procter & gamble © 2009 casc 20 th anniversary megaflops to exaplops washington d.c. wednesday...
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Procter & Gamble © 2009
CASC 20th Anniversary
MegaFlops to ExaPlops
Washington D.C.Wednesday September 23,
2009
Procter & Gamble © 2009
The Story Line…
• Who is P&G?• Why does P&G need HPC?• Background on P&G HPC Capability• P&G’s Journey to creating
Shareholder value with HPC– MegaFlop Era– TeraFlop Era– …and Beyond
Procter & Gamble © 2009
Investors Know P&G By…
• Sales: $79 Billion FY June 30th, 2009
• Net Earnings: $13.4 Billion
• the Worlds largest Consumer Goods Company– Market Cap ~ 167 billion COB Tuesday 9/22/09.
– Three billion times a day, P&G brands touch the lives of people around the world
• P&G builds lasting shareholder value– P&G has paid Dividends (without interruption) since 1890 – 53 consecutive years of increasing dividend payments.– Invest over $2.2 Billion/yr in R&D
• 28 R&D Centers in 10 countries on 4 continents.
Procter & Gamble © 2009
300+ World Brands…
Health Care
Fabric Care & Home Care
Beauty Baby Care & Family Care
Snacks, & Pet Care
Blades & RazorsDuracell & Braun
Consumers Know Us by…
Procter & Gamble © 2009
23 Billion $ Brands…
Health Care
Fabric Care & Home Care
Beauty Baby Care & Family Care
Snacks, Coffee & Pet Care
Blades & RazorsDuracell & Braun
Procter & Gamble © 2009
2nd moment of Truth•Products must perform as expected (advertised) when used.•Performance … leveraging Fundamental Science & Engineering Contradictions.
Materials … strong but soft—even wet, stretch not break, breath but contain, break…not tear.
Packages … creative design is key, strong but light, never leak but open easily.
Liquids … mixtures can’t separate, dispense easily… but stay where applied.
Procter & Gamble © 2009
We make billionsbillions of products a year…
Scale: Sell a Billion $
And sell them for < $10 !
Procter & Gamble © 2009
“Learning” Loop
•Fix it
Build it
•Crash it
Innovation Cycle
•Fly it
Design it
• Costs too much:-One-time-use Equipment
-Testing Infrastructure
• Takes too long:-Cycles of Prototypes
-Development is Sequential
Outcomes
Products are not innovative:
Procter & Gamble © 2009
The HPC Business Rationale
• Replace ‘Slow & Expensive’ learning Cycles with ‘Faster & Cheaper’ Virtual ones.
• Perceived Barrier to do this: – Is the Virtual REAL Enough?
• HPC enables the pursuit of the necessary realism to shape decisions.
Procter & Gamble © 2009
…Atoms to the Enterprise
Supply Chain Through-put & Reliability
Mechanical &Converting
Process
Product/Device/Package
Procter & Gamble © 2009
1. Translate Business Challenge intoScience question
2. Express Science in Equations
M&S Work Process
The modeling process is an iterative one
What if ? , Why not ?,
How much?....
L
p22
41
Shape Decisions
Apply & Deploy:-reframe the question-guide the choices-confirm the situation-stop the project
Display & Validate
Display results For non-expertunderstanding
Solve Equations
1. Solve Equations
2. Build SimulationGather
Input Data
Consumer, ReliabilityMaterial Properties,Geometry etc.
Define Problem
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Modeling of formulations shows the spontaneous formation of vesicles.
Attempted fusion of two vesicles (cross section).
Spontaneous vesicle formation
10 nmVesicles…
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Diaper Trim Removal
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Make a 109 Pringles?
How long does it Take to make a
Billion Pringles?
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…Aerodynamics are Relevant
Make a Billion Pringles…
Procter & Gamble © 2009
Liquid Bottle Drop
WhatYou Don’t In WalMart
Or Your LaundryRoom!
Procter & Gamble © 2009
FSI Simulation
MaterialPropertiesAre TheKey ToPredicting Reality!
Procter & Gamble © 2009
Gigaflops
Kilaflops
Megaflops
Computing Hardware Performance‘Moore’s Law’
SNL ‘Red Storm’
2000
1015 Petaflops
1012 Teraflops
1990 2010
‘peta-Scale’
LANL“Blue Mountain”
LLNL ASCI ‘White’
P&G’s1st, 2nd, & 3rd
Generations
U.S. DOE/NSF ‘Leadership’ Class Machines
Procter & Gamble © 2009
P&G HPC
25
20
15
10
5
1
TERAFLOPS
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.25$0.15
Cost/CPU-hr
2003 201020082004-07
Procter & Gamble © 2009
The Evolution
Of M&S Application
And Business
Value
Pathology
“Virtual”Trial & Error
“Analysis Led” Discovery
Explains ‘why’ existing products & systems work…or don’t work
Predicts ‘why’ designs work…or don’t work (in systems that don’t exist yet)
Defines the option space ‘where’ designswork…or don’t work
……How do we USE the PowerHow do we USE the Power
Procter & Gamble © 2009
The Evolution
Of Computing
Pathology
“Virtual”Trial & Error
“Analysis Led” Discovery
The Megaflop to Gigaflop era
The Giga to Tera flop era
Tera To ExaflopAnd Beyond
For P&G how ComputingFor P&G how Computing
Procter & Gamble © 2009
Comments on the Capacity vs. Capability
DebatesStochastics, DOE, & the ‘FLOOD’ of
repetitive Case Studies.VS.
The ‘Heroic’ calculation of Billion elements/atoms/particles revealing a fundamental understanding that is
practically not possible to observe in the real world.
Procter & Gamble © 2009
Pursuing Realism???
– Solve ‘Bigger’ more complex Problems (Billion Elements, Billion Atoms/Molecules…etc.)
– do parametric studies vs. point estimates (Stochastic)
– Reach more analysts … Automating what it takes an expert to do today
Procter & Gamble © 2009
The Challenges
• Application Software– Parallelism
• Spatial AND – Is Temporal Decomposition Possible?
– FAST Multi-physics Integration– The path from Basic Research to Commercial
• The DATA management issue…• Education …
– Engineering & Science Graduates that are ‘computational’ aware (BS/MS)