precipitation in norway idar barstad uni research – (unicomputing / bjerknes centre for climate
DESCRIPTION
Nesttun, 14th September 2005TRANSCRIPT
Precipitation in Norway
Idar [email protected]
Uni Research – (UniComputing / Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Motivation: Orographic precipitation and climate change
Results from a small-scaled field campaign
Nesttun, 14th September 2005
Return period /-amount for Bergen (daily data)
x
2 months later
10001001
Ret
urn
valu
e (m
m/d
ay)
Return period (years)
14th Nov 2005
Pressure patterns leading up to extreme precipitation
-2 days
-2 days
Cluster #
2
3
Extreme day
Extreme day
(Barstad and Sorteberg, 2012, in prep.)
Mean precipitation Norway – whole year
Sorteberg & Kvamstø, 2008
ARPEGE (HADCM3)ARPEGE (GFDL)
The studyIncreasing demand of products from numerical models of high resolution
Q: Can models deliver what we ask for?
Experimental set-up
Collect precipitation using rain gauges (“tipping” buckets)For 12 weeks 2006 across an island at the west coast of Norway
Run numerical model - WRFV3.3, 9-3-1 km, MYJ, Thompson MP
- spectral nudging (>1000km), 45-15-5 sec time step
Material from a submitted paper (Barstad, 2012 ; QJRMS)
Domain9-3-1 km domain
~500 m peaks
10 kmContours every 50 m
Total precip3 km frontal 3 km convective
Vertically int.water vaporrose
Total precip at 1-km grid
1
10 8 18 92
mod/obs
Precip at high percentiles
OBS
mod
(10min accumulation)
Time-step precOBS
1 km 3 km
(0.2 mm per tip)
Radiosonde info
Shallow convection
Extreme precip cases (q99)
Time-step precOBS
1 km 3 km
WRF and shallow convection
C Vincent (2010)
Zoom in on the convectionIt doesn’t seem to be aswell defined and organizedas suggested by the model
Extreme precipitation – w Norway
Caroletti and Barstad (2009)
A1B scenario – downscalingusing 12 GCM models