world energy scenarios 2016 (preliminary)

WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN

Highlights from the Global Scenario Study of the World Energy Council in partnership with PSI

T. Kober, E. Panos :: Energy Economics Group :: Paul Scherrer Institut

Workshop at the 70th semi-annual ETSAP meeting, Madrid, 17.11.16

Energy scenarios of PSI and WEC

2011 2013 2016

Global transport scenarios 2050 World energy scenarios to 2050 World energy scenarios to 2060

http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2011/global-transport-scenarios-2050/

http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2013/world-energy-scenarios-composing-energy-futures-to-2050/

https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2016/world-energy-scenarios-2016-the-grand-transition/




































• The Congress in Istanbul:

More than 9000 participants, including

head of states and CEOs

More than 80 countries represented

PSI present with 3 representatives

World Energy Scenarios 2016 launched at the 23d World Energy Congress in Istanbul

• WEC hosts the World Energy Congress,

enabling dialog among Ministers, CEOs

and industry experts

• It is the world‘s largest energy event

covering all aspects of energy agenda

• So far the congress has been stated in 21

cities in the world

• Evolutions of key scenario drivers are expressed in coherent storylines of future

economic and social developments

• Scenario storylines quantified by PSI using its Global MARKAL Model (GMM)

Scenario quantification framework

Sc

en

ari

o

Population

demographic transitions,

timing

GDP patterns of economic develop-

ment, structural change,

catch-up, dematerialisation

Resource availability

Policies

GMM

Model

Technological

Development uptake / discovery of new

technologies, improvements

to existing

Energy Service

Intensity/Efficiency

Storyline Quantification

Energy system

configuration

Fuel & Technology mix • Final energy consumption

• Primary energy supply

• Electricity generation mix

• etc.

Capacity expansion plan • Upstream sector

• Refineries

• Electricity sector

• Hydrogen production

• etc.

Emission levels

Energy system cost

• Represents in detail the energy system of a region from resource extraction to

energy end uses

• Includes more than 400 technologies with their technical-economic characteristics

• Cost optimization of the energy system over the period of 2010 – 2100

• Non-cost and behavioral assumptions are modeled as side-constraints

Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

• 15 world regions, some of which corresponding to single countries

• Separation criteria of the regions:

Current economic sizes and expected development

Fossil fuel resources

Intra-regional economic/social/cultural integration, geography, political situation

Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

For the World Energy Scenarios aggregated results are reported for the 8 WEC regions

NAM

LAC

(Latin America,

Caribbean)

EUROPE

E-ASIA

(East Asia)

P-ASIA

(South-East

Asia, Pacific)

MENA

AFRICA

C-ASIA

(South-Central

Asia)

Main assumptions of the three WEC scenarios

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

• Open economies

• Affordable energy for all

• Global convergence

• Climate focused policies

• Fragmented economies

• Energy security policies

Goals

Economic growth GDP growth: 3.3% p.a GDP growth: 2.9% p.a

GDP growth: 1.7% p.a

Population Global population reaches 10 billion by 2060

Energy efficiency Increases based on markets Promoted by governments Reflects historical trends

Renewables • Wind & solar supported

• Hydro limited support

Climate change mitigation

policies promote renewables

Energy security policies drive

renewables

Nuclear & CCS Low acceptance by markets

and consumers


policies favor them

Energy security policies drive

nuclear deployment

Unconv. oil & gas Expanded opening of

markets

Regulation (for water use,

market access)

Expanded due to energy

security policies

Electric vehicles R&D on batteries decreases

costs


policies favor them

Not a priority

• Energy consumption in less developed regions doubles from today’s level

• Asia accounts for more than 2/3 of the primary energy growth globally

• The energy demand in emerging regions is sensitive to the scenarios’ assumptions

Volatility on economic conditions, cost of energy and local resource exploration

Regional contribution to primary energy

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

1990 2013 Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Pri

mar

y en

ergy

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

EJ/y

r)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America & Caribbean

South East Asia & Pacific

East Asia

South & Central Asia

North America

Europe

Globally, per capita primary energy consumption peaks before 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

WorldModern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard rock

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy

pe

r ca

pit

a (

GJ/

cap

ita

)

11%

23% 29%

37%

5%

22% 24%

50%

Global primary energy supply

2013 2060

568 EJ 715 EJ 634 EJ 767 EJ

Nuclear Biomass Hydro Other renewable energy

Modern

Jazz

Unfinished

Symphony

Hard

Rock

29%31%

21%19%

Coal Oil Gas Non-fossil energy

5% 10% 2%

1%

7% 16% 3% 10% 13% 20% 4% 13% 9% 11% 3% 7%

29%

31%

21%

19%

17%

28%

24%

30%

• Peaking around 2030

• Shift towards unconventional production (North America) in the medium term

(2030)

• Middle East remains at high level

Oil production

An

nu

al o

il p

rod

uct

ion

(E

J)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Modern Jazz Hard Rock Modern Jazz Hard Rock

2010 2030 2060

unconventional conventional

• Significant production increase in Asia, South America and Africa

• Shift towards unconventional production (North America) in the medium term

(2030)

Natural gas production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Mid

dle

Eas

t, N

ort

h A

fric

a

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Euro

pe

(in

cl. R

uss

ia)

Re

st o

f W

orl

d

Modern Jazz Hard Rock Modern Jazz Hard Rock

2010 2030 2060

unconventional conventional

An

nu

al g

as

pro

du

ctio

n (

EJ)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Modern Jazz UnfinishedSymphony

Hard Rock

2013 2060

PW

h/y

Other

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass (with CCS)

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas (with CCS)

Gas

Oil

Coal (with CCS)

Coal

Global electricity generation

67% 40% 20% 45%

13% 10% 17% 15%

20% 50% 63% 40% Renewable energy

Nuclear energy

Fossil energy

2013

Modern

Jazz

Unfinished

Symphony

Hard

Rock

2060

times

two

Shares of total

generation

In addition to renewable energy - importance of nuclear and CCS in Unfinished Symphony

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

PW

h/y

Coal (with CCS)

Coal

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

PW

h/y

Gas (with CCS)

Gas

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

PW

h/y

Nuclear

Europe

North America


East Asia

Southeast Asia & Pacific

South America


Sub-Saharan Africa

• CCS becomes increasingly important under climate change mitigation ambition

• Maximum annual global CO2 capture: 5 Gt CO2

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)

In total*:

47 Gt

In total*:

89 Gt

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony

*cumulative quantities of CO2 captured for the period until 2060

• In future, capacity additions for renewable energy technology higher than

historic annual capacity additions for fossil fuels

New global capacity investments in the power sector

Ave

rage

an

nu

al n

ew

ca

pa

city

ad

dit

ion

s (G

W/y

r)

N.B. Bars represent cross-scenario averages. Historical data correspond to 2000-2010, except for nuclear energy (1980-1990)

and are assembled from: EPIA (2012), GWEC (2013), IEA-CCS (2012) and Platts (2013).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Co

al

Gas

Nu

clea

r

Win

d

Sola

r

Co

al (

wit

h C

CS)

Co

al

Gas

(w

ith

CC

S)

Gas

Nu

clea

r

Bio

mas

s

Win

d

Sola

r

Historical 2011-2060

Modern Jazz

Unfinished Symphony

Hard Rock

7817

6895

638512611

3049

2488

25462899

Europe

North America


East Asia

Southeast Asia & Pacific

South America


Sub-Saharan Africa

Modern Jazz

Unfinished Symphony

Hard Rock

Coal 3530 1625 4231

Oil 348 265 404

Gas 9836 8114 7631

Nuclear 2287 3535 3212

Hydropower 2775 3385 2737

Biomass 2482 3276 2257

Wind 12175 12943 8808

Solar 7660 10202 6615

Others 858 1343 616

Total 40953 44690 36512

Global cumulative power generation investments (2011-2060, billion USD2010 undiscounted)

Unfinished

Symphony

• Switch from fossil fuel based applications to electricity in particular relevant if

stringent climate targets need to be met

Increasing electrification of the final energy demand

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Sha

re o

f e

lect

rici

ty o

f to

tal f

ina

l en

erg

y d

em

an

d

Global final energy consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

EJ/y

Modern Jazz

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

EJ/y

Unfinished Symphony

Other (e)

Biomass & Biofuels (d)

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal (c)

Fin

al e

ne

rgy

con

sum

pti

on

(E

J/y)

Oil 67%

Gas 7%Biofuels 16%Electricity 8%Others 3%

Oil 92%


Oil 60%


Fuel consumption in transport in 2013 and 2060

2013

108 EJ

Modern

Jazz

144 EJ

Unfinished

Symphony

131 EJ

Hard

Rock

164 EJ

Oil 78%


• Changes in transport starkly reflected in the car fleet

• Fleet grows substantially from 1.1 bn units in 2013, to a range of 2.8-3.0 bn

vehicles globally in 2060 across all three scenarios

• Global car fleet in 2060:

Diversification in the car stock

• Modern Jazz on track for +3oC temperature increase in 2100 from pre-industrial levels

• Unfinished Symphony slightly above +2oC

• Hard Rock on track for 3.5 - 4oC

Global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2)

Hard Rock:

+5% compared to 2014

Modern Jazz:

-28% compared to 2014

Unfinished Symphony:

-61% compared to 2014

• The 2000W society is an environmental vision introduced in 1998 by ETH Zurich

• It pictures the average “First World” citizen reducing its primary energy usage to no

more than 48 kWh per day by the year 2050, without lowering the living standard

Can we achieve the vision of a 2000W society?

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

1970 2000 2030 2060Pri

mar

y e

ne

rgy

con

sum

ptr

ion

in W

att

pe

r ca

pit

a

World Average

Modern Jazz Grand Symphony

Hard Rock 2000 Watt society

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Jazz Symphony Hard Rock

1990 2013 2060

Pri

mar

y e

ne

rgy

con

sum

pti

on

in W

att

pe

r ca

pit

a

«First World» Average

Europe North America

1. Dampened world primary energy growth and a peaking in per capita energy

before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies

and tightening policies

2. Demand for electricity to double to 2060, meeting this demand with cleaner

energy sources requires substantial infrastructure investments and system

integration to deliver benefits to all consumers

3. Wind and solar continue to grow at an unprecedented rate and create new

opportunities and challenges for energy systems

4. Demand peaks for coal and oil may create “Stranded Resources”

5. Transitioning global transport forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome

in order to decarbonise future energy systems

6. 2C climate target will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond

already pledged commitments, and with very high carbon prices

7. Global cooperation, sustainable economic growth, and technology innovation

are needed to balance the Energy Trilemma

Seven key findings

PSI team for World Energy Scenarios 2016 & acknowledgements

Evangelos Panos

Kathrin Volkart

Tom Kober

Stefan Hirschberg

Post-doctoral fellow

- Energy systems analysis with the

Global MARKAL Model (GMM)

- Macro-economic drivers

- Energy technology & resources

- Energy access

- Energy security

PhD researcher

- Energy resources

- Energy systems

analysis

Head Laboratory for Energy

Systems Analysis

- Scientific advise

Head Energy Economics

Group

- PSI project lead

- Energy systems analysis

- Stakeholder involvement

The PSI World Energy Scenario Team is deeply grateful to the Swiss Federal

Office of Energy (BfE) and the Swiss Energy Council for their support. !

Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen

PSI Energy Economics:

www.psi.ch/eem

http://www.psi.ch/eem

world energy scenarios 2016 (preliminary)

Data & Analytics