presidential elections. how often? fixed term elections every 4 years 2-term limit for individual...
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Presidential elections
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How often?
Fixed term elections every 4 years 2-term limit for individual president According to Article II the election
should be held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November i.e. between 2nd-8th November
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4 stages of presidential elections
1. Primaries and caucuses – Jan.-early June of election year
2. National party conventions – August/September
3. General election campaign – September/November
4. Election Day and Electoral College – 2nd-8th November
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What does it take to become president?
What are the constitutional requirements?
• Naturally born American citizen• Minimum 35 years old• Residential qualification of 14 years• Not having served more than 2
terms
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Political experience Presidential candidates are often Vice
Presidents, State governors or Senators. Of the 16 politicians nominated as
presidential candidates in the last 11 elections up to 2008 9 have been Senators, 6 were Vice Presidents and 5 were governors
What about Obama? How important is political experience?
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Major party endorsement
Vital to be chosen as candidate for one of 2 major parties
Third party candidates have little chance e.g. Ross Perot (1992 and 1996)
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Personal characteristics How many black candidates have there
been? How many Senators or State Governors
are women? Does it help to be married? Does it help to be faithful if you are
married? What other personal characteristics are
important?
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Ability to raise large sums of money Realistic candidates have to raise huge
sums of money before the primaries e.g. in 2007 Clinton raised $90m, Obama $70m and McCain $28m
This money comes from individuals and groups and there are strict rules
Only billionaires like Ross Perot can afford to finance campaigns out of their own pockets
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Effective organisation During primaries the candidates do not
have their party organisation behind them do they have to set up their own team
This has to be done both nationally and in each state. This needs time, money and ORGANISATION
One of the major reasons why Clinton lost the primary is due to poor organisation
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Oratorical skills and being telegenic Which presidents had it and which
didn’t?? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
hORaebYWDwk&NR=1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
ZOFdTQAaSBs&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=WjWDrTXMgF8
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Sound and relevant policies
Clinton ‘the economy, stupid’ McCain – campaign finance reform Obama?
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THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY This is the period between when the
candidates declare an intention to run for the presidency and the first contests of the primary season
It is called invisible because much of what occurs cannot actually be seen
In the last election the first candidate declared himself in December 2006 (the election was Nov. 2008). Clinton announced in Jan 2007, Obama in Feb and McCain in April
First primary elections were in Jan 2008
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THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY It is important during this period for the
candidate to gain NAME RECOGNITION, raise MONEY and arrange a state-based ORGANISATION
In the past there has been a strong correlation between candidates who have won the invisible primary and those who go on to win the presidential nomination.
Support for candidates is usually expressed through opinion polls. Often in head to head match ups
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What can you do to win an invisible primary?
1. GET A MENTION IN THE MEDIA• Try to get in the national ‘papers• Have an article written about you
in a weekly like Time or Newsweek• Get an in-depth interview on tv
e.g. The News Hour with Jim Lehrer
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What can you do to win an invisible primary?
2. TELEVISED DEBATES• There were 16 televised debates
between Democratic candidates and 12 between Republican candidates
• On 30th October Clinton fumbled over a question on illegal immigration
• immigrantshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eIKC3SQ_AA
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3. STATE SPECIAL EVENTS• Iowa Straw Poll – A Republican fund-
raising dinner. Not a good predictor though
• Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner – Democratic fund-raiser. Obama made an impressive speech
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQiYc
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4. Visits to key states e.g. Iowa and New Hampshire
5. CANDIDATES PUBLISH BOOKS6. MONEY RAISING• 1999 Elizabeth Dole ended her
presidential bid during invisible primary claiming the money had become the message
• Al Gore scared off challengers for the 2000 Democratic nomination because of huge amounts of money raised
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The 2008 Invisible primary The 2008 race was littered with ‘firsts’ First election since 1952 where
neither incumbent president nor incumbent vice-president was a candidate
Lack of incumbents led to a larger field of candidates
By Jan. 2008 were 16 serious candidates
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Democratic presidential candidates
Jo Biden – US Senator since 1973Hillary Clinton – US Senator since 2001Christopher Dodd – US Senator since 1981John Edwards – US Senator (1969-2005)Mike Gravel – US Senator (1969-81)Dennis Kucnich – US Representative snce
1997Barack Obama – US Senator since 2005Bill Richardson – Governor New Mexico
since 2003
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Republican presidential candidates 2008
Sam Brownback – US Senator since 1996Rudolph Guiliani – Mayor New York 1994-2001Mike Huckabee – Governor Arkansas 1996-2007Duncan Hunter – US Representative since 1981John McCain – US Senator since 1987Ron Paul – US Representative snce 1997Mitt Romney – Governor Massachusetts 2003-7Fred Thompson – US Senator 1994-2003
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Who had the big mo?
What factors do you think led to Clinton having a 28 point lead over Obama throughout 2007?
Who was the front runner for the Republicans during the invisible primary?
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Who won the money primary?
During 2007 Clinton raised more money than Obama in 10 out of the 12 months. She raised $154m to Obama’s $129m
In the Republican race it was Romney who raised most money. He raised $112m to Guiliani’s $79m and McCain’s 54m
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How important is the invisible primary?
Convention says it is the most important part of the nomination i.e. that whoever is ahead at the close of the invisible primary will win
In 2007 Clinton and Giuliani were ahead in the opinion polls and yet neither ended up as their party’s presidential nominee