presidential primaries: how iowa, new hampshire, and weird rules determine who wins

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Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

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Page 1: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Presidential Primaries:

How Iowa, New Hampshire, andWeird Rules Determine Who Wins

Page 2: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Presidential Primaries:

Or, Who won Iowa & then the GOP Nomination

Page 3: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

How it used to work National nominating conventions

Selection of delegates controlled by party officials

Many / most delegates uncommitted

Page 4: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Example. 1960 Kennedy vs. Nixon

To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win

Entered West Virginia primary election

“Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting

Page 5: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Before 1972 Most states did not have public primary or caucus

In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters

By 2000 70 - 85% selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1st ballot at convention

Page 6: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Today Primaries or Caucuses

Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate).

Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

Page 7: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

The Demise of Nominating Conventions

Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes)

Gave “too much” control to party leaders

Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

Page 8: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Chicago, 1968 Incumbent President was LB Johnson Vietnam War in 4th year:

Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968

New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 McCarthy 42% LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but....

RFK enters race days latter G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3rd Party

Page 9: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Chicago, 1968 LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 Vice President HHH says he’ll run Primaries & Delegates prior to convention:

RFK won 4 258 delegates McCarthy won 5 393 delegates HHH didn't run 561 delegates

Page 10: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Chicago 1968 RFK assassinated June 1968

Convention in August:

video

Page 11: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Chicago, 1968 Democratic

Convention Vote:

HHH 1759McCarthy 601McGovern 146Philips 67Moore 17

Page 12: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

After Chicago Democrats split, lose

to Nixon Rule of ‘party bosses’

challenged by McCarthy, McGovern

Reform commission established

State laws changed

Page 13: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Post 1968 Reforms New Nomination Rules:

most delegates must be selected by voters but how?

caucuses with open participation primaries, with candidates on ballot Proportionality (Democrats) maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

Page 14: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Post 1968 reforms What is a political party?

voters? elected officials? elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

Page 15: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Since 1972 National parties kept tinkering with rules:

how award state’s delegates? winner take all? proportional to voter support? PLEOS?

who can participate only registered partisans? independents

what schedule, when start? March, then February, then January...

Page 16: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

1972 - 2008 The Carter Model

outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment Gary Hart ‘84; John McCain 2000; Obama ‘08

The Mondale/Clinton/Bush/Romney Model Super-delegates (PLEOs)

from 75% voter selected to 54%

Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

Page 17: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Frontloading1984 IA Feb 20 NH Feb 28 50% selected

by May 20th 1988 IA Feb 8 NH Feb 16

1992 IA Feb 10 NH Feb 18

1996 IA Feb 12 NH Feb 20

2000 IA Jan 24 NH Feb 1

2004 IA Jan 19 NH Jan 27

2008 IA Jan 3 NH Jan 8 50% selected by Feb 9th

Page 18: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Frontloading 1976, 12 weeks until 50% of all

delegates awarded

2008, 4 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded

Page 19: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins
Page 20: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Differences Dems vs. Republicans Schedules

Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun Proportionality

A Democratic thing; GOP was winner take all Super Delegates

A Democratic thing Republicans more predictable

Democrats = chaos

Page 21: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

To summarize Party Conventions used to pick nominees

Voters in primaries / caucuses now pick

Primary / caucus rules matter what state goes first? how allocate delegates?

Page 22: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Iowa, 2012: RCP poll average Romney 23% Paul 22% Santorum 16% Gingrich 14% Perry 12% Bachman 7%

Page 23: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Iowa, ‘predicted’ result: Romney 28% Paul 18% Santorum 15% Gingrich 15% Perry 9% Bachmann whatever…

Page 24: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Expectations What do pre-Iowa poll results reflect?

What is expected, given these results? By whom?

What if candidate fails to meet expectations?

Page 25: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Iowa, 2012: Result Santorum 25%* Romney 25% Paul 21% Gingrich 13% Perry 10% Bachman 5%

Page 26: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Iowa, 2012 Why so much attention?

2008 165 stories on CNN 2008 160 stories on ABC 2008 900 AP stories 2008 380 stories NYT 2012: 40+ NYT stories by Dec 24th 2011

Page 27: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Iowa, 2012 What effects of Iowa this year?

Who stays in race? Who drops out? Did any other state play this role? Why Iowa?

Page 28: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in

the top 3 out of Iowa? Bachmann – dead.

Page 29: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in

the top 3 out of Iowa? Perry – dead.

Page 30: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in

the top 3 out of Iowa? Newt – walking dead.

Page 31: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Beating expectations:

Page 32: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney 33% pre, 37% post Paul 20% pre, 17% post Gingrich 20% pre, 11% post Perry 9% pre, 7% post Bachman 7% pre, 3% post Santorum 9% pre, 21% post Huntsman2% pre, 2% post

Page 33: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Beating expectations Would Santorum have been known w/o

Iowa? Huckabee?

Would Obama have beat Clinton?

Page 34: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

So, what role Iowa? Winnowing field of candidates

Defining frontrunner Killed Romney ‘08, made Obama ‘08…

Influence what happens in NH?

Page 35: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

So, Why Iowa? What if different state went first?

What if same-day national primary?

Regional primaries?

Page 36: Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Why Iowa? Benefits of sequential elections

Learning?