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Why Argentina?April 2017
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Argentina has strong fundamentals and solid prospects for sustainable growth
VAST AVAILABILITY OF
NATURAL RESOURCES
• 8th largest country in the world (2.8 Mn km2), with 53% of agricultural land
• 1st exporter of soybean oil, 2nd producer of lemons, 3rd exporter of corn
• Large oil & gas (2nd largest shale gas reservoir), renewable energy (solar and wind), abundant water and mineral resources
NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IMPROVEMENT
• Nationwide road & railroad systems (+35,000 km), 43 ports & 54 airports
• Most ambitious infrastructure plan in Argentina’s history being deployed
• Over USD 100 Bn investment plan in transport, telco, water and sanitation
LARGE AND DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY
• 3rd largest economy in LatAm, GDP 2016 of USD 545 Bn
• 2nd highest GDP per capita in PPP terms in the region, USD 22,500
• ~43 Mn pop (~60% under 35); access to 300 Mn pop in Mercosur
HIGH QUALITY HUMAN CAPITAL
• Educated middle class and qualified labor force
• #1 in Latin America’s Human Development and Education indexes
• 98% literacy rate, ~110,000 higher education graduates per year
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Brazil
3.4%
Peru Colombia
3.9%
5.0%
Chile
2.4%1.9%
Mexico Argentina
8.4%74.9
9.412.5
27.4
Brazil
12.4
1.9
Argentina
9.7
Chile
19.7
3.4
Mexico Peru
8.27.11.5
Colombia
Argentina has potential to capture USD 25 Bn/year+ in Foreign Direct Investment
Argentina has lagged behind its peers in capturing the strong FDI inflow growth in Latin America
Now we have the opportunity to reach the level of FDI correspondent to the size of our economy
Foreign Direct Investment (Avg. USD Bn/Year)
Source: World Bank, IMF
6.0x
2.9x5.8x 6.6x 5.4x
’08 - ’15 FDI/GDP(%, average)
’08-’15’90-’00
Average4.5%
Argentina’s share of regional FDI flows fell from 16% to 4% between the 90s and the last 7 years
To reach the regional average, Argentina needs to capture USD 25 Bn a year in FDI flows
1.4x
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President Macri’s new administration has a clear plan to unveil Argentina’s full potential
2016 Key reforms and initiatives
Removed capital controls and repatriation restrictions Floated exchange rate and recovered monetary reserves Resolved defaulted debt and regained access to financial markets Removed export taxes and import restrictions Introduced Central Bank independence Instituted inflation targeting policy to reach single–digit CPI by 2018 Established 4–year plan to eliminate the primary fiscal deficit New Public–Private Partnerships (PPP) regulatory framework Re–launched the National Statistics Bureau (INDEC) Created the Argentina Investment & Trade Promotion Agency Implemented an unprecedented tax amnesty scheme Government e-platform for tenders and public accounts
Source: World Economic Forum (2015), press releases* JPMorgan, Embi+ 0/30/15 = 591, Embi+ 09/30/16 = 439. **Includes the Federal Government, Buenos Aires Province and corporations
• Country risk declined more than 100bp in 12 months*• Recent public and corporate debt issuances have been oversubscribed by 4-7x**
2017 -2019 National Productivity Plan
COST OF CAPITAL LABOR COSTS
ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE
INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY
EASE OF DOING BUSINESS
INSERTION TO THE WORLD
OPEN COMPETITIONTAX & FISCAL EFFICIENCY
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The time to invest is now as macro indicators are showing improvement with the reforms
Argentine GDP growth is projected to rebound
-2,0%
3,0%
2,5%
3,5%
2013
2015
2021
2018
2017
2016
-2,5%
-3,0%20
19
2020
2014
0,0%
2,4
2,7 2,8
3,3
2,92,8
-1,8
2,3
-2,6
Projected
YoY GDP Growth (constant 2004 prices)
Inflation decreasing to its one-digit target
YoY Consumer Price Change
2016.00000000
023
2017.00000000
023
2018.00000000
023
2019.00000000
023
2020.00000000
023
2021.00000000
023
4.8%4.1%
3.1%2.2%
1.5%0.9%
Strong plan in place to reduce the primary fiscal deficit
USD 51.495
Reserves back to level to pre FX restrictions policiesUSD bn
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2013 2015 2016
20192017 20202016 20212018
5%7%
39%
17%
5%
2018
17%21%
8%
2017
12%12%
2016 2020 20212019
12%
IMF forecast
Central Bank LowCentral Bank High
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The government is implementing agreements to increase productivity in key sectors
Government Private companies Unions
Vaca Muerta• National government guarantees
minimum price for gas• Neuquen province not to increase
taxes and will build infrastructure required for gas exploitation
• Invest minimum of USD 5 Bn in 1st year and USD 15 Bn in following ones
• Productivity improvements (adjustemnts in workers per well, working hours, night shifts, etc.)
Automotive Industry
• Implement new Autoparts Law• Search new markets abroad• Follow-up agreements with Brazil
• Invest USD 5 Bn in next 2 years and increase 40% use of local autoparts
• Reduce absenteism by 3% • Propose improvements in
employee training
Textile & Leather Industries
• Special treatment for industry workers through Repro Express program
• Promote new law to increase formal employment
• Banks: new installment paymet plan for consumers - 3 & 6 month zero interest payments for national products (financing ~400 Mn worth of monthly sales)
• Participation in round tables to work toward approval of new law
Construction• New developer loans at 17% fixed
rate for up to 60 months• State sponsored mortgage credits
and subsidies for first time buyers doubled to USD ~4 Bn
• Municipal and sales tax reduction• Revision of lease law
• New 100k residential units for households with income inferior to 8 times minimum wage with price reduction of ~10% (investment of USD ~10 Bn)
• Improve presenteeism ratios and labor productivity
• Create new training programs
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• Oil & Gas: $25 Bn+ ($20 Bn+ per year)
• Mining: $30 Bn+• Renewable energy: $15 Bn• Hydro power: $10 Bn• Power grid: $5 Bn• Thermal power: $5 Bn • Nuclear power: $3 Bn
$90 Bn+
ENERGY & MINING
• Roads & highways: $55 Bn• Water & sanitation: $22 Bn• Education & health: $20 Bn• Urban mobility: $21 Bn• Freight rail: $16 Bn• Real estate: $5 Bn• Telco networks: $5 Bn• Airports & ports: $3 Bn
$145 Bn+
INFRASTRUCTURE
• Animal protein (beef, pork, poultry): $10 Bn• Irrigation: $8 Bn• Forestry/Pulp: $2.5 Bn• Aquaculture: $1 Bn• Food industrialization:
$0.5 Bn
$20 Bn+
AGRIBUSINESS
• Automotive industry
• Food & Beverage
• Consumer products
• Machinery & Equipment
• Basic materials
$5 Bn+
MANUFACTURE/ INDUSTRIAL
GOODS
• Tourism
• Professional services
• Biotechnology
• Pharma
• Software development
$5 Bn+
VALUE ADDED SERVICES
Argentina offers diverse attractive investment opportunities of more than USD 260 Bn
Note: All values are in USD
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The Agency was created to accelerate the process of reinserting Argentina into the world
Contribute to the creation of quality jobs and sustainable economic development by reinserting Argentina into the world, through investment and tradeM
issio
nAm
bitio
n Investments• Promote investment opportunities of USD 260 Bn• Achieve USD ~25 Bn of FDI per year (4,5%/GDP)
International Trade• Transform SMEs into exporting SMEs• Recover export capacity (from current ~9k to ~15k
companies)
• Become a strategic partner and single point of contact for companies with an interest in investing in Argentina• Unlock SMEs and regional economies potential to enter strategic international markets• Facilitate investment and trade processes and improve business climate• Promote the highest ethical and professional standards, making Argentina a better and more transparent place to
conduct business
Stra
tegi
c go
als
Area
s of
invo
lvem
ent Investments
Provide services to investors along the investment process
International Trade Business Climate Strategic Planning
Support SMEs to transform them into
exporters
Generate favorable business conditions
Define the “North” to insert Argentina into the
world
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8.1
1.34.2
6.6
7.2
7.4
9.5
58.6
Investments announced*
0.32.33.13.4
Investments assisted by the Agency**
41.3
1.34.8
9.0
3.5
Transport & InfrastructureHealth & Profesional Services
AgroindustryRenewable Energy
Consumer Goods & Retail
Power Generation
Telcos, Media & Tech
Financial Services & Real Estate
Industrial Goods
Mining
Oil & Gas
2.64.0
2.31.7
6.3
5.4
5.5
29
40
21
42
54
56
39
11
30
10
18
1734
49
423
271
5319
393
53
13
2
57
Under the current administration, there have been private investment announcements in the media for USD 59 Bn, and the Agency is assisting projects for USD 41 Bn
* From 12/11/15 to 03/31/2017. Includes only projects with a declared monetary amount.** Includes projects already announced and yet not announced but managed by the Agency.
USD billion# Projects
# Projects
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APPENDIX
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Low private and public leverage increase potential for investment and growth
Chile
40%
Japa
n UK67
%65
%
121%
Fran
ce
54%
Chin
a12
5%In
dia
86%
USA
45%
Russ
ia
Germ
any
30%
Colo
mbi
a Pe
ru19
%Ar
genti
na29
%
38%
Braz
il86
%
24%
Chile
18%
UK89
%
Indi
a
Russ
ia43
%
71%
249%
105%
69%
USA
Chin
a
Fran
ce96
%
Japa
n
Colo
mbi
a 51
%
Braz
il
Peru
16%
Arge
ntina
52%
70
%M
exic
o54
%
Germ
any
USA
9%
74% 81
%
Chile
Japa
n10
1%
36%
Braz
il
53%
21%
Colo
mbi
a
Germ
any
Fran
ce UK
55%
Indi
a
7%Ar
genti
na
7%M
exic
o
15%
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, BCRA, IMF
Household Debt - 2014(% of GDP)
Corporate Debt - 2014(% of GDP)
Sovereign Debt - 2015(% of GDP)
Argentine households have significant room to borrow and increase spending
Argentine corporations have the lowest debt to GDP ratio in the world,
increasing opportunity for leverage
The government has ample room to borrow from capital markets to fund
infrastructure projects
Latin America
Emerging Markets
Developed World
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There are a number of public tenders planned in the short term across sectors
Transportation
H1
2017
Nationwide road concessions
Stage 2 Regional Express Railway
San Martín Cargas railway
Passenger rail rolling stock
Buenos Aires Subway construction & renovation
Port of Buenos Aires concessionH2 2
017
and
2018
Federal Infrastructure Energy Real Estate & Tourism
Three waste-to-energy electricity plants in greater
Buenos Aires area
Note: All tender dates are tentative and approximate; includes only selection of opportunities.
Nationwide irrigation systems
Health related public works
Education related public works
“Portezuelo del Viento” multipurpose dam
“Potrero del Clavillo” multipurpose dam
Various real estate projects in Provinces (e.g. North Port Rosario, Mendoza Station)
Housing public works
Cafayate tourism project
Renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, biomass)
Seismic evaluation for offshore O&G
First HV Transmission Grid Tender
Thermal Tender 3GW (high efficiency facilities)
6-8 Vaca Muerta play tenders
Paraná- Santa Fe bridge
Chaco- Corrientes bridge
Agua Negra tunnel
Stage 3 Belgrano Cargas
Urquiza Cargas railway
Construction of aqueducts for the provision of drinking
water
Thermal Tender 2GW (open cycles closure & co-
generation)
Waste-to-energy electricity plants in Buenos Aires city
Various real estate projects in Buenos Aires City (e.g.
Catalinas II multipurpose development, Tiro Federal
innovation park, Youth Olympic Village, Colegiales
Station)
Various real estate projects in Buenos Aires City (e.g.
Huergo and Puerto Madero multipurpose building
spaces, Houssay Square)