Hadera EnergyTech Conference, Tel Aviv, April 2016

Professor Dr. Pavel KabatIIASA Director General and Chief Executive Officer

Long-term Strategic Energy Solutions

CONTENTS

• Energy in the long-term• An integrated approach to meet multiple energy

challenges• How technology can help• What investments are needed for a sustainable

energy system• Future collaboration

Energy in the long-term

Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution

An integrated approach to meet multiple energy

challenges

Energy Access

Energy Security

Climate Change

The Key Energy Challenges

Air PollutionHealth Impacts

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Total G

lobal Policy Co

sts (20

10‐2030)

Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014

Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200BaselineGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Source: Fricko et al, 2014

Global Water WithdrawalsA Pathway with Full Portfolio

Efficient Urban Energy Systems

11Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012

How technology can help

time

costperformance

Benz Motorwagen (1885)

Ford Model T (1914)

Steam-powered Cugnot (1769)

transformational

disruptive

existing technology

We seek technologies that lead to

fundamentally new learning curves

Source: Steve Chu, 2013

Incremental & Disruptive Technologies

cumulative output - experience

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Source: Grubler et al, 2012

What investments are needed for a sustainable

energy system

Oil

Gas

Coal

Electricity Transmission

Fossil Electricity

Renewable Electricity

Other conversion

2050

Today(941bill.)

No Sustainability Policies(2558 bill.)

2005-2010

Investment Portfolios World

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Efficiency(marginal)

OilGas

Coal

Electricity Transmission

Fossil Electricity

Renewable Electricity

CCS Other conversion

Oil

Gas

Coal

Electricity Transmission

Fossil Electricity

Renewable Electricity

Other conversion

2050

Today(941bill.)

No Sustainability Policies(2558 bill.)

2005-2010

Investment Portfolios World

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

GEA-Efficiency(2849 bill.)

Future collaboration

IIASA

An international research institute that conducts multidisciplinary research to help policymakers find long-term solutions to global and regional challenges facing

countries

Israel Energy Outlook

Possible project:System analysis of plausible futures for the Israeli energy sector within the broader regional and global context

THANK YOU

FURTHER INFORMATION:www.iiasa.ac.at