Profiling the Railway Industry in SA

Letsane RathabaRSR Inspector

IRSC 2008 DENVER, COLORADO. USA.

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OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

INTRODUCTIONTHE RSRTHE RAILWAY INDUSTRY IN SATHE RISK PERCEPTION MODELDETERMINISTIC RISK MODELCONCLUSION

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THE RSR (1)THE RSR (1)

NATIONAL RAILWAY SAFETY REGULATOR ACT (2002)

PURPOSEPromote safe railway operationsCollaboration and participationOperators are responsible and

accountable for safetyHarmonisation in SADCEstablish a regulatory regime

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THE RSR (2)THE RSR (2)

Board

CEO

Internal Audit

Regulation Assurance Support Finance

Legal advisor/ Board

Secretary

Strat & Econ. Planning

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THE RSR (3)THE RSR (3)A brief history

Operational since late 2005Inspectorate appointed 2006Enforcement since 2006

12 Engineers, 2 OfficesFunding

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SA RAIL INDUSTRYSA RAIL INDUSTRYTransnet Freight Rail

Total Network (22 241 km – DC, AC, Non-electric)Coal Export line (67 mt)Iron ore line (30 mt)General Freight Business (84 mt)

SA Rail Commuter Corporation (Metrorail)OTHER

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RISK PERCEPTION MODEL cont …RISK PERCEPTION MODEL cont …Economic Sector risk perception

H - Tourism - severity, occurrence historyH - Petrochemicals - severityH - Class I operatorsM - Municipalities, Ports, Mining, Manufacturing, L - Sidings and terminals and Agricultural

E.g. High risk (passenger, dangerous goods, NTS)Used to prioritize activities

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THE RISK PERCEPTION MODELTHE RISK PERCEPTION MODELAbsence of objective data Risk Based Approach Risk profile to appraise industry risk levels Main factors

Commodity transported (passenger, dangerous goods, freight)Operator category (Station, Network, Train)Volume of goodsNature and complexity of operationsOccurrence ProbabilityOccurrence Severity

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SHORTCOMINGS OF RPMSHORTCOMINGS OF RPM

Subjectivity (perception)Non-use of operational dataDoes not take into account occurrence recordDoes not take into account compliance record

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DETERMINISTIC RISK MODEL DETERMINISTIC RISK MODEL (DRM)(DRM)

(Dr Chris Dutton)Improvement on the RPMA more objective methodologyTake into account both potential and reality risk

of each operatorPotential Risk based on Nature of Business

Category within each factorOccurrence risk (prob+severity) within each categoryWeightings of each category

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POTENTIAL RISKPOTENTIAL RISK

NOBFI (nature of business factor impact, high, medium, low and very low) OSI (occurrence severity impact) OPI (occurrence probability impact inferred from the frequency of occurrence)

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NATURE OF BUSINESS FACTORSNATURE OF BUSINESS FACTORSFactor Sub Element H M L VL

1 Business Intensity (volume)

Freight >8mtpa >5mtpa >3mtpa <1mtpa

2 Passengers >1000pd >1000pm >1000pq <1000py

3 Complexity of Operations

Trains crossing per route >5 <5 <2 None

4 Commodity transported

P-passenger F-freight D-dangerous goods

P&F&D / P&D P&F / D&F P / D F

5 Technology utilized

S-State of the art M-modern O-old A-obsolete

A O M S

6 Moving assets employed

Locomotive/ EMU/DMU >50 >10 >2 <2

7 Wagons >1000 >200 >20 <20

8 Coaches >500 >100 >10 <11

9 Length of track

With OHTE >1000 >100 <100 -

10 Without OHTE >5000 >500 >50 <50

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OCCURENCE SEVERITY IMPACTOCCURENCE SEVERITY IMPACTDescription Weighting Criteria

Catastrophic 10 Could result in death, permanent total disability, multiple injuries, loss exceeding R10m, or irreversible severe environmental damage that violates regulations or law

Critical 6 Could result in partial disability, injuries or occupational illness that may result in hospitalisation of at least 3 persons, loss exceeding R2m or reversible environmental damage causing violation of law or regulation

Marginal 3 Could result in injury or occupational illness resulting in one or more lost days, loss exceeding R500k or mitigatible environmental damage without violation of law or regulation, restoration is possible

Negligible 1 Could result in injury or illness not resulting in lost days, dame of a minor nature, or minimal environmental damage not violation any law or regulation

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OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IMPACTOCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IMPACTDescription Weighting Norm Check

Frequent 15 Likely to occur often in the life of an item, occurrence probability greater than 10-1 in the life, probability>0.1

Experienced continuously

Probable 10 Will occur several times in the life of the item, 0.01< probability<0.1

Occurs frequently

Occasional 6 Likely to occur some in the life of the item, 0.01<probability<0.001

Will occur several times

Remote 3 Unlikely but possible to occur in the life of the item0.000001<probability<0.001

Unlikely, but can reasonable be expected to occur

Improbable 1 Occurrence may not be experienced,Probability>0.000001 (10-6)

Unlikely to occur

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RISK CATEGORY ALLOCATION (1)RISK CATEGORY ALLOCATION (1)Factor Sub Element H M L VL

PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

1 Business Intensity (volume)

Freight Frequent Probable Occasional Remote

2 Passengers Frequent Probable Occasional Remote

3 Complexity of Operations

Trains crossing per route Probable Occasional Remote Improbable

4 Commodity transported

P-passenger F-freight D-dangerous goods

Frequent Probable Occasional Remote

5 Technology utilized

S-State of the art M-modern O-old A-obsolete

Frequent Probable Remote Improbable

6 Moving assets employed

Locomotive/ EMU/DMU Probable Occasional Remote Improbable

7 Wagons Probable Occasional Remote Improbable

8 Coaches Probable Occasional Remote Improbable

9 Length of track

With OHTE Frequent Probable Occasional Remote

10 Without OHTE Probable Occasional Remote Improbable

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RISK CATEGORY ALLOCATION (2)RISK CATEGORY ALLOCATION (2)Factor Sub Element H M L VL

SEVERITY OF OCCURRENCE

1 Business Intensity (volume)

Freight Critical Critical Marginal Negligible

2 Passengers Catastrophic Critical Marginal Marginal

3 Complexity of Operations

Trains crossing per route Critical Marginal Marginal Negligible

4 Commodity transported

P-passenger F-freight D-dangerous goods

Catastrophic Catastrophic Critical Marginal

5 Technology utilized

S-State of the art M-modern O-old A-obsolete

Critical Marginal Negligible Negligible

6 Moving assets employed

Locomotive/ EMU/DMU Critical Marginal Negligible Negligible

7 Wagons Critical Marginal Negligible Negligible

8 Coaches Critical Critical Marginal Negligible

9 Length of track

With OHTE Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible

10 Without OHTE Critical Marginal Negligible Negligible

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RISK CATEGORY CALCULATIONRISK CATEGORY CALCULATIONPROBABILITY OF

OCCURRENCESEVERITY OF OCCURRENCE RISK SEVERITY

Factor Sub Element H M L VL H M L VL H M L VL

1 Business Intensity (volume)

Freight 15 10 6 3 6 6 3 1 90 60 18 3

Passengers15 10 6 3 10 6 3 3 150 60 18 92

3 Complexity of Operations

Trains crossing per route 10 6 3 1 6 3 3 1 60 18 9 1

4 Commodity transported

P-passenger F-freight D-dang goods 15 10 6 3 10 10 6 3 150 100 36 9

5 Technology utilized

S-State othe art M-modern O-old A-obsolete 15 10 3 1 6 3 1 1 90 30 3 1

6 Moving assets employed

Locomotive/ EMU/DMU 10 6 3 1 6 3 1 1 60 18 3 1

7 Wagons 10 6 3 1 6 3 1 1 60 18 3 1Coaches

10 6 3 1 6 6 3 1 60 36 9 18

9 Length of track

With OHTE 15 10 6 3 10 6 3 1 150 60 18 3

Without OHTE10 6 3 1 6 3 1 1 60 18 3 110

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REALITY RISKREALITY RISK

Based on actual operator performanceIncident record

Number of occurrences per annumSeverity of previous occurrences

Compliance recordSubmission requirementsResponsiveness to directives Performance against directives

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REALITY RISK CATEGORIESREALITY RISK CATEGORIESNORM

Factor H M L VL

1 Occurrence Probability IR

>10 pd >10 pm >10 pq > 10 py

2 Occurrence Severity IRCatastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible

3 A. Submission of annual safety plan (ASP) CR

Not received Received late Partially compliant

Fully compliant

4 B. PH performance against ASP objectives CR

No objectives met

Less than half of were met

More than half but not all were met

All objectives were met

5 C. Submission of quarterly report CR

Not received Received late Partially compliant

Fully compliant

6 D. Responsiveness to notices CR

Issued with final demand

Un cooperative

Requires reminders

Full cooperation

7 E. Responsiveness to directives CR

Issued with final demand

Un cooperative

Requires reminders

Full cooperation

8 F. Responsiveness to findings and recommendations CR

Issued with final demand

Un cooperative

Requires reminders

Full cooperation

9 G. Compliance to submitted action plans CR

No objectives met

Less than half were met

More than half were met

All objectives were met

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REALITY RISK CALCULATIONREALITY RISK CALCULATIONRISK SCORE

Factor H M L VL NA

1 Occurrence Probability IR 15 10 6 3 0

2 Occurrence Severity IR 10 6 3 1 0

3 A. Submission of annual safety plan (ASP) CR 10 6 3 1 0

4 B. PH performance against ASP objectives CR 10 6 3 1 0

5 C. Submission of quarterly report CR 10 6 3 1 0

6 D. Responsiveness to notices CR 10 6 3 1 0

7 E. Responsiveness to directives CR 10 6 3 1 0

8 F. Responsiveness to findings and recommendations CR 10 6 3 1 0

9 G. Compliance to submitted action plans CR 10 6 3 1 0

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DRM DECISION CRITERIADRM DECISION CRITERIA

CONDITION DECISIONRR> PR HIGH PRIORITY

RR = PR MEDIUM PRIORITY

RR < PR LOW PRIORITY

RR and PR both HIGH HIGH PRIORITY

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CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

Data capturing

Lots of potential!

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THANK YOU