

Is a conscious rethink necessary or will it just happen

by itself.

We have not fully thought through the notionof our foreign policy reflecting our rising status. Ihave said that knowledge is the currency of powerin this centurythat is my own perspective. Thetask force on global strategic developments that Iheaded also points out the same. However, thefinal report is yet to be released by the govern-ment. These ideas are still under development andare yet to be accepted by significant number ofscholars within the country. These changes willtake place over a period of time and we can verywell say that we are in an initial stage of a verylong process.

Nuclear Weapons

Yes, you have argued that warheads and missiles are

not the currency of power in the 21st century: rather it

is knowledge. But strategic weapons are responsible for

stability: in a sense, arent they international public

goods funded by taxpayers of India, China, US and oth-

ers that are enjoyed by the rest of world?

Many people thought that these were publicgoods and perhaps many continue to think so.

This is a very paradoxical situation. I used to ex-plain to people that I myself represent that para-dox. I have been convinced for a long time that anuclear war cannot be fought. In conventionalwarfare, the war takes place in a limited space andvarious key decisions are taken outside that lim-ited space. If a nuclear war is unleashed, there isno space outside. Where and how will one take adecision to terminate this war?

The Americans used to tell me that they havethought through this problem and they claimed to

have found a solution, till of course the early 80s,when scholars like Bruce Blair started asking ques-tions about command and control in a nuclear war.Then in 2005, Robert McNamara confessed that hetoo had been holding on to the same position eversince he was defence secretary (1961-68) but hecould not articulate it as this stance went againstthe entire NATO policy. In a sense, there is a cha-rade about it in the whole world. Kissinger advo-cated the use of tactical nuclear weapons in hisPhD thesis. He, along with a number of formersenior American officials, is now pleading that the

world should eliminate nuclear weapons.While I am convinced that a nuclear war is un-

fightable, as long as the next person is not con-vinced about it, I have to be cautious. The onlyway to persuade others is for us to have a weaponourselves. When I formulated India's nuclear doc-trine, many questioned the need for one as none ofthe five nuclear powers had a doctrine. I believedthat we owed an explanation to the people of Indiaand the world as for a long period of time we hadconsidered nuclear weapons as immoral and ille-

gitimate. The doctrine says: we still consider nu-clear war cannot be fought and use of nuclearweapons is illegitimate and therefore the "no first-use" policy.

But the NATOs doctrine seems to be still living in

1970s.

True, in 1999 when the NATO doctrine was be-ing discussed, the Germans and the Canadianspleaded to include no first-use but the rest of themrefused.

But you cannot eliminate a weapon that is

deemed to be legitimate. The first step towardselimination is to delegitimise the weapons. Thefirst way of delegitimising is to acknowledge thepossession of weapon for deterrence but not for

IN DEPTH

11 No 14 | May 2008

India has to leverage this situation

and change the US-EU-China tri-

angle into a rectangle. Until then

it is in our interest to help Amer-ica to sustain its pre-eminence.


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warfare, that is, a no first-use policy. The 1925 Ge-neva Protocol against chemical weapons did notprohibit possession, it only prohibited the use, orrather, first use. It was only in 1993, 68 years afterthe protocol was signed, that all countries agreedto eliminate these weapons. Therefore the route to

elimination of nuclear weapons is through dele-gitimisation and it starts with "no-first use".

National Interest

How would you define Indias national interest?

First and foremost, the state has to ensure 9-10percent economic growth. Secondly, it has to en-sure that poverty is alleviated and eliminated. Fi-nally, to achieve these two, we need good and ef-fective governance. All these factors are symbioti-cally related and I would consider these as the

most important components of national interest.Once we have achieved this, the Indian entrepre-neurship will ensure India's success.

Doesnt this interpretation contradict Morgen-

thau's. Modern Western Realists define the national

interest as the survival and security of the state.

Morgenthau was writing about developed na-tions. I do not think he was even conscious of pov-erty as an issue. The basic principles of what hewrote are quite good but it needs to be revised un-der present circumstances. He was writing at a

time where forcibly grabbing territory as well asresources was a major factor in the calculations ofnations.

The Marxists criticise the notion of the national

interest, arguing that it is merely an euphemism or

proxy for the interests of the ruling class.

MeaninglessMarxism itself was hijacked byapparatchiks resulting in a Marxist state where the

best cloth from Europe was procured for politburomembers and suits were made by the best tailors.

This was considered a non-elitist policy. Mao Ze-dong imported blue films and it was non-elitist.The problem is that once people are appointed topositions of power, whatever has to be done isdone through them. Whether they have the peo-ple's interest in mind while taking decisions de-pends on their values and beliefs regardless ofwhether it is a Marxist or a non-Marxist state.There is no mechanism by which foreign policieswill be made by the masses. Even in democracies,a party can publish its foreign policy manifesto butthere is no way of ensuring its implementation.

Lessons from national experience

Looking back over the decades, what would you say

were the best and worst moments?

One of the best moments was on 16th Decem-ber 1971, when we achieved success in Bangladeshand the other has to be split into two18th May1974 and 11th May 1998, when we conducted nu-clear tests.

One of the worst moments was on 18th No-vember 1962. I was then working in the defenceministry, when I came to know that Prime MinisterNehru had written to President Kennedy askingfor American aircraft to operate from India soilagainst the Chinese. This was when India itselfhad not even used its own air force. The imposi-tion of emergency on 25th of June 1975 was thesecond worst moment.

What were the learning points from 1962?

It is a learning point in a big sense. We had anarmy whose leadership was immature as they had

been promoted too rapidly. They were incapable of

handling such situations. This was true not only ofmilitary but also of the diplomatic community andto some extent it was true of politicians including

Jawaharlal Nehru. He was persuaded that itwould be either a full-scale war in which caseother major nations were expected to support In-dia or that it would remain as patrol clashes. Thatthe Chinese could calibrate the operation so verycarefully, mainly to humiliate him, and then with-draw, was something that did not occur to him. Itwas a very masterful strategy of the Chinese whotook full advantage of Cuban missile crisis.

Have the lessons been learnt?

No. Take the liberation of Bangladesh as a casestudy. Pakistan held free and fair election in De-cember of 1970 under a mistaken assumption thatnobody would win a clear majority and the armywould still be able to manipulate the country. Iwas convinced that the army would not hand overpower and that we had to be prepared for prob-lems. Then came the hijacking of the Indian air-craft that was blown up in Lahore after which

Pakistani planes were banned from Indian air-space. The Pakistanis started building up troops inBangladesh and the ships were going via Co-lombo. Everybody knew about it. But we didnt do

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The first step towards elimination

is to delegitimise the weapons.

The first way of delegitimising is

to acknowledge they are for deter-rence and not for warfare.


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anything to warn our armed forces to be ready till25th March 1971 when Pakistanis began the crackdown (See page 21). When asked to intervene on30th March, the Indian army requested for moretime. When they got the time that they needed,they did the job beautifully well. But we did not

anticipate this eventuality.Let us take Kargil as another example. In the

Kargil committee report, we have said that theCabinet Committee on Security should have aregular intelligence briefing by the Chairman ofthe Joint Intelligence Committee. But the govern-ment has not accepted this. There is no sensitivityto intelligence in India. The top decision-makersdo not get themselves briefed on the state of af-fairs. They only expect to get an update if some-thing happens. This attitude still persists and this

is a major weakness.The whole attitude to intelligence needs tochange. Professor Manohar Lal Sondhi used to saythat since I was the chairman of the Joint Intelli-gence Committee, I should have nothing to dowith academics! During the second world war, allthe intellectuals were in intelligence. Americanprofessors used to encourage students to join theintelligence community. Even today, I see manyCIA advertisements in university campuses acrossAmerica.

But when I ask people in Jawaharlal Nehru

University to consider a career in intelligence, theysimply refuse. Many consider it unethical.

Military modernisation

In our recent issues, Pragati has focused on the mod-ernisation of Indias armed forces. It is clear that a criti-

cal aspect of national security is suffering from apathy,

and neglect. And procurement scandalswhich get a

lot of media attentionappear to be the tip of the meta-

phorical iceberg. Is there a way out of the mess?

Modernisation is a complex process. I have said

in the Kargil committee report that we have notmodernised decision-making process ever sinceLord Ismay prescribed it in 1947. Our militarycommand and control have not changed since thesecond world war. While we are talking about

buying modern equipment, the force structure andphilosophy go back to the Rommels desert cam-paign and Mountbattens South-east Asia Com-mand. Nobody has done anything about it.

Now there is talk about the Chief of DefenceStaff (CDS) model. It pains me to hear this. TheBritish adopted the CDS system, as they would

never fight a war on their own. CDS is not an insti-tution for us. Ours should be the Chairman of the

Joint Chief of Staffs and theatre commands belowhim.

Apart from that, the entire arms industry isnow getting concentrated. The European arma-ment industry is being brought over by the Ameri-cans. Only the Russian armament industry is in-dependent of that. There is no way that we will beable to produce everything for ourselves. Given

the threats we face, we have to think strategicallyof what we should buy and what we should de-velop. We cant say we are going to buy 126 air-craft and this will not affect our future aircraft de-velopment philosophy. It is going to have a veryserious impact. Instead of buying defence equip-ment ad hoc, on the basis of what is the best avail-able price, we should bear our long-term strategicvision in mind and start expanding the capacity

judicially.The whole problem of procurement is the re-

fusal of the country to accept that the issue is ofpolitical corruption. However perfect the proce-dures are, the corruption takes place outside SouthBlock. Tinkering with procedures will not end cor-ruption. The solution might lie with campaign fi-nance reforms.

Isn't military bureaucracy, like any other bureaucracy,

status quoist and resistant to modernisation?This raises another point. A civil service recruit

becomes a district magistrate in six years and is incharge of a district of a million people but an army

recruit gets independent charge only after 18 yearsof service. Why should it take 18 years for an armyofficer to progress to that level? During the secondworld war, a man with five years experience wasleading a battalion into battle. With eight years ofexperience, one would command a brigade. Thisanomaly has been grossly overlooked.

Isnt there such information asymmetry about these

issues, the public doesnt even know what questions to

ask and politicians have their own agenda? What is the

the way out?It is going to be difficult. At least 30 or 40 years

ago, there was time and inclination among ourmembers of parliament to ask questions and dis-cuss these types of issues. Today very little serious

business is done in parliament. It has become apolitical arena for confrontation among differentpolitical parties. Modernisation does not beginwith procurement of latest equipment. Before thatwe have to think through the structure, organisa-tion and methods of functioning. Equipmentshould come last in the order of priority.

Nitin Pai is editor of Pragati. Aruna Urs works for arisk consultancy.

IN DEPTH

13 No 14 | May 2008


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CHINA

Use the Tibet card

To settle the India-China border disputeZORAWAR DAULET SINGH

RECENTLY, A few Indian commentators have re-

newed calls for New Delhi to re-evaluate its Chinapolicy, and the position to accorded to Tibet in in-teractions with Beijing. At the heart of these argu-ments is that Indias China policy has beentepid, defensive, and excessively cautious,especially when the subject has been Tibet. Theyargue that it is imperative for New Delhi to em-ploy counter-pressure vis--vis Beijing, and Tibetprovides that much needed leverage.

To begin with, New Delhi will need to identifyand link its Tibetan leverage toward some well-

defined Chinese behaviour that it seeks to change,and ensure that this is efficiently communicated toBeijing, lest the entire strategy leads to a furtherdeterioration of the security dilemma on the Hi-malayan frontiers.

Realists will appreciate that India currentlydoes not possess a relative advantage in offensivemilitary capabilities to replay British Indias policythat sought to reconcile the symbolism of Chinassuzerainty over Tibet while simultaneously but-tressing Tibetan autonomy under the cover of Brit-ish power. A coercive strategy would require India

having to bandwagon with an outside big power.Given the cold war history of covert Western activ-ity in the Himalayas, this is an extremely danger-ous proposition and likely to escalate into armed

conflict. Ashok Malik, a perspi-cacious newspaper columnist,states it bluntly: India is not aCentral Asian frontline state, haslimited stakes in Tibet, and, as aconservative regional power,cannot easily welcome adventur-ist scenario-building in its nearneighbourhood. Yet, as BrahmaChellaney, a professor of strate-gic affairs at the Centre for Pol-icy Research, notes: betweenappeasement and confrontationlie a hundred different options.It is vital then that while playingthe Tibet card, India avoids

being perceived by Beijing as anadjunct or partner in US security

policies. Indias new Tibet policy will be have to bebased on a non-coercive strategy that seeks to playon Beijings sensitivity toward its internationalimage and its quest to cultivate the perception ofChina as a responsible status quo actor. In this con-text, legitimacy of Chinas ownership of Tibet isperhaps more important than the number of Peo-ples Liberation Army divisions securing the pla-teau.

But where does India derive its Tibetan lever-age from?

Very simply, the presence of the Dalai Lamaand 120,000 Tibetans on Indian soil provides NewDelhi with a unique (if latent) influence on the af-fairs in Tibet. It is also worth noting that Indias so-called defensive posture and policy on Tibet haslargely been the result of New Delhis attempts toreassure Beijing that India will neither encouragenor condone any Tibetan political activity on In-dian soil. Such a cautious attitude got further en-trenched after the armed conflict of 1962, whichitself partially had its origins in the first Tibetanrevolt of March 1959 that subsequently led to the

flight of the Dalai Lama and Tibetan refugees toIndia.

Over the years, however, India in its quest forconfidence-building and the pursuit of stable rela-

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tions with China, has been unwilling to adjust itsunilateral acquiescence of 1954, which was the firsttime India acknowledged the sovereignty of Chinaover an autonomous Tibet. In fact, Indias policyof unilaterally placating China has over the dec-ades led to a paradoxical situation: the presence of

the Dalai Lama and his fellow migrs on Indiansoil has somehow become a source of weaknessa

burdenin Indias China policy. Beijing has as-tutely perpetuated such a psychological Indiancondition, largely by its policy of repeatedly seek-ing Indias reiteration of its 1954 position and gen-erously receiving it by a variety of political dispen-sations in New Delhi.

Moreover, New Delhi seems to have convinceditself that Indian actions somehow contributed tothe Tibetan problem. But as Nikita Khrushchev

reminded Mao Zedong in an October 1959 encoun-

ter, If you allow him (Dalai Lama) an opportunityto flee to India, then what has Nehru to do with it?We believe that the events in Tibet are the fault ofthe Communist Party of China, not Nehru's fault.In a similar vein, John Garver, a noted Chinascholar, in a recent analysis of Beijings decision togo to war with India in 1962 argues: India becamethe main object of Chinese projection of responsi-

bility for the difficulties that Chinese rule encoun-tered, and in fact Chinese themselves created, inTibet circa 1959. Such a Chinese threat perception(or misperception) continues to this day.

The net resulta potential Indian advantagevis--vis Tibet has been converted into a liabilitythat no policy-maker in New Delhi has been ableor willing to adjust since Indias fatal concession toChina in the 1954 Panchsheel Treaty. It is this ab-

surd situation that some contrarian voices in NewDelhis strategic community are seeking to ad-

justthat while New Delhi has been consistent inits reiteration of Beijings ownership of Tibet, it hasreceived no reciprocal gains from China.

And this brings to the fore perhaps the most

vital question. What does India propose to use itsso-called Tibetan leverage for? Surely not formoral posturing, which some among the civil-political elite seem to relish.

India can link a final and unequivocal legitimi-sation of Chinas sovereignty over Tibet to a set-tlement of border dispute. The logic of Chineseclaims to some of the disputed pockets of territorysouth of the 1914 line stem entirely from historicalTibetan claims. Thus, the centrality of Tibet in the

border dispute cannot be wished away.

Even more specifically, India could use the Ti- bet card to the Tawang tract in ArunachalPradesh, arguably the most contentious pocket inthe eastern sector of the overall border dispute,and a strategically vital location from an Indiansecurity perspective.

Finally, such a strategy does not in any wayimply a reversal of Indias bipartisan China policy,which since the late 1980s has sought to de-couplethe border impasse with progress on other normalinter-state fronts, particularly in the economicsphere. This pragmatic China policy, however,

does not preclude linking Tibet with the resolutionof the overall border dispute.

To be sure, such a Kautilyan strategy wouldrequire a firm, patient and nimble foreign policymachine that enables New Delhi to signal its inten-tions to China. Interestingly, the joint communiqufrom the January 2008 Sino-Indian summit in Bei-

jing did not include a reference to Tibet.India must ensure that it has the institutional

capability and a sustained political will to employthe Tibet card as part of a coherent strategy for

resolving the otherwise intractable border disputewith China.

Zorawar Daulet Singh is an international relations andstrategic affairs analyst based in New Delhi.

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15 No 14 | May 2008

A pragmatic China policy does not

preclude linking Tibet with the

resolution of the overall border

dispute.

Have you tuned in to our podcasts? Listen online or download onto your computer/MP3 player

Specially produced editions and interviews at http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/podcast


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NEPAL

Consensus must endure

Maoists have the upper hand in the construction of the republicDINESH WAGLE

FOR SOME in Nepal, this is the time to reflectupon the past and see what really went wrong. Forothers, it is the time to get ready to face the chal-lenges of the days ahead.

Two of the largest political partiesPrime Min-ister Koiralas Nepali Congress and the moderateCommunist Party of NepalUnited Marxist Lenin-ist (CPN-UML)are reviewing their humiliatingand unexpected defeat in the April 10 polls. Thesurprisingly victorious CPN (Maoist)former re-

bels who signed a peace agreement in 2006 to haltthe decade-long insurgencyis preparing itself toassume the leadership of the next government. Inthe final tally, the Maoists have garnered 220 out of575 seats that were up for grabs. A further 26 seatsof the 601-seat Constituent Assembly will be filled

by the prime ministers appointees, with the con-sensus of the ruling parties.

Though it emerged as the largest party in theassembly, the CPN(Maoist) do not have the major-ity to form the government on its own. There isalso another hurdle: according to the interim con-stitution currently in force, the prime minis-terwho also serves as the acting head of statecan only be replaced by two-thirds majority in theassembly. Thus if a Maoist leader becomes theprime minister, the electoral arithmetic will makeit impossible to replace him.

This is causing a degree of unease among thoseoutside the Maoist camp, especially the NepaliCongress, and foreign powers like the UnitedStates. Thus the question: what if a coalition ofnon-Maoist parties in the assembly form the gov-ernment?

In an op-ed article titled Don't Subvert Man-date, Ameet Dhakal, news editor of the Kath-mandu Post argues that it is foolish to think thatconstitutional technicalities can be manipulated toget around the popular mandate. The Maoistsshould be given the opportunity not only to leadthe government but to lead a sole government.

(sic)"There is also an immense pressure within the

Nepali Congress not to take part in the govern-ment, let alone lead it.

Ordinary Nepalis, however, already think thatthe Maoists are going to lead the government re-gardless of the constitutional technicalities. Themost important question on peoples minds rightnow is: what might the Maoists do after that?Many hope that they will provide lasting peaceand take Nepali society ahead on the road of pros-perity, through what Pushpa Kumar Dahal (orPrachanda as he is more popularly known) callsan "economic miracle". But others are deeply scep-tical about the rebelswho still have their ownarmed militiabeing at the helm of the power inKathmandu.

Will there be a Nepali cultural revolution? Agreat leap forward? These are some of the ques-tions that Maoists themselves are trying very hardto address. But they have shown no sign of suchextremism. Instead, they have made it clear time

and again that they are actually for a mixed econ-omy that encourages public-private partnership.Though they frown at the mere utterance of DengXiaopings name, many people believe that theMaoists would like to follow Dengs path in Ne-pal. Mr Dahal has said in many interviews andpublic speeches that his party would do every-thing to attract foreign investment, foster nationalinvestment and encourage capitalists to earnprofit. "We know what liberalisation and privatisa-tion are" he said after participating in an UN-co-ordinated interaction with foreign donors inKathmandu in late-April, "we are for a mixed andtransitional economy." This meeting followed asimilar interaction of top Maoist leaders with rep-resentatives of the Nepali business community aweek earlier.

The Maoist leadership is attempting to reassurethree constituencies at the same time: first, thenational non-Maoist forces that received almost 70percent of the votes in the recent elections; second,the Nepali business community which was bothterrorised during the insurgency and continues to

face various challenges from Maoist-affiliatedtrade unions; and finally, the international com-munity that remains deeply sceptical about theMaoists plans.

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India has already declared that it is eager towork with the new government regardless of theparty that leads it. In fact, Shiv Shankar Mukher-

jee, the Indian ambassador, (since replaced byRakesh Sood) was the first foreign diplomat to callon Mr Dahal and congratulate him on the victory.

The Maoists have made it clear that they wantthe 1950 India-Nepal treaty of friendshipthatgives India a say in Nepal's internal matters likearms imports from third countriesto bescrapped.

Deep anti-India sentiments abound among theNepali public because issues like reports of borderencroachment by the Indian side and, recently, the

ban on clinker exports to Nepal. Many cement fac-tories are on the verge of closure because of the

ban that, according to Mr Mukherjee, India im-

posed to combat domestic inflation. After itemerged that cement factories were being closed indifferent parts of Nepal, Mr Mukherjee promisedto request the Indian government to make specialprovision for Nepal on this issue.

Then there is the United States that continues toplace the Maoists in its official list of terrorist or-ganisations. But this might change soon. NancyPowell, the US ambassador, was present in the UNco-ordinated donor's interaction with the Maoist

leadership. "She didn't speak," Mr Dahal repliedwhen asked by a reporter if Ms Powell had calledhim a terrorist in the meeting. "She didn't say anynegative thing, she didn't say any positive thing.She just listened. We hope after this interactionAmerica will reconsider its policy and create a fa-vourable environment. We are very much eager toestablish diplomatic relations with the UnitedStates and get their help to build a new Nepal.

As for the two of the largest parties, the ques-tion is what they will do in the coming days.

To join or not to join the Maoist-led government

is the biggest dilemma the parties face at this time.There is overwhelming pressure on both partiesnot to join the government. To yield means to shyaway from the culture of consensus-based politics

that has been the driving factor in the last twoyears. With the success of historic April revolutionin which Maoists and an alliance of seven politicalparties (SPA) came together through a 12-pointagreement, and the successful signing of the peaceagreement, political parties have shown that they

can work together when needed. Many leadersinsist that such mutual understanding and politicsof consensus is needed when the nation startswriting constitution in the coming weeks.

Shankar Pokharel, a UML leader who pulledhis party out of the interim government thismonth echoed this perspective. "We can work withthe Maoists in drafting the constitution, he said."But we can't stay in the government because thepeople's mandate doesnt allow us."

New political forces have emerged in the Terai,

the southern plains bordering India. The Maoistswill have to work with them to secure the smoothwriting of the constitution. The Madhesi Peoples'Rights Forum (MPRF), the biggest regional partyin the Terai, has had a bitter relationship with theMaoists in the past. But both parties have said thatthey must forget the past to come together in fu-ture.

An important issue involves doing away withthe monarchy and sending King Gyanendra out ofthe Narayanhiti Palace to his personal Nirmal Ni-was. The first meeting of the constituent assembly

will have to enact the decision taken earlier by thepolitical parties to turn Nepal into a republic. TheMaoists have indicated that they are working forthe 'graceful exit' of the monarch before the firstsitting to avoid further conflict. But Maoists lead-ers have rejected proposals to leave the king as acultural monarch and have insisted that there isno question of continuing with the king in anyform.

But the most important task in the comingdays, however, is to draft a new constitution for a

federal Nepal. The interim constitution requiresthe constituent assembly to pass articles of the newconstitution with a two-thirds majority. Thismeans that no party can do it alone. The partieshave to come together, hammer out agreementsand work for consensus. The constituent assemblywill have to address some thorny issues with re-gard to the structure of the federation. Will it becaste and ethnicity based? Or will it be based ongeography? The parties have differing views onthe big questions. There is no alternative otherthan to strive for consensus.

Dinesh Wagle is a blogger based in Kathmandu, Nepal.He blogs at United We Blog! (blog.com.np).

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17 No 14 | May 2008

The interim constitution requires

the constituent assembly to pass ar-

ticles of the new constitution with a

two-thirds majority. This means

that no party can do it alone. The

parties have to work for consensus.


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AFRICA

Bottom-up dynamicsWhat attracts Africa to India and how it can be strengthenedSUSHANT K SINGH

THE FIRST India-Africa Forum summit was heldat New Delhi earlier this month. There were sev-eral other events organised on the sidelines of thesummit: a business conclave, the first ever India-Africa editors conference, a seminar of intellectu-als on the India-Africa partnership in the 21st cen-tury, joint performances by Indian and African

cultural troupes and a programme for youth andwomen.The summit, which was a culmination of severallevels of dialogue, is already being considered asuccess in many quarters. It is hoped that theseevents will create an enabling environment forupgrading economic co-operation between Indiaand the countries of Africa.

The events had their share of coverage in themainstream mediaIndian, African and Western.However, the landmark event deserves much

wider appreciation and analysis than provided bythe perfunctory news reports covering the events.

On one hand, Western analysts tend to see allmajor Indian initiatives on Africaincluding thissummitthrough the prism of competition be-tween the burgeoning economies of India andChina. On the other hand, many African commen-tators have warned their own leaders about Indiasintentions in what they have disparagingly la-

belled as the second scramble for Africa.The key drivers for this summit and other In-

dian initiatives on Africa go beyond the traditionalfactors raised by most analysts. It is not limited tocontaining or matching Chinese economic interestsin Africa or answering Indias impending quest forenergy security. Unlike China, India has had a his-torical relationship with the African continent forcenturies, driven by trade with the eastern andsouthern coasts of Africa. The presence of a largeIndian diaspora in Africa for over two centuriesalso provides India with a unique advantage overits Asian neighbour. Indias quest for energy inAfrica is not tightly coupled with the energy secu-

rity policy; rather, it is part of its bid to diversifyenergy sources.

So what was the rationale for the India-Africasummit, if not mimicking the China-Africa summit

last year? It is an obvious indicator of the reneweddrive in the India-Africa story. Current globalequations and recent Indian policies indicate thatIndias engagement with Africa has shifted fromthe old issues of anti-colonialism, non-alignmentand SouthSouth co-operation to issues of tradeand economy.

Ever since Indias economic revival in the mid-nineties, Indias foreign policy has been increas-ingly driven towards finding export markets, at-tracting foreign capital and know-how. This policyshift is echoed across Africa as most of the econo-mies there are going through economic reformsand liberalisation. The Indian stand on the Westernagricultural subsidies at the WTO negotiations has

been in consonance with the views of most Africannations.

The recent improvement in Indias economicrelations with Africa, however, is not solely due tothe Indian governments reinvigorated foreignpolicy. A key factor is the outward-looking attitudeof Indias private sector. Tempted by the easyavailability of capital and driven by the search fornew markets, Indian companies have been eagerlytargeting African markets. The economic boom inIndia and the success of Indian companies inEurope and parts of South America have given

businesses the confidence to venture into Africa.Indian companies increased activities in Africa

have spurred the government to link its diplomacyin the continent more explicitly to its economic

requirements. Thus the Indian engagement reflectsthe private-enterprise led bottom-up approach ofits companies. Indias commercial ties with Africahave grown as the India-Africa trade volume has

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The private sectors interest in Af-

rica has spurred the government to

link its diplomacy more explicitly to

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increased by 285 percent to US$ 25 billion in thelast four years.

People in African countries have a favourableview of Indiain particular, on account of itsdemocratic institutions and the manner of its eco-nomic growth. As a democratic developing coun-

try, India serves as a role model for Africans. It isalso source of support in various grassroots sec-tors, especially agriculture, services and small- andmedium-scale manufacturing. Above all, it is thenew image of Indiathat of a leader in informa-tion technology, biotechnology and telecommuni-cationsthat has increased Indias attractiveness.

For their part, African political leaders wouldlike their constituencies to believe that India andAfrica are making a joint effort to improve thewell-being of their peoples and societies. It is here

that Indias real influence in Africa is likely tomanifest itselffrom its success in achieving sus-

tained economic growth and lifting many out ofpoverty in a democratic, multi-ethnic, post-colonial setting. For their part, Indian governmentofficials would do well to remember that the rightmessage to an external constituency in such anenvironment will be only delivered by a continued

focus on domestic reforms.Indias leadership will be judged by its African

partners on how well India tackles impediments toits economic growth in fields of infrastructure,education, labour and environment. To success-fully engage Africa, therefore, it is imperative thatIndia continues to demonstrate that it is address-ing its own developmental challenges.

Sushant K Singh is a resident commentator at The In-dian National Interest.

ECONOMY

Pressed by inflationEasing supply bottlenecks is the right way to go

GULZAR NATARAJAN

THE SPECTRE of inflation hangs over the globaleconomy, causing alarm across the worlds par-liaments, central banks, board rooms and not least,kitchens. For the week ended March 29th, inflationin India had risen to a 40-month high of 7.41 per-cent, well above the Reserve Bank of Indias (RBI)self-imposed safety threshold of 5 percent. Cou-pled with recent weak industrial growth figures,

this has raised the question of whether the highgrowth rates of recent years will be sustained.The International Monetary Fund's (IMF)

commodity price index shows that since 2005, foodprices are up 65 percent, metal prices 70 percent,and petroleum products 175.7 percent. Over thepast six years, the Goldman Sachs broad commod-ity index jumped by 288 percent, the energy priceindex by 358 percent, the non-energy index by 178percent, the industrial metals index by 263 percentand the agricultural index by 220 percent.

The Indian government has responded with a

slew of regulatory measures like imposing pricecontrols, banning exports, increasing export dutieson steel, lowering or scrapping import duties onrice and edible oils, and prohibiting futures trad-

ing in food-grains. These efforts are based on thefutile assumption that it is possible to insulate theIndian economy from the global trend of ris-ing prices. It fails to acknowledge that the risingprices are a result of global demand-supply mis-match and willpersist till it is bridged. Beyond thepolitical objective of appearing to be doing some-thing, these measures will achieve little.

The current spurt in prices has been caused bya coincidence of factors that include the US con-sumption boom, burgeoning demand from emerg-ing economies like India and China, poor harvestsin major agricultural economies like Australia, di-version of farmland for bio-fuels, declining inven-tories, and falling agriculture investment. Allcountries have been affected and inflation is muchhigher in other developing countries. In China, ittouched an 11-year high of 8.7 percent in February2008. India has probably been spared the brunt ofglobal inflationa list of countries ranked by infla-

tion finds India in the 79th place.Regulatory controls and short-term supply side

measures may ease inflationary pressures slightly,but cannot contain it when global prices are rising.

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It is a moot point as to whether it is possible tocontain inflationary pressures in India, even if thesupply side constraints are removed and there is adomestic surplus. For example, despite surplusiron ore production, domestic prices have morethan doubled in the past year. Measures like low-

ering import duties are likely to be offset by theproducers in exporting countries raising theirprices, capturing the benefits of the lower duties.

That demand side pressures are not drivinginflation is clear from the fact that growth inmoney with the public has declined from an al-ready moderate 17 percent to 14 percent in Febru-ary 2008. RBI figures show that money supplywhich has been growing at 22.2 percent annually isslowing down to an estimated 21.2 percent. Therise in inflation is therefore more due to cost-push

factors.Addressing cost-push inflation with monetarypolicy levers like increases in interest rates and theCash Reserve Ratio (CRR) will not yield resultsand may even backfire. Indian industry, especiallythe debt-dependent small-scale sector and thefinance-driven consumer goods sector, is highlysensitive to interest rates. Any monetary tighten-ing now will squeeze medium-term growth.Though higher interest rates will attract inflows offoreign exchange and make the rupee stronger andhence imports cheaper, they also have the poten-

tial to generate distortions like carry trade andcostlier exports. In addition, the RBI's misplaceddetermination to maintain a weak rupee meansthat it will try to sterilize the inevitable inflows,worsening inflationary pressures.

The primary weapon against cost-push infla-tion is the easing of supply-side bottlenecks likestagnating agricultural production, declining pri-vate capital investments in manufacturing andover-stretched infrastructure. It is impossible forIndia to have inflation-free double digit growth

rates without massive investments in its strained-to-seams infrastructure. Agricultural investments,both physical and those aimed at improving pro-ductivity, have been declining. This is manifestedin the stagnating production, thereby forcing im-ports.

The major hope has to be that a recession in theUnited States and resultant drop in consumptionwill set in motion a chain of events that will bringdown global aggregate demand. The reduced USdemand will immediately translate into a lowerdemand for manufacturing imports from East Asia

and China, and hence for many primary commodi-ties and metals.

Further, beyond the inevitable secondary ef-fects, fears of inflation adversely affecting eco-

nomic growth are largely misplaced. Investmentsin important sectors like infrastructure and realestate have been growing and show no signs ofslackening. Corporate Indias order books areoverflowing, with orders more than doubling be-tween the second and fourth quarter of 2007-08. In

fact, the already committed investments and theprojected expenditures in these sectors shouldprovide more than adequate demand to sustainhigh growth.

The rise in prices of consumer durables andnon-durables is likely to have limited impact ondemand. In a large, nascent and fast growing con-sumer market like India, the demand for suchproducts exhibit inelastic characteristics. The con-sumer base, especially in the villages and smalltowns, is expanding faster than the supply, and

more than off-sets any fall in demand due to highprices. Consumers have also become more value-conscious and less price-sensitive in the rapidlyexpanding mid-priced segment and above. TheSixth Pay Commission largesse, expected to benearly Rs 350 billion and the fiscal concessionsgiven in the recent budget will put more money inthe hands of consumers and thereby increase ag-gregate demand.

A 7-7.5 percent GDP growth rate is a very gooddeal, especially at a time of such tumult in theglobal economy. Given India' severe supply-side

constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks, sustain-ing a growth rate of over 9 percent was impossiblewithout stoking inflation. This slight slowdownwill help prevent over-heating and the consequentfurther build up of inflationary pressures.

It is just as well that we are doing away withthe weekly WPI-based inflation figures, that onlyfueled the scare mongering that grips the mediaregularly. No major economy publishes weeklyinflation figures. A distinction also needs to bemade between headline and core inflation, which

controls for the large fluctuations in specific com-modities.Such times are a strong reminder of the con-

tinuing need to maintain a robust and effectivepublic distribution system and a social safety netthat will help to insulate the poorest of the poorfrom economic volatility. It is also a reiteration ofthe importance of food security and the need tomake investments in agriculture to increase pro-ductivity.

Gulzar Natarajan is a civil servant.

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REVIEW

Memories of 1971

Life in the time of genocide, war and liberation

AMARDEEP SINGH

TAHMIMA ANAMS AGolden Age is a very strongfirst novel, written in a di-rect, natural style and is thefirst novel put out by a ma-

jor Western publisher withBangladesh's war for inde-pendence as its main theme.And for that reason alone, AGolden Age will become thekind of book that is often taught in college classeson "South Asian Literature". The novelist SorayyaKhan did publish a novel called Noor on the sub-

ject of the 1971 war, but Ms Khan's novel was re-leased on a small, niche press, and did not garner awide readership. Among major novelists, the 1971war has not been covered in depth. The war is im-portant in Rohinton Mistry's Such a Long Journey,

but only at a great distance (Mr Mistry's novel isset in Bombay). And a section of Salman Rushdie's Midnight's Children deals with this event, but it

comes near the end of thetext, and Mr Rushdie ad-dresses it in rather lyricaltermsone doesn't reallyget a solid explanation of

how the war started or whatit was about.Here, we do. The centre ofthe novel is, of course, thefamily dramainvolving a

widow named Rehana and her two grown chil-dren, Sohail and Maya. Both of the children arepolitically oriented, and take a strongly pro-Bangla, pro-Sheikh Mujib position on the eventsthat transpired in 1971.

By contrast, their mother Rehana is at first re-luctant to make a commitmentthough the needsof her children soon force her to inject herself intothe conflict. She also begins to come out of hershell emotionally, which is of course what mostreaders want to see.

BOOKS

21 No 14 | May 2008

Review

A Golden Age: A Novel

by Tahmima AnamHarper, 288 pages, 2008

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Here is an early passage in A Golden Age, one ofthe first direct discussions of the political situation:

He'll never make a good husband, she heardMrs Chowdhury say. Too much politics.The comment had stung because it was proba-

bly true. Lately the children had little time foranything but the struggle. It had started whenSohail entered the university. Ever since '48, thePakistani authorities had ruled the eastern wingof the country like a colony. First they tried toforce everyone to speak Urdu instead of Ben-gali. They took the jute money from Bengal andspent it on factories in Karachi and Islamabad.One general after another made promises theyhad no intention of keeping. The Dhaka Uni-versity students had been involved in the pro-tests from the very beginning, so it was no sur-prise Sohail had got caught up, and Maya too.Even Rehana could see the logic; what sense

did it make to have a country in two halves,poised on either side of India like a pair ofhorns?But in 1970, when the cyclone hit, it was as

though everything came into focus. Rehanaremembered the day Sohail and Maya had re-turned from the rescue operation: the red intheir eyes as they told her how they had waitedfor the food trucks to come and watched as thewater rose and the bodies washed up on theshore; how they had realized, with mountingpanic, that the food would wouldn't come be-cause it had never been sent.The next day Maya had joined the Communist

Party.

Clearly from the above, one can see that MsAnam sees the war of liberation firmly from aBangladeshi perspective, where the PakistaniArmy is the villain. (It is hard to disagree: GeneralYahya Khan is thought to have said, "Kill threemillion of them, and the rest will be eating out ofour hands") Operation Searchlightthe brutalmilitary campaign aimed at suppressing the rebel-lious Bengalisis described, as are the attacks on

East Pakistani Hindus. The Indian intervention isseen as a positive development, preventing whatmight have turned into an all-out genocidal sup-pression. (Estimates on the number of Bangla-deshis killed by the Pakistani army in 1971 varyfrom 200,000 to 3,000,000so it seems perfectlyfair to suggest, as Ms Anam does at one point, that

Operation Searchlight was itself an act of genocideagainst the Bangladeshi people.)

Though she is undoubtedly a Bangladeshi par-tisan, Ms Anam treats the gruesome acts of the warfrom a respectful distance; the story is told primar-ily from Rehana's point of view, and as a non-

combatant she wouldn't have seen acts of tortureor rape first-hand (though she does certainly en-counter the results of those barbarities). Here MrAnam made the right choice. Extensively docu-menting the details of what the Pakistani army didin fact do that year would have overwhelmed thenoveland that kind of documentation is, any-way, the job of a historian. One shouldn't think ofA Golden Age as some kind of definitive account of1971, but rather as an accessible, novelistic intro-duction to that story.

One finds some Bengali literary culture alludedto in Ms Anam's novel, but not a huge amount.There are references to Sultana's Dream and thesongs of Tagore, but not Bibhutibhushan Bando-padhyay, Saratchandra Chatterjee, or BankimChandra Chatterjee. But then, though their chil-dren study in the university, the Haque family isnot really a literary family, so extended discourseon the Bengali Renaissance would be out of place.

Friends of this reviewer also found A GoldenAge to be a satisfying read, though some did won-der whether there might be some points of culi-

nary inaccuracy regarding the Bengali dishes de-scribed in the novel. For instance, is it likely thatan upper middle-class Bangladeshi family wouldeat a meal of roast lamb, as the Haque family doearly in the book, before the war starts? In a recentinternet discussion of the novel, some readersspeculated that the choice of this particular dishmight reflect a "Raj holdover" tendency in the cul-tural milieu in which A Golden Age is set, whichmay be true. Others felt roast mutton was a morelikely dish. In any case, Ms Anam's book is par-

ticularly rich with references to Bengali cuisine,which is described using the original Bengaliterms, rather than their English translations.

Amardeep Singh is assistant professor of English at Le-high University. His blog is at amardeepsingh.com

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