principles of vaccine portfolio … of vaccine portfolio prioritization and management © 2014 bill...
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PRINCIPLES OF VACCINE PORTFOLIO PRIORITIZATION AND MANAGEMENT
© 2014 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Product Development Boot Camp
November 5, 2015
New York, New York
Strategy, Planning & Management
Hugh Chang, Director
HIV
TB
Malaria
NTD
EDD
Global HealthFunctional Areas
Global Program Strategy Teams
Global DevelopmentFunctional Areas
Discovery & Translational
Sciences
Vaccine Development and Surveillance
Integrated Development
Vaccine Delivery
Integrated Delivery
FH1 Nutrition
Global Policy & Advocacy | Country Offices
Polio
WSH3
Ag
FSP4
Strategy, Planning & Management
Life Sciences PartnershipsKim Bush, Director
Mark Suzman, President
Orin Levine, Director
Trevor Mundel, President Chris Elias, President
Dan Hartman, Director
Toni Hoover, Director
Chris Wilson, Director
Penny Heaton, Director
Dana Hovig, Director
Emilio Emini, Director
Gilla Kaplan, Director
Roger Voorhies, Director
Jay Wenger, Director
Shawn Baker, Director
Trevor Mundel, Interim Director
Anita Zaidi, Director
Brain Arbogast, Director
Pamela Anderson, Director
Alan Magill, Director
1 Family Health 2 Maternal and Child Health3 Water, Sanitation & Hygiene
2
FP5 Kellie Sloan, Director
FH1 MCH2 Mariam Claeson, Director
4 Financial Services for the Poor5Family Planning
Pneumo Keith Klugman, Director
Global Program Organization
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WHAT WE FOCUS ON
What are the areas
of greatest need?
Where can we have
the greatest impact?
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Source: WHO (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/index1.html)
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CHILDHOOD DEATHS ARE DECLINING WORLDWIDE BUT NEED MORE PROGRESS, PARTICULARLY IN NEONATES
5M
10M
15M
20M
20121960 1965 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20101975 2005
20 million
6.6 million
Source: The World Bank
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 81. Vaccine spend only. Excludes GAVI spend tied to VIS (e.g., Cholera Stockpile, YF Campaigns) as well as cash programs and business plan. Source: Under 5 mortality from GBD 2013 IHME; GAVI budget from GAVI Investment Opportunity 2015
Leading Causes of Mortality in Children Under 5
6.3M deaths per year (2013)
GAVI budget $6.5B (2016-2020) (1)
• Disease burden (disability-adjusted life years)
• Probability of success of vaccines as compared with other interventions
• Cost-effectiveness
• Co-Chair interests
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SIMPLE RULES FOR VACCINE PORTFOLIO PRIORITIZATION
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VACCINE DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIESLeading Causes of Mortality in Children Under 5
6.3M deaths per year (2013)
GAVI budget $6.5B (2016-2020)
Near-term
• Poliovirus vaccines
• Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines
• Rotavirus vaccines – oral; parenteral
• HPV
• RSV
Mid- and long-term
• Other enterics – ETEC, Shigella, Typhoid
• Malaria
• HIV
• TB
Sustain legacy vaccines
• Penta, MR, YF, BCG, JE, Cholera
Explore other maternal vaccines
• aP and Group B strep
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• Requirement to address novel or unique hypotheses regarding immune
responses that may play a role in preventing or mitigating HIV infection
• Potential to be transformational
• Probability of success/robustness of data to date
• Orthogonal to what others are funding
• Of special interest
SIMPLE RULES FOR HIV VACCINE PORTFOLIO PRIORITIZATION
Burden of disease at a subnational level in regions of interest, key risk factors, 25 year projections, comorbidities
(e.g. HIV-TB), existing standards of care
Dynamic model of disease demonstrates relative impact of potential interventions, provides
key insights that motivate the strategy
No regret or essential interventions (e.g. malaria SE Asia
elimination, TB nutritional intervention)
Cost effectiveness analysis of potential interventions
Definition of high level intervention implementation plan (either key elements of product development plan or
delivery plan, including identification of decision points and associated decision criteria)
KEY ELEMENTS OF GH PROGRAM STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
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