presentation for investors and shareholders -...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Presentation for Investors and Shareholders
For Third Quarter, 2016
2 November 2016 Zrenjanin
Anton Fedorov
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NIS IN Q3 2016
Exploration and Production
• Estimated increase in reserves in 2016 – 3.7%.
• Kumane – drilling started in August.
• Velebit – drilling of 6 wells completed.
• RAG Kixa-004 – preparatory and major workover for the purpose of extended testing by bottomhole pump is in progress.
• Blocks Ex-7 and Ex-8 – interpretation of new 3D seismic data covering 306 km2 (2014: 70 km2 and 2015: 237 km2) completed. Interpretation results have been integrated into the geological model and resource base estimation.
• Jimbolia-6 – gas flowed; the process of permitting infrastructure set-up continues.
• Turija I – interpretation of 3D seismic data and processing of Turija II 3D seismic data underway.
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NIS IN Q3 2016
Refining
• Implementation of plans to optimise the basket of raw materials (refining of new oil types Kirkuk, Forcados).
• De-preservation and start-up of units of “Small” Atmospheric Distillation and Merox kerosene with a view to increasing the volume of refining and efficiency of production.
• In-line petrol blending project completed.
• Final version of the extended Front End Engineering Design (FEED) for the Delayed Coker Unit (DCU) obtained along with a tendering package (ITB) for auxiliary units. EPCM Contractor selected for the main package – construction of DCU. Long Lead Item (LLI) contracts for the purchase of equipment signed.
• Major overhaul successfully completed in September 2016.
• Heat exchanger Packinox, which will ensure a higher degree of energy efficiency at the Platforming Unit (C-300), put into operation.
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NIS IN Q3 2016
Sales and Distribution
• G-Drive diesel branded fuel starts selling in the Bulgarian market.
• Development plan for the next 3 years made in accordance with a new methodology.
• Stocking up at the warehouses of Sales and Distribution in order to get ready to supply the market with all types of petroleum products during the overhaul of Pancevo Refinery.
• Running marketing campaigns focusing on seasonal agricultural activities, as well as on increasing sales in all categories of retail customers.
• Preparation for the autumn and winter periods, including the creation of a new fuel quality control process.
• Launch of total reconstruction works at FFS Subotica 2.
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NIS IN Q3 2016
Energy
• Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Plant Pančevo
- Tender finished and final commercial negotiations held - Share capital paid by NIS and GEH
• Small power plant Majdan (2.4 MW) ‐ Put into operation on 2 August 2016
• Small power plant Novo Miloševo (9.8 MW)
‐ Technical Terms of Reference for the preparation of the Feasibility Study with Conceptual Design defined and the study analyser determined (NTC)
‐ PE Srbijagas agreed with the preparation of documentation and approved the participation of MSK Kikinda
‐ Messer’s offer for the construction of bottomhole gas treatment unit received
• CNG filling stations ‐ CNG Čačak 1 – put into operation on 29.7.2016 ‐ CNG Žarkovo 2 – project approved at the IC of the Block, Technical Terms
of Reference for the procurement of main equipment defined - CNG Ostrovo – draft expert opinion of the Faculty of Mining and Geology
on the interaction of objects and activities of NIS and water sources provided for inspection and comments submitted
• Kovin (CHP, coal exploitation) - Preparation of the Feasibility Study for the new mine began.
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Macroeconomic Indicators Continuation of Adverse Macroeconomic Trends
USD/RSD Exchange Rate +2% Price of Brent Oil, $/bbl -25%
• The average value in the first nine months of 2016 is by 2% higher than the average value in the first nine months of 2015
• In 9M 2016 – decrease by 1%
• In 9M 2015 – increase by 7%
• The average price in the first nine months of 2016 is by 25% lower than the average price in the first nine months of 2015
• In 9M 2016 – increase by 32%
• In 9M 2015 – decrease by 14%
99,4641
106,4910
108,2064
111,2468 109,8965
110,2386
98
103
108
113
I I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX
54,98
47,29
55,39
36,53 48,11
41,77
20
40
60
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX
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HSE Indicators
Positive Trend
Increase in transparency LTIF RAR
LTIF - Injury coefficient (fatalities and injuries with lost days multiplied by 1 million and divided by the number of man hours) RAR - Ratio between the number of traffic accidents and km travelled, multiplied by 1 million
2.2
1.76
3.52
2016Plan
9М 2016
9М 2015
0.32
0.31
0.38
2016Plan
9М 2016
9М 2015
3%
9М 2015 9М 2016
12,662 35,881
958 691
92 75
9 5 Major events
Medium events
Minor events
Near-misses
50%
20%
18%
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Q3 2016 Key Indicators
NIS Group
Q3
2016 Q3
2015 Key indicators
Unit of measure
9M 2016 9M
2015
44.1 49.5 -11% Urals $/bbl 40.1 54.6 -27%
4.5 6.0 -24% Net profit RSD bn 7.7 10.9 -30%
9.3 11.3 -17% EBITDA RSD bn 22.5 32.3 -30%
52.7 55.8 -6% Sales revenue RSD bn 134.1 159.2 -16%
9.6 11.7 -18% OCF RSD bn 18.2 36.0 -50%
41.2 42.1 -2% Accrued liabilities for taxes and other public revenue
RSD bn 117.5 109.3 +7%
365 395 -8% Output of oil and gas Thousand TOE 1,108 1,190 -7%
240 265 -9% Output of domestic oil Thousand tons 733 801 -8%
626 890 -30% Volume of refining of oil and semi-finished products Thousand tons 2,376 2,401 -1%
861 872 -1% Total sales of petroleum products Thousand tons 2,414 2,335 +3%
68 54 +26% Sales – foreign assets Thousand tons 191 142 +34%
793 818 -3% Sales of petroleum products in the domestic market Thousand tons 2,223 2,193 +1%
570 545 +5% Motor fuel Thousand tons 1,529 1,439 +6%
243 228 +6% Retail Thousand tons 668 619 +8%
5.6 6.5 -18% CAPEX RSD bn 14.5 19.0 -24%
708 677 +5% Total bank indebtedness
USD mn 708 677 +5%
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Trends in Motor Fuel Markets
9M 2016/9М 2015
Key factors behind growth in the consumption of motor fuel in the region: - Macroeconomic parameters - Growth in fuel consumption in the
segment of transport, processing industry and construction
Slovenia
3.2%
Croatia
2.0%
B & H
2.1%
Hungary
3.0% Romania
3.6%
Bulgaria
2.2%
Serbia
2.0% Serbia • Growth in diesel consumption
— Infrastructure activities, — Better results of processing
companies, — Solid agricultural season, — Also accountable to growth in
transport
• A portion of diesel consumption has gone to the grey zone
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Market Share - Serbia
Petroleum Product Market 9M 2016
Volume of the petroleum product market Thousand tons +4.6%
• Total consumption of petroleum products is on the rise
• Increase in the consumption of: - Virgin naphtha and petrol, - Diesel - Mazut and - Bitumen because of lower prices and intense infrastructure activity.
• Decrease in the consumption of: - LPG, - Fuel oil and - Mazut
Reasons for a slightly lower market share of NIS lie in the increasing quantities of petroleum products in the so-called grey zone as a segment non-accessible to legal market participants.
564 (23%)
665 (26%)
1,865 (77%)
1,875 (74%)
2,428
2,540
9M2015
9M2016
Others NIS
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Market Share - Serbia
Retail Market 9М 2016
Volume of retail market Thousand tons +1.8%
• Increase in the retail market volume by 1.8%
• Growth in consumption as a result of:
- Lower prices - Mild winter - Growth in transport - Early start of agricultural activities
• NIS has increased its market share by 1.3%
• NIS has recorded an increase in the sales of:
- Petrol - Diesel - Autogas
701 (59%)
697 (57%)
495 (41%)
520 (43%)
1,195
1,217
9M2015
9M2016
Others NIS
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Market Share - the Region
9М 2016*
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Number of FS: 35 % total market: 10.7% % retail market: 10.4%
Romania
Number of FS: 18 % total market: 0.6% % retail market : 1.0%
Bulgaria
Number of FS: 35 % total market : 4.5% % retail market: 4.4%
*Compared to the market share in 9M of 2015
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Operating Indicators
Exploration and Production
Output of oil and gas Thousand conditional tons
-7% -8%
• Over and above the plan: - Output of domestic oil - +11.9 thousand tons - Output of domestic gas - +0.3% - Undertaking GTA - Production from additional drilling
265
257
251
243
240
115
116
112
111
112
15
14
14
13
13
395
387
377
366
365
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Domestic oil Domestic gas Angola
The estimated increase in hydrocarbon reserves is
3.7%
801
733
344
335
44
40
1,190
1,108
9M2015
9M2016
Domestic oil Domestic gas Angola
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Operating Indicators
Refining
Volume of refining Thousand tons
-1% -30%
• Volume of refining in accordance with:
- Market demands - Optimisation of refining types of oil and other raw materials - Decrease in the volume of refining in Quarter 3 due to major overhaul
1,357
1,618
782
612
262
146
2,401
2,376
9M2015
9M2016
Imported oil Domestic oil Semi-finished products
544
545
474
696
447
265
251
245
229
137
81
83
56
49
42
890
879
776
974
626
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Imported oil Domestic oil Semi-finished products
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Operating Indicators
Sales and Distribution
Volume of sales* Thousand tons
+3% -1%
• Retail – Serbia – volume increase of 5% • Wholesale – Serbia – volume increase of 1%
• Exports – volume decrease of 3% • Foreign assets – volume increase of 34%
496
522
142
191
1,348
1,363
348
339
2,335
2,414
9M2015
9M2016
Retail - Serbia Foreign assetsWholesale - Serbia Exports
183
185
151
180
191
54
52
56
67
68
501
555
411
476
477
134
127
86
128
125
872
919
703
850
861
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Retail Foreign assetsWholesale Exports
*Including internal sales (9M 2016: around 9.2 thousand tons; 9M 2015: around 13.7 thousand tons)
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Financial Indicators
Net Profit RSD bn
-30% -24%
• Prices of oil and petroleum products
6.0
3.7
0.3
2.9
4.5
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
10.9
7.7
9M2015
9M2016
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Financial Indicators
EBITDA RSD bn
-30% -17%
• Adverse impact of oil prices (Urals – decrease of 27% compared to 9M in 2015)
11.3
14.2
3.8
9.4
9.3
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
32.3
22.5
9M2015
9M2016
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Financial Indicators
OCF RSD bn
-50% -18%
• Smaller inflows - Low prices of petroleum products
• Larger outflows - Higher liabilities to the state - Higher liabilities to suppliers (oil type changes and payment currency change)
11.7
15.0
3.6
5.0
9.6
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
36.0
18.2
9M2015
9M2016
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Financial Indicators
CAPEX RSD bn
-24% Investment by segment RSD bn
• Largest investments in Exploration and Production
• Prioritisation of the investment portfolio
19.0
14.5
9M2015
9M2016
74%
2% 9%
4%
9%
2% Exploration andProductionServices
Refining
Sales andDistributionEnergy
CorporateCentre
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Operational Efficiency Improvement
Effect of operational efficiency improvement measures on EBITDA RSD bn
2.0
0.6
2.9
0.6 0.7
0.8
7.7 7.7
5.7
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.1
0.0 0.5 0.9
0.9
2.2 0.8
2.9 0.7
0.7 1.3 8.6
1.3 9.9
6.8
Explorationand
Production
Services Refining Sales andDistribution
Energy CorporateCentre
(functions)
NIS 2016Estimation
Damageprevented
Total NIS2016
Estimation
Realisationin 9M of
2016
Measures (BP, QPR1, QPR2, QPR3) Damage prevented Potential
73%
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Bank indebtedness
Total bank debt USD mn
+6% Total bank indebtedness USD mn
+5%
201 25
41 4 86 32 52 86 105
392 430
330 264 358
430 560 499
518 527
200 155
116 99
94 82
72 73
71 70
793 611
446 403
455 598
664 623
676 702
31.12.'09
31.12.'10
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31.12.'12
31.12.'13
31.12.'14
31.12.'15
31.03.'16
30.06.'16
30.09.'16
Short-term Medium-term Long-term
233 33 13 14 34 28 12 10 4 6
793 611
446 403
455 598 664
623 676 702
1,026 644
458 418
489 626
675 633 680 708
31.12.'09
31.12.'10
31.12.'11
31.12.'12
31.12.'13
31.12.'14
31.12.'15
31.03.'16
30.06.'16
30.09.'16
Letters of credit Loans
Debt structure: USD 59% EUR 37% Other 4%
GPN loan as at 30.09.2016 – EUR 314 mn (-10%)
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Benchmarking
EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA/FTE (thousand USD) Daily sales (t/day)
Share of light products (%) OPEX ($/BOE)
32.1
19.8
16.8
16.7
7.2
18.5
69.2
37.6
25.2
21.7
6.3
32.0 8.4
7.0 6.8
5.8 5.8 5.5
6.6
87.4
74.8
74.4
73.1
72.3
76.4
5.7 1.2
12.2
11.8
7.0
6.5
N/A
9.4
3. 4.
4. 3.
3. 2.
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∆ Average price of Urals oil is lower than the macro assumption in the Business Plan
∆ Limited possibility of long-term borrowing
∆ Adverse impact of the “grey” market
∆ Positive net result
∆ Output of oil and gas over and above the plan even with the decrease in the volume of investment
∆ Increase in sales
∆ Major overhaul at POR completed successfully
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Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by NIS a.d. Novi Sad (the “Company”), and comprises the slides for a presentation to investors concerning NIS
Group. Presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation, or any solicitation of any offer to sell or purchase or subscribe for, any
shares or other securities representing shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis
of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.
Any viewer of this presentation considering a purchase of such securities is hereby reminded that any such sale or purchase should be made solely on
the basis of the information contained in other publicly available documents and will be subject to the restrictions set out therein. No reliance may be
placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or any other material discussed at any presentation or on its
completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation should not be treated as giving investment advice or recommendation. All
reasonable measures are taken to ensure that the facts stated in this presentation are accurate, and that the opinions expressed are fair and
reasonable. However, the contents of this presentation have not been adopted by the corporate body’s of Company. Accordingly, no representation or
warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its members, directors, officers or employees or any other
person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in or discussed at this presentation. None of the Company
or any of their respective members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever
arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
The information in this presentation includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical
facts, statements regarding the Company’s and NIS Group’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the NIS Group’s
results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, and the industry in which the Company and NIS Group operate. By their
nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, the risks and uncertainties to be set in other publicly
available documents, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The Company cautions you
that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and
the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking
statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the NIS Group’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the
development of the industry in which the Company and NIS Group operate are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this
presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The information and opinions contained
in this presentation are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice.
No person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.
By attending the presentation you confirm that you have read and understood foregoing limitations.