preliminary approach. scenarios with an intensive contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy...

Preliminary approach

Scenarios with an Intensive Contribution of Nuclear Energy

to the World Energy Supply

H.Nifenecker1, D.Heuer1, S.David2, J.M.Loiseaux1, J.M.Martin3, O.Meplan1 ,A.Nuttin1

1Institut des Sciences Nucléaires (IN2P3-CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier) 53 ave. Des Martyrs F38026 Grenoble France

2Institut de Physique Nucléaire d’Orsay, (IN2P3-CNRS, Université Paris XI)BP 1, F-91406 Orsay Cedex, France

3Institut d’Economie et de Politique de l’Energie (CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier) BP47, F38040 Grenoble Cedex 09 France

Global Heating Challenge

(a)

(b)

Models for emission (a) and concentrations of CO2 (b)

Global Warming•Present Emissions : 6GtC•World population: 6 Billions•Emission/capita: 1 Ton C

Max. emission for temperature stabilization: 3GtC

•Objective for 2050•World Population(minimum) : 9 Billions•Emission/capita: 0.33 Ton

Present emissions

•World average: 1 ton C/capita•USA: 6 tons C/capita•Germany : 3.5 tons C/capita•France: 1.9 tons C/capita•China: 0.7 tons C/capita

tCO2/tep (1995)

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

Grè

ce

Dan

emar

k

Irlan

de

Por

tuga

l

Luxe

mbo

urg

Italie

Alle

mag

ne

US

A

GB

Aut

riche

Esp

agne

Pay

s B

as

Japo

n

Fin

land

e

Bel

giqu

e

Can

ada

Fra

nce

Suè

de

tCO

2/t

ep

IIASA-WEC Scenarios

• A: strong growth– A1: Oil – A2: Coal– A3:Gaz

• B: Middle of the road• C: Low energy intensity. High electricity

– C1: Ren.+Gaz– C2: Ren.+Nuclear

World GDP

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1990 2050 A 2050 B 2050 C

Scenarios

Wo

rld

GD

P b

illi

on

$

GDP/capita 1000$

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

PacificOECD

FormerSovietUnion

EasternEurope

LatinAmerica

M. East&N.Africa

Africa Centrallyplanned

Asia

OtherPacificAsia

South Asia

GD

P/C

apit

a 10

00$

1990

2050 A

2050 B

2050 C

Primary energy per fuel MToe

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Coal Oil Nat. Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass(comm)

Biomass(nonc)

Solar Others CO2(MtC)

MT

oe

1990

2050 A1

2050 A2

2050 A3

2050 B

2060 C1

2050 C2

A1 A2 A3 B C1 C2 Reserves 1990

Coal+Lignite 200 275 158 194 125 123 540

Oil 300 260 245 220 180 180 146

Gas 210 211 253 196 181 171 133

Exhaustion of fossile reserves(Gtoe)

Energy Intensities

0,000

0,050

0,100

0,150

0,200

0,250

0,300

0,350

0,400

0,450

0,500

1990 2050 A 2050 B 2050 C

toe/

kilo

$

Nuclear Intensive Scenarios

tCO2/tep (1995)

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

Danem

ark

Irland

e

Portu

gal

Luxe

mbo

urg

Italie

Allem

agne

USA GB

Autric

he

Espag

ne

Pays

Bas

Japo

n

Finlan

de

Belgiqu

e

Canad

a

Franc

e

tCO

2/t

ep

•Minimize use of fossiles for Electricity•« Reasonable » implementation of Nuclear Power

OECD: 85%Transition: 50%China, India, Latin Am.: 30%

2030

3000 GWe Nuclear Power

2050

1st Scenario

•No more use of fossiles for electricity

2nd Scenario

•Generalized use of Electrolytic Hydrogen•Increased share of Electricity:

OECD: 90%Transition: 85%S.E.Asia: 80%Rest of the World: 70%



Manage 235U Reserves

Scenario no coal no gas in 2050

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

MT

ep

, M

TC

1990

2050A2

2050N2 Nuclear

1 3 4 5 6 7IIASA(A2) Nuclear intensive IIASA(A2) Nuclear intensive Hydrogen

Year 2030 2030 2050 2050 2050Population(Millions) 8751 8751 10056 10056 10056GDP(G$) 61597 61597 101519 101519 101519Primary Energy(Mtoe) 18408 18408 24840 24840 24840Primary Electricity(Mtoe) 8060 8021 10231 10231 20154Nuclear(Mtoe) 684 4902 1092 7034 16047Fossil elec. 5894 1638 6409 467 1378Nuclear+renewables 2165 6383 3822 9764 18776% Electricity 43,78 43,78 41,19 41,19 81,14Nuclear %El. 8,49 61,12 10,68 68,75 79,62Renewable% El. 18,38 18,38 26,68 26,68 13,54Fossil elec.% 73,13 20,42 62,64 4,57 6,84Nuclear(Gwe) 376 3387 607 4466 8915Nuclear(% total) 3,72 26,63 4,4 28,32 64,6CO2(Mt C) 11693 8465 16838 12695 5106CO2(Mt C)OECD 3973 1648 4266 2040 746Cumulative tons U nat 1,39E+06 4,10E+06 2,45E+06 1,13E+07 1,64E+07

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Years

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

MT

oe

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

CO

2 M

Tons

equ

ivale

nt

C

Primary EnergyPrimary ElectricityNuclear powerCO2 emissions

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Years

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

CO

2 M

Ton

s eq

uiva

lent

C

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

CO

2 M

Ton

s eq

uiva

lent

C

Nuclear+H2 scenarioscenario A2Nuclear scenario

CO2/GDP

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

2000 A2 2050 A2 2050 N1 2050 N2 2050 C2

T(C

)/10

00$

CO2/primen

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

2000 A2 2050 A2 2050 N1 2050 N2 2050 C2

CO

2 to

n(C

)/T

oe

Gestion of Natural Uranium Reserves

Unat exhaustion

0,00E+00

2,00E+06

4,00E+06

6,00E+06

8,00E+06

1,00E+07

1,20E+07

1,40E+07

1,60E+07

1,80E+07

2050 A2 2050 N1 2050 N2 2050 C2

Cu

mu

late

d U

nat

Mto

ns

Breeding Cycles

U-Pu versus Th-U cycles

•U-PuFast SpectraPu fuel1.2 GWe reactorsSolid fuels1 year cooling25 years doubling time

•Th-UThermal SpectraPu, then 233U fuel1 GWe reactorsMolten Salts fuel10 days fuel cycling25 years doubling time

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Years

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Nu

mbe

r o

f G

we

Total number of GweNumber of Gwe PWRNumber of Gwe fast reactors

Number of Gwe (PWR and FR) as function of time

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Years

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Pu In

vento

ry to

ns

Pu inventorry

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

years

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Nu

mbe

r o

f G

We

totalPWRThPUThU3

Evolution of the number of Gwe for the Th-U cycle

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Years

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

U3

inve

nto

ry to

ns

Evolution of the U3 stockpile

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8IIASA(A2) IIASA(A2) Nuclear intensive IIASA(A2) Nuclear intensive Hydrogen IIASA(C2)

1 Year 2000 2030 2030 2050 2050 2050 20502 Population(Millions) 6168 8751 8751 10056 10056 10056 100563 GDP(G$) 27436 61597 61597 101519 101519 101519 750504 GDP/Capita k$ 4,4 7 7 10,1 10,1 10,1 75 Primary Energy(Mtoe) 10710 18408 18408 24840 24840 24840 142506 Primary Electricity(Mtoe) 4107 8060 8021 10231 10231 20154 65247 Nuclear(Mtoe) 493 684 4902 1092 7034 16047 21638 Fossil elec. 3008 5894 1638 6409 467 1378 9529 Nuclear+renewables 1099 2165 6383 3822 9764 18776 5573

10 % Electricity 38,35 43,78 43,78 41,19 41,19 81,14 45,7911 Nuclear %El. 12 8,49 61,12 10,68 68,75 79,62 33,1512 Renewable% El. 14,75 18,38 18,38 26,68 26,68 13,54 52,2613 Fossil elec.% 73,25 73,13 20,42 62,64 4,57 6,84 14,5814 Nuclear(Gwe) 275 376 3387 607 4466 8915 120215 Nuclear(% total) 4,6 3,72 26,63 4,4 28,32 64,6 15,1816 CO2(Mt C) 6976 11693 8465 16838 12695 5106 511417 Saved CO2 % 27,61 24,61 69,68 69,6318 CO2(Mt C)OECD 3146 3973 1648 4266 2040 74619 Unat tons/year 31690 43983 315142 62414 401957 916951 11536020 Cumulative tons U nat 1,39E+06 4,10E+06 2,45E+06 1,13E+07 1,64E+07 4,31E+06

World total

TABLE 1

preliminary approach. scenarios with an intensive contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy...

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