Professor Steve Stradling

Napier University

SCOTLAND’S NATIONAL TRANSPORT STRATEGY

TUESDAY 30th MAY 2006 DUNBLANE HYDRO HOTEL

STEPHEN STRADLING TRANSPORT RESEARCH

INSTITUTE NAPIER UNIVERSITY

ENCOURAGING PEOPLE TO CHANGE THEIR TRAVEL

BEHAVIOUR: THE CHALLENGE

What’s going on? Some recent press coverageBush: US ‘Addicted to oil’

As crude prices rise, so do US energy majors’ share values.

Ford, which is shedding 30,000 US jobs and closing 14 north American factories, is also heading eastwards. Its Russian plant was working flat out … and its Turkish operation was expanding. A west German car worker at VW earns 10 times more an hour than his or her Czech counterpart and at least 30 times more than a Chinese worker. … VW is shedding 20,000 jobs and Mercedes cutting 16,000.

We carry on buying new cars, patio heaters and cheap flights… ministers continue to have an Augustinian attitude to a problem that might be summed up as “Make us green, Lord – but not yet”.

Governments are almost certainly wrong to believe that action on climate change means economic stagnation. On the contrary, it would probably lead to an unleashing of a new clean industrial revolution based on green technology.

“Many people care about the environment but they are stuck in unsustainable patterns of behaviour because they just don’t have access to reliable, affordable alternatives. It is wrong to assume that they have free choice in the matter. Consumers need practical incentives to buy ‘green’ goods and services and a very clear signal that the government is putting its own house in order.” Professor Tim Jackson, U Surrey

A new survey reveals that the majority of councils feel they are making little progress on tackling climate change, blaming a lack of political will.

In Buckinghamshire, the council started by trying to reduce car commuting by its own staff. It negotiated travel discounts with the local bus and train companies; installed new cycle parking; set up a car-sharing scheme; and stopped subsidising the expensive parking costs of new employees. The number of cars driven to work fell by 40% in five years.

SCOTLAND’S NATIONAL TRANSPORT STRATEGY

The action we will take

• Facilitate economic growth

• Promote accessibility

• Promote choice and raise awareness of the need for change

• Promote modal shift

• Promote new technologies and cleaner fuels

• Manage demand

• Reduce the need for travel

• Promote road safety

Primus inter pares

Jobs or planet?

‘Don’t risk it’

“Our transport system exists, not as an end in itself, but because people need to get to jobs, school, shops and services and want to visit friends and relatives and enjoy their leisure activities; and because transport infrastructure is essential to businesses and a competitive economy.” Chapter 1. Introduction. 1

OBLIGATIONS, OPPORTUNITIES and INCLINATIONS in TRAVEL CHOICE

What I have to do What I’m able to do What I’d like to do

Driving is a skill-based, rule-governed, expressive activity involving real-time negotiations with co-present transient others while avoiding

intersecting trajectories and loss of control.

What is transport for?

What is wealth for?

“The usefulness of wealth lies in the things that it allows us to do –the substantive freedoms it allows us to achieve.”

Amartya Sen 1999, Development as Freedom

“Our idea is to get China wealthy as quickly as possible so they can pay for all the value-added goods and services we can provide.”

Sir Digby Jones, DG CBI. 2006

Area None One Two Cars per 100 or more

households

Scotland 34 43 23 93

Highlands & Islands 26 49 26 106

Mid Scotland & Fife 27 46 27 106

South of Scotland 28 46 27 105

North East Scotland 31 44 26 101

West of Scotland 33 42 25 96

Central Scotland 34 43 23 94

Lothians 36 44 20 88

Glasgow 55 35 10 57

Scotland: population of just over 5 million people

in 2.2 million households with 2.0 million cars

Percentage of respondents from households with access to a car for each of five annual household income bands

9788

67

43

32

0

20

40

60

80

100

Top 2nd 3rd 4th Bottom

Percent of Scottish households without access to a car for private use by location and income quintile

Lo-est 2 3 4 Hi-est Total

Large urban 74 72 51 28 8 44

Other urban 68 64 38 17 4 33

Small remote towns 66 60 37 19 5 34

Small accessible towns 65 55 31 12 3 26

Accessible rural 48 44 21 8 1 18

Remote rural 44 38 19 6 2 19

Total 65 62 39 18 4 33

Differences between those with and without access to a car

Finances large differences across annual household income quintiles

Mobility difference to bus use; no difference to train use; less purposeful, more leisure walking; higher bicycle access

Social networks differences in frequency of contact with relatives and friends

Sports & cultural large difference in frequency of visits to sports and cultural destinations

Neighbourhood large differences in neighbourhood tranquillity

Civic participation differences in rated community involvement, volunteering and recycling;

no difference in voting (whether)

Health differences in health status (self-report; GP visits; long-standing illness, health problem or disability that limits your daily activities or the kind of work that you can do: 26.6%)

Autonomy - feeling in control

‘One of the reasons I like driving is because I’m in control’ [female; age group 36-45; drives 100+ miles per week];

‘The problem I have with public transport is that I don’t feel in control’ [female; age group 26-35; drives 100+ miles per week];

‘You don’t feel in control at all on public transport and you’re worried about connections all the time so you’re having to be aware of what the time is every moment’

[female; age group 26-35; drives 10-50 miles per week];

‘Last year I came in by public transport for about two weeks. It was hell. Freezing to death on platforms waiting for trains that were late. You’re not in control of your life – that’s the only way I can describe it, you’re just not in control. If you know the traffic jam’s there then there are ways to get around it’

[female; age group 26-35; drives 100+ miles per week].

Can’t Change Won’t Change

For all the core lifestyle activities I currently undertake by car there are no practical alternatives to car use

STRUCTURAL DEPENDENCE

no opportunity to change

11% 1 in 9

For all the core lifestyle activities I currently

undertake by car there are practical alternatives to car

use

CONSCIOUS DEPENDENCE

no inclination to change

1 in 11 9%

COULD CHANGE

11% 9%80%

Meeting travel needs: we’re all multimodal travellers

In Scotland in 2004 around 70% of adults reported journeys were by car or van.

However most Scottish adults (97%) are multi-modal travellers, with just 3% using only one mode and

half having used 7 or more transport modes.

Viable alternatives for current car trips

WALK

Escorting children to school 72%

Visiting friends and relatives 65%

Escorting children to leisure activities 51%

BUS (and Taxi)

Town centre shopping 69%

Evenings out 58%

Weekend leisure activities 52%

Travel to work 45%

Supermarket shopping 43%

TRAIN

Weekends away 47%

4:4:2

There is an alternative for about four in 10 car trips – a bus service at the right time, or the trip is short enough to walk or cycle, and there is a safe route.

For another four in 10 trips, modest improvements to the public transport network, or provision of a new cycle lane, would provide a practical alternative to driving.

A car is indispensable for only two in 10 trips.

Psychological aspects of driving

Agree

Driving a car gives me freedom to go where I want when I want95%

Driving a car is a convenient way of travelling93%

BUT I feel car driving can be stressful sometimes 67% AND I am trying to use my car less 49%

A.Dudleston, E.Hewitt, S.Stradling & J.Anable (2005) Public Perceptions of Travel Awareness – Phase Three. Edinburgh:

Scottish Executive.

• DIE – HARD DRIVERS - 26% of Scottish drivers (20% of Scottish adults)

• COMPLACENT CAR USERS – 28% of drivers (21% of adults)

• MALCONTENTED MOTORISTS – 24% of drivers (18% of adults)

• ASPIRING ENVIRONMENTALISTS – 24% of drivers (18% of adults)

• they exhibit attachment to the car• they are willing to consider alternative modes • they are already multi-modal• they feel willing and able to reduce their car use• they are aware of transport issues• they believe in and identify with environmental problems

4 car driver segments which differ in the extent to which:

Die-Hard Drivers (DHD) like driving and would use the bus only if they had to. Few believe that higher motoring taxes should be introduced for the sake of the environment and there is overwhelming support for more road building to reduce congestion. There are slightly more males than females in this group.

Car Complacents (CC) are less attached to their cars but currently see no reason to change. They generally do not consider using transport modes other than the car and faced with a journey to make will commonly just reach for the car keys.

Malcontented Motorists (MM) find that current conditions on the road such as congestion and the behaviour of other drivers make driving stressful, would like to reduce their car use, but cannot see how. They say that being able to reduce their car use would make them feel good, but they feel there are no practical alternatives for the journeys they have to make. They are slightly over-represented in accessible rural areas of Scotland.

Aspiring Environmentalists (AE) are actively trying to reduce their car use, already use many other modes and are driven by an awareness of environmental issues and a sense of responsibility for their contribution to planetary degradation.

Total

Not thinking about it 54%

Thinking or doing something about it 46%

‘There used to be a time, years ago, when you could say it will take an hour to do that journey. Now, you say that journey takes an hour but it could take three, or 50 minutes if you have a good

run. There is no clear time-scale you can allow to do a certain journey, because of bottlenecks for no reason at all.’

‘Driving in Edinburgh gives me a headache because of the traffic congestion and the impossibility of finding a parking space.’

‘I’ll try not to go into the city centre unless absolutely necessary (no parking, very expensive) and try to do most of the shopping

in malls outside the centre.’

‘General dislike of public transport as have to travel with general public.’

Cutting my car use …

The non-car users divide into three types:

• CAR SCEPTICS - 35% of non car users and thus 8% of Scottish adults

• RELUCTANT RIDERS – 30% (7% of adults)

• CAR ASPIRERS – 35% (8% of adults)

Car Sceptics are travel aware, environmentally aware, managing without a car, more likely to use bicycles and to support constraints on unfettered car use.

Reluctant Riders tend to be older and less well off, involuntarily dependent on public transport and where possible travel as passengers in others’ cars.

Car Aspirers, more of whom are unemployed, from social class DE, and environmentally unaware, need better access to destinations than their current high bus use provides and for this and other reasons aspire to car ownership. “It just gives you freedom doesn’t it? Independence to go anywhere you want and come back whenever you want. You don’t have to wait around.”

Travel budgets: saving effort, saving time and saving money

Services are safeChanging services is safe Protection against weather while travellingProtection against weather while waitingTicketing arrangements are simpleServices are cleanServices are comfortableOther service users are well-behavedFinding out about routes and times is easy

Services are fastJourney is quickServices are frequentServices are on timeChanging services is convenient

Fares are good valueFares are cheap

EFFORT

TIME

MONEY

CHANGING TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR

PROMOTING ALTERNATIVES TO CAR USE

PERCEIVED OBLIGATIONS

What journeys do I really have to make?

PERCEIVED OPPORTUNITIES

How else could I make these journeys?

PREFERENCES & INCLINATIONS

How would I like to make these journeys?

(Are buses really so bad?)PERCEIVED AVAILABILITY OF ALTERNATIVES

More alternatives

More knowledge (‘How to’ information)

PERCEIVED ATTRACTIVENES OF ALTERNATIVES

Autonomy + Mobility

Costing / Saving: Time

Money

Effort

Physical Effort (Walking & waiting)Cognitive Effort (Information load)

Emotional Effort (Feeling in control, confident, safe)

Changing the opportunity structure by pull or by push?

How effective would each of the following measures be in getting you to reduce your use of the car?

% Very or Fairly Effective‘Pull’ MeasuresMore reliable public transport services 82Much cheaper transport 71Shorter overall journey times on public transport 76Shorter interchange times on public transport 73Integrated ticketing to cover different forms of transport 70More available information about public transport 68Employer subsidy of season ticket costs 54Better cycling facilities 43

‘Push’ MeasuresThe closure of city centres to cars 57Fewer places to park the car 47More expensive petrol 38Road tolls 41Campaigns about negative effects of car use 26

The old, the poor, urban dwellers: susceptible to ‘push’ measuresLive out-of-town, large cars, high mileage, drive as work: susceptible to neither

At the moment I am making an effort to reduce my driving speed51%

I have recently reduced my usual driving speed34%

BUT

I feel more comfortable driving fast than slow11%

My passengers sometimes ask me to drive more slowly10%

I think that speeding will always be a problem for me 8%

L&B Safety Camera Partnership. NOP 2005: 800 car drivers

Attitude to speed cameras

In favour Against

Aspiring Environmentalists 86 9Malcontented Motorists 80 13Car Complacents 75 18Die-Hard Drivers 64 28

Help!

Thus …

• We’re car dependent, but• We’re multimodal• Half of us want to change.• If you want people to change you make it as easy as possible

for them to change. • What are politicians for? To lead or to follow? Vic Quay can go

where Marsham Street has failed to.• Lifelong Learning, Transport & Enterprise: survival of the

fittest doesn’t mean we all have to take up jogging, or that the Executive should subsidise gym membership, though they should, it means we must ADAPT to a changing world, and FAST.

NATIONAL TRANSPORT STRATEGY CONFERENCE

30th May, Dunblane Hydro