ELECTION2018

PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTIONAndrés Manuel López Obrador is the virtual winner of the Presidentialelection. This situation would respond to a candidate that was able tocapitalize on the high social discontent and an 18 year political effort. TheAMLO effect is reflected at the national level, since the Coalition that heleads will obtain different strategic positions, such as the Head ofGovernment of Mexico City, 4 governorships, majority in the FederalCongress, majority in more than 15 local congresses, among other localposts.

This electoral process will result in a substantial change in the national political order.

ELECTION 2018

Andrés Manuel López ObradorJuntos Haremos Historia

President-Electvirtual

53.1%

ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADORRESULTS

PARTICIPATION63.4%

November 13, 1953 (64 years). BA in Political Science and PublicAdministration from the National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM).

Founder of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party andvirtual candidate elected to the Presidency by the Coalition Juntos HaremosHistoria, formed by MORENA, the Labor Party (PT) and the Social EncounterParty (PES). He was a presidential candidate in the 2006 and 2012 elections.

Before founding of MORENA (2014) he served as President of the DemocraticRevolution Party (PRD) from 1996 to 1999. He was elected as Head ofGovernment of Mexico City from 2000 to 2005, obtaining 37.5% of the votesin the elections against 24.5% of the second place (Santiago Creel - PAN). Hisadministration was distinguished by the construction of the second floor ofthe Periférico (the most important road in the city); the expansion of socialprograms aimed for single mothers; students, unemployed, rural producers,micro-entrepreneurs, senior-citizens and people with disabilities.

Some social rights were inserted into the Law, among them, the UniversalAlimony Pension for Older Adults, the delivery of school supplies to studentsof public basic education, the Support Program for Persons with Disabilitiesand Comprehensive Care for Single Mothers. The Medical Care and FreeMedicines Program is worth noting, ever since 725 families, who did not havesocial security, were given access to health services. In addition, theAutonomous University of Mexico City was founded.

The management of Mr. López Obrador of Mexico’s City finances obtainedthe maximum positive rating of triple A (Fitch, Moody's and Standard &Poors).

Since the beginning of the 2018 electoral process, he remained at front of allthe electoral polls. The reason is that he was the only candidate who managedto yield the high social discontent, condition that was reflected in a historicalparticipation of voters in his favor.

Total votes: 30, 113, 483

53.1

22.2

16.4

5.2

AMLO ANAYA MEADE BRONCO

12,610,471

30,113,483

9, 289, 853

2,961,732

PRESIDENCY

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

GOVERNMENT PROPOSALS

During his campaign, Andrés Manuel López Obrador presented his Project of Nation 2018-2024, in which, his main proposals to address the main issues of thecountry are detailed.

GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS EDUCATION, VALUES, CULTURE AND SCIENCE

ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT SECURITY

Turn the State into a promoter of the political, economic and socialdevelopment of the country.

Republican Austerity that complements the fight againstcorruption, as main axes of the nation’s project.

True and efficient open government; Reform the Constitution inorder to expand the scope of popular demands.

Reduce the size of the federal administration without sacrificing thequality of government.

Education for everyone; gratuity at all educational levels.

Review the Educational Reform.

Assure admission to every citizen who desires university education.

Inclusive education plan in coordination with: teachers, parents andpedagogues.

Zero debt policy.

Reduce income tax to 20% in the border area.

Autonomy of the Bank of Mexico and macroeconomic equilibrium.

Reorient public spending.

Tax Policy 2019-2024; not increase nor create new taxes in order togenerate macroeconomic stability, with balanced public finances.

Create the Ministry of Public Security and remove the attributionsfrom the Ministry of the Interior.

Public Prosecutors Professionalization.

The security cabinet will be integrated by the Attorney General'sOffice and the Ministry of the Interior, National Defense and theNavy.

Establish a single police command with 32 state corporations

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

GOVERNMENT PROPOSALS

HEALTH SUSTAINABILITY

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTFOREIGN AFFAIRS

Strengthen and expand the public health system (IMSS, ISSSTE,SSA).

Free access to health services and medicines for population withoutsocial security.

Public policies for national production and procurement ofmedicines and vaccines as a national security issue.

Promote the national production of medicines.

Multilateral Foreign Policy; create a new dialogue with NorthAmerica, maintaining cooperation for development.

International collaboration for the fight against tax havens.

Promote the integral development of the areas with the highestmigration rates.

Sign an "Alliance for Progress" with Canada, the US and CentralAmerican countries in order to boost employment.

Enactment of a General Water Law establishing the resource as ahuman right.

National program for climate change adaptation.

Conservation through the sustainable use of biodiversity.

Development of renewable energy sources; hydroelectric, solar andtidal plants.

Development of indigenous communities by conserving theirnatural heritage.

State Social Policy: Address poverty firstly by ensuring income andskills development.

Annually attend 2.6 million young citizens living in vulnerablesituations.

Incorporate physical activity into the citizenship.

Scholarships to young citizen that do not study nor work.

TRANSITION TEAM

Economic Policy

External Affairs

Internal Affairs

Media

Olga Sánchez Cordero

Tatiana Clouthier

Héctor Vasconcelos

Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón

César Yañez Centeno Cabrera

Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced the team that will be in coordination with the current Federal Government for a orderly transition process. Among otherissues, the Transition Team would be in charge of designing the 2019 Economic Package (budget and income).

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

Carlos Manuel Urzúa Macías

Alfonso Romo Garza

Gerardo Esquivel

Arturo Herrera Gutiérrez

NAFTA Negotiator

Jesus Seade Kuri

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

INNER CIRCLE

Alfonso Romo GarzaBusinessman in the area of genetic and transgenic experimentation. Hisprevious projects such as: Grupo Pulsar, Savia, Seminis, Tabamex y GrupoMonterrey, allowed him to came up with Synthetic Genomics, a company incharge of transplant research. He worked with the PAN candidates Vicente Foxand Felipe Calderón, in 2011 he announced his support to López Obrador andlater became the General Coordinator of his Nation Project 2018 – 2024.

Gabriel García HernándezGeneral Secretary of MORENA. He worked in theGovernment of Mexico City with AMLO, asDirector of Acquisitions in the AdministrativeOffice.

Yeidckol Polevnsky

President of the National Chamber of the TransformationIndustry (CANACINTRA) in 2002. She served as a memberof the board of directors of Nacional Financiera (Nafin),the Bank of Foreign Trade (Bancomext) and as Senator ofin the LX and LXI Legislatures. Currently, she is Presidentof the National Regeneration Movement Party(MORENA).

Marcelo EbrardHe started his political career within the PRIunder the leadership of Manuel CamachoSolís. He was a Federal Congressman for thePVEM and candidate for the Head ofGovernment in 2000 for the DemocraticCenter Party, however he declined in favorof AMLO. He served as Head ofGovernment, Minister of Local Security andMinister of Social Development. As Head ofGovernment of Mexico City he had anacceptance level of 80%.

Andrés Manuel López Beltran

Son of Andrés Manuel; BA in PoliticalSciences and Public Administrationfrom UNAM. He is in charge of forming5,600 sectional committees.

Alejandro Esquer Verdugo

Private secretary of AMLO when he was PRD’s

National President and Head of Government of

Mexico City.

Cesar Yañez Centeno CabreraHe was the Social Communication Director duringLópez Obrador’s government in Mexico City. Sincethen he has been in charge of coordinating thepress and he serves as a spokesperson of MORENA.

Tatiana ClouthierDaughter of Manuel Clouthier, presidential candidate of PAN 1988.She has been a Federal Congresswoman, candidate for theMunicipal Presidency of San Pedro Garza García, NL. She wasAMLO’s campaign coordinator.

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

PROPOSED CABINET

Olga Sánchez CorderoInterior

Josefa González BlancoEnvironment

Javier Jiménez EspriúCommunications & Transportation

Luisa María AlcaldeLabor

Jesús Seade KuriNAFTA Negotiator

Irma Sandoval BallesterosTransparency

Carlos Manuel UrzúaFinance & Public Credit

Víctor VillalobosAgriculture

Jorge Alcocer VarelaHealth

Alfonso DurazoSecurity

Alejandra Fausto GuerreroCulture

Guillermo Meyer FalcónUrban Development

María Luisa AlboresSocial Development

Marcelo EbradForeign Affairs

Esteban MoctezumaEducation

Germán Martínez CázaresSocial Security

Miguel Ángel TorrucoTourism

María Elena Álvarez BuyllaScience and Technology

Graciela Márquez ColinEconomy

8

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

KEY DATES

July 1st

Federal Elections2018

August

23 Deadline to grantcertificates to electedfederal representativesand senators

September

1 LXIV Legislature’s Installation

DecemberOctober

8 Deadline for parties tosubmit to the INE theirreport of campaignexpenses.

3 Deadline for the court to

resolve the dispute trialsrelated to representativesand senators election

31 Deadline for the courtto solve the dispute trialsrelated to the presidentialelection

September 15 – October15. Integration ofCommittees in Congress

1 Presidential inauguration.

15 2019 Economic Packagepresentation

31 2019 Economic Packageapproval

Transition process

2019

1 February The President presents the National Public Security Strategy to the Senate.

28 February The President will send the National Development Plan to the House of Representatives for their approval. His deadline is the lastbusiness day in February.

6 Deadline for the court tovalidate the presidentialelection.

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

Political

Govern through executive orders (decrees), in case of not reaching consensus.

Revocation of mandate in the middle of the presidential term; it could provoke political instability, in a context of social polarization.

Mexico is experiencing a crisis of confidence and legitimacy towards the political class and government institutions. The

levels of corruption, impunity and weak rule of law are the main problems that the new Administration must address.

The projected victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has generated uncertainty regarding how he will govern; hence, he has the challenge

of demonstrating the political viability of his project. Among the main questions around AMLO, is the feasibility of including different political

forces into his government, as a means in order to generate trust in various sectors of society, including the economic agents.

Potential style of Government:

Use of public consultations on politicized issues about government actions.

SCENARIOS AND CONSIDERATIONS

SCENARIOS AND CONSIDERATIONS

The Economic Package is expected to have significant adjustments (focus on improving governmental expenditure), seeking to

ensure the proper functioning of government actions.

Regarding trade, it is expected that AMLO’s government will seek continuity of NAFTA and to continue the country’s diversification

policy. The agro-food sector can become a turning point in the negotiations, due to MORENA’s position on food sovereignty.

In the context of low economic growth, high inflation, and international economic pressure (exchange rate and US

interest rates), the new federal government must reinforce the country’s economic policy, generating the necessary

conditions that allow the country to attract greater investment and overall, become a better commercial destination.

According to the Mexican Central Bank (BANXICO), the victory of AMLO will have no significant economic effects in the markets, or in

the currency. The economic impact will depend on the message of the transition team regarding macroeconomic policy.

Potential style of Government:

The structural reforms could have a slow implementation. Fitch Ratings considers a slower implementation of the energy reform; and

a greater state intervention in the market and a potential increase in public spending.

Economic

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

Potential style of Government:

SCENARIOS AND CONSIDERATIONS

ELECTION 2018

PRESIDENCY

Comprehensive policy for the development of vulnerable sector in the south-southeast region.

Surveillance in the exercise of public resources and government actions by civil society organizations.

Potential Increase of social discontent in case of lack of results of the campaign proposals.

Audit and supervision of administrative processes for social programs.

The economic model of the country has not been sufficiently inclusive to achieve better living conditions. The Mexican

society faces important challenges such as insecurity, social decomposition and polarization of political positions. The

social priorities are: education, health services, more and better job opportunities and poverty reduction.

The administration of AMLO is expected prioritize social policy over economic seeking to favor the most disadvantaged sectors.

However, in order to do so, it must address the possible social division that derives from the electoral process.

Social

ELECTIONFEDERAL CONGRESS

The next President will not need to negotiate to approve secondary reforms since

MORENA obtains a majority in both Houses of Congress, since its alliance with the

Labor (PT) and Social Encounter (PES) parties adds to a simple majority, condition that

will facilitate the 2019 Economic Package and other reforms presented by the

Executive. However, the coalition cannot approve Constitutional reforms by itself.

The AMLO effect was also reflected in the integration of the Congress, element that in

turn impeded several independent candidates of achieving a seat in the next

Legislature.

There are national priorities in the public agenda that MORENA should attend from the

Congress. The opposition will have little margin to make counterweights and position

its agenda.

ELECTION 2018

FEDERAL CONGRESS

108

53

204

47

38

21

12

12

5OTROS

Current integration(2015-2018)

House of Representatives

Integration(2018-2021)

302 133 65

83

21

47

185

16

29

2

55

62

* The graphics represent the current seats, highlighting the actors

that changed parliamentary group

ELECTION 2018

FEDERAL CONGRESS

Current integration(2015-2018)

Senate

Integration(2018-2021)

Coalitions

69 37 22

34

55

6

5

OTROS 9

19

23

14

8

6

6

56

5

8

2

* The graphics represent the current seats, highlighting the actors

that changed parliamentary group

ELECTION 2018

CONGRESS

Possible strategic alliances to obtain majority:

Absolute Majority: 251 votes

Qualified Majority: 334 votes

435

Constitutional

Reforms

Secondary

Legislations

349

367

302

106

88

69

Qualified Majority: 85 votes

Absolute Majority: 65 votesSecondary

Legislations

SENATEHOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

August September October

15 Deadline for theconformation ofLegislative Committees inthe Congress

31 Conclusion of theFirst Ordinary Period ofthe LXIV Legislature ofthe Federal Congress**.

1 Beginning of the FirstOrdinary Period of theLXIV Legislature of theFederal Congress.

*According to Article 71 of the Constitution, on the inauguration day of each ordinary session, the President maypresent up to two bills for preferential processing. Each bill must be discussed and voted by the Floor of its Chamber ofOrigin within a maximum period of thirty calendar days.

**According to Article 66 of the Constitution, due to the presidential election, Congress may extend the Ordinary Perioduntil December 31st of that same year, that being the deadline for approval of the 2019 Economic Package.

23 Deadline to grantcertificates to senatorsand elected federalrepresentatives

3 Deadline for the courtto resolve thenonconformity trialsrelated to the election ofrepresentatives andSenators

December

1 Date established forthe President to sendPreferential Bills to theFederal Congress*.

KEY DATES

ELECTION 2018

FEDERAL CONGRESS

STATE

ELECTIONSAt the state level, the trends indicate a substantial change in the balance of power in the governorships. Itis worth noting the rise of MORENA in most of the States, as well as the case of Citizen Movement Party(MC) in Jalisco. It can be noted that the ‘punishment’ vote is also reflected in the local elections.

One of the most relevant findings is that, according to results in 5 entities, MORENA candidates obtainedmore than 40% of the vote in their favor, this occurs in a context of social bitterness and will force greatercommitment in government action.

The political map would be modified in the 32 states, which were historically governed mostly by the PRI and the PAN.

ELECTION 2018

GOVERNORS

In addition to the presidential elections and for the renewal of the Federal Congress, midterm elections were held in 30 entities of the country, in which 8 Governors, 28 LocalCongresses, 1,596 City Councils, 16 City Halls and the Head of Government of Mexico City will be renewed.

8 Governors

1 Head of

Government, Mexico City

387 Local Representatives

(Proportional Representation)

585 Local Deputies

(Relative Majority)

16Town HallsMexico City

1596Municipalities

8 Governors in:• Chiapas• Guanajuato• Jalisco• Morelos• Puebla• Tabasco• Veracruz• Yucatán

This electoral process was characterized by the introduction of the reelection. Depending on the State, local representatives may be re-elected for four or two consecutive terms, whichis equivalent to twelve and six years in office, respectively. The members of the City Councils: Municipal Presidents and Trustees, may be re-elected for an additional period only.

• Baja California• Baja California Sur• Campeche• Chiapas• Coahuila• Ciudad de México• Durango• Guanajuato• Guerrero• Jalisco• Estado de México• Michoacán• Morelos

• Nayarit• Nuevo León• Puebla• Querétaro• San Luis Potosí• Sinaloa• Sonora• Tabasco• Tlaxcala• Veracruz• Yucatán

4 consecutive

2 consecutive periods • Aguascalientes• Chihuahua• Colima• Hidalgo• Oaxaca• Quintana Roo• Tamaulipas• Zacatecas

Re-election for up to four periods:

Re-election for up to two periods:

INTRODUCTION

ELECTION 2018

GOVERNORS

Claudia Sheinbaum PardoCDMX

47%

39.03%

JALISCO

Enrique Alfaro Ramírez

52.45%

MORELOSCuauhtémoc Blanco Bravo

Rutilio Escandón Cadenas

CHIAPAS

39.84%

Adán A. López HernándezTABASCO

64.45%

Mauricio Vila Dosal

39.1%

YUCATÁN

Martha Erika Alonso

38.04%

PUEBLA

VERACRUZ

43.7%

49..48%

GUANAJUATO

Cuitláhuac García Jiménez

Sinhué Rodríguez Vallejo

ELECTED CANDIDATES

ELECTION 2018

GOVERNORS

POLITICAL MAP (LOCAL GOVERNMENT REDISTRIBUTION)

Current Political Map

Currently, the States’ Governments are distributed among thefollowing political forces:

14

4

1

8

1

4

Political Map 2018

According to the election results, the distribution of local governments will be as follows:

States in which will be transition in the partyoccupying the Governorship:

CDMX

CHIAPAS

JALISCO

MORELOS

TABASCO

The party continues in the government in the States ofPUEBLA (PAN) and GUANAJUATO (PAN)

VERACRUZ

YUCATÁN

Party 2015 2018 Dif.

14 12 -2

8 6* -2

0 5 +5

4 5 +1

4 1 -3

0 1 +1

1 0 -1

0 1 +1

Ind 1 1 =

ELECTION 2018

LOCAL CONGRESSES

LOCAL CONGRESSES (ONLY RELATIVEMAJORITY)

Party 2018 Election

19

4

1

1

Divided 2

Preliminary data show a favorable trend for the coalition of MORENA, PES and PT, who would

become the first political force:

• Baja California Sur• Chiapas• Ciudad de México• Colima• Durango• Estado de México• Guerrero• Hidalgo• Michoacán• Morelos

• Oaxaca• Puebla• San Luis Potosí• Sinaloa• Sonora• Tabasco• Tlaxcala• Veracruz• Zacatecas

The coalition formed by PAN, PRD and MC would be the first

political force in:

• Aguascalientes• Guanajuato• Jalisco• Querétaro

• The PRI, PVEM, PANAL Coalition only managesto be the first force in the Yucatan.

• Campeche is divided between MORENA andPRI and Chihuahua is divided betweenMORENA and PAN; PRD, MC Coalition.

• PAN manages to be the first force in NuevoLeón.