predicting crime - cadcorp · predicting crime author: o'hara, ben created date: 1/27/2017...

Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017

Predicting CrimeBen O’Hara

Information Specialist

West Yorkshire Police

ben.o’[email protected]

mailto:ben.o’[email protected]


Burglary Dwellings in Leeds District

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r 0

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r 1

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g 11

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Crimes

Crimes


Predicting Crime


Operation Optimal

• Op Trafford in GMP reduced Burglaries by 38%

• Optimal Forager Theory• A criminal will return to a ‘successful’ area, until something disrupts that

feeling of comfort

• “In domestic burglary, for example, the danger of a further crime is greatest at the home of the original victim and spreads out to some 400 metres, but disappears over 6 weeks to 2 months”Ross & Pease (2007)


Operation Optimal


Patrol Plan


Burglary Dwellings in Leeds District

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Crimes Optimal


Patrolwise

• Developed by UCL

• Python scripts produce a “patrol plan” identifying which streets are at highest risk of crime

• Maps are accessed on mobile devices indicating the areas that should be patrolled & suggested times.


Diffusion


Crime Pattern Theory

Home

Work/School

Friends

Entertainment & Shopping


Betweenness

• We can’t measure which streets a person will use most often

• Betweenness acts as a proxy to identify which streets have the greatest chance of being used for routine travel


Patrol Plans


The current process

• UCL Python script produces Esri Shape File

• Automation scripts1. Upload the data into SQL Database

2. Use GeognoSIS WML to generate an image of each patrol area

3. Send the images via email to the Sgts involved

• Sgts forward the emails on to the officers deployed to those areas


The future process

• UCL Python script produces Esri Shape File

• Automation scripts1. Upload the data into SQL Database

• Sgts deploy officers to a patrol plan

• Officers access Cadcorp Web Map Layers on their mobile phones showing the patrol areas, along with associated intelligence, local points of interest, etc.

• Should they be deployed to an area with poor coverage, the software on the phones will have cached the image, using GeognoSIS WML, along with available intelligence.


Questions?

predicting crime - cadcorp · predicting crime author: o'hara, ben created date: 1/27/2017...

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