probabilistic reliability assessmentewh.ieee.org/cmte/pes/rrpa/rrpa_files/lbp20111103/13...
TRANSCRIPT
Probabilistic Reliability AssessmentLOLE Best Practices Meeting
Austin, Texas November 7-8, 2011
2 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Drivers
• Successful execution of a long-term probabilistic-based reliability assessment is a significant step forward in determining future reliability of the bulk power system in North America. – ERO
• This assessment provides a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and probabilistic-based work products that can be used to supplement the NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment’s resource adequacy assessment – Reliability Assessment Improvement Plan.
• FERC directs NERC to develop a plan to address capacity and energy in its reliability assessment methodology and a timeline for executing the plan, and submit the plan and timeline as part of the 2011 LTRA. FERC requires NERC to file its preliminary plan and timeline in an informational filing six months from the date of this order (9/16/2010) – FERC comments to ERO Three-year assessment
• Object is to compare trends within a region, not to compare across regions
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High Level Implementation Plan
• Near term – 2011 Pilot– Pilot Probabilistic Assessment for those that have the capability
– MRAs (Metric Reporting Areas) that do not currently have the modeling capability will acquire or access a model to be used for their probability analysis.
• Long term – 2012 and later– NERC Planning Committee must decide if and how to proceed after
reviewing the results of the 2011 Pilot
– Original design was to have complete coverage of all NERC MRAs
– Correspondence to LTRA still uncertain
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Pilot Status by Area
Participant MRAs Status as of Oct. 26
Manitoba Manitoba Complete
MISO Complete
PJM Complete
SERC North CompleteEast
Southeast
West
SPP Analysis Ongoing
FRCC FRCC Complete
NPCC New England Study Complete
Second draft report delayedNew York
Maritimes
Ontario
Quebec
ERCOT ?
WECC Analysis Delayed
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Forecast Planning Reserve Margins
• There are some reporting inconsistencies to work out:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
ProbA 2011 LTRA 2010 ProbA 2014 LTRA 2014
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2011 Forecast Operable Reserve Margins
• RIS recommended revision to reserve margin
• All resources derated to capacity expected at peak (derate by EFOR)
FRCCManitoba Hydro
MISOSERC -North
SERC -East
SERC -Southea
st
SERC -West
PJMNPCC -
QBNPCC -
MTNPCC -
NENPCC -
NYNPCC -
ON
Planning RM 33% 18% 40% 16% 19% 32% 57% 19% 9% 28% 11% 33% 33%
Operable RM 29% 16% 30% 9% 12% 24% 47% 10% 8% 23% 6% 26% 25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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Loss of Load Hours (LOLH)
• Scale represents one 5-hour outage once every 10 years
• Results are all essentially zero
FRCCManitoba Hydro
MISOSERC -North
SERC -East
SERC -Southea
st
SERC -West
PJMNPCC -
QBNPCC -
MTNPCC -
NENPCC -
NYNPCC -
ON
2011 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.103 0.000 0.000
2014 0.000 0.000 0.054 0.003 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.003 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
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Expected Unserved Energy (EUE)
• Note the scale! With enough magnification…
FRCCManitoba Hydro
MISOSERC -North
SERC -East
SERC -Southea
st
SERC -West
PJMNPCC -
QBNPCC -
MTNPCC -
NENPCC -
NYNPCC -
ON
2011 0.000 0.000 9.000 0.500 5.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 63.400 0.000 0.000
2014 0.000 0.000 67.200 1.700 3.500 0.000 0.000 0.014 0.700 0.000 1.500 0.000 0.000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
MW
h
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Expected Unserved Energy (EUE)
• A different scale; note the different impacts on MISO versus NE
FRCCManitoba Hydro
MISOSERC -North
SERC -East
SERC -Southea
st
SERC -West
PJMNPCC -
QBNPCC -
MTNPCC -
NENPCC -
NYNPCC -
ON
2011 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.002 0.023 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.451 0.000 0.000
2014 0.000 0.000 0.140 0.007 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.000
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
Millio
nth
s;
MW
h/T
Wh
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ProbA Pilot Scedule
Mar. 25, 2011 Issue letter requesting participation in 2011 Pilot.
Apr. 5, 2011 Intro Webinar - field questions by potential participants.
Apr. 21, 2011 Pilot participation opt-in date.
May 27, 2011 Partial drafts of ProbA Reports due
June 3, 2011 Partial drafts of ProbA Reports circulated amongst participants.
July 5, 2011 Conference call amongst ProbA Pilot participants.
Oct. 3, 2011 Draft ProbA Reports due
Oct. 12-13, 2011 RAS Update
Nov. 7-8, 2011 ProbA Pilot Meeting; LOLEWG Meeting
Jan. 17, 2012 Pilot ProbA Reports due
Late Feb. 2012 Nee RIS completes Pilot review
Mar. 2012 PC Meeting Review Pilot report
June 2012 PC Meeting Approve Pilot report
11 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Outstanding Issues
• Pilot What form should the report take
Content of the overall report
Review process on the way to the Planning Committee
How prescriptive to be about the individual report style
Comparison to LTRA
• 2012 Assessment How to complete the MRA representation
Which LTRA dataset—2011 or 2012
What years to study
Link with LTRA
Schedule
12 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Questions?