The Annual National Policy Dialogue19 November 2009

POVERTY MONITORING GROUP

Pluses Minuses

Relatively high growth Slow poverty reduction

A fall in Unemployment Primarily in small informal business with low earnings and productivity. High underemployment

Improved net secondary school enrolment, attendance and literacy (64% in 2001 to 66 % in 2007)

Slight drop in net primary enrolment since 2007. Risk of many youth being left behind

Continued drop in IMR & under-5 mortality

Drop in coverage of DPT-Hb3 (93% in 2004 to 83% in 2007),

Improvement in life expectancy (53 (m )& 56 (w))

High maternal mortality (births taking place at home remain high)

Improved food self-sufficiency. Drop in malnutrition

High prevalence of stunting

Drop in HIV prevalence Downward trend in access to clean and safe water

TANZANIA’S RELATIVE STANDING IN HDI IN KEY AREAS

COMPARISON OF RELATIVE PROGRESS IN HDI

Poverty Line Achievements Targets

2000/01 2007MKUKUTA

(2010)MDG

(2015)Basic Needs Poverty Mainland 35.7 33.6 19.5

Rural 38.7 37.6 24Urban 25.8 24.1 12.9

Food Poverty 18.7 16.6 11

0

5

1015

20

25

3035

40

45

1991/92 2000/01 2007 2015

Year

Pov

erty

inci

denc

e

Actual poverty MDG 1 targetTrendline required to reach MDG

Little change in consumption levels since 2001

Extremely low consumption levels 98% of Tanzanians

consume less than Tsh 30,000 (2001 prices) and Tsh 58,000 in 2007 prices

80% consume less than Tsh 20,000 (38,600 in 2007 prices)

Wealth

Quintile2000/01 2007 % change

Poorest Quintile 3,978 3,895 -2%

2nd 6,551 6,660 2%

3rd 9,163 9,490 4%

4th 12,972 13,635 5%

Least Poor Quintile 26,056 27,836 7%

Tanzania Mainland 9,997 10,470 5%

Caloric intake increased marginally since 2001

25% of the population do not consume enough to carryout even light work

50% do not consume enough to carryout heavy work

 

Stunting (height-for-age below -

2SD)

Underweight (weight-for-age below -

2SD)

Wasting (weight-for-

height below -2SD)

1999 Mainland 44.00% 29.50% 5.30% Urban 26.1 20.7 5.9 Rural 47.8 31.4 5.2

2004/5 Mainland

38.00% 21.90% 2.90%

Urban 26 17.3 2.9 Rural 40.9 23 2.9

Not a famine prone country. Food production can meet the demand (SSR=104%)

But several regions are food insecure: Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Lindi, Manyara, Mara, Mtwara, Shinyanga, Singida and Tabora (Rapid vulnerability survey (2008)

In total 20 districts have been identified as having food shortages in 2007/08, the lowest number since 2002/03

Key issues Underlying factorsHeavy reliance on agriculture for livelihood

75% of the population depends on agriculture. An increasing number of people has to share a smaller pie

Agriculture growth 4.4% during 2000-2008, while population growth over 3% in rural areas

Low productivity (and low income earning potential)

95% of food is grown under traditional rain –fed agriculture. Informal agricultural sector has growth from 37% of GDP to 40% since 1998

Over reliance on primary agriculture (limited or no value addition)

Low fertility soils, minimal use of productive farm inputs, pre- and post harvest crop losses

Weak rural infrastructure (irrigation, roads, electricity, marketing)

Barriers for private investments (business licensing, registration, import/export procedures )

Lack of opportunities elsewhere

Lack of education and skills prevents rural people from moving out agriculture to other lucrative sectors

Limited space for non-farm activities (knowledge, credit, marketing), specially for the poorest

  Income from non-farm self-employment

Quintile 2000/01 2007

% hh mean % hh mean % change

Poorest 36.2 10,853 46.0 10,891 0.4

2nd 43.5 14,662 51.7 22,253 51.8

3rd 43.9 21,912 54.3 43,894 100.3

4th 49.7 34,896 53.9 54,221 55.4

Least Poor 49.5 65,292 48.2 125,135 91.7

Dar es Salaam

46.9 81,850 51.0 108,053 32.0

Other urban 55.4 59,891 46.6 98,063 63.7

Rural 42.3 19,178 52.1 32,305 68.4

Tanzania Mainland

44.6 31,209 50.8 50,999 63.4

Substantial gains in education. But quality of education and lack of skilled workers are becoming constraints High pupil/teacher ratios (54:1)

Negative perception (school is useless/uninteresting, Dar 24%)

Falling cohort completion rate (78% in 2006 to 62.5% in 2008)

One in five pupils not attending school at any given time

Falling transition rate from Standard VII to Form 1 (67.5 % in 2006 to 51.6% in 2008)

Only a quarter of candidates pass basic mathematics at the Form 4 exam

Drop (26%) in the number of grads in technical and vocational education and training (BEST 2009)

WAKE UP and THINK BIG

PRIVATE SECTOR

PUBLIC SECTOR

PPP

Issue Required Policy Actions

Inadequate private investment

Provide an enabling business environment: Remove barriers to private investment (simplifying business licensing, registration, import/export procedures)

Remove controls on ownership rights (land), NTBs such as customs and admin procedures

Address infrastructure issues (e.g. energy and transport)

Develop the financial market and credit culture

Improve quality of labour/public service

Maintain macroeconomic stability

Improve transparency/governance

Issue Required Policy ActionsLow agricultural productivity

Developing markets

Provision of rural infrastructure (irrigation, rural roads, electricity, communications, and marketing facilities)

Provision of farm inputs (fertilizer, credit, seeds)

Address crop losses (storage, transport, packaging)

Promote the use of modern technologyHeavy reliance on agriculture

Promote non-farm activities/value addition

Facilitate migration out of agriculture to other sectors through education, skills development and urban planning

Issue Required Policy Actions

Inadequate access to basic services

Improve access to basic services such as health and education services, water and sanitation

Inadequate social safety nets Targeted social safety nets for the vulnerable

Inadequate attention on cross-cutting issues

Mainstream gender and environment into the national development agenda

High population growth Interventions to reduce fertility rate, education, empowerment of women and effectively implementing the National Population Policy