products production forecast report no 1 · the special controlled products in this report are...

FORECASTED PERIOD:

01 JULY TO 30 NOVEMBER 2020

Gem Squash Broccoli Cauliflower

HORTICULTURE: PRODUCTS PRODUCTION FORECAST

REPORT NO 1

Agronomy and Horticulture Market Development

Division

Horticulture Market Development Subdivision

Enquiries: Ms. Emilie Abraham

Cell: +26481-3092207

Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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1. INTRODUCTION

Report no. 1, covers the local production forecast for the five special controlled products i.e. Potato, Onion,

Butternut, Cabbage and Gem Squash as well as the two monitored crops i.e. Broccoli and Cauliflower. The

production of the special controlled products is monitored by NAB and involves close border period whenever

sufficient local production is expected, and this scheme is implemented in line with the market share promotion

scheme. Monitored crops are those horticultural crops whose production is closely monitored, and have the

greatest potential to be converted as special controlled products in the future. The production forecast covers a

period of five (5) months and it is updated on a monthly basis, while field verifications are carried out on a

quarterly basis. The special controlled products in this report are divided into the following categories: Inclusion

and Exclusions: Inclusion involves all the specific sub- product types of special controlled products and can

only be imported through the Special Import Permit during open border periods (see table 1A). Exclusion

involves sub-product type of special controlled products that does not form part of the special controlled product

scheme and can be imported using the mixed fruits and vegetable import permit. The objective of the special

controlled product scheme is to stimulate local production of horticultural products in Namibia, as a growth at

home strategy implemented by the NAB. Thus, this report discusses the production forecasted per area, Crops

that are expected to be available per particular producer, tabulation and graphical analysis on expected

production versus local demand and subsequently the hectares planted and average yield expected per hectares

for this reporting period.

Table 1A: Show the inclusions and exclusions of the special controlled products.

Product Inclusions Exclusions

1.Potatoes All types, size groups and container sizes of

fresh, chilled, Whole or Cut Potato Irish,

except the “Exclusions”.

Washed white “loose sell” and / or “pre-pack” types of potato;

Washed baby potato. Red fleshed potatoes. All frozen, dried, cooked

and preserved Irish Potato (Whole or Cut).

2. Onions All types, size groups and container sizes of

fresh, chilled, Whole or Cut Onion, except

the “Exclusions”.

White Salad Onions and Red Onions. All frozen, dried, cooked and

preserved Onions (Whole or Cut).

3. Cabbage All types, size groups and container sizes of

fresh, chilled, Whole or Cut Green Cabbage,


Chinese cabbage, Baby Green Cabbage, Baby Red Cabbage, Mixed

Baby Red & Green Cabbage, Large red cabbage, Savoy Cabbage. All

frozen, dried, cooked and preserved Cabbage (Whole or Cut).

4. Butternuts All types, size groups and container sizes of

fresh, chilled, Whole or Cut Butternut, except

the “Exclusions”.

Zebra Butternut and Baby Butternut. All frozen, dried, cooked and

preserved Butternuts (Whole or Cut).

5. Gem

Squash

All types, size groups and container size of

fresh, chilled, Whole or Cut Gem Squash,


-All frozen, dried, cooked and preserved Gem Squash (Whole or Cut).

Whole: any fresh fruit or vegetable that have not been altered from its original form.

Cut: any fresh fruit or vegetable that has been physically altered from its original form, but remains in a fresh state.

Dried: any Fresh fruit or vegetable that have been dried or dehydrated, either whole or in pieces/cuts.

Frozen: any fresh fruits or vegetables that have had their temperature reduced and maintained to below their freezing

point.

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Chilled: any fresh fruit or vegetable with the temperature reduced to around 0C without the products being frozen.

Cooked: Refers to fruit and vegetables that are cooked by steaming or boiling in water, either whole or in pieces/cuts.

Preserved: Refers to fresh fruit and vegetables soaked in brine or vinegar, or other liquids, either whole or in pieces/cuts.

2. PRODUCTION FORECAST PER AREA

It is evident that, onions, potatoes and cabbage are among the top commodities with high tonnage expected for

the reporting period. Whereas the production forecasts for butternut, gem squash, broccoli and cauliflower

will be lower than domestic usage. Detailed expected production per crop per area are shown in table1 below.

Source : NAB,2020

Local Export Local Export Local Export Local Export Local Export

Potato 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Onion 0 0 35 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 95 2

Cabbage 32 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 112 2

Butternut 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 1

Gem Squash 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Broccoli 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cauliflower 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Potato 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Onion 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 200 0 220 7

Cabbage 36 0 126 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 180 5

Butternut 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gem Squash 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Broccoli 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cauliflower 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Potato 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Onion 19 0 191 0 71 0 81 0 0 0 362 9

Cabbage 246 0 458 0 238 0 45 0 0 0 987 18

Butternut 76 0 32 0 47 0 50 0 0 0 205 21

Gem Squash 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 5 0 10 1

Broccoli 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cauliflower 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Potato 800 100 800 100 550 0 550 0 571 180 3,651 51

Onion 1,151 723 240 333 240 333 398 30 195 0 3,643 98

Cabbage 635 0 510 0 605 0 225 0 120 0 2,095 32

Butternut 30 0 30 0 30 0 60 0 30 0 180 6

Gem Squash 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 20 0 40 2

Broccoli 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 18 3

Cauliflower 16 0 16 0 16 0 16 0 16 0 80 3

Potato 825 0 1,110 0 1,665 0 555 0 695 0 4,850 112

Onion 360 450 360 450 395 450 435 450 435 450 4,235 85

Cabbage 415 0 100 0 54 0 60 0 0 0 629 10

Butternut 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 201 20

Gem Squash 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Broccoli 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 11 1

Cauliflower 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0

Potato 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Onion 0 0 75 0 75 0 120 0 120 0 390 9

Cabbage 114 0 114 0 234 0 143 0 98 0 703 13

Butternut 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 45 6

Gem Squash 88 120 88 120 88 120 80 120 80 120 1,024 43

Broccoli 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 9 0 47 7

Cauliflower 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 12 1

Potato 1,625 100 1,910 100 2,215 0 1,105 0 1,266 180 8,501 163

Onion 1,530 1,173 901 783 821 783 1,054 480 970 450 8,945 209

Cabbage 1,478 0 1,328 0 1,169 0 493 0 238 0 4,706 79

Butternut 306 0 76 0 77 0 155 0 31 0 645 55

Gem Squash 88 120 88 120 88 120 105 120 105 120 1,074 45

Broccoli 15 0 15 0 16 0 15 0 15 0 76 10

Cauliflower 18 0 18 0 20 0 18 0 18 0 94 4

Oct-20 Nov-20

SOUTH AND

ORANGE

RIVER AREAS

Total expected

production per

crop per month

ZAMBEZI

REGION

KAVANGO

REGIONS

NORTH

CENTRAL

AREA

KARSTLAND

AREA

CENTRAL

AREA

Total Tonnage

Expected

Total

Hectares

Planted

Table 1 B: EXPECTED PRODUCTION PER CROP PER PRODUCTION AREA

Numbers in the table represents the tonnage expected from each area

PRODUCTION

AREASCROPS

Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

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3. EXPECTED AVAILABILITY

Table 2 shows producers that expect to harvest controlled and monitored crops per production area. This serve

as the guiding tool for buyers to be able to plan their local purchases and eventually achieve their Market Share

Promotion (MSP) requirements. Details on the crops available per producer are shown in table 2 below.

Table 2 continued.

Table 2: EXPECTED AVAILABILITY OF THE SPECIAL CONTROLLED PRODUCTS P

ota

toes

On

ion

Ca

bb

ag

e

Bu

ttern

uts

Gem

Sq

ua

sh

Bro

cco

li

Ca

uli

flo

wer

Po

tato

es

On

ion

Ca

bb

ag

e

Bu

ttern

uts

Gem

Sq

ua

sh

Bro

cco

li

Ca

uli

flo

wer

Po

tato

es

On

ion

Ca

bb

ag

e

Bu

ttern

uts

Gem

Sq

ua

sh

Bro

cco

li

Ca

uli

flo

wer

Po

tato

es

On

ion

Ca

bb

ag

e

Bu

ttern

uts

Gem

Sq

ua

sh

Bro

cco

li

Ca

uli

flo

wer

Po

tato

es

On

ion

Ca

bb

ag

e

Bu

ttern

uts

Gem

Sq

ua

sh

Bro

cco

li

Ca

uli

flo

wer

1 Clemens Makumbi √

2 Rector Mutelo √

3 Altricks Muhapi √

KAVANGO AREA

1 Nangolo Katanga √

3 Kampanza Raphael √

4 Toini Usiku √

5 Mavuto Mwanza √

1 Frans Ngaali √

2 Johannes Kalenga √

3 Abner Shikongo √

4 Andreas Ashimbanga √

5 Asser Moses √

6 Elifas Nuuyoma √

7 Emily Naunyango √

8 Emilie Marais √

9 Erastus Mumbala √

12 Immanuel Hambia √

16 Maria Paavo √

17 Paulus Titus √

18 Shapaka Katangala √

20 Thomas Negonga √

21 Titus Kanyele √

22 Veiko Imalwa √

23 Wilhelmina Heita √

24 Iipinge Philipus √

25 Abel Ashimbanga √

26 Andreas Shihepo √

27 Onesmus Nepembe √

30 Johannes Shigwedha √

31 Elifas Keendjele √

32 Elise Auino √

33 Lucas Nakale √

34 Paulus Kapuka √

35 Protasius Moongela √

NORTH CENTRAL AREA

Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

ZAMBEZI AREA

NAME OF PRODUCER

Local

Exp

ort

KEY : Potatoes = Onions = Cabbage= Butternuts = Gem Squash= Broccoli = Cauliflower =

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Table 2 continued.

36 Kahima Embubulu √

37 Hafeni Hango √

38 Marlize Erasmus √

39 Petrus Atilifa √

41 Emma Sheya √

42 Albertina Erasmus √

43 Maria Nghikelwa √

44 Vasco Siukuta √

45 Lichaha Webster √

46 Fenny Shau √

47 Engombe Timoteus √

48 Thresia Angula √

51 Aurelia Shikesho √

52 Raimo Hipandwa √

53 Laimi Shitilifa √

54 Johannes Kalenga √

56 Maria Shinyenga √

58 Moses Hidipo √

59 Kaino Ndinoshiho √

62 Michael David √

63 Lukas Mushishi √

64 Petrus Shimbulu √

65 Timoteus Shitilifa √

68 Abner Metusalem √

69 Uusiku Thomas (Loide Aindongo)√

70 Pupyenaye Tjavanga √

72 Annanias Ashipala √

74 Isak Twadile √

75 Klaudia Ashipala √

76 Joseph Shifiona √

Lo

ca

l

Ex

po

rt

1 Cobus Coetzee √

2 Jan Cronje √ √

3 Louis Du Plessis √

4 Michael Iyambo √ √

5 Sylvanus Nekundi √

6 Jan Keyser √ √

9 Jorg Spoerer √

10 Neels van der Merwe √ √

11 Hannes/Thilo Himmel √

12 Elizabeth & Harald √ √

13 Fredrik Haixwa √

14 C.J von Molendorff √ √

15 PG Breedt √ √

16 Ndinelago Tshiguuo √ √

17 Ndingana Mupetami √ √

19 Magano Kapia √

20 Hannes Swanepoel √

21 Loui Smit √ √

KARSTLAND AREA

NAME OF PRODUCER Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20Oct-20

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Source: NAB,2020

4. EXPECTED PRODUCTION VS DEMAND ANALYSIS

The analysis done in this section determines whether there is surplus or shortage in a particular product line and

subsequently inform the closing and opening of border decision making.

4.1 TABULATION ANALYSIS

Table 3 revealed that, the total tonnage expected for onion exceeded domestic usage during the entire reporting

season and thus the border will be closed up to December to cater for carry over stock. In addition, butternuts,

cabbage and germ squash local supply will be expected to meet domestic usage in July month. This suggest that

border will be 100% closed for the aforementioned crops, however MSP rules will applies at all times. Details

of expected tonnages, average domestic demand and possible shortage or surplus per crop during the reporting

period are illustrated in table 3 below.

1 Magnus Kurz √

2 Martha Alweendo √

3 Danie Marais √

4 Grunnar Waldschmidt √

5 Lothar Kollmitz √

6 Ludie Kolver √ √

8 Stefan Gaugler √

11 Pantience Mungunda √

12 Dinah Trauss √

14 Etienne Jooste √

14 Sem T. Nepando √

14 Charles Mambadzo √

SOUTH AND ORANGE RIVER AREA

1 Abe Olivier √ √

2 Nico van der Merwe √

3 Francois √

4 Hoekes van Niekerk √

5 Hentie van Dyk √

7 Theresia Aochamos √

9 Kirk

10 Jimmy Kennedy

Kindly note: Producers not be listed herein, it is either because they will not be harvesting any of the special controlled product or they did not provide needed information.

CENTRAL AREA

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Source: NAB, 2020

4.2 GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS

Graphical analysis determines the domestic local production relative to domestic usage per crop. Also, it also

reveals the tonnage reserved for export market per particular month in the reporting period.

It is evident that the projected domestic production for potatoes is lower than domestic usage. However, due to

non-compliance of some traders to 30 /70 prorata which was implemented during 01-30 June 2020 special

permit period the border shall remain closed until further notice. Details of domestic market, average domestic

demand and export analysis for the reporting period, are shown in figure 1 below.

Numbers in this table represents tonnage

Crops Expected Surplus or Shortage Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 TOTAL

Expected for domestic market 1,625 1,910 2,215 1,105 1,266 8,121

Average domestic demand 3,829 3,829 3,829 3,829 3,829 19,144

Surplus / shortage -2,204 -1,919 -1,614 -2,724 -2,563 -11,023

Expected for domestic market 1,530 901 821 1,054 970 5,276

Average domestic demand 685 685 685 685 685 3,427

Surplus / shortage 845 216 136 369 285 1,849

Expected for domestic market 1,478 1,328 1,169 493 238 4,706


Surplus / shortage 821 671 512 -164 -419 1,423

Expected for domestic market 306 76 77 155 31 645


Surplus / shortage 93 -137 -136 -58 -182 -421


Average domestic demand 42 42 42 42 42 212

Surplus / shortage 46 46 46 63 63 262



Surplus / shortage -24 -24 -23 -24 -25 -120



Surplus / shortage -31 -31 -29 -31 -31 -151

Table 3: EXPECTED PRODUCTION VERSUS DOMESTIC DEMAND ANALYSIS

Gem Squash

Broccoli

Cauliflower

Potato

Onion

Cabbage

Butternut

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NAB, 2020

Figure 2 confirmed that, the expected total availability of onion in the local exceed the domestic usage of 685

tonnages during the entire reporting period. For that reason, the total of 3669 tonnages are earmarked for export

market. Details for onion tonnages expected for domestic and export market during the reporting period are

shown in figure 2 below.

Source: NAB, 2020

Figure 3 revealed that, the total local availability of green cabbage in from July to September will exceed the

domestic usage of 657 tonnages. Noticeably, the supply will decline as from October to November months this

could be triggered by hot stress amongst other factors. Hot weather can instigate bolting in cabbages particularly

in an open field production. See figure 3 for details.

1,625 1,910 2,2151,105 1,266

100100 0

0 180

3,829 3,829 3,829 3,829 3,829

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000


To

nn

ag

e

Figure 1: POTATO: Domestic market,average domestic demand and

export analysis

Expected Domestic Market Expected Exports Average Domestic Demand

1530

901 8211054 970

1173

783 783 480 450

685 685 685 685 685

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


To

nn

ag

e

Figure 3: ONION: Domestic market,average domestic demand and

export analysis


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Source: NAB, 2020

Figure 4 revealed that, local production for butternut is forecasted exceed the domestic usage in July, however

the supply decreases as from August towards November. Details on butternuts expected tonnage, average

tonnage demanded locally and tonnage reserved for export market are shown in figure 4 below.

Source: NAB,2020

Figure 5 below revealed that, there will be higher supplies of gems quash (208 tonnage) in July month. In

addition, domestic usage stands at 42 tonnages per month. Thus, 88 tonnages will be available for domestic

consumption, while 120 tonnages will be exported. Noticeably, the estimated production increases as from

October to November. This could be attributed by planting schedules, some producers expected to plant

somewhat end of July towards August and expect to harvest in October and November months. See figure 5 for

detailed information.

1478

13281169

493

238

0

0

0

0

0

657 657 657 657 657

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600


To

nn

ag

e

Figure 3: CABBAGE: Domestic market,average domestic demand and

export analysis


306

76 77155

31

0

0 0

0

0

213 213 213 213 213

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


To

nn

ag

e

Figure 4: BUTTERNUT: Domestic market,average domestic demand and

export analysis


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Source: NAB, 2020

Figure 6 illustrates cauliflower expected local production, average domestic market demand and possible

tonnage reserved for export. It should be noted that, cauliflower is classified as monitored crop for future

possible addition to the list of controlled crops. Regrettably, the expected local production is lower than

domestic usage. This suggest that, broccoli producing farmers should take advantage of this gap and upscale

their production to meet domestic usage. See figure 7 below for details.

Source: NAB, 2020

Figure 7 shows that, there is lower supplies for cauliflower during the reporting period. The tonnages expected

totaled to 18 tonnages lower than domestic usage which is 49 tonnages. Similarly, to cauliflower, broccoli is

also classified as monitored crop and for this crop to be added on the list of controlled crops, there is a need to

upscale local production to meet domestic usage. See details in figure 7 below.

88 88 88 105 105

120120 120

120120

42 42 42 42 42

0

50

100

150

200

250


To

nn

ag

e

Figure 5: GEM SQUASH: Domestic market,average domestic demand

and export analysis


15 15 16 15 15

0 0 0 0 0

39 39 39 39 39

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


To

nn

ag

e

Figure 6: BROCCOLI: Domestic market,average domestic demand and

export analysis


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Source: NAB, 2020

5. HECTARES PLANTED AND EXPECTED YIELD PER PRODUCTION AREA

This section reveals the hectares planted (figure 8) and expected totaled tonnage (figure 9) per production area.

Based on figure 8 Central production area is leading with regard to hectares planted, followed by KARST, North

central and South & Orange river areas. Besides, the hectares planted for Kavango and Zambezi production

areas are lagging behind, suggesting a need for expansion and new entrants in these areas.

Source: NAB,200

Based on figure 9, it is evident that Central production expected higher tonnages, followed by KARST and

South Orange and North central. This could have attributed by hectares planted in these production areas as

indicated in figure 8 above. For detailed information regarding tonnage per crop per production area please

see table 1 B.

18 18 20 18 18

0 00

0 0

49 49 49 49 49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


To

nn

ag

e

Figure 7: CAULIFLOWER: Domestic market,average domestic demand

and export analysis


0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Zambezi

Kavango

North central

KARST

Central

South and Orange river areas

221

200

1559

8251.5

9853

1421

Figure 8: Hectares planted per production area

Hectares planted

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Source: NAB, 2020

5. HECTARES PLANTED AND EXPECTED YIELD

This section reveals the hectares planted per production area and per crop. Subsequently, it shows the

expected yield per production area and per crop.

5.1 Hectares planted per production area

Based on figure 8 Central production area makes up the largest hectares planted, followed by KARST area, and

South and Orange rivers areas. North Central, Kavango regions and, Central and Zambezi region makes up the

lowest hectares planted for the reporting period. See details shown in figure 8 below.

Source: NAB,2020

5.2 Hectares planted per crop

5 6

48

188215

49


Zambezi Kavango North central KARST Central South and Orange river areas

5 6

48

188215

49


Zambezi Kavango North central KARST Central South and Orange river areas

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Figure 9 confirmed that the larger portion of land will be utilized for onion production (189 ha) followed by

potatoes (163 ha), cabbage (67 ha) and butternut (55 ha). Detailed for hectares expected to be harvested per crop

during the reporting period are shown in figure 10 below.

Source: NAB, 2020

5.3 Expected yield per production area

Based on figure 10 central production area expected the highest tonnage, followed by KARST and subsequently

North central and South and Orange river production areas. The lowest yield will be expected in Kavango

regions and Zambezi production areas. See details shown in figure 10 below.

Source: NAB,2020

5.4 Average yield per crop

163

195

67

55

15

104

Figure 9: Hectares expected to be harvested per crop

Potato Onion

Cabbage Butternut

Gem Squash Broccoli

Cauliflower

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Zambezi

Kavango

North central

KARST

Central

South and Orange river areas

221

200

1559

8251.5

9853

1421


Hectares planted

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Figure 11 revealed that the highest expected yield per hectare for the reporting period will be on cabbage (60 tons/ha),

followed by followed by potatoes (52 tons/ha) and onions (43tons/ha). It is important to note that, yield per hectares for

any given crop differ as between farms, and between geographical areas. This differences could be attributed by varietal

choice, weather and management practices amongst other factors. Details on average yield per hectare per crop during

the reporting period are shown in figure 11 below.

Source: NAB, 2020

6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Overall, the report shows that there will be sufficient local supply for onions, cabbage, butternut and gem squash during

the permit period of 01-31 July 2020. Henceforth, the border will be closed for these horticultural products. Although,

potatoes local supply may not 100% sufficient to meet domestic usage as per table 3, the border will remain closed until

further notice. This is due to non-compliance by some traders reported during the special permit period of 01-30 June

2020. However, local supplies will be monitored continuously to ensure potatoes producing farmers have sufficient stock

to supply the local market. Also, it is imperative for producers to update NAB with realistic production forecast data to

ensure effective management of closing and opening of border periods. In addition, to avoid shortage supply in the market,

Producers are further advised to immediately notify NAB in case of deviations from the cropping program or in the event

of crop failure due to factors beyond their control. Conversely, traders are advised to make use of availability calendar

(table 2) and make arrangement for their local purchases and ensure compliance to MSP requirements.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>END<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

52

43

60

12

24

7

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Potato Onion Cabbage Butternut Gem Squash Broccoli Cauliflower

To

ns\

ha

Figure 11: Average yield per hectare and per crop

products production forecast report no 1 · the special controlled products in this report are...

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