presidential primaries: how iowa, new hampshire, and weird rules determine who wins
TRANSCRIPT
Presidential Primaries:
How Iowa, New Hampshire, andWeird Rules Determine Who Wins
Presidential Primaries:
Or, Who won Iowa & then the GOP Nomination
How it used to work National nominating conventions
Selection of delegates controlled by party officials
Many / most delegates uncommitted
Example. 1960 Kennedy vs. Nixon
To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win
Entered West Virginia primary election
“Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting
Before 1972 Most states did not have public primary or caucus
In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters
By 2000 70 - 85% selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1st ballot at convention
Today Primaries or Caucuses
Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate).
Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates
The Demise of Nominating Conventions
Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes)
Gave “too much” control to party leaders
Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with
Chicago, 1968 Incumbent President was LB Johnson Vietnam War in 4th year:
Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968
New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 McCarthy 42% LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but....
RFK enters race days latter G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3rd Party
Chicago, 1968 LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 Vice President HHH says he’ll run Primaries & Delegates prior to convention:
RFK won 4 258 delegates McCarthy won 5 393 delegates HHH didn't run 561 delegates
Chicago 1968 RFK assassinated June 1968
Convention in August:
video
Chicago, 1968 Democratic
Convention Vote:
HHH 1759McCarthy 601McGovern 146Philips 67Moore 17
After Chicago Democrats split, lose
to Nixon Rule of ‘party bosses’
challenged by McCarthy, McGovern
Reform commission established
State laws changed
Post 1968 Reforms New Nomination Rules:
most delegates must be selected by voters but how?
caucuses with open participation primaries, with candidates on ballot Proportionality (Democrats) maximize women & minorities at Dem convention
Post 1968 reforms What is a political party?
voters? elected officials? elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?
Since 1972 National parties kept tinkering with rules:
how award state’s delegates? winner take all? proportional to voter support? PLEOS?
who can participate only registered partisans? independents
what schedule, when start? March, then February, then January...
1972 - 2008 The Carter Model
outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment Gary Hart ‘84; John McCain 2000; Obama ‘08
The Mondale/Clinton/Bush/Romney Model Super-delegates (PLEOs)
from 75% voter selected to 54%
Frontloading and Super Tuesdays
Frontloading1984 IA Feb 20 NH Feb 28 50% selected
by May 20th 1988 IA Feb 8 NH Feb 16
1992 IA Feb 10 NH Feb 18
1996 IA Feb 12 NH Feb 20
2000 IA Jan 24 NH Feb 1
2004 IA Jan 19 NH Jan 27
2008 IA Jan 3 NH Jan 8 50% selected by Feb 9th
Frontloading 1976, 12 weeks until 50% of all
delegates awarded
2008, 4 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded
Differences Dems vs. Republicans Schedules
Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun Proportionality
A Democratic thing; GOP was winner take all Super Delegates
A Democratic thing Republicans more predictable
Democrats = chaos
To summarize Party Conventions used to pick nominees
Voters in primaries / caucuses now pick
Primary / caucus rules matter what state goes first? how allocate delegates?
Iowa, 2012: RCP poll average Romney 23% Paul 22% Santorum 16% Gingrich 14% Perry 12% Bachman 7%
Iowa, ‘predicted’ result: Romney 28% Paul 18% Santorum 15% Gingrich 15% Perry 9% Bachmann whatever…
Expectations What do pre-Iowa poll results reflect?
What is expected, given these results? By whom?
What if candidate fails to meet expectations?
Iowa, 2012: Result Santorum 25%* Romney 25% Paul 21% Gingrich 13% Perry 10% Bachman 5%
Iowa, 2012 Why so much attention?
2008 165 stories on CNN 2008 160 stories on ABC 2008 900 AP stories 2008 380 stories NYT 2012: 40+ NYT stories by Dec 24th 2011
Iowa, 2012 What effects of Iowa this year?
Who stays in race? Who drops out? Did any other state play this role? Why Iowa?
Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in
the top 3 out of Iowa? Bachmann – dead.
Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in
the top 3 out of Iowa? Perry – dead.
Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in
the top 3 out of Iowa? Newt – walking dead.
Beating expectations:
Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney 33% pre, 37% post Paul 20% pre, 17% post Gingrich 20% pre, 11% post Perry 9% pre, 7% post Bachman 7% pre, 3% post Santorum 9% pre, 21% post Huntsman2% pre, 2% post
Beating expectations Would Santorum have been known w/o
Iowa? Huckabee?
Would Obama have beat Clinton?
So, what role Iowa? Winnowing field of candidates
Defining frontrunner Killed Romney ‘08, made Obama ‘08…
Influence what happens in NH?
So, Why Iowa? What if different state went first?
What if same-day national primary?
Regional primaries?
Why Iowa? Benefits of sequential elections
Learning?