production of alternative marine fuels in brazil: an iam ......production of alternative marine...
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Production of alternative marine fuels in Brazil: an IAM perspectiveEduardo Müller-Casseres1, Francielle Carvalho1, Tainan Nogueira1, Clarissa Fonte1, MarianaImpério1, Matheus Poggio1, Huang Ken Wei1, Joana Portugal-Pereira1,2, Pedro R. R. Rochedo1,Alexandre Szklo1, Roberto Schaeffer1
1. Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA), Energy Planning Programme (PPE/COPPE), Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
2. Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
IMO Alternative Fuel Symposium – 10 February 2021
Speaker: Prof. Roberto Schaeffer, Ph.D.
Context for this presentation
• This presentation, based on a paper recently published with the same name, has been
prepared in the context of a broader research project entitled “Prospects for the
Production of Carbon-Neutral Maritime Fuels in Brazil”
• The work was split into 3 different phases:
o Phase 1: Comparative Analysis of Alternative Marine Fuels
o Phase 2: Georeferenced analysis, Lifecycle Assessment (LCA)
o Phase 3: Economic analysis, IAM-based analysis
• Phase 1 will be submitted by Brazil for discussion in the IMO Intersessional Working
Group on the Reduction of GHG Emissions (ISGW 8)
• This presentation focuses on Phase 3 (specifically IAM-based analysis)
Global IAMs (OECD and non-OECD)
Our research laboratory at COPPE,Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Our IAMs
COFFEEBLUES TEA
Brazilian National IAMPartial equilibrium
Energy, land use, materials5 Brazilian regions
Global IAMPartial equilibrium
Energy, land use, materials18 world regions
Global IAMComputable General Equilibrium (CGE)
Economic model18 world regions
In this study
Our IAMs
BLUES
Brazilian National IAMPartial equilibrium
Energy, land use, materials5 Brazilian regions
In this study
Energy
System
Agricultura e
uso da terra
Technology progress
Population
Economic projections
Energy use
GHG emissions
Water demand
Model structure:
Materials
Agriculture
and land use
Petrochemicals
Agricultural products
Linear programmingAlmost 30.000 technological knots
Using the BLUES model in this study
Conventional and alternative marine fuels
First-generation distilled biofuels
Fossil bunker Fossil LNG
Biobased synthetic liquids
Biobased alcohols and
liquefied gases
Hydrogen-based fuels
Fossil fuels (imply direct fossil GHG emissions)
Fossil methanol
Renewable fuels
Fuels that do not imply direct fossil GHG emissions but whose production can be based either on fossil or renewable energy
Fuels with at least 0.10 EJ used in the shipping sector in 2018
Green
GreyBlue
Marine fuel production routes – BLUES modelFOSSIL BIO-BASED
HYDROGEN-BASED
Σp: routes in which bunker is a coproduct
Scenario analysis
Group 1
Group 2
Scenario analysis: resultsLow demand High demand
Gro
up
1G
rou
p 2
Fossil bunker
LNG
SVO
HVO
Synthetic bunker
Ammonia
Methanol
Scenario analysis: spill over effects
Ineffective mitigation
For the cases of high demand
In Brazil B2C scenario, there is a significant reduction in national emissions that can not be associated with IMO’s target
Thank you.Prof. Roberto Schaeffer – [email protected]