professor crump, 2012 how to reason visual aids
TRANSCRIPT
1
1/15/2016 1
How to Reason Visual Aids
Professor Crump, 2012
3 Logical Constructionsdeductive logic
(syllogism)
three premises
All-All-All, etc.
middle term
inductive logic
analogy
(metaphor)
induction
(generalization)1/15/2016 2
Fallacy (Next Chapter)
previewing fallacy
“all dogs have four legs; all cats have four legs;
∴ all dogs are cats.”
“illegal searches get suppressed; this search was illegal; ∴ this search gets suppressed.”
“this team has lost 8 out of last 10 games; ∴ loser.”
Bertrand Russell’s chicken
1/15/2016 3
Examples & Problems1.a. All ABX’s = farfles;
All farfles = Z3's;
∴ all ABX’s = Z3's.
b. No Wookies = feathers;
Chewbacca = Wookie;
∴ Chewbacca ≠ feathers.
c. All 3d Thurs = meeting;
today = 3d Thurs;
∴ today = meeting.
d. All past Thurs, market
up; today Thurs;
∴ market up. (NO)
e. Cogito ergo sum. (NO)
1/15/2016 4
Problems (continued)2. Legal syllogisms: look to the structure
3. Fixing cogito argument? “All reasoning things exist; I reason; ∴ I exist.” Valid?
4. Law school examinations: Why “This, therefore that” or “This, because that”doesn’t work
5. Fixing cogito w/induction?
6. “You can observe a lot by watching:” syllogism? analogy? induction?
none of the above?
7. “I’m going to lose because this court always has invalidated affirmative action plans.” Induction; is it reliable?
8. mixing inductive & deductive: fingerprint uniqueness: inductive; used deductively
9. language problems
10. chain syllogisms
1/15/2016 5
4 Types of Premisespremise forms
A (Affirmo)
“All __ are __”
E (nEgo)
“No __ are __”
I (affIrmo)
“Some __ are __”
O (negO)
“Some __ are not __”
1/15/2016 6
2
bArbArA (AAA)
All dogs are mammals;
all mammals are animals;
∴ all dogs are animals
bArbArI
All dogs are mammals;
all mammals are animals;
∴ some dogs are animals
bArbArE (FALSE)
All dogs are mammals;
all mammals are animals;
∴ no dogs are animals1/15/2016 7
1. and means
2. Barbara: all a are m,
all m are b
a b
m
3. the fEstInO syllogism:
no birds are fish (E)
some fish are edible (I)
some edibles are not birds (O)1/15/2016 8
IRAC
[Issue]
Rule [major premise]
Analysis (facts) [minor]
Conclusion
MPC defines murder as . . .
Evidence here shows . . .
Conclusion: murder
Note limits
Analogy
Induction1/15/2016 9
Propositional (Symbolic) Logic“SG is Russian” (p)
“SG is a thief” (q)
“SG is fit” (r)
“If SG is either Russian or a thief, unfit” =
“If p or q, then not r” = (p∨q)⊃∼r.
Since this is false:
∼[(p∨q)⊃∼r]
(“It is not true that ‘either Russian or thief’ implies SG is unfit”)
1/15/2016 10
∼ not
⋅ and
∨ or
⊃ implies
≡ is equiv to
∼p (not p)
p⋅q (p and q)
p∨q (p or q)
p⊃q (if p, ∴ q)
p≡q (equiv truth value)1/15/2016 11
Problems1. baseball, strike,
p∨(q⋅∼t)∨(r⋅t)∨s∨u≡x
(may be better:
p∨(q⋅∼t)∨(r⋅t)∨s∨u⊃x
2. “If discrim & not
least discrim, or if
nondiscrimin &
burden clearly greater
than gain, unconst.”:
[D⋅∼l)∨(∼D⋅[b>g])]⊃U1/15/2016 12
3
Figure 13: A Propositional Calculus ("PC")
1/15/2016 13
Problems1.(p≡q)⋅[(p⋅q)∨(p⋅r)]
(p≡q)⋅[p⋅(q∨r)] distributive
(p≡q)⋅[p⋅(p∨r)] substitution
(p≡q)⋅p⋅∼r excluded midl
or:
(p≡q)⋅[(p⋅p)∨(p⋅r)] subst
(p≡q)⋅[p∨(p⋅r)] identity
(p≡q)⋅p⋅∼r excluded midl
2. [(D⋅∼l)∨(∼D⋅b>g)]⊃U
3. substitute ∼l for (D⋅∼l):
[∼l ∨(∼D⋅b>g)]⊃U
4. Why? (1) precision.
(2) shorter.
(3) transformation.
1/15/2016 14
1/15/2016 15
structuralfallacy/circularity
fallacy/def’n
fallacy/issue transfmtn
fallacy/authority
fallacy/middle term
fallacy/conflation
fallacy/confl entire premise
1/15/2016 16
semiotics and metaphysicssemiotics = symbols
metaphysics = concept/
true nature of things
1. rookie ofcr: “perp = red shirt; this ≠ red; ˆ not perp”
2. word = “skin of a living thought”
3. “Yes, Virginia”: Christmas symbolism = real; Santa = Christmas symbolism; ˆ Santa = real
4. Importance to logic
1/15/2016 17
linguistic/conceptual(semiotics/ metaphysics)
fallacy/substituted meaning
fallacy/ambivalent middle
fallacy/metaphor
analogy
1/15/2016 18
examples/problems1. circular; def’n: death penalty
“barbarous” or “justice”2. issue transfmtn: “he gave false testimony; ˆ perjurer”3. no middle term:
“mayor → law & order; Hitler → law & order; ˆ mayor = Hitler.”4. conflation: the cogito argumt5. ambivalent middle:
APA → peds “normal”“normal” = acceptableˆ APA → peds acceptbl
6. metaphor/analogytorture = unconstmental depr similarˆ mental depr unconst
4
1/15/2016 19
inductive: structuralfallacy/post hoc = propterfallacy/consistencyfallacy/inadequate sample
too smallunrepresentative
inductive: biasfallacy/availabilityfallacy/anchoringfallacy/configuration
fallacy/clumps/random
1/15/2016 20
examples/problems1 smoking “cause” cancer?
perhaps--“yes”(but what is “cause”?)
2 consistency/samplingdist closer to power line,high cancer rate
3 overcoming anchoringdism of power line suits
4 availabilityblack: racism = procedureproducing disparate resultwhite: racism = intent
5 configuration/completionF-16 pilot fires on fleeing civilians
6 random clumpsnewspaper stories & gun violence
1/15/2016 21
testing inductionsummative vs. ampliativeenumerative v. variative
“calendar: no Jan. 1"“water boils 100°”
abduction & retroductionof mechanism: creation & rejectn of H1, H2etc. about “why”
1/15/2016 22
examples/problems1 state ct, case 1st impression
8 Virginia decis8 other states
2 voluminous hosp data= nonpaternal male child abuseenum. v. variatv
3 abductn/retroductnre nonpaternal abuseH1: maternal prefrncH2: male jealousyH3? H4? H5?
4 Pierce’s optimism, abductn, justified?
Abduction/Retroduction?Morgellon’s Disease:
Painful lesions, skin-crawling feeling, perception of colorful fibers sticking through skin
Related to what?
1/15/2016 23 1/15/2016 24
holisticdialectical
thesis v. antithesis, synthesisstory theory
the “smell test”1 sci theories,
trials as dialectic2 U.S. S. Ct:
“a syllogism is not a story”; ˆ pros can use prej/probative ev & refuse stipulatn
5
1/15/2016 25
epistemology/metaphysicsskepticism, empiricism, rationalism,
coherence
1 syllogisms proved by:
(a) reason, (b) observation,
(c) consistency, (d) nothing?
1/15/2016 26
2 St. Anselm’s ontological proof: God = nothing greater imaginable; greatest must exist since if not, greater; ˆ God exists
3 Thomistic proof: all motion has cause; ˆPrime Mover
4 skeptics’ response
1/15/2016 27
Limits of Logicnonsense, jokes; whimsical choices (discipline)1 appeal of magicians?2 penguins: “look! orange juice!”3 appeal of humor?4 car salesman: picture yourself . . . .faith & reason1 Darwin/Genesis2 Pascal’s bet:God = 0 to 1 prob;heaven = ∞; ˆ expectancy = ∞3 evil in name/faith
a. inevitable?b. use reason/prevent?
1/15/2016 28
economics: the marketthe allocative effect of the market:supply and demandcomparison to central planningthe invisible handequilibrium
Internet Proposal:
Let’s all boycott
ONE
gas station company—
to force prices down!
1/15/2016 29 1/15/2016 30
signaling effect of prices:demand or supply curve shifts; equil price
changes; and equil quantity follows
price controls: shortages
6
Price Controls=“no shale gas revolution in China,” in spite of ambitious goals.
1/15/2016 31
“Price caps on Prescription Drugs Is Bad Medicine”
Op Ed: Chron 1/21/00
1/15/2016 32
Also:
What if government sets a price FLOOR (or requires a useless expense)?
(It works the other way too.)
1/15/2016 33 1/15/2016 34
consumer sovereigntyone & ½ cheers?
1 school vouchers support? oppositn?
2 taxicab fare
reg or competition?
3 the efficiency of enforcing contracts
1/15/2016 35
marginal cost, productivity, & revenuemarginal cost:
1 more unitm cost curve--factors/productionmarginal productiv:
tends to equal marginal costmarginal revenue:
tends to equal marginal costefficient mix/factors
1/15/2016 36
problems1 how much spend to renovate a law firm
property?
2 how decide what renovation ideas to spend it on?
7
1/15/2016 37
efficiencies (benefits)productn efficiencymix of factors/prodinnovationproduction volumeinvestment (prsnt/fut)
distribution efficiencymarginal utilityPareto-optimality
no trade improvessatisfactionnot “equal”
Kaldor-H efficiencytot gains/winners exceed tot lossesPareto-superiorif compensate
1/15/2016 38
1/15/2016 39
problems1 Pareto-optimality
from market:Why?
2 factory’s 100-lbeffluent; citizensprefer 50; $100,000cost, $500,000benefit: K-Hefficiency for $100,000 cost to be imposed(should citizens pay it?)
1/15/2016 40
efficiency and equalityefficiency v. equality
mkt = efficiency,not distrib equalitytolerable?gross inequality?
wealth distribinconsis/efficiency
1 H Chavez’s Venezuela2 scarce necess3 in-kind or unrestricted?4 price controls/tax & transfer?5 erad poverty/reduce billionrs?
1/15/2016 41
macroeconomics
growth, employmt, stabilityinterrelated/inconsis?1 GDP, CPI, unemp2 unemp-inflation–
double digit; Fed cutmoney supplyinflation → 6.2%unemp: 6 → 10+%
1/15/2016 42
Macroeconomics
Keynsian macroeconomy
GDP = Ye
= C + I + G + F
Fig 5, p. 70
investment “reverberates”
the multiplier, k
8
1/15/2016 43
the Fedrediscount rateopen mkt trans
(f funds rate)reserve reqmt
1 departures/Keynsiansupply sidecontrary
3 all Keynsians?4 why do open mkt trans work?5 “new” economy?
low unemp, & low inflatnwhat/Fed do?
1/15/2016 44
market imperfections: structuralmonopoly
evil? rational?restrict output, same motives
oligopolyfew enuf/indivstrategic behaviorprod different’nbarriers/entry
responsesregulationantitrust
1/15/2016 45
problems1 Rockets want SMALLER arena?
2 historical cost: signaling f’n?
3 lag, politics, undercap, noninnovatn→
brownouts; why?
4 prudent cost reg v. used & useful:
higher return
5 conscious parallel in prices → antitrust violatn?
6 antitrust & politics
Monopoly Restricts Supply“As the Economy Improves, Air Fares No Longer a Bargain”
Op-Ed, Chron. 9/5/10
1/15/2016 46
1/15/2016 47
distressed firms & overcompetition
distressed firmsovercompetition1 2nd largest acq
5th largest (distressed)2 let’s start a band! $$![OR: entertainmt law
firm!]3 lender, bus plan, market analysis:
competition
1/15/2016 48
public goodspublic goodshybrid goodsfree riderstragedy/commons1 school privitzn
advocates → vouchers2 trade secret law: efficient?3 Fiss, Against Settlement, bc doesn’t contrib to
precedent bank. Efficient?
9
1/15/2016 49
socioeconomicshomo economicusThaler’s experimentmax price/beerbrought from[exp resort][cheap grocer]1 2 employees,
same m u/money, same opp/embezzl,one does, one no can econ predict?
2 what factors make non-embezzlr?1/15/2016 50
externalitiesexternalities
pollutionaccidents[positive ext]
responsesignorepvt negotiatnprohib activityperform stdscost-internlzn:taxes, permits, subsidies, dmgs
Problems:1. Internalizatn
Better than Standards?2. Level of Deterrence/Expense: Last safety exp. of $1 = exactly $ 1 in safety
1/15/2016 51
problems1 negl std for person
w/disability efficient?2 vagueness/negl std:
inefficient3 Easterbrook:
airline safetyincrease → increased autosless safety
1/15/2016 52
damages & externalitiesaccident claims, efficiencycompens dmgs:
deterrence?compensatn?
punitive dmgs?gap-fillers?overkill?
1 Stachura case:compens & pun & “additional,” illegal
2 Smith v. Wadefn of punitives; gross neg? intent?
1/15/2016 53
unknown factorsincommensurability
shadow marketsirrationality/enforcemtuncertainty/future1 eminent dom, value/strip2 em dom, hist costtransaction costs1 litig trans costs, no-fault?2 higher ins deduct?3 class actn efficiency?
1/15/2016 54
Coase TheoremCoase Theoremrailroad → sparks;
2 poss rules:railroad liable/farmers absorb
if trans costs = 0,immaterial/efficiencywhich rule; partieswill negot eff
argumt for pvt bargwealth effects remainis Coase meaningless?
10
Economic Policy: A Summary of This CoverageI. The Market System and Its Efficiencies
A. The Allocative Effect of the Market
1. Supply & Demand; the Invisible Hand
2. Contrasting Central Control
3. Equilibrium Price & Quantity: No Waste
B. The Signaling Effect of Prices
1. Supply or Demand Curve Change
2. Effect of Price Controls: Shortage (or Waste)
C. Marginal Cost etc.
1. Efficient Use of Factors of Production
2. Marginal Cost, M. Productivity, M. Revenue1/15/2016 55
D. Production Efficiencies
Factor Use; Innovation; Quantity; Investment
E. Distributional Efficiencies
1. Pareto Optimality
2. Kaldor-Hicks Efficiency
F. The Coase Theorem: Efficiency of Pvt Barg
1/15/2016 56
1/15/2016 57
II. Imperfections Justifying Intervention in Markets
A. Equality as a Value (Traded vs. Efficiency)
B. Industry Structure
1. Monopoly, Oligopoly
2. Restriction of Supply
C. Overcompetition and Distressed Firms
D. Public Goods, Hybrids, Free Riders, Tragedy/Commons
E. Socioeconomics: The Failures of “Homo Economicus” 1/15/2016 58
F. Externalities
1. Types of Responses: Ignore; Regulate; Damages
2. Efficiency of Negligence Law: Cost Internalization
3. Actual & Exemplary Damages: Economic Functions
G. Incommensurability, Uncertainty, Irrationality
H. Transaction Costs
I. Information Asymmetries
[NOT “Bargaining Power” (but lawyers use it)]
1/15/2016 59
accounting: journal & ledgerjournal (chronolog)double entry
credit where $came from; debitwhere it went
ledger (categories)dbl entry facilitates
ledger, balance sheet, & income stmtASSETS = LIAB + EQUITYREVENUES = EXPNSES + NET INC
1/15/2016 60
balance sheet & income statement
balance sheet:
yr-end snapshot
income statement:
change over yr
11
1/15/2016 61
problems1. bal sheet: how related to journal?
2. income stmt: income; what return?
accrual or cash?
“accrue” earned but
not rec’d; “defer” rec’d but not earned
1/15/2016 62
1/15/2016 63
accrual accountingaccrual: reserves or allowances
conservatism: loss reas likely, reas estimateGAAP’sdepreciation
1. collect fees in advance: accrual, tax reasons2. accel. deprec:
double-decl balance
1/15/2016 64
judgment and manipulationjudgmt: standardsFASB, GAAP, etc.example: inventory; use
lower/cost or mktLIFO/FIFO/etc.
Footnotescooking books: characterizatn, inconsistency, valuatn,
reserves, depreciation, etc.
1/15/2016 65
“[Enron Officers] Acted in Good Faith”
Principles . . . require estimate . . . Not everything right”
Chron. May 4, 2006
1/15/2016 66
problems
1. lawsuit defendant’s books: (a) defer income, (b) characterize unearned, (c) high reserves, (d) inventory at mkt (pessimistic), (e) cash → sister corps, (f) LIFO, (g) ddb depreciatn
2. how read? (a) ftnotes?, (b) read fns, (c) consider impact, (d) rep of conformity to GAAP, (e) solvent acctnt, (f) audit
12
1/15/2016 67
controls and auditinginternal controls
separatn & duplicatn:custody, recording, authorizatn; receivingcash (2 people)record, paper trail:mech forcing cashaccounted, depositedcheck-paid items: separatn
auditing: verificatnaudit ltr: responsibility; descr of performance; opinion (GAAP; qualificatn)
1/15/2016 68
finance: methodsequity/net worthcapital acctsretained earningsdebt vs. equity1. finance thru retained earnings?2. LBO: equity, 20% of $40,000, or $8,000; borrow
$32,000 @ 8%: $5,750 net means yield of 40%. all equity, only 14%. “leverage.”
3. why not borrow 100%?
1/15/2016 69
time value of moneyTime value of $
why important?compound int
present value $1PV = 1/(1+i)n
PV = FV/(1+i)n
What interest, i?yield (rate/return)
i = (FV/PV)1/n - 11. present val, Sloan’s 5-yr recoveryPV = 1/(1+i)n (assume 10% rate)2. lottery, $50,000 in 20th yr:PV = 1/(1+i)n (assume 10% rate)3. total lottery PV for $1 million?PV = [1 - 1/(1+i)]n/i x (paymt)
= [1 - 1/(1.1)]20/0.1 x (paymt)= 8.5136 x (payment)
8.5136 x 50,000 = 425,6781/15/2016 70
problems cont’d4. yield/return, $1000 stock sold, $2000, 4 yr later?
i = (FV/PV)1/n - 1= (2000/1000)1/4 - 1= 21/4 - 1= 1.19 - 1 = 19%.
5. valuation/investmt:returns $10,000/yr for 15 yrs.
PV = paymt x [1 - 1/(1+i)n]/i= 10,000 [1 - 1/(1+0.08)15]/0.08= 10,000 x 8.56= 85,600
6. Family lawyers’ tactics: value assets your client will receive as low as possible (why)? (How accomplish?)
7. Commercial litigators, re damages: (a) Book value; (b) Liquidation value; (c) “Going concern” (income stream) value.
1/15/2016 71
risk premiumstatistical: std devX Bond, Y Bond:SD of Y is greater,= greater fluctuation
real vs. nominal1. inflation goes up, bond price goes down. Why?2. adjustable rate mortgage: Why cheaper than
fixed?3. fine-tuning risk sharing: yearly cap, overall cap
1/15/2016 72
management approachesclassical mgmt
rule-oriented systemsscientific mgmtadministrative mgmthuman relatns
modern mgmtquantitative theoryorganizatnl theorysystem theorycontingency theory
contemporary mgmtTotal Quality Mgmt (TQM)just-in-time mgmt
13
1/15/2016 73
decisionmakingdecisions
unstructured, uncertainpsych & political conflictgroup conformity
process: due diligence1. mkt share falls, 2 yr, new CEO.
conflict, politics, groupthink?decision called for?
2. why due diligence, & what?(a) new div mgr(b) auditor opinion for an IPO(c) med clinic, new bldg
1/15/2016 74
problems1. flaws:
(a) rule-oriented sys: no manual; emp’ees arrive late(b) scientific: 2 printers, no thought/consolidate(c) administrative: pres reprimands, praises floor workers(d) human relatns: higher wages for dirty factory(e) quantitative: no change in inventory, process for a decade(f) org theory: higher wages in dirty factory, but same system(g) systems theory: mail-order doesn’t understand product(h) contingency: mgr uses same techniques for internet bus as for
failing bank2. TQM & Just-in-Time:
(a) gen practice attorney(b) new rural hosp,(c) apt bldg for students
1/15/2016 75
a decision modeldiagnosis↓
options↓
investigate↓
decision↓
execution↓
review
feedback throughout
1/15/2016 76
decision aidsquantitative/visualformal/informalExplicit consideration of bias, fallacygroups: information, understanding, acceptance (conflict,
politics, norm effect, groupthink)1. decision steps:
(a) military reenlistmt(b) physicians, crowded(c) lawyer: defense case
2. crowded physicians:quant/visual, formal/ informal, bias/fallacy, groups/not
1/15/2016 77
marketing: the business plan
entrepreneur’s dream,
business plan
(a) goals, short/long
(b) market analysis
(c) internal assets
(d) pro forma stmts:
bal sheet, income, cash flow
1/15/2016 78
problems1. describe bus plan ingredients: (a) new GP lawyer
in Madisonville; (b) HDTV venture by electronics firm
2. market analysis for new Madisonville attyproduct strategies:
operational (price)quality (differentiatn)niche (segment focus, customer intimacy)Chevy, Mercedes, Porsche
compare ch. 2 (economics)
14
1/15/2016 79
marketing: three modelsoperational (stable mkt, finance,
structured op, labor/cost suprvisn)
(tech or soc change? competitors? cost pressure?)
(Ford loses to GM)
quality (differential too
great; cost competitors learn; changed preferences?)
segment focus
1/15/2016 80
market shares & strategiesmkt signals: price publicity, pre-announce, traditnl
leader, match or not, discountcooperative: devel new mkt; differentiateaggressive: advertising, terr. expansn, discount, new
entryretaliatn (reciprocal discount, terr. expansn,
advertising, regulators)discipline (fighting brands)commitment (resources, history, burning bridges)
1/15/2016 81
problems1. operational, quality, niche? (a) HDTV
standardized, cheap. (b) “fine furniture, abs dependbl.” (c) adapted to sports.
2. which at risk from (a) innovatn, (b) cost differential betw exp & cheap, (c) changed customer base, (d) unstable mkt share?
1/15/2016 82
problems cont’d3. one firm advertises aggressively.
competitor response? (signals, discpln, commitment, matching, territory, fighting brands)
4. prisoners’ game
5. public policy? retaliatn, etc. bad?
6. Compaq v. Dell, mkt share, both growing. decisions? strategies? competitive analysis?
1/15/2016 83
ethics & politics: history1 Greeks → Burke
& Rousseau?Duty!
2 Who shd own TV station, according to:(a) Greeks, (b) Hobbes, (c) Locke, (d) Rousseau, (e) Burke?
3 sep/powers,Plato → Montesquieu
4 social contract →many unconsist conclusns. Why?
1/15/2016 84
teleology v. deontologyTeleology = nature & purpose
consequentialismutilitarianismBentham, Mill
Deontology = non-purposive(not cost/benefit)Kantimitation principlecategorical impertv
15
1/15/2016 85
problems1 Utilitarianism & slavery--slave owners wd like.
But Kantianism opposes; why?
2 Utilitarianism & vulnerable minorities: how treat ADA, confiscation of amusemt park?
3 Kant: conflicting categorical impo? (performance of promise illegal?)
4 Kant: must you tell truth to terrorist (neighbor in closet?) or: contract bankrupts promisor w/negligible benefit
1/15/2016 86
more historyHegel
dialecticcommunitarianism
Marxdialecticalstruggle →classlessness
NietzchealienationUbermenschenexistentialism
1 dialectics and “compassnt conserv”2 Marxism: growth & retrenchmt3 Fascists liked Nietzche: why?
1/15/2016 87
modern political theoryclassical liberalism
Mill, Smith, Jeffersonmodern liberalism
Green: pos freedomBernstein: democ soc
modern conserveconomictraditionalistsocial
1 all econ liberals? or, econ conservs?2-3 Sweden: 3 out of 5 kronas = taxes. Sweden more moral? U.S. more
moral?4 chart: p. 111 inaccuracies?
1/15/2016 88
consequentialism v. deontology: modern issues
pun dmgs seen as mkt corrective, vs as retributive, proportional justicethe Advil problem?death p, drunk drivers?synthesis?diff ways of same thing?
1 conseq; deontol at “borders”?2 BMW v. Gore: reprehens, ratio, comparables--
deontol measures of pun dm? what role for conseq?3 efficient breach/K: conseq? deontol?4 Bok’s “test of publicity”
1/15/2016 89
distributional ethicsRawls’s method
orignl positnperfect knowlgveil of ignorance
Rawls’s conclusionsequality principl (basic rts)difference principl(wealth, status, only if poorest improved)“maximin”
utopian: ’60's - ’70'sNozick
M. Jordan example“night watchmn state”
Calabresitragic choicesstrategics
1/15/2016 90
problems1 Rawls: perfectionism?
projection2 one value (equalty)
at exp of all others(freedom, autonomy, culture, art, future)?
3 1st (equalty) prin: supermajorities, unequal Senate, contract clause, etc.?
4 2d (diff) prin: the Fed’s monetarism, min wage5 Nozick: must have govt;
why must it favor M. Jordan?
16
1/15/2016 91
other ethical ideastrolley problem
only way save 6 isdivert, killing 1
invol org donor:only way save 6 isharvest his organs
indeterminancyrelativismprocess theorytautologysocial m theorydevel m theory
1/15/2016 92
problems1 nonpros of polyg,
S. Utah: Kantian, util, rule util, relativist, process, soc’l theorists?
2 indeterminancy
sex-sel’n abortn
sex-sel’n infantcd
slavery
1/15/2016 93
political: gov’t typesAuthoritarianismTotalitarianism
ideology; 1 party; org terror; control/communicatns, weapons, economy
Democracyaccountable/electn; pop support; competition; openness/ofc; learn pub opinion; rts/minority, dissent
Civic Republicanismcommunitarianism; debate, negotiation; decisions/ neutral decisnmakers
1/15/2016 94
problemswhy democracy?
indiv dignity, autonomyfreedom, equalityrule of lawtransfer powerconfidence/futureecon benefits
how much civic republicanism?constitutionalism
nat’l goalsstructure/govtlawmakg powrlimitsflexibilitychange
1/15/2016 95
problems1 people’s democracies: equality2 democratizatn/Russia3 separation/judiciary4 3-member “presidency?”5 unelected ofcrs
fed judges; state bureaucracy(indepndnc, consistncy, continuity, comptncy)
6 whose democracy?children & child abuse
1/15/2016 96
Arrow’s TheoremArrow’s Theorem
J1: P > D > NJ2: D > N > PJ3: N > P > D
“cycling”generalityClinton elect’n: runoff?other methods: supermajority, markets1 cycling; inconsistency (Easterbrook)2 changing order: decide juris first3 blame ct for inconsis?4 strategic vote: J2 votes “N”5 log rolling? party whip?
17
1/15/2016 97
the Madisonian DilemmaMadison Dilemmamajority ruleminority protect’ncan’t have both, perfectlypolitical branches vs. judiciaryjudiciary anti-democratic?Carolene formula:
specific violpol processdiscr/ins minorities
1 Carolene work?(abortion: which is discr/ins minor?)
2 Ely’s theory:process/ctsintervene(non-interpretivist? idiosyncratic?)
1/15/2016 98
parliamentary v. separation/powersparliamentaryvoters → reps → execsep/powersvoters reps
exec1 preconst: cong elect pres?2 better resolutn Madsn dilemma, sep/powers? (or just tilt twd
minority?)3 sep/powers = pork?4 line item veto = closer to parl?5 sep/powers & military: Powell6 sep/powers, declare war?7 Arrow’s?8 Venezuela--how?
1/15/2016 99
political partiespolitical partiesantidote/Arrowrecruit; educ; “bridge”; packages; org/goot; incentivestrength: parl; central; discpln; spoils1 weakness, Amer2 costs/benefits
weakness: turnout, platfms, sp interests, stability, locl control
3 tensn: pty loyalty, constituency, indep4 bureaucracy
1/15/2016 100
direct v. representativedirect: removes middle; waste & differencerepresentative: informatn, negotpluralism, elitism1 direct/representv?
initiatives; electoral coll2 Walden Two: leave govt to “few . . . assignd?”3 de Tocqueville: U.S., don’t “hate & fear” law4 Partnership A, 3-member gov; B, direct dem5 Apportn stock: 4 w/25%?
40, 20, 20, 20?
1/15/2016 101
property rights and governmentlesser protn?
Friedman:prop → politcontrary
1 Tushnet:const → prop “bad”
2 Rehnquist:not “poor relat’n”
3 Zapata:“la tierra . . . trabaja”
1/15/2016 102
“equality”?A, 50%; B, 30%; C, 20%;divide 30individual? 10/10/10by the shares? 15/9/6coalitional? 20/5/5avoid invidious? [any]1 coalitional “equality”?2 equal--result, opp?3 needs-based, efficient use?4 invidious/affirm: 22 to A, 8 to C, cut out B
murderer, Repub5 define “equal”?6 one pers/, 1 vote?
18
1/15/2016 103
“freedom” versus “equality”freedom v. equalitytradeoffct mandates ABC 10 each: freedom?equalty-mandates impact freedom (by def’n)1 religious landlord, unmarried couple, Calif
Unruh Act2 mandate equality when outweigh freedom lost?
employmt discrimhousing discrimexceptn/small resident
1/15/2016 104
nat’l selection (“evolutn” or “survival/fittest” misleadg?)non-teleologicalchanges in genefrequencies
Dwin fitnessincreases lifetimerepro success
Lamarckian;sp generatn;creationist
“fossil record”punctuated equil
1/15/2016 105
problems1 nat sel & pub health, competitv, taboos
2 vancomycin resistance
3 pub health response to resistance
4 animal offspring abuse
5 computerz “evolutn”
6 “truel” paradox
1/15/2016 106
inverse square relationshipsA = πr2;π = A (1/r2)grav, elec, other phenomena1. proton → elec
Fg = G(m1m2)/r2
m1 = 9.1 x 10-31
m2 = 1.7 x 10-27
r = 5.3 x 10-11
2. proton → elecFe = k(q1xq2)/r2
3. 2 electrons:r1 = 2 x 10-10
r2= 5.3 x 10-11
4. elec force5. analogy:
compliance% 1/(disagreemt) 2
1/15/2016 107
uncertainty principleuncertnty principl,location & momentm impossible to know
simultaneouslygeneral stmt:observatn changesobservd system1. official opp to ct-ordered pris monitors2. cameras/ct rooms3. focus groups, TV, & Heisenberg
1/15/2016 108
1st law thermodynamics:conserv energy2d law: heat, hot → cold bodyentropy increases/all real processesentropy ≈ disorg≈ no. posbl statesClausius’s stmtmath: ÎS = ÎQ/Tif heat Q flowshot → cold, S increasesicemaker: S of ice decreases, of universe increases
19
1/15/2016 109
problems1. rubber band demo2. air conditioning
3. entropy measuremt of indus concentratn?4. analogy: Wilson’s qual-life enforcemt5. Boba Fett’s “evil”6. “good” entropy
1/15/2016 110
what is “science”?empiricist/positivist
“falsifiability,”Popper/Boyle’s Law?
rationalistconcept/theoryNewton/observatn?
quant theoristall 3?1. falsifiability & biol. taxonomy?2. “tachyons” unscientif?3. S.Ct., Daubert--falsifiability, narrow-minded?4. law/justice = sci?5. science in Brown v. Bd of Educ?
1/15/2016 111
models and pragmatismModels:map, not territrymultiple modlslimits/modlsOccam’s razor1. how bad, still usefl?
wave v. photon2. mult model: Erie doct3. Ptolemaic solar, scientif?
epicycles?4. early Copernican scientif?5. “updated, accurate” Ptolemaic?6. acctg/law modls:
inventory, LIFO/FIFOaccel depreciatnnegl/ reas person
1/15/2016 112
Is history scientific?linear history v. critical, analystheologicalcyclicalcomparativescientific: Spengler, Toynbeeinterpreters, emphathistspositivistshist method1. history “scientif”?2. moral inputs?3. fall of Rome?4. game theo, psych, ethics, scientif?5. original intent = empathy6. hist method & rules/evidence
1/15/2016 113
jurisprudence: selected ideasformalisminstrumentalism1. murder statute, construed by each2. Douglas’s penumbra, Black’s no provisnnatural lawpositivism1-2. Iredell & Chase3. rt to define “meaning of universe”?
1/15/2016 114
idealism and realismLangdell’s formalismPound’s socio jurisHolmes & the realists1. Langdell: inductn & deductn2. Holmes’s positivism: anti-logic, nihilistic? Lewellyn’s realismprocess school1. Brandeis brief2. sentence guidelines & process school
20
1/15/2016 115
feminist jurisprudenceKohlberg & Gilligancommun, compromise, interdep, tolerancecritical legal:deconstructioncritical race1. “relational” K’s, ADR2. fem juris hurt women?3. CLS: property, K’s, & pub-pvt: realism? why no
influence?
1/15/2016 116
law & economics1. econ analysis
crim law
2. analysis/voters
& politicians
3. criticisms
1/15/2016 117
interpretive principlesejusdem generisexpressio unius exclusio
alteriusplain meang: no extrinsambiguous: extrinsmergerintent/drafterstype/document1. 9th amend & expressio unius2. “it is a const we/expounding”3. “men committed shameless acts . . . due penalty”
1/15/2016 118
hermeneutics & related ideashermeneuticsholistic approachlaw & literature1. 21-year-old guru: President?2. does “he” mean women excluded?3. Posner: clause by clause. Dworkin:
got to be holistic; Posner’s holistic is clause by clause
1/15/2016 119
modalities of interpretingBobbitt’s 6 Modalitiestextualhistoricalstructuraldoctrinalprudentialethical1. const of death penalty2. different interp of Bible?3. which modalities superior/disfavored?
1/15/2016 120
rulescategorical rulesbalancing rulescomplex rulesmulti-step
neg commerce clauseunevenly wtd balancing
neg commerce clausemulti-factor
regulatory taking
21
1/15/2016 121
probabilities0 0.5 1zero certaintyPossibility coin flip
1:1 odds = 0.51:4 odds = ?(answer: 0.20)probability ofnot - P = (1 - P).
1/15/2016 122
problems1 math expctatn,
lottery: $4 mil, 100 mil to 1, “value” = $0.042 prob of P win = 0.4.
D win? 0. ? . What other info?3 injunctn formula
tradition: “balance” likelihood/success, harm/P, harm /DPosner:P x Hp > (1 - P )Hd
1/15/2016 123
the product ruleproduct ruleindependence1. draw 2 spades, 2 decks?
1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16(0.25 x 0.25 = 0.0625)
2. Collins case: prob of blonde, ponytail, convertible, yellow, Af-Am, mustache, bearda. independent?b. estimates?c. what probs of?
3. cond’l probs: beard-w/-must4. DNA: indep?5. 1 tail, 5 flips?
1st flip, (1/2)5
for ea place, (1/2)5
ˆ 5(1/2)5; n (1/2)n
1/15/2016 124
Bayes’ Theoremliteral use: figurenew prob, based on old prob plus new ev (of
known occurrence)(draw 2 spades, 1 deck)practical use: figure new probability, based
on subjective estmt & new ev, ORfigure cause/eff from non-statistical estmt &
new ev
1/15/2016 125
Bayes examplesExamples:
a. figure prob of paternity from
(1) subjective estmt based on testimony, plus
(2) blood ev
b. figure causal link for disease from weak, non-signif stats plus new ev of known prob
1/15/2016 126
Bayes math—the basic ideaintuitive: new ev changes prob of a proposition, in proportion to the likelihood of seeing the new ev if the proposition is true versus the likelihood of seeing it if the proposition is not true. (prob/paternity of 0.5, or even odds, is greatly increased by blood ev certain to be present upon paternity but rare in populatn)
22
1/15/2016 127
problems—the math1-2. draw 2 cards, 1 deck.Initial Odds of 2nd being spade? 1:3 (0.25).but: what if know 1st, spade?likelihood ratio = Peviftrue
Pevifnot
= prob of 1st being spade if 2nd is spadeprob of 1st being spade if 2nd is not spade
= (12/51) ÷ (13/51) = 12/13so: what are Oddsnew?Oddsnew = Peviftrue
Pevifnot x Oddsinitial
= (12/13) x 1:3 = 0.0923:33. prob paternity:Oddsinitial = 1:1 [=0.5]new ev: blood compatible; 1/100 in populnso: what are Oddsnew?Oddsnew = Peviftrue
Pevifnot x Oddsold
= 1 ÷ (1/1,000) x (1:1)= 1,000:1
1/15/2016 128
fallacies in Bayes reasoningBayes fallacy?1. Is initial probability accurate?
(1:1 paternity?)2. Is new ev ratio accurate?
(is it really 1 in 1,000?)3. an alternative: use as heuristic (chart)4. public policy use: cause (paternity, disease,
crime)
1/15/2016 129
the interval distributioninterval distribn“Poisson process”interval = gap of time/space betw random events distribn = graph of numbers of intervals of each length
betw baseball losses;betw switchbd calls;betw cars enter fwy;betw nubs, bolt/cloth
switchbd, 3 calls/hr, 5 min avg--overlap?mgr assumes periodicity (wrong!)
1/15/2016 130
an example of false interval reasoning3 birth defects in Pleasantville,
1 month!citizens infer cause:pollution!
backgrnd: 3 defects yr, 10 yr.inference fallacious: prob
of 3/month clump ≈ 0.25.absent: periodicity;
large aberrance (100/month);temporal coincidence(cf. power lines)
1/15/2016 131
understanding the interval distributionPoisson distrib:short intervals exponentiallymore common than long.IT % 1/e(TR), decreasing exp function.
if 3/yr, none1 yr (1 yr intvl),6 next yr to “make up”:more short intsprecisely because short!
1/15/2016 132
problems1. seeming paradox (why hard to grasp, short ints more
common than long?)2. “copycat” crime?
school shooting 1 wkafter another in news. blame newspapers?(what is prob of 1 wk interval, T = 1/52 ≈ 0.02,if R = 3/yr? pretty high.)
3. carjackings different?4. tickets, 1/6mos;
intervls > 2 mos.behav mod?
23
1/15/2016 133
statistics: correlationscorrelatn coeff
tells NOTHINGabout whether we can rely on the claim that a correlatn exists!
null hypothesis =no correlation
p-value = probthat data resultfrom null hypoth
1/15/2016 134
statistics terminologyp-val (observed signif level): prob of similarly strong
data from null hypothesishigh p-value (30%): low confidencelow p-value (1%): higher confidencealpha value (α) = preset signif level demandedtype I err = false postype II err = false negpower = likelihood/detecting existing correlatn (β)
1/15/2016 135
problems1-2 biased coin? 5-flip experimt, 4 heads.null hypoth = coin not biased; 4 heads random.set α = 0.05 (or 5%).3 compute p-value, (or prob of 4 of 5 heads; null
hypoth).prob 5 heads = (1/2)5 = 1/32prob 4 heads = 5(1/2)5 = 5/32p = 6/32 = 0.187, almost 20%. ˆ inconclusv.4 graphic view of expermt: Figure 7
1/15/2016 136
problems continued5 now, 10-flip expermt produces 9 heads.p-value = prob/null= (1/2)10 = 10(1/2)10
= 11/1024 = 0.0107.P<α; significant.6 two-tailed test:prob of random 9 heads or tails7 power (β): 10-flipexpmt w 9 heads has more power than 4 heads in 5.
1/15/2016 137
the normal distributionidealized (theoretical)normal distributn equationμ = mean = avgσ = SD = std dev(dispersal)bigger σ = flatter1 compare normal curves:
μ = 0, σ = 0.001μ = 0, σ = 1,000
2 mean: compare mean hts, all college studnts, w mean of varsity basketball
3 pro basketball, ht > 3 SD?Shaquille O’Neal?
1/15/2016 138
statistical estimationcentral limit th:sample of means, large enuf, approaches normal
distributn even if populatn not normal distσ and μ are populatn stats (theoretical)usually: sample; obtain estimatrssample mean = 0, estimatr of μsample SD = s, estimatr of σbecause of central lim theorem, can tell how good
sample by seeing how nearly normal “confidence intvls”
24
1/15/2016 139
confidence issuesexample: what is mean, μ,of Ajax Corp’s applicant typing scores?hypothesis: it exceeds 40.null hypo: μ ≤ 40.set α = 5%; 95% conf intervlfor scores, fig. p. 243:
6 30's, 12 40's, 6 50's, & 6 70's.first step: figure the sample mean, 0.easy: [6(30) + 12(40) + 6(50) + 6(70)]/30 = 46.but: can we rely?how confident?
1/15/2016 140
1. compute s, sample SD.figure deviations & squares30 scores, = 30-46 = -16
(dev)2 = 25640 scores, = 40-46 = -6
(dev)2 = 36 each50 scores, = 50-46 = 4 for 50
(dev)2 = 16 each70 scores, = 70-46 = 24 for 70
(dev)2 = 576 eachsummed sqs = 6(256) + 12(36)
+ 6(16) + 6(576) = 5520.
sum of (deviatns)2
s = q number of data
= 5520 = p 184 = 13.5q 30
2. how well does s fit?are 68% of data, or 18 of 30, within 1 SD of 46? (close: 20)are 95%, or 28.5, w/in 2 SD? (close: 30)
problems
1/15/2016 141
problemsconfidence intervals =
int around estimator,w/ req’d α value
if α = 0.05, sayingμ (mean) = 46 ± 5,means 95% confit’s betw 41 and 51.
1. compute 95%conf int for 0= 46: beyond scope,but gives intervl = 5;0 = 46 ± 5.signif (barely)
1/15/2016 142
problems cont’d2. recall 9 heads
coin flip:95% conf int,10 flips honest,≈ 2 to 8 heads.(replicates signif)
3. Cimino case:ct believed 99%better than 95%shd have figuredconf int for null
1/15/2016 143
errorscensus errors:
validity (scorer not see);reliability (diff scorers);recordation
sampling bias:sample frameconvenience sample (grab)
selection biasnonresponse biasdealing w/ bias:
quotassecondary meascontroldouble blinddisclosure
1/15/2016 144
problems1 bat avg exactly .750,
last yr, .283.misleading?
2 power line problem:compare 1 area to another.sample frame?
3 Hite report:100,000 surveys,5,000 responses.conclusn: “outcry” bias?
4 Hite claims respondents “mirrored” pop.sample bias?nonresp bias?
5 spanked kids behaved worse.bias?hosp has hi mortality rate.bias?
25
1/15/2016 145
the theoretical normal distribution
for theortcl normal:
1 SD ≈ 68% of pop
2 SD ≈ 95%
3 SD ≈ 99.7%
or: approx 68% of
area under norml curve
is w’/in 1 SD of mean.
1/15/2016 146
psychologypsychology “science”?
Skinner’s pigeonsAsch & MilgramGardner’s 7 “intelligncs”Freud, Adler, Horney, Eriksonlearning theory v. theories/personality
1. Freud scientific?2. “mind to behavior & back to mind”3. Freud (or Gardner) allowed/testify? [what if they
know more/anyone else?]
1/15/2016 147
The Diagnostic & Statistical Manual
DSM
deliberate stereotypes?
1. sexual orientatn: “sociopath per disturbnc”; “sexual deviatn”; “pers disorders etc.”; “sexl orientatn disturbnc” (why the changes?)
2. today: “sexl disorder,” “persistnt, marked distress.” (changes “scientific”? why or why not?)
1/15/2016 148
one type of disorderpersonality disorders(“maladaptive”):
narcissistic, dependent,obsessive-compulsv (8 criteria)antisocl (see criteria)
1. the driven doctor:obsessive-compulsv?
2. differences of degree?(some pathologies “good”?)
3. intervention for the driven doctor4. lack/consistency:
the “voices” expermt5. “sociopath,” then “sociopathic pers,” then “antisocial.” scientific?6. Henry Lee Lucas: diagnosable?7. drug/alc dependncy: 13.8%.
a “disorder”?
1/15/2016 149
disorders generallypers disorderspsychosesschizophrenia (types)dissociative disordersdiss amnesiafugueidentity disordermood disordersmajor depressivebipolaranxiety disordersphobiasgeneral anx disorder1. common cold (pers disorder), cancer (schizo)2. split personality3. suicide & depression4. categorize: (a) postpartum disorder, (b) PTSD, (c) somatoforms5. disorders, insanity, crim responsiblty--undiff schizo, severe
1/15/2016 150
etiology and treatmentbiological/genetic modelmedical modellearning theory model
stimulus/responseconditioningexecutive monkey
psychoanalytical modeltreatmt: 1. learning (aversion, systematic desens); 2.
psychotherapy (free assoc, resistance, transference, interp; humanistic); 3. cognitive; 4. medical
26
1/15/2016 151
problems1. schizo etiology:
genetic? med? psych? treatmt:psychotherapy?learn th? med?
2. systematic desens:TV violence? def atty shows gruesome pics early?
3. Seligman’s learned helplessness; useful/ depression? why are attribution, non-universalization, and temporariness relevant?
1/15/2016 152
problems cont’d4. S.Ct.: can’t protect child witness w/out
“particularized need.”
cf. borderline pers:
unpredictable factors.
denial (toughness) may lead to misdiagnosis by judge?
5. cross examining the “shrink”: can’t predict behavior; 5 out of 11 characteristics; disagreemt (what if your witness?)
1/15/2016 153
“Getting Ahead: Does Intelligence or Personality Count More?”
Early on, intelligence
Once learn job, personal skills
Chronicle April 18, 2013
1/15/2016 154
cognitive dissonanceFestinger: cognitive dissonance(inconsistent cognitive inputs = dissonance, discomfort;
people want to reduce)torturer disparages victim; snitch sees law enf as nobleZimbardo’s “prison”behavior → attitudes;when attitudes → behavior?(1) no repercussn;(2) behavior linked;(3) attitude studied
1/15/2016 155
attribution, attraction, persuasion, authority & conformityattributn: to pers, to situation
fund attr error(Napolitan & G)
attraction: exposure, phys, similarity, rewardpersuasion:
audience rewardfamiliar, attractive speakeridentificationframingsmall steps(sign experiment)dissonance: horrible consequences; commitmt authority, conformity (below)
1/15/2016 156
problems1. interrogatn & cog diss: confront falsehood,
omniscience, suggest mitigation2. lawyer persuasn:
(a) jury scenarios; (b) early themes; (c) thank jurors; (d) blaming victim; (e) voir dire commitmts; (f) x-exam, start w/agreemt; (g) “Sarah’s company”; (h) over-repetition
27
1/15/2016 157
conformity and authorityAsch’s conformity expnormative v. informtnl group influenceconformity increase:
insecurity, noncommitted, unanimity, status, size, ambiguityMilgram’s obedience expobedience increase:
status, role model absent, phys proximity, depersonalization1. non-unanimous juries2. group deindividuation3. interrogation: closeness4. groupthink: Bay of Pigs
1/15/2016 158
game theory: payoff matricesBattle/Bismarck Sea
zero sumsaddle pt (Nash eq)
dominant/inadmissvalue of the game“minimax”
1/15/2016 159
problems1. reframe Bismarck as cops & robbers
2. psych impact of framing
3. utility: may not be same for both (e.g., Imamura destroyed/ 2 days)
4. utility matrix, Fig. 6
5. psych effects vs. strategy: Maximizing Diff
players choose lower payoff!
1/15/2016 160
game objectivesmaximax: maximize
best possible outcomeKenney chooses row w/ 3 days, heedless of Imamuraromantic; lottery
maximin: maximizeworst possible outcome
pessimistic; defeatistminimax: minimize
opportunity loss
1/15/2016 161
problemslimit of minimax:uncertainty (Imamura’s Konaranoku bd will tell him, go
south)1. greedy father’s child cust gambit: mother choose
minimax?2. Rawls’s maximin: maximize worst3. lawyer → maximax:
$100,000 offer; 0.5 prob of verdict; 0.1 prob of $500,000; 0.9 prob of $100,0000.5 x [.9($100,000) + .1($500,000)] = $70,000settle! maximax foolish.
1/15/2016 162
mixed strategiesmixed strategy
burglar v. guard:E safe, $10,000W safe, $20,000
mixed strategy:2 red coins, 1 blueguard → 2/3 W;burg → 2/3 E(twice as often to side w/half $!)coin essential?no; inscrutability
28
1/15/2016 163
problems1. larger matrix
2. mult saddles: all equivalent
3. Morra: call 1, 2, 3; put out fingers.
9 x 9 = 81 sq.(?)
mixed strategy, 5/12, 4/12, 3/12; die + coin(?)
4. every finite game solvable
1/15/2016 164
psychology of gamespsychology: people play saddle games well; NOT non-saddled.dollar auction: 2d player pays his bidevents: 2d bid; over 50¢; over $1.Concorde fallacy
entrapmt/escalatnastonishing frequency
1. auction strategy and “lock-in”2. motivational change:
men v. women3. the uneconomical, unresolvable dispute, labor strike, arms race
1/15/2016 165
military strategyM-E-T-T-T cklistintelligence, flexibility, maneuver, surprise“paradox”: “reversal”; bad is good1. concentrated force2. positional flexibility3. simplicity: “friction”4. unified command5. surprise & paradox6. economy of force7. protection/command8. center of gravity9. initiative/reactive10. scarcities/attrition11. timing12. culminating pointfight outnumbered & win1. frontal attack2. flanking3. infiltration4. penetration5. turning movemt
1/15/2016 166
1/15/2016 167
problems1. tradeoffs: concentration v. maneuver, maneuver v.
command, surprise v. timing, etc.2. choosing maneuver: METTT. turning: dug-in enemy.
infiltratn: punctuated lines. when (a) flanking? (b) penetration?
3. least expectatn: Israel v. Syria; bad-road attack, diversion for frontal(!)
4. suicide pass as primary strategy? consider flexibility, concentrated force, protection/command, complexity, surprise
5. lawyer litigation tactics, (a) thru (h)6. culminating pt, litigation?
1/15/2016 168
rules of combatrules of engagemt?clandestine/open viol1. animal ordinance: guilty if “not in business/boarding
animals”?2. “intentional” grounding?3. world “less moral”? Saddam’s mustard gas, etc.: just
desserts?4. strategies/rulewriting: detectable; each elt provable;
principled/fair; automatic enforcemt5. avoiding behavior: consider dollar auction! outside
mentors; don’t try to outdo; deal w/failure; don’t expect ideal enforcemt; tactful “no”
29
1/15/2016 169
mixed-motive gamesBattle of the Sexes
Chicken
1. contrast to Bismarck2. madman/lock-in (particularly Chicken)3. reframing Chicken: “Child Custody Suit”
1/15/2016 170
the prisoner’s dilemmaPrisoners’ Dilemma1. reframe as Arms Race2. reframe as Golden Rule3. effect of communicatn?Iterated game; AxelrodTit for Tat (“TFT”)1. nice, retaliatory, forgiving & clear?2. compare Joss to TFT?3. last-move nastiness?4. compare TFTT to TFT?5. Axelrod’s nat selectn?6. compare to Perlmutter’s lawsuit letter?7. psych differences: men and women8. maximizing diff game: perverse
1/15/2016 171
rhetoric: questioning/listeninginvestigative ?-ingfunnel sequence: narration, exhaust, specific1. depositions2. tell me what happened? is that all? difference/trial3. manager/doc examplesactive listen: (a) repeat, (b) ask, (c) repeat what’s added (& ask), (d) ask what do, (e) repeat, (f) tell what agree, (g) negotiate1. psychotherapy2. when not to use?3. agitated/abusive4. urge to defend5. “I” statemts
1/15/2016 172
barriers to communicationsocial resistance: status
incong, etiquette, hostilitycognitive: goal inconsis,
self-esteem, repression, perceived irrel., memorymanifestation v. causefalsehoods & story theory
[Russell’s chicken]resistance, passive aggreasons for resistanceinconsistencyfalsehood from truth--tellers: suggestion, confabulatn, hardeningworst method: demeanor
1/15/2016 173
overcoming barriersovercoming barriers
communicate expectatnauthority/conformityempathy/diss reductnmotivational stmtsconfidentiality promisetiming/small stepsconfrontation: “clarificatn,” role-play (indirect), direct
1. Clinton/Lewinsky:soc’l factors, goal inconsis, self-esteem, perceived irrel
2. Clinton: indicatns/falsehood; why associates duped?3. Clinton: use of techniques
1/15/2016 174
persuasionpersuasion: Aristotlesimple, clear, expressivesymbolic detailconnotationsraise/lower the stduse opponent’s rhetoric1. restaurant selling:
“nice, crispy fries”2. doctor’s analogy3. D atty: “drunk driving” case, “machine” (intoxylizer)
Pros: “driving under influence”; “instrument”
30
1/15/2016 175
negotiation1. firm fair offer2. conceal settl pt (unreas
offer)3. opponent, 1st reas4. irrationality5. blame client6. mediator7. merits8. appeal/mercy9. bargain vs. self10. bargain vs. each other11. ganging up12. clubbiness13. timing
14. activity15. collateral cons.16. lock-in17. focal pt18. drafter19. agenda20. false demand21. reverse psych22. phys factors23. involve princpl24. good feelings25. test/strength
1/15/2016 176
problems1. ethical?
“make deal, reject, raise demands”2. importance/lawyers3. merits--irrelevant?
[both, maximin?]4. (a) no liability; out-pocket only (b) get w/client & make
offer, I’ll see if can get mineto accept (c) client unreasonable, offer 5000more (d) do what’s fair(e) I’ll make deal w/other defs(f) last thing she wants is cashed out
1/15/2016 177