The multidimensional interactions between White and Black Swans of

GlobalizationVignes Gopal Krishna

Fast track PhD student & SLAI fellow Department of Economics

Faculty of Economics and AdministrationUniversity of Malaya

Email Address: vignesgopal@yahoo.com

IntroductionSleeping with breaks or without breaks

Mercantilism style or win-win paradigm?

The expansionary path of dual interactions between Yin, Yang, white and black swans has illustrated the gap of divergence between the imaginary visualization and actual presentation of multi-interactivity of reality.

GCI 2013-2014Country Global Competitiveness Index (2013-

2014)Switzerland 1Singapore 2

Japan 9Australia 21Malaysia 24

China 29India 60

Cambodia 88Zambia 93Vietnam 70

* Criteria of evaluation (Labour market efficiency, Scientific productivity, government structure, visibility of interactions and etc)

Source: Global Competitiveness Index Report, 2013-2014

Global Risks Landscape 2013

Higher stagea) Major systematic financial failure b) Diffusion of weapons of mass destructionc) Water supply crisesd) Chronic fiscal imbalances e) Failure of climate change adaptationf) Rising greenhouse emission g) Severe income disparity h) Global governance failurei) Food shortage crises j) Unsustainable population growth

Middle stage a) Unmanageable inflation or deflation b) Vulnerability to pandemics c) Persistent extreme weather d) Cyber attacks e) Mineral resource supply vulnerability f) Unmanaged migration g) Massive data fraud/theft

Embedded versions- Universities/Organizations/Industries

Faculties Departments

ISI publicationsCountry Scientific publications (ISI)

Switzerland 573,910

Singapore 153,563

Japan 2,426,148

Australia 989,456

Malaysia 80,250

China 2,090,264

India 844,966

Cambodia 1,540

Zambia 4,055

Vietnam 16,949

Source: Web of Science, 1986-2013

Flying Geese Paradigm

a view of Japanese scholars upon the technological development in Southeast Asia viewing Japan as a leading power

It was developed in the 1930s, and has gained wider popularity in the 1960s after the author Kaname Akamatsu published his ideas in the journal of Developing Economies

ISI Publications in ASEAN countries

Source : Web of Science , 1980-2013

Duration of publication ASEAN country Number of publication

1980-2013 Malaysia 81,390

1980-2013 Singapore 154,718

1980-2013 Thailand 80,943

1989-2013 Cambodia 1,562

1980-2013 Vietnam 17,170

1990-2013 Myanmar 932

1980-2013 Philippines 17,637

1980-2013 Brunei 1,091

1982-2013 Laos 1,030

1980-2013 Indonesia 19,977

Segregated analysis of scientific publications in Asean countries (Top 10)

Asean countries Article Proceeding Meeting abstract Review Letter Editorial material Note Book review Correction

Malaysia 54,238 20,565 3,244 1,965 1,056 680 593 364 151

Singapore 115,737 24,902 8,205 4,156 2,967 3,091 1,120 1,914 302

Thailand 58,676 12,592 6,945 1,717 1,860 990 713 244 196

Indonesia 14,308 3,100 2,054 417 249 262 204 205 44

Brunei 834 75 39 29 87 12 4 49 5

Cambodia 1,215 64 147 55 61 31 2 10 0

Laos 843 47 54 35 36 16 0 6 2

Myanmar 652 150 62 15 27 10 18 2 5

Philippines 13,319 1,564 1,807 480 171 395 258 328 40

Vietnam 14,306 2,101 768 263 185 137 140 27 53

Higher level of active participators- Higher concentration on articles and proceedings… Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam are actively catching up with

high achievers of scientific productivity

Least concentrated items among Asean countries

Asean countries News item Discussions Book chapterMalaysia 45 0 0Singapore 61 101 104Thailand 37 40 33

Indonesia 18 20 15Brunei 0 0 0

Cambodia 5 0 0Laos 0 0 3

Myanmar 7 0 0Philippines 10 23 27

Vietnam 12 0 0

Planning and Development

Acceptability

Awareness

Priorities

Phase 1

Phase 2

Network strength and coordination

Assessment & Selection Regulation & Monitoring

Sources : Alvarez, et.al (2013), and Author

Internal & External Factors

Origination and Development

Diffusion

Retention

Adoption

Adaptation

Creative Accumulation

a) Power of asymmetric information

b) Participating institutions

c) Articulation of issues

d) Strength of network collaboration

e) Duration of interactions

f) Number of players of complex gaming

g) Fairness of gaming

Sources : Dopfer, et.al (2004), Schumpeter (1934), and Author

Modified version of network trajectory phases of innovation

SNA structure 1(Facebook)

A

1 2

7

6543

9 10

11

12

8

389012061 5636 859 7279

768

17593235

657 74516146

267

Where, A = Facebook1-12 = embedded groups of facebook1= PhD discussion room2= ASEAN University Network 3= Indian Research Scholars Organization 4= ATLAS-ti Researchers Group 5= Research Proposal and Theses 6= Claudia Hunt’s Research and PhD links 7= Analytical Researchers of Ancient Kingdoms, Records and

Relics

8=Writers 9=IPTA-Ipad(&Tablets) for Academician10=Bioinformatics 11=Writers helping writers 12= Virtual Learning Environment

Internal forms of socimetrics = [(L)(I) + (C)(I) + (∑J≈∞ AHA + ∑J≈∞ MRA )I ]/TP X 100where, L = Likes I = Issues (Ordinary, Mediating issues, Critical)AHA = Active Heterogeneous Agents (Students(Degree,

Masters, and PhD)), number of independent and dependent researchers, number of authors/writers, number of contributors, and etc)

MRA = Multiple roles of agents TP = Total Participants

K K

Malaysia = (70-80)%Singapore = (80-82)% Thailand = (76-78)%Vietnam = (10-12)%Indonesia = (50-60%) Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Philippines and Brunei= (10-15)%

Active participating universities a) UM (Malaysia)b) UKM (Malaysia)c) USM (Malaysia) d) UPM (Malaysia)e) UTM (Malaysia) f) Mahidol University (Thailand)g) Ateneo de Manila University (Philippines)h) Universitas Indonesia (Indonesia)i) Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management(Indonesia)j) Vietnamese Teaching Group (Vietnam)k) National University of Singapore (Singapore)

Brain Drain

Top destinations (a) Malaysia (54%) (b) Australia (15%) (c) United States (10%) (d) United Kingdom (5%)

LGBT issues

“Gay people have no one to speak for them in Malaysia. Even Even academic researchers are intimidated by being dependent upon government appointments and funding. Faculty at Malaysian universities are prohibited from engaging in political debates (Williams, 2009, p. 13).”

“Malaysia has no room for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) rights or religious freedom”

(Islamist group Ikatan Muslimin Malaysia)”Singapore specifically has a law that makes

being gay – not being lesbian – but being gay illegal” – Draconian law

(Todd Sears, founder of Out on the Street)

Concept of “return on equality” – LGBT friendly banks. –first LGBT business summit in Asia. – Attendees (Japan, Nepal, China, India, Australia, four CEOS, number of chairmen, businessmen speaking)

Absence of LGBT – Human rights in Asia (Avonius and Kingsbury, 2008)

Cyber security issues

• Singapore’s cyber security laws are robust – no foolproof.

• James Raj Arokiasamy – the moniker(The Messiah)-hacking Ang Mo Kio Town Council's website.

• He was also suspected for the websites of City Harvest Church co-founder, Sun Ho; The Straits Times blog; and the People's Action Party Community Foundation.

* Singapore’s president (Lee Hsien Long) – Asean Cyber Security collaboration.

Singapore’s latest riot

Singapore Little India’s latest riot

“The Little India riot last night was a very grave incident. Several police officers were injured, and vehicles damaged or destroyed. The situation is now under control, and investigations are underway. Whatever events may have sparked the rioting, there is no excuse for such violent, destructive, and criminal behaviour. We will spare no effort to identify the culprits and deal with them with the full force of the law.

I urge all Singaporeans to stay calm. Do send the Police any information, photos or videos of the incident that you may have. I also wish the injured officers a full and speedy recovery”

( By PM (Lee Hsien Loong) in Facebook)

Cost of Riau’s forest fires

2013 United Nations Framework Conference on Climate change (Warsaw)

Indonesia – largest gas emissions through forest clearing and land use change – increase the carbon emissions

Report – estimation on the impact of smoke haze – environment and financial losses.