predictions idc2013
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3rd PLATFORM predictionsTRANSCRIPT
IDC Predictions 2013
Competing on the 3rd Platform
Steven Frantzen Senior Vice President, EMEA Region
January 2013
Competing on the 3rd Platform
From 2013 through 2020, 90% of
IT industry growth will be driven by
3rd Platform technologies that,
today, represent just 22% of ICT
spending
80% of competitive energy
should be focused on
strengthening 3rd Platform
offerings and capabilities
Outcomes will provide new
challenges and opportunities for
users and redefine their choices
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The Third Platform for IT Industry
Growth & Innovation
#1 – WW IT Growth Modestly Down
Worldwide IT spending
growth in 2013 will be 5.5%
Mobile devices alone will
drive 57% of IT growth
Software, Services
momentum will continue
PCs and Servers will return
to modest growth but from a
smaller base
Downside risks remain
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Mixed Picture in Europe, 2013
4
Software and mobile
devices support some
growth
Infrastructure spending
down
Mobility, network
development and
software demand
benefit Austrian market
Source: IDC, Q1 2013 Blackbook
-3,6%
-2,4%
-1,8%
0,2%
1,1%
1,9%
2,0%
2,4%
2,5%
2,6%
2,8%
2,8%
3,3%
3,3%
3,8%
4,0%
4,1%
-4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0%
Greece
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Ireland
Netherlands
France
Denmark
United Kingdom
Western Europe
Sweden
Finland
Austria
Belgium
Switzerland
Norway
Germany
#2 – Emerging Markets’ Impact Rising
Emerging Markets IT
spending will be up 8.8%
• 34% of WW IT spending, and
51% of worldwide growth
BRIC will grow 12%,
account for 48% of
emerging markets growth
• China growth will dip to 10%
Emerging markets will drive
new designs, leadership
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#3 – Mobile Devices Dominating
Sales of Smart MobileDevices (SMDs) will surge20% to $430 billion• PC sales will grow 1.7%, to
$237 billion
Internet access via SMDswill exceed PC access by2015
Mini tablets will jump from33% to 60% of the tabletmarket• Tipping point in schools’ shift
from textbooks to tablets
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#4 – Mobile Platforms Reckoning
The real “PC vs.
SMD” battle is over
the quest for
developers and apps
A year of reckoning
for Microsoft and RIM
in the mobile app
platform battle
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#5 – Cloud Apps Consolidating, Winning
The SaaS acquisitionspending spree willaccelerate, to $25 billion inthe next 20 months
Cloud services’ capabilitiesand scale are essential tocompeting in the thirdplatform marketplace
SaaS vendors will begin tograb software marketleadership in key marketsand segments
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# 6 – Cloud Platforms Verticalizing
PaaS is now strategic
An explosion in “Industry
PaaS” offerings
• Less than 100 in 2012, will
grow ten-fold by 2016
“Horizontal PaaS” will
become more commoditized
• Adoption of open source
stacks, frameworks and tools
is expanding
• Horizontal PaaS vendors
need to move “up the stack”
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#7 – Data Center Transforming
New technologies, designs
• Converged systems will account
for over 1/3 of enterprise cloud
deployments by 2016
• Software-defined networks will
penetrate 35% of Ethernet
switching in the data center
“Bring Your Own ID (BYOID)”
will bring consumerization to
enterprise security
Service Providers will drive
more IT spend by 2016
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#8 – Industry Solutions Expanding
Spending on Industry-specific solutions will near$100 billion by 2016, up from$65 billion in 2013
Retailers will use 3rd Platformtechnologies to grab $2billion of “showrooming”customer’s sales
Line of business executiveswill be involved with 80% ofIT sales by 2016, decision-makers for 40%
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#9 – Social Proliferating & Sprawling
Social technologies arebecoming embedded in agrowing number ofenterprise apps
Social technologies willdrive M&A, again• Microsoft, Oracle and
Salesforce.com will hunt
• Oracle will do a social “reset”
“Social everything” willcreate an integrationchallenge for enterprise IT
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#10 – Big Data Shifting Focus
The “Digital Universe” willexpand to over 4 zettabytes in2013 • Over 50% growth from 2012 –
and will continue to double
• Increased variety with over 90%of all data unstructured, and fromheterogeneous sources
• Increased data velocity, oftendynamic and changings
The Big Data focus will shift“up the stack”, toward analyticsand discovery,and analytic applications• Spending will reach $10 billion in
2013, over $20 billion by 2016
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1000 Gigabytes = 1 Terabyte ·
1000 Terabytes = 1 Petabyte ·
1000 Petabytes = 1 Exabyte -
1000 Exabytes = 1 Zettabyte
NextGen CIOs will focus on businessservices, analytics and controls
They’ll own the adoption of newbusiness services while ensuringsecurity and a seamless informationarchitecture.
• Chief Information Architect
• Services Sourcing andManagement
• Business Process and ChangeManagement
• Compliance and Risk Management
• Policy Specialist
• Driver of Innovation
Technology remains important, butNextGen CIO may be a non-IT businessexecutive who excels at innovation,communication and change
0% 20% 40% 60%
Strongly Disagree
Disagree
Neither Agree or Disagree
Agree
Strongly Agree
With the increased adoption of cloud services in an
organization, I see the role of CIO transforming to
become Chief Information Architect, where one of the
primarily responsibilities of the CIO is to ensure
information flows between internal systems and
cloud services?
Source: IDC CIO Agenda Survey. November-December, 2011
n= 86
The Extended Enterprise will Define
the NextGen CIO
Essential Guidance The 3rd Platform is now the
“real” IT industry• 80% of competitive energy
should be on this platform
Quickly reaching scale ismandatory• 2013 M&A investments will be
bigger
Platform strategy is essential
Consumerization ispermeating Enterprise IT
New customer types a priority
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