predictive analytics and machine learning 101
TRANSCRIPT
Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning 101Poya Manouchehri@PoyaManouchehri
NEUROMINE
WHAT IS PREDICTION?
WHAT IS LEARNING?
• CONNECTING THE DOTS (INTERPOLATION AND EXTRAPOLATION)
• NOT EXACT• PROCESS• EXPERIMENTATION / TRIAL AND ERROR
WHAT IS INTELLIGENCE?
• LEARNING• REASONING• INSTINCT• HIGHER NATURE
MACHINE LOGIC VS LEARNING
IF TEMPERATURE IS LOWAND IT IS OVERCASTAND IT RAINED YESTERDAYTHEN IT WILL RAIN TODAY
TYPES OF PROBLEMS
REGRESSION AND CLASSIFICATION
ModelIndependent Variable
Dependent Variable
CLUSTERING
MACHINE LEARNING PROCESS
Data(Independent and
Dependant Variables)
Training Model
DECISION TREES
INPUT:• EYES EXIST• NUMBER OF LEGS• FURRINESSOUTPUT:• CAT, PERSON, CHAIR, OTHER
DECISION TREES
SAMPLE DATA:• YES, 4, FURRY CAT• YES, 2, NOT FURRY PERSON• NO, 2, NOT FURRY OTHER• …
4<4 >4
Number of Legs
Other
Furry Not Furry
Cat
Furriness
Chair
Yes
Eyes Exist
No
OtherPerso
n
NEURAL NETWORKS
Neuron
Synapse
Neuron
Neuron
Synapse
NEURAL NETWORKS
Actual
NEURAL NETWORKS – FEATURE DETECTORS
NEURAL NETWORKS - XOR
Input 1 Input 2 Output0 0 00 1 11 0 11 1 0
NEURAL NETWORKS - XOR
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
XOR
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
CHALLENGES – GOOD DATA
• NOT ENOUGH DATA• UNREPRESENTATIVE DATA• NO REAL RELATIONSHIPS IN DATA
CHALLENGES – GENERALISATION
Output
Input
CHALLENGES – LOCAL MINIMA
Error
APPLICATIONS – IMAGE / VOICE RECOGNITION
APPLICATIONS – HEALTH
• DIAGNOSIS (E.G. CANCER)• PATIENT RE-ADMISSION
APPLICATIONS – PERSONALIZATION
• TARGETED MARKETING• RECOMMENDATION• CHURN ANALYSIS• LEAD SCORING
APPLICATIONS – FINANCE
• PAYMENT FRAUD DETECTION• STOCK PRICE PREDICTION• INVENTORY MANAGEMENT• SALES PREDICTION
APPLICATIONS – ANOMALY DETECTION
• DETECTING FAULTY HARDWARE (IN SERVER FARM)• INTRUDER ALERT• SPAM FILTERS
SOFTWARE AND SERVICESOPEN-SOURCE• R PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE• WEKA• ORANGE
COMMERCIAL• MATHEMATICA• MATLAB• SQL SERVER ANALYSIS SERVICES (SSAS)
SOFTWARE AND SERVICESSERVICES• GOOGLE PREDICTION API• AZURE ML• NEUROMINE• BIGML• WISE.IO• ALGORITHMS.IO• INFER.COM...
RESOURCESCOURSERA:• GEOFFREY HINTON - NEURAL NETWORKS FOR MACHINE
LEARNING
DATA SOURCES:• UCI MACHINE LEARNING REPOSITORY• AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS
QUESTIONS