Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production,

efficiency, livelihoods and the environment

M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton

WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation21st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi

Production systems for the future:Balancing trade-offs between food production,

livelihoods, efficiency and the environment

M. Herrero and P. K. Thorntonand many others

5th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture | 3rd Farming Systems Symposium 26-29 September 2011, Brisbane, Australia

Acknowledgements

Many people involved:

P. Havlik, A. Notenbaert, M. Obersteiner, S. Wood, S. Msangi, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott, M. Peters, P. Parthasarathy Rao, D. Enahoro, B. Gerard, G. Nelson, S. Robinson and M. Rosegrant

The challenge ahead

Need to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050 (1/3 more than now)

At a lower environmental cost (roughly the same land, low emissions, water and nutrient use)

In a socially and economically acceptable way (equitably, at the right prices, etc)

Food systems have been changing and are likely to change even more!

How does this translate locally and into an actionable research agenda

W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system

Livelihoods in transition – the target is moving!

Photos courtesy of B. Gerard

Can we influence the next transition for the benefit of society and the environment?

Drivers and trends

Population Growth in Developing and Industrialized Countries: 1750 - 2050

6

7

A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as income grows

0

1

2

3

4

5

4 5 6 7 8 9 11Log per capita GNP

Log

per

cap

ita

con

sum

pti

on

of

meat

Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.

10

China

India

Trend

The Livestock Revolution:

Urbanization

8

The demand for livestock products to 2050

Rosegrant et al 2009

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)

Developing 20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developed 20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Cereal yields

Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa

World Bank 2007

Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields

World Bank 2007

A Global Water Crisis 2 billion people

lack access Demand is

growing; freshwater is getting scarce

70 % of total freshwater use is for agriculture

Prices rising

US $ /ton

14 • 3/21/11

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Climate changeCrop suitability is changing

What are recent assessments telling us about the future of food production

Food production

Cereals Production

4%14%

35%

2%

45%

AgroPastoral

Mixed Extensive

Mixed Intensive

Other

Developed countries

Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World

Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high potential, relatively good market access)

Mixed systems in the developing World produce the food of the poor

Maize Production3%

13%

28%

2%

54%

Millet Production

26%

48%

19%

1% 6%

AgroPastoral

Mixed Extensive

Mixed Intensive

Other

Developed countries

Rice Production3%

20%

66%

5%6%

Sorghum Production3%

44%

20%

2%

31%

7%

13%

17%

4%

59%

Mixed systems produce significant amounts of milk and meat

28%

18%

21%

5%

28%

AgroPastoral

Mixed Extensive

Mixed Intensive

Other

Developed countries

9%

15%

19%

7%

50%

beef milk lamb

Developed countries dominate global milk production, significant exports…but…Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World

Mixed intensive systems in the developing World

are under significant pressures

2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia

150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030

Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40% to 2030

Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice Others increasing: maize (East Asia) All in the same land!

Severe water constraints in some places Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others

Mixed intensive systems in the developing World

are under significant pressures (2)

Population density*(people/km2)  2000 2030

agro-pastoral 8 14

mixed extensive 79 112

mixed intensive 273 371

other 28 41

* Baseline scenario

Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints

Annual changes in Cereal Production2000 - 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countriesCatching up

Rates lower than those of population growth

Herrero et al 2009

…but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….

Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030

0123456789

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Increased consumptionIncreased incomes

…but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc)

Some industrialisation….

The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)

Grains1048 million tonnes

more to 2050

humanconsumption

458 million MT

Livestock430 million MT

Monogastrics mostly

biofuels160 million MT

Projected land use changes to 2050 in several integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010)

Cropland+10 to 20%

Rangeland avg = 10%

Natural habitats0 to -20%

Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelands

Faster expansion of monogastric production and intensification of ruminant production with grains

Stover deficits likely to occur in the futureHerrero et al. 2009

Significant biomass flikely to increase prices of food feed crops

grains

livestockproducts

humanconsumption

livestock

energy

-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

beefporklamb

poultryeggsmilkrice

wheatmaize

oil grainssoybeans

potatossweet potatos

cassavasugar cane

milletsorghumchickpea

pigeon peagroundnut

% change from 2000

reference 2030

biofuels 2030

Monogastrics mostly+ ruminants

Further increases?

‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases

India quotes from M Blummel

‘Stovers transported morethan 400 km to be sold’

‘Price has doubled in 5 years, now 2/3 of grain value of sorghum’

‘Farmers paying for stoverquality’

Herrero et al. 2009

Some systems may need to de-intensify or stop growing to ensure the sustainability of agro-ecosystems

Creation of incentives to protect the environment required

Equitable, ‘smart’ schemes for payments for environmental services

Need significant efficiency gains (in crops, in livestock, in other sectors)

Need to understand better what sustainable intensification is

Important productivity gains could be made in the more extensive mixed rainfed areas

Less pressure on the land Population density*(people/km2)  2000 2030

agro-pastoral 8 14

mixed extensive 79 112

mixed intensive 273 371

other 28 41

Yield gaps still large

Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase service provision and improve risk management

These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive systems)

Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009

District Rainfall

(mm)

Yield (kg ha-1) CD (5%)FP FP + IC BN + IC

Tonk 288 1150 1930 3160 280

Udaipur 570 2530 3090 6320 509Mean (5 districts) 1810 2550 (41%) 4340 (141%)

Yield gaps still high in more extensive systems

FP=Farmers’ practice; IC=Improved cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition

Courtesy of Peter Craufurd

How can we translate the results of global assessments into actionable points at the farm level?

complex !different oppotunities

Integrated assessment of farming systems essential

Herrero et al, Science 2010

0

0.5

1income

food security

GHGwater use

external inputs

mixed

pastoral

Trade-offs and synergies

Concluding remarks

Some conclusions

Can we feed 9 billion people: yes, with different resource use implications and costs depending on the pathway/scenario

to change investment paradigm and also start investing in the systems of the future (not only in the what were the high potential areas)

Infrastructure and market development essential

Incentives: Technology could play a key role but we need investment in provision of services

Some conclusions

Sustainable intensification: essential to bridge yield gaps

Need to think of also bridging efficiency gaps (more crop per drop, etc), especially in resource-constrained systems

Is there a role for payments for ecosystems services as a diversification option for smallholders?

Some conclusions

Need multi-scale assessments covering different dimensions (multiple currencies: income, nutrients, biomass, GHG, water, etc)

Process is key: need to ensure adequate involvement of stakeholders in order to achieve desirable outcomes

Contrasting agricultural development paradigms

How much land is available for agricultural expansion? Widely different estimates in the literature

(300 – 800 million hectares) What types of land are suitable? Rangeland vs

forest? Opportunity costs? What kinds of incentives will be required to

develop them? Can their development be pro-poor? What is the magnitude of the investment

required?

Contrasting agricultural development paradigms

Land consolidation vs growth of the smallholder sector Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign

capital investment) Smallholder development possibly more pro-

poor Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour Do diversified smallholder farms promote more

biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?

Contrasting agricultural development paradigms

Land consolidation vs growth of the smallholder sector

More diversified systems = Risk management If smallholders where to disappear in places,

are there sectors that can absorb the idling population?

Smallholder sector largely fragmented: who are the actors required for their fast development?

Thank you!