Prediction of Homing Pigeon Flight Paths using Gaussian Processes

Richard Mann

Dept. of Mathematics

Uppsala University

Pigeon navigation is interesting!

Pigeons ≈ most other birds (hopefully)

Experimental paradigm shift (GPS)

Data overload calls for new methods

Birds are key ecological indicators due to freedom of movement

High quality movement data

GPS devices accurate to < 5m at 1Hz

Repeated releases (~20) from the same site

Multiple test sites from varying directions

Previously unseen behaviour

Standard model: Map and Compass

Evidence for pilotage in familiar area:

1. Formation of habitual routes2. Loyalty to habitual routes under

compass intervention3. Recapitulation of habitual route

after displacement

Pigeons integrate compass and landmark guidance in familiar area navigation, Biro et al. PNAS (2006)

Familiar route loyalty implies visual pilotage inthe homing pigeon, Biro et al. PNAS (2004)

A model of pigeon flight paths Each flight represents

an imperfect attempt to replicate the underlying memorised route.

The ‘true’ habitual route is never observed

Flights by the same bird are correlated by sharing the same underlying route

Simulated paths

Route Learning <=> Predictability

Predict each path using immediate predecessors

Increasing predictability indicates route learning

MIG (release number = 3) = log2 ( p(x

3 | x

2, x

1) ) - log

2 ( p(x

3) )

e.g.

Identifying landmarks - Concept

Remembering the whole route is HARD

Luckily it is also UNNECESSARY

Choosing the right landmarks

The intended curve is better approximated using the right choice of memorised points

Big

pic

ture

of l

andm

arks

!

Pair-Release Experiments Previously trained birds

released as pairs Conflict between route

loyalty and flocking instinct

Compromise when conflict is small

Splitting or dominance hierarchy when conflict is large

Predicting the transition

Simple mixture model

Simulations reveal transition threshold

From Compromise to Leadership in Pigeon HomingBiro et al, Current Biol. 2006

Tack!

Chris ArmstrongDora BiroRob Freeman*Roman GarnettTim GuilfordJessica MeadeMichael OsborneStephen Roberts

Cris LuengoDaniel StrombomDavid Sumpter

*