presentation for investors and...
TRANSCRIPT
PRESENTATION FOR INVESTORS AND SHAREHOLDERS For 2016
27 February 2017 Anton Fedorov Function for Finance, Economics, Planning and Accounting
• 5 exploration wells were drilled
• Oil deposit Iđoš was discovered
• The existing gas reservoir was confirmed and a new one discovered in Begejci
• Finalised and presented regional model of the Pannonian Basin
• Completed drilling of well RAG Kiha-004
• Completed interpretation of data for blocks Ex-7 and Ex-8
• Completed testing of well Jimbolia-6
• Conducted geo-chemical works on fields in block Istočna Hercegovina
2
NIS in 2016 Exploration and Production
• Signed contract on the implementation of project „Bottom of the barrel“
• Capital overhaulr conducted in September
• Optimised basket of raw materials – processing of new types of crude oil Kirkuk and Forcados
• Completed project for in-line blending of gasoline
• Heat exchanger Packinox put into operation
• Pančevo Oil Refinery – pilot project for OMS implementation
3
NIS in 2016 Refining
• Completed total reconstruction of 6 petrol stations in Serbia
• Introduction of new branded fuel – G-Drive Diesel, G-Drive 100 and Ultra D
• Import of new types of crude oil and lower import premiums for CPC and REB realised
• 8 new road tank cars for jet fuel, 2 sets of road tank cars for light petroleum products and 6 semi-trailers for LPG introduced into exploitation
• Loyalty programs
4
NIS in 2016 Sales and Distribution
• Conducted tender procedure for the selection of a bidder for project “ТЕ-ТО Pančevo“ and share capital was paid
• Acquired the status of a privileged producer of electricity for the project "Wind Park Plandište“
• Small power plant Majdan put into operation
• CNG station “Čačak 1“ put into operation
• Project of building the station for CNG supplying "Žarkovo 2“ started
• Construction of the CNG plant at the deposit "Ostrovo" is in its final stage
• The volume of electricity trading > 2TWh
5
NIS in 2016 Energy
USD/RSD exchange rate
2% Price of crude oil Urals RCMB, $/bbl
-18%
Macroeconomic indicators Stable exchange rate, lower crude oil price
6
100
105
110
115
120
I III V VII IX XI
2015
Average in 2015
2016
Average in 2016
25
35
45
55
65
I III V VII IX XI
2015
Average in 2015
2016
Average in 2016
HSE indicators Positive trend
7
Transparency increase LTIF RAR
2015 2016
17,873 51,421
1,186 902
118 105
10 6 Major events
Medium events
Small events
Potential events
3.03
2.2 1.63
2015 2016 Plan2016
2016
Plan2016
205
0.35 0.32 0.32
2015 2016 Plan2016
2016
Plan2016
2015
46%
26%
9% 0%
Key indicators NIS Group
8
Key indicators Unit measure 2016 2015 ∆
Urals $/bbl 42.1 51.5 -18%
Net profit billion RSD 15.0 14.6 +3%
EBITDA billion RSD 39.8 46.5 -14%
OCF billion RSD 41.2 51.0 -19%
Accrued liabilities for public revenues billion RSD 163.3 151.9 +7%
Crude oil and gas production thous. t.o.e. 1,463 1,577 -7%
Scope of crude oil and semi-finished products refining thous. tons 3,311 3,281 +1%
Total trade in petroleum products thous. tons 3,340 3,254 +3%
CAPEX billion RSD 26.1 30.3 -14%
Total bank indebtedness (debt to banks and letters of credit)
million USD 666 675 -1.5%
Motor fuel market trends 2016/2015
9
Motor fuel consumption in the region is on the increase: - Macroeconomic trends - Increase in fuel consumption in the transport
segment, processing industry and construction.
Serbia
• Diesel consumption is on the increase: — Infrastructure works, — Improved results in the processing industry, — Good agricultural season, — Transport development.
• Part of Diesel fuel consumption moved to the grey area • Cross-border fuel procurement in B&H and Macedonia
Slovenia
3.1%
Croatia
1.9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.9% Bulgaria
2.2%
Romania
3.5%
Hungary
3.5%
Serbia 2.3%
772 (23%)
923 (26%)
2,592 (77%)
2,614 (74%)
3,364 3,538
2015 2016
NIS
Others
Market share – Serbia Petroleum products market
• Total consumption of petroleum products is on the increase
• Growth in the consumption of primary and motor fuel, diesel, jet fuel, bitumen and oil fuel:
— Lower prices
— Infrastructure works
• Lower consumption of LPG and heating oil
10
5.2% Scope of petroleum products market, thous. tons
Lower NIS market share due to an increased quantity of petroleum products in the so called „grey area“ which is, as a segment, unavailable for legal participants on the market.
Market share – Serbia Retail market
• Retail market developed by 1.9%
• Consumption grew due to:
— Lower prices
— Transport development
— Larger fleet
— Transit traffic development
11
951 (58%)
951 (57%)
679 (42%)
710 (43%)
1,630 1,661
2015 2016
NIS
Others
1.9% Retail market, thous. tons NIS increased its market share through increased sale in gasoline and diesel, as well as motor vehicle gas.
Market share – region 2016/2015
12
Bosnia and Herzegovina
No. of PS: 35* % total market: 11.0% % retail market: 10.4%
Romania
No. of PS: 18 % total market: 0.6% % retail market: 0.9%
Bulgaria
No. of PS: 35 % total market: 4.3% % retail market: 4.3%
*there are two more petrol stations which operate in DODO regime
Operating indicators Exploration and Production
• Fulfilled hydrocarbons production plan:
— Domestic crude oil - +18.5 thous. tons
— Domestic gas - +0.1%
— Angola - -15%
• GTA application
• The pace of the base production decline was held at the planned level
Estimated increase in hydrocarbon reserves is
3.4%
1,058 967
460 444
59 52
1,577 1,463
2015 2016
Angola
Domesticgas
Domesticcrude oil
-7% Crude oil and gas production, thous. t.o.e.
13
Operating indicators Refining
• Scope of refining is in accordance with market needs and refining optimisation
• Scope of refining is larger than planned:
— Increased crude oil refining efficiency
— Increased end of VGO distillation
— Refining of new types of crude oil
1,034 925
1,902 2,180
346 207 3,281 3,311
2015 2016
Semi-finishedproducts
Imported crude oil
Domestic crude oil
+1% Refining of crude oil and semi-finished products, thous. tons
14
Operating indicators Sales and Distribution
• Retail sale in Serbia – 5% increase
• Wholesale in Serbia – at the same level
• Export –1% drop
• Foreign assets –31% increase
681 712
194 256
1,903 1,900
475 472
3,254 3,340
2015 2016
Export
Whole sale -Serbia
Foreign assets
Retail sale -Serbia
+3% Sales volume, thous. tons
15
Financial indicators Net profit
16
• Measures for increasing operating efficiency and costs reduce
• Increase of sales volumes
• Smaller negative FX differences
14.6 15.0
2015 2016
+3% Net profit, billion RSD
The effect of decrease in the price of oil and petroleum products in the market was partially cushioned by the effects of operational effectiveness improvement measures.
Financial indicators EBITDA
• Negative effect of crude oil prices
— Drop in the price of Urals crude oil by 18% compared to 2015
46.5 39.8
2015 2016
-14% EBITDA, billion RSD
17
Financial indicators OCF
• Smaller inflows
— Low petroleum products prices
• Larger outflows
— Greater liabilities towards the state
18
51.0 41.2
2015 2016
-19% OCF, billion RSD
Financial indicators CAPEX
19
30.3 26.1
2015 2016
-14% CAPEX, billion RSD
68% 4%
14%
5% 7%
2% Exploration andproductionServices
Refining
Sales&Distribution
Energy
Corporate center
CAPEX per segments
Measures for increasing operational efficiency Effect on EBITDA, billion RSD
20
8.6
2.8
2.4 0.8
2.9 0.7
0.7
1.1 8.6
2.8 11.4
Exploration andProduction
Block
Services Block Refining Block Sales andDistribution
Block
Energy Block CorporateCenter
NIS 2016 Preventeddamage
Total NIS 2016
Measures Prevented damage
Indebtedness towards banks Maturity and currency structure of the loan portfolio
21
201
25
41
4
86
32
52
86
105
104
392
430
330
264
358
430
560
499
518
527
492
200
155
116
99
94
82
72
73
71
70
66
793
611
446
403
455
598
664
623
676
702
662
31.12.'09
31.12.'10
31.12.'11
31.12.'12
31.12.'13
31.12.'14
31.12.'15
31.03.'16
30.06.'16
30.09.'16
31.12.'16
Short term
Medium term
Long term
-1.5%
Debt towards banks, million USD
233
33
13
14
34
28
12
10
4
6
3
793
611
446
403
455
598
664
623
676
702
662
1.026
644
458
418
489
626
675
633
680
708
666
31.12.'09
31.12.'10
31.12.'11
31.12.'12
31.12.'13
31.12.'14
31.12.'15
31.03.'16
30.06.'16
30.09.'16
31.12.'16
Letters of credit
Debt to banks
-0.2%
Indebtedness towards banks, million USD
Debt structure: USD 51% EUR 48% Other 1%
GPN loan -13% 302 mn EUR
Comparative analysis
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EBITDA margin (%) 2. EBITDA/FTE (thous. USD) 4. Daily turnover (t/day) 5.&3.
Light products share (%) 5. OPEX ($/boe) 2.
30.4
20.8
17.0
17.0
14.3
19.9
160.5
82.9
82.3
63.7
30.0
83.9
8.9 7.5
6.9 5.9 5.9 5.6
6.8
86.8
84.9
78.1
76.0
74.1
80.3 11.9
11.6
5.8
6.6
N/A
1.5 7.3
9.3
Conclusion
Average price of Urals crude oil in 2016 is smaller than average price in 2015
Limited possibility of long-term indebtedness
Negative effect of the “raw“ market
Slower implementation of a project in the field of “Energy“
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Net profit increase
Resource base development
Crude oil and gas production is beyond planned even in case of reduced scope of investments
Increased sales and distribution
Successfully conducted capital workover in Pančevo Oil Rafinery
Successful continuation of the operational efficiency increase program
APPENDIX
Business Plan 2017 Macro assumptions and priorities
25
Macro assumptions Priorities
Investments
Business Plan 2017 Upstream
26
Reserves dynamic, thous. t.o.e.
Oil and gas production, thous. t.o.e.
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 BP '18 E '19 E
Angola and concessions
Domestic gas
Domestic oil
• Increase the reserves
• Improving efficiency of Geological-exploration works (GEW)
• Implementation of projects related to GEW of hard recoverable reserves and unconventional resources
• Increasing production and technology efficiency
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 BP '18 E '19 E
Business Plan 2017 Downstream
• Activities on the “Bottom of the barrel“ project
• Implementation of the OMS
• Increasing market share in motor fuels market
• Further development of premium motor fuels
27
Refining volume, thous. tonnes
Sales volume, thous. tonnes
'09* '10* '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 BP '18 E '19 E
'09* '10* '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 BP '18 E '19 E
CAPEX, bn RSD
Business Plan 2017 CAPEX
28
26.1 28.6
2016 2017 BP
58%
4%
20%
14%
3%
1% Exploration andproductionServices
Refining
Sales&Distribution
Energy
Corporate Centre
CAPEX per segments +10%
“The implementation of the adopted Business Plan will make it possible for NIS to maintain its profitability next year and continue implementing key investment projects, which are of considerable importance to the economy of Serbia and the Balkans as a whole. We take pride in the fact that NIS has had a good performance, showing resilience to the influence of the unstable macro environment. In 2017, NIS is going to continue implementing the business strategy whose main objective is – to become the regional energy leader.”
Vadim Yakovlev,
Chairman of the Board of Directors of NIS j.s.c. Novi Sad
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THANK YOU [email protected]