Project and Workshop on inventories and projections of GHG and NHProject and Workshop on inventories and projections of GHG and NH33 emissions from agriculture emissions from agriculture

in Central and Eastern Europein Central and Eastern Europe

Ispra, 23-24. Juni 2005Ispra, 23-24. Juni 2005

  

Projections of Agricultural Activities in CEE Countries in the Projections of Agricultural Activities in CEE Countries in the timeframe 2003-2012timeframe 2003-2012

HungaryHungary

I. PazsiczkiI. Pazsiczki11 - G. Borka - G. Borka22 - Zsófia Ördögh - Zsófia Ördögh33

  11 Hungarian Institute of Agricultural Engineering, Hungarian Institute of Agricultural Engineering, GödöllőGödöllő

22 Institute for Animal Breeding and Nutrition, Herceghalom Institute for Animal Breeding and Nutrition, Herceghalom

33 National Directorate for Environment and Nature National Directorate for Environment and Nature

General information on the Hungarian agriculture

1980 – 1985 Hungarian agriculture in accordance with the country’s ecological and economic potentials

1986 – 1990 Decrease

1991 – 1995 Dramatic fall

The area of the country 93,033 km2

of which 62.9% agricultural area

(48% arable land, 3.2% garden, orchard and vineyard, 11.3% grassland), 18.9% forest, 0.9% reed and fish-pond, 17.2% uncultivated land area)

General information on the Hungarian agriculture

Number of agricultural producers has decreased by more than 30%, number of employees has decreased by more than 50%. Between 1990 and 2000, volume index of gross production of agricultural products decreased by over 30%, and livestock population decreased by nearly 50%.

 

Efficiency of production has been deteriorating in several sectors simultaneously.

Production per one hectare of agricultural land has declined both in crop cultivation and animal farming.

Trends and situation in generally

• Ecological potential we are far from it predicts growing

• Technological level further development, investments needed

prediction depends on economy and supporting system constant production / growing

• Supporting system Direct payment system more money

we get predicts growing of production

Special support > Support for investments of animal welfare, environment protection (meeting standards)

• Farm concentration number of farms decrease effect ???

• Economy ?????

Method

Data for estimation of ammonia and GHG emission can get

• Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

• Research Institutions AKII (Research Institute of Agricultural Economics

HUSIM – Hungarian Simulation Model

• agriculture and food industry

• prediction in national level /not usable for local or regional level/

• it assumes that word economy is unitary so uses the trends of word economy

• it uses 34 agricultural and 30 food products (~ 80 %)

• prices, inflation, rate of exchange, yields, population, wages etc.

• National Ministry of Finance(2004), OECD(2004), FAPRI(2004), EC DG AGRI(2004)

Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012

Other cattle

Dairy cattle

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

1000

hea

ds

Dairy cattle Other cattle

Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

8'000

9'000

10'000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

1000

hea

ds

Swine

Swine

Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012

Sheep

0

500

1'000

1'500

2'000

2'500

3'000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

1000

hea

ds

Sheep

Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012

Total poultry

0

10'000

20'000

30'000

40'000

50'000

60'000

70'000

80'000

90'000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

1000

hea

ds

Total poultry Hens

Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012

Fertilizer N

0

100'000

200'000

300'000

400'000

500'000

600'000

700'000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

t N

Predictions of basic activity data development in period 2003-2012

Agricultural and Forestry land Acreage of cultivated soils (ha)

(agricultural cultures) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Arable land total 451500 4510000 4498000 4485000 4470000 4450000 4438000 4426000 4426000 4426000 Wheat 1114000 1173000 Barley 341000 331000 Maize 1145000 1188000 Oats 68000 69000 Rye 46000 45000 Millet 172000 157000 Rape 70951 Potatoes 32000 31000 Sugar beet 52000 62000 Feedbeet Vegetable 116538 99000 Peas and beans 24800 N-fixing crops (clover, lucerne etc.) 154000 154000 Others Grasslands total 1062000 1060000 1050000 1040000 1030000 1020000 1010000 1000000 1000000 1000000 Grass monocultures 1062000 1060000 Grass + leguminous Permanent cultures total 293000 Orchards 101000 103000 104000 105200 106300 107500 108800 110000 110000 110000 Vineyards 93000 94000 95000 96000 97000 98000 99000 100000 100000 100000 Hop gardens Others Forestry 1775000 1775000 1789000 1803000 1817000 1835000 1845000 1860000 1860000 1860000 Set-aside 1570000 1570000 1573000 1576000 1579000 1582000 1585000 1590000 1590000 1590000 Others

Difficulties to collect data that concerning future, additional research needed accuracy ?????

The key problem pertaining to the improvement of agricultural emission inventories is the financing and the co-ordination of the research capacity scattered in the country.

For the time being, negotiations have been started between the Ministry of Environment and Water, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and several research units on establising a working group of agricultural emissions.

Major problems encountered for the projections of NH3 and GHG emissions

arising from agriculture

Thank you for your attention!