projection methods for integrating population variables

PREFACE

This is the third and final module of the first volume of the manual onprojection methods for integrating population concerns into development planning,which has been prepared by the Population Division of the Department ofInternational Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Thefirst module dealt with conceptual issues and methods for preparing demographicprojections. The second module presented methods for preparing school enrolment,labour force and employment projections. This module describes techniques forpreparing projections of household and other incomes, household consumption andsavings and government consumption and investment. These techniques can be usedto make a series of interrelated projections of demographic and socio-economicvariables for comprehensive planning that take into account key linkages betweenpopulation and socio-economic change.

The third module is the result of a collaborative effort of the PopulationDivision, two consultants and the Latin American Demographic Centre of theEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Draft materialsdescribing methods for projecting incomes were prepared by James C. Knowles.Drafts of materials for projecting consumption and savings were prepared byRobert K1einbaum. A description of the technique for projecting governmentexpenditures was contributed by Michael V1assoff of the Latin AmericanDemographic Centre. These drafts were revised and put in their present form byMiros1av Macura, then a staff member of the Population Division. The PopulationDivision is grateful to Messrs. Knowles, Kleinbaum, Vlassoff and Macura for theirrespective contributions to this module.

The preparation of this manual was made possible by the generous supportof the United Nations Population Fund. This support included not only financialsupport but also helpful suggestions concerning the substance and presentationof the topics contained within the three modules. This assistance from theUnited Nations Population Fund is gratefully acknowledged by the PopulationDivision.

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CONTENTS

Explanatory Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii

Preface , iii

Chapter

IX. PROJECTING INCOME USING A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX . 1

A. Introduction 1

B. The technique 4

1. Overview 4(a) Inputs 4(b) Outputs 7(c) Computational steps 8

2. National level 8(a) Incomes of factors of production 8

(i) Wages 9(ii) Profits 12

(b) Factor incomes of institutions 12(i) Factor income of households 12

(ii) Factor income of corporation.............. 14(c) Gross incomes of institutions 14

(i) Gross income of corporations.............. 14(ii) Gross income of households 14

(iii) Gross income of government 15a. Household income taxes 15b. Corporate income taxes 15c. Net indirect taxes 16

(d) Disposable incomes of institutions 16(i) Disposable household income 17

(ii) Disposable corporate income 17(iii) Disposable government income 17

(e) Other results .........•........................ 17(i) Aggregates of disposable income 17

a. Total disposable income 18b. Growth in total disposable income 18c. Growth in disposable incomes of

institutions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18(ii) Indicators of the distribution

of total disposable income 19

- iv -

CONTENTS (Continued)

Chapter ~

(iii) Rates of growth of disposable incomes .... 19a. The rate of growth of total

disposable income.................. 19b. Rates of growth of disposable

incomes of institutions...... ..... 20(iv) Levels of per capita and per household

disposable incomes of households 21(v) Rates of change of per capita and

per household disposable incomesof households 22a. Geometric growth rates 22b. Exponential growth rates 23

3. Urban-rural level 23(a) Different categories of incomes .. 23(b) Other results 24

(i) Proportions of disposable householdincome that are urban and rural......... 24

(ii) Urban-rural differentials in percapita and per household disposablehousehold incomes 24

C. The inputs 25

1. Types of inputs required 252. Preparation of the inputs 26

(a) Projections of value added, populationsize and the number of households 26

(b) Assumptions on the various proportionsand ratios 26(i) Observations on proportions and ratios.... 27

a. Procedures to derive observationson proportions and ratios 27

b. Illustrating the derivation ofobservations on proportionsand ratios........................... 32

(ii) Assumptions on future values ofproportions and ratios 32

(c) Assumptions on transfers. 34(i) Observations on the relevant ratios 34

a. Procedures to derive observationson ratios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

b. Illustrative derivation ofobservations on ratios............... 36

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Chapter ~

(ii) Assumptions on future values of ratios... 36(iii) Derive future values of transfers ... .... 36

a. Procedure to derive futurevalues of transfers.. 36

b. Illustrative derivation offuture values of transfers. 38

D. Illustrative examples of projections 38

1. National projection 38(a) Incomes of factors of production 38

(i) Wages 38(ii) Profits 40

(b) Factor incomes of institutions. 40(i) Factor income of households 40

(ii) Factor income of corporations..... 45(c) Gross incomes of institutions 45

(i) Gross income of corporations .. 45(ii) Gross household income 45

(iii) Gross income of government 47a. Household income taxes 47b. Corporate income taxes 47c. Net indirect taxes 47

(d) Disposable incomes of institutions 49(i) Disposable household income 49

(ii) Disposable corporate income 49(iii) Disposable government income 50

(e) Other resul ts 50(i) Aggregates of disposable income 50

a. Total disposable income 50b. Growth in total disposable income... 54c. Growth of disposable incom

of institutions 54(ii) Indicators of the distribution of

total disposable income 54(iii) Rates of growth of disposable incomes 55

a. The rate of growth of thetotal disposable income.......... 55

b. Rates of growth of disposableincomes of institutions .. 57

(iv) Levels of per capita and per householddisposable incomes of households 60

(v) Rates of change of per capita andper household disposable incomeof households 60

- vi .


Chapter ~

a. Geometric growth rates 60b. Exponential growth rates 63

2. Urban-rural projection 63(a) Different categories of incomes 63(b) Other results 74

(i) Proportions of disposable householdincome that are urban and rural........ 74

(ii) Urban-rural income differentials inper capita and per householddisposable income of households 83

E. Summary,

......................................................................................................... 83

F. Notation and equations 87

1. Indices, variables and special symbols 872. Equations 91

Annexes

I. SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX 102

II. ILLUSTRATIVE DERIVATION OF VARIOUS PROPORTIONS AND RATIOS.. 106

III. ILLUSTRATIVE DERIVATION OF THE RATIOS OF VARIOUSTRANSFERS TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND OFFUTURE VALUES OF THOSE TRANSFERS 117

References 121

X. PROJECTING HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION AND SAVINGSUSING PER-HOUSEHOLD SPECIFICATIONS OF DEMAND SYSTEMS 122

A. Introduction....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 122

B. The technique .. .. 124

1. Overview 124(a) Inputs........................................ 124(b) Outputs....................................... 125(c) Computational steps 126

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Chapter ~

2. National level 128(a) Procedure assuming exogenous savings 128

(i) Consumption functions 128(ii) Average household consumption

and savings 132a. Average household expenditure 132b. Average household consumption

by commodity group 133c. Adjusted levels of average

household consumption bycommodity group 135

d. Average household savings 135(iii) Household consumption and savings 136(iv) Other results 136

a. Household consumption and savingsaggregates 136

b. Indicators of the spending patternof households 138

c. Rates of growth of householdconsumption and savings 139

(b) Procedure based on the demand systemwith endogenous savings 141

(i) Consumption functions 141(ii) Savings function 145

(iii) Average household consumptionand savings 146

a. Levels of per household consumptionby commodity group 146

b. Average household savings 147c. Levels of average household

consumption by commodity groupaverage and household savings ..... 148

3. Urban-rural level 149(a) Procedure based on the demand system

with exogenous savings 149(i) Consumption functions 150

(ii) Levels of average householdconsumption and savings 150

(iii) Levels of household consumptionand savings 150

(iv) Other results 150a. Proportions of national household

consumption that are urbanand rural 150

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Chapter ~b. Proportions of national household

saving that are urban or rural 151

(b) Procedures based on the demand systemwith endogenous savings 151

(i) Consumption and savings function 151(ii) Levels of average household

consumption and savings 152(iii) Household consumption and savings

and other results 152

C. The inputs .. ........ . . .... .. . .. . .. ~ . . .. .. . .. ..... . ... ... .. . 152

1. Types of inputs required 152

2. Preparation of the inputs 152(a) Assumptions on the average savings ratio 153(b) Estimates of the functions of

alternative demand systems 156(i) Cross section data 156

(ii) Procedures to estimate alternativedemand systems 156

a. Demand system with exogenoussavings 157

b. Demand system with endogenoussavings 159

(iii) Illustrative estimation 161a. National level 161b. Urban-rural level 170

(c) Calibration of the empiricallyestimated functions 186


1. National projection 186(a) Average household consumption and savings 188

(i) Average household expenditure 188(ii) Average household consumption

by commodity group 188(iii) Adjusted levels of average household

consumption by commodity group 190(iv) Average household savings 191

(b) Levels of household consumption and savings 191(c) Other results 194

(i) Household consumption andsavings aggregates 194

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Chapter

a. Household consumption 194b. Household consumption by broad

commodity groups 194c. Growth in household consumption 197d. Growth in household consumption

by broad commodity groups 197e. Growth in household savings 197

(ii) Indicators of the spending patternof household 197

a. Disposable household income 197b. Proportions of disposable

household income spent ongoods and services in broadin broad commodity groups 199

c. Proportion of dispo~able householdincome saved 199

(iii) Rates of growth of householdconsumption and savings 199

a. The rate of growth of householdconsumption 199

b. Rates of growth of householdconsumption by broad commoditygroups 201

c. The rate of growth of householdsavings 201

2. Urban-rural projection 204(a) Average household consumption and savings 204(b) Levels of household consumption and savings 211(c) Other results 211

(i) Proportions of national householdconsumption urban and rural 211

(ii) Proportions of national householdsavings urban and rural 220

E. Summary . . 220

F. Notation and equations 224

1. Indices, variables and special symbols 2242. Equations............................................ 229

Annex. Procedures to calibrate per-household demandsystems with exogenous and endogenous savings 237

References 251

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CONTINUED (Continued)

Chapter

XI . MAKING PROJECTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONAND SAVINGS USING LINEAR EXPENDITURE SySTEMS , 252

A. Introduction .. 10 ..252

B. The technique 254

1. Overview................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 254(a) Inputs........................................ 255(b) Outputs....................................... 255(c) Computational steps 256

2. National level 258

(a) Procedure based on the linearexpendi ture system .

(i)(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

Expenditure functions ,Levels of per capita household

consumption and savings .a. Level of per capita total

household expenditure ., .b. Levels of per capita household

consumption by commodity group .c. Level of per capita

household savings .Levels of household consumption by

commodity group and householdsavings .

a. Household consumption bycommodity group '" .

b. Household savings .Other resu1 ts .a. Household consumption and

savings aggregates .b. Indicators of the spending

pattern of households .c. Rates of growth of household

consumption and savings .

258258

261

261

262

262

262

263263263

263

265

266

(b) Procedure based on the extendedlinear expenditure system 268

(i) Expenditure functions 268(ii) Levels of per capita household

consumption and savings 270

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Chapter ~

a. Levels of per capita householdconsumption by commodity group 270

b. Level of per capita totalhousehold consumption 271

c. Level of per capitahousehold savings 272

(iii) Levels of household consumption andsavings and other results 272

3. Urban-rural level 272(a) Procedure based on the linear

expenditure system 272(i) Expenditure functions 272

(ii) Levels of per capita householdconsumption and savings 272

(iii) Levels of household consumptionand savings 272

(iv) Other results 273a. Proportions of total household

consumption that are urbanand rural 273

b. Proportions of household savingsthat are urban and rural 273

(b) Procedure based on the extendedlinear expenditure system 274

(i) Expenditure functions 274(ii) Levels of per capita household

consumption and savings 274(iii) Levels of household consumption

and savings and other results 274

C. Inputs 274

1. Types of inputs required 2752. Preparation of inputs 275

(a) Assumptions on the average householdsavings ratio 275

(b) Estimates of expenditure functions ofthe alternative expenditure systems 276

(i) Cross-section data 277(ii) Procedures to estimate alternative

expenditure systems 277a. National level 277b. Urban-rural level 278

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Chapter ~

(iii) Illustrative estimation 279a. National level 279b. Urban-rural level 282

(c) Calibration of the empiricallyestimated functions 287


1. National projection , 290(a) Levels of per capita household

consumption and savings 290(i) Per capita total household expenditure 290

(ii) Levels of per capita householdconsumption by commodity group 290

(iii) Level of per capita household savings 293(b) Levels of household consumption by

commodity group and levels ofhousehold savings 293

(i) Household consumption by commoditygroup 293

(ii) Household savings 293(c) Other results 295

(i) Household consumption andsavings aggregates 295

a. Total household consumption 295b. Household consumption by broad

commodity groups 295c. Growth in total household

consumption 299d. Growth in household consumption

by broad commodity groups 299e. Growth in household savings 301

(ii) Indicators of spending patternof household 301

a. Disposable household income 301b. Proportions of disposable

household income spent ongoods and services in broadcommodity groups 301

c. Proportion of disposablehousehold income saved 301

(iii) Rates of growth of householdconsumption and savings 302

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Chapter ~

a. Rate of growth of totalhousehold consumption 302

b. Rates of growth of householdconsumption by broad commoditygroups 302

c. Rate of growth of householdsavings 305

2. Urban-rural projection 307(a) Levels of per capita household

consumption and savings 307(i) Levels of per capita household

consumption by commodity group 309(ii) Level of per capita total

household consumption 311(iii) Level of per capita

household savings 311(iv) Levels of household consumption

and savings 311(b) Other results 317

(i) Proportions of total householdconsumption that are urbanand rural 317

(ii) Proportions of household savingsthat are urban and rural 317

E.

F.

Summary

Notation and equations

324

328

1. Indices, variables and special symbols 3282. Equations... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 331

Annexes

I. Linear expenditure system 338

II. Extended linear expenditure system

III. Procedures to calibrate the linear expendituresystem and the extended linear expenditure system

343

348

References 357

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Chapter

XII. PROJECTING GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION ANDINVESTMENT IN EDUCATION, HEALTH AND HOUSING 358

A. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358

B. The technique 362

1. Overview............................................. 362

(a) Inputs........................................ 362(b) Outputs....................................... 363(c) Computational steps 364

2. National level 364

(a) Recurrent expenditures 364(i) Operating expenditures 364

(ii) Total administrative expenditure 369(iii) Total recurrent expenditure 370

(b) Investment expenditures 370(i) Change in the numbers of service

input units, by type of input 370(ii) Numbers of service input units

requiring replacement, by typeof input 372

(iii) Levels of investment expenditures,by type of service input 373

(iv) Total investment expenditure 373(c) Other results 374

(i) Expenditure aggregates 374(ii) Growth in expenditures 374

(iii) Indicators of the structureof expenditure 375

(iv) Rates of growth of expenditures 376

3. Urban-rural level 377

(a) Recurrent expenditures 378(i) Operating expenditures 378

(ii) Administrative expenditures 378(iii) Total recurrent expenditures 378

(b) Investment expenditures 379(i) Changes in service input units 379

(ii) Service input units requiringreplacement '379

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Chapter ~

(iii) Levels of investment expendituresby type of service input 379

(c) Other results 379(i) Proportion urban ...•...................... 379

(ii) Proportion rural 380

C. The inputs . . 380

1. Types of inputs required 380

2. Preparation of inputs 380(a) Projected numbers of users 380(b) Observations on service input rates,

attrition rates, unit expendituresand ratios of administrative tooperating expenditures 381

(i) Service input rates 381(ii) Attrition rates 382

(iii) Unit expenditures 382(iv) Ratios of administrative to operating

expenditure 383(c) Assumptions on service input rates,

attrition rates, unit expendituresand ratios of administrative tooperating expenditures 383

(i) Service input rates 384(ii) Attrition rates 384

(iii) Unit expenditures 384(iv) Ratios of administrative to operating

expenditure 385


1. National projection for the education sector 385(a) Recurrent expenditures 387

(i) Operating expenditures 387(ii) Total administrative expenditure 390

(iii) Total recurrent expenditures 390(b) Investment expenditures 390

(i) Changes in the numbers of serviceinput units, by type ofinput service 390

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Chapter

(ii) Numbers of service input units requiringreplacement, by type of input service 393

(iii) Levels of investment expenditures,by type of service input 396

(iv) Total investment expenditure 396(c) Other results 396

(i) Expenditure aggregates " 400(ii) Growth in expenditures ; 400

(iii) Indicators of the structure ofexpenditure 403

(iv) Rates of growth of expenditures 403

2. Urban-rural projection for the health sector 408(a) Recurrent expenditures 408(b) Investment expenditures 416(c) Other resul ts 416

(i) Proportion urban 416(ii) Proportion rural 416

3. Urban projection for the housing sector 422

E. Summary......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 422

F. Notation and equations..................................... 428

1. Indices, variables and special symbols 428

2. Equations 430

Annex. Derivation of the formulas to computechanges in the numbers of service input unitsassuming that growth in those numbers occursover discrete intervals 436

References 439

Glossary ". 440

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Tables

tiQ,.

1. An illustrative social accounting matrix 28

2. An illustrative social accounting matrix involvingsome urban-rural disaggregations 29

3. Inputs for projecting incomes at the national level;projected value added by industry, populationsize and number of households 39

4. Inputs for projecting incomes at the national level;assumptions on the various proportions and ratios 41

5. Inputs for projecting incomes at the national level:assumptions relating to transfers 42

6. Projecting wages at the national level in year 5 43

7. Projecting profits at the national level in year 5.............. 44

8. Projected factor incomes, gross incomes and disposableincomes of institutions 46

9. Projecting net indirect taxes at the national levelin year 5 48

10. Disposable incomes: aggregates, indicators of thedistribution and rates of growth ..... ~....................... 51

11. Levels and rates of growth of per capita and perhousehold disposable incomes of households 62

12. Inputs for projecting incomes at the urban level; projectedvalue added by industry, population size and number ofhouseholds 65

13. Inputs for projecting incomes at the urban level;assumptions on the various proportions and ratios 66

14. Inputs for projecting incomes at the urban level;assumptions relating to transfers 67

- xviii -


15. Inputs for projecting incomes at the rural level;projected value added by industry, population sizeand number of households 68

16. Inputs for projecting incomes at the rural level;assumptions on the various proportions and ratios............. 69

17. Inputs for projecting incomes at the rural level;assumptions relating to transfers 70

18. Projected factor incomes, gross incomes and disposableincomes of institutions in urban areas ....................... 71

B. Projected factor incomes, gross incomes and disposableincomes of institutions in rural areas ....................... 72

20. Projected factor incomes, gross incomes and disposableincomes of institutions for the entire country ............... 73

21. Disposable incomes: aggregates, indicators of thedistribution and rates of growth in urban areas 75

22. Levels and rates of growth of per capita and per householddisposable incomes of households in urban areas 76

23. Disposable incomes: aggregates, indicators of thedistribution and rates of growth in rural areas 77

24. Levels and rates of growth of per capita and per householddisposable incomes of households in rural areas 78

25.

26.

27.

Disposable incomes: aggregates, indicators of thedistribution and rates of growth for the entire country

Levels and rates of growth of per capita and per householddisposable incomes of households for the entire country

Proportionate urban-rural differentials in per capitaand per household disposable incomes for households

79

80

84

28. Calculating value added by industry for the entire country 107

29. Calculating proportions of value added going to wagesby industry for the entire country 108

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30. Calculating ratios of net indirect taxes to value addedby industry for the entire country .

31. Calculating value added by industry for urbanand rural areas .

32. Calculating proportions of value added going to wages byindustry for urban and rural areas .

33. Calculating ratios of net indirect taxes to valueadded by industry for the entire country .

34. Observations on average household expenditures by commoditygroup, average total household expenditure and averagehousehold size: averages for 10 clusters of households .

35. Observations on average household expenditures by commoditygroup, average household savings, average householddisposable income and average household size: averagefor 10 clusters of households .

36. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenoussavings for the entire country .

37. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor the entire country .

38. Computing estimates of intercept coefficients of non-linearconsumption functions of the demand system withexogenous savings for the entire country .

39. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumptionand savings functions of the demand system withendogenous savings for the entire country .

40. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumption andsavings functions of the demand system with endogenoussavings for the entire country .

- xx -

110

112

113

114

162

163

164

166

167

168

171


41. Computing estimates of slope coefficients of multiplicativeconsumption and savings functions of the demand systemwith endogenous savings for the entire country...... 172

42. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor urban areas 174

43. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor rural areas 175

44. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor urban areas 176

45. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor rural areas 177

46. Computing estimates of slope coefficients of multiplicativeconsumption functions of the demand system with endogenoussavings for urban and rural areas 178

47. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumption andsavings functions of the demand system with endogenoussavings for urban areas 180

48. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumption andsavings functions of the demand system with endogenoussavings for rural areas 181

49. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionand savings functions of the demand system withendogenous savings for urban areas 183

50. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionand savings functions of the demand system withendogenous savings for rural areas 184

51. Computing estimates of slope coefficients of multiplicativeconsumption and savings functions of the demand systemwith endogenous savings for urban and rural areas 185

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52. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor the entire country ................................•...... 187

53. Deriving preliminary levels of average household consumptionby commodity group for the entire country: end ofprojection interval 0-5 189

54. Projected levels of average household consumption bycommodity group and average household savings 192

55. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and projected levels of household savings 193

56. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change for theentire country 195

57. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor urban areas 205

58. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor rural areas 206

59. Deriving levels of average household consumption bycommodity group and average household savings forurban areas: end of projection interval 0-5 208

60. Projected levels of average household consumption bycommodity group and average household savings forurban areas 209

61. Projected levels of average household consumption bycommodity group and average household savings forrural areas 210

62. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for urban areas 212

63. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for rural areas 213

64. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for the entire country........... 214

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65. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change for urban areas 217

66. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change for rural areas 218

67. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change for theentire country 219

68. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for selectedlog-linear consumption functions of the demand systemwith exogenous savings for the entire country usingdata for a selected year 244

69. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for selectedlinear consumption and savings functions of the demandsystem with endogenous savings for urban areas usingdata for a selected year 246

70. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for selectedlinear consumption and savings functions of the demandsystem with endogenous savings for rural areas usingdata for a selected year 247

71. Illustrative data required to estimate expenditurefunctions of the linear expenditure system 280

72. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the linear expenditure system for the entirecountry 281

73. Illustrative data required to estimate expenditurefunctions of the extended linear expenditure system 283

74. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the extended linear expenditure system for theentire country 284

75. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the linear expenditure system for urban areas.............. 286

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76. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the linear expenditure system for rural areas 286

77. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the extended linear expenditure system for urban areas 288

78. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the extended linear expenditure system forrural areas 289

79. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor the entire country using the linear expenditure system 291

80.

81.

Deriving levels of per capita household consumptionby commodity group for the entire country, year 5

Projected levels of per capita household consumptionby commodity group and per capita household savings

292

294

82. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings 296

83. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates of growthof household consumption and savings for theentire country 297

84. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor urban areas using the extended linear expendituresystem " . . .. . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. . .. . . . 308

85. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor rural areas using the extended linear expendituresystem....................................................... 309

86. Deriving levels of per capita household consumption bycommodity group for urban areas: end of projectioninterval 0-5 310

87. Projected levels of per capita household consumptionby commodity group and per capita household savingsfor urban areas 312

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88. Projected levels of per capita household consumptionby commodity group and per capita household savingsfor rural areas 313

89. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for urban areas 314

90. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for rural areas 315

91. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for the entire country........... 316

92. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change forurban areas 318

93. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change forrural areas 319

94. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change forthe entire country 320

95. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for expenditurefunctions of the linear expenditure system for the entirecountry using data for a selected year 352

96. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for expenditurefunctions of the extended linear expenditure system forurban areas using data for a selected year 353

97. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for expenditurefunctions of the extended linear expenditure system forrural areas using data for a selected year 354

98. Inputs for projecting government consumption andinvestment in the education sector for the lower-primaryschool level: entire country................................. 386

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99. Computing the numbers of service input units, by type ofservice input, for the lower-primary-school level:entire country, year 5 388

100. Calculating levels of operating expenditures, by type ofservice input, for the lower-primary-school level:entire country, year 5 389

101. Calculating total administrative expenditure for thelower-primary school level; entire country, year 5 391

102. Computing changes in the numbers of service input units,by type of service input, for the lower-primaryschool level: entire country, year 5 392

103. Calculating the numbers of service input units requiringreplacement, by type of service input, for thelower-primary school level: entire country, year 5 394

104. Projected numbers of service input units, changes inthose number and numbers of service input unitsrequiring replacement for the lower-primary schoollevel: entire country 395

105. Calculating levels of investment expenditures, by type ofservice input, for the lower-primary school level:entire country, year 5 397

106. Projected operating and investment expenditures, by type ofservice input, for the lower-primary school level:entire country, 398

107. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growth forthe lower-primary school level: entire country............... 401

108. Inputs for projecting government consumption andinvestment in the health sector: urban areas 409

109. Inputs for projecting government consumption andinvestment in the health sector: rural areas 410

110. Projected numbers of service input units for the healthsector: urban areas 411

- xxvi -


111. Projected numbers of service input units for the healthsector: rural areas 412

112. Projected numbers of service input units for the healthsector: entire country 413

113. Projected operating expenditures, by type of serviceinput, for the health sector: urban areas 414

114. Projected operating expenditures, by type of serviceinput, for the health sector: rural areas 415

115. Projected operating expenditures, by type of serviceinput, for the health sector: entire country.. 417

116. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growthfor the health sector: urban areas 418

117. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growthfor the health sector: rural areas 419

118. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growthfor the health sector: entire country........................ 420

119. Inputs for projecting government consumption and investmentfor the housing sector: urban areas 423

120. Projected numbers of service input units, changes inthose number and numbers of units requiring replacementfor the housing sector: urban areas 424

121. Projected operating and investment expenditures forthe housing sector: urban areas 425

122. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growthfor the housing sector: urban areas 426

Fhures

H2.

I. Steps to project incomes at the national level............. 13

II. Total disposable income 52

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NQ.

III. Disposable incomes of households, corporationsand government 53

IV. Proportions of the total disposable incomes receivedby various institutions in the initial and theterminal year 56

V. Rate of growth of total disposable income 58

VI. Rates of growth of disposable incomes of institutions 59

VII. Levels of per capita and per household disposablehousehold income 61

VIII. Rates of growth of per capita and per householddisposable household income 64

IX. Total disposable income: urban, rural and national. 81

X. Proportions of disposable household income that areurban and rural 82

XI. Steps to project household consumption and savingsusing the demand system with exogenous savings 130

XII. Steps to project household consumption savings at thenational level using the demand system with endogenoussavings 143

XIII. Household consumption and household savings 196

XIV. Household consumption by broad groups (food,clothing and other) 198

XV. Proportions of disposable household income spent orsaved in the initial and the terminal years 200

XVI. Rates of growth of household consumption andhousehold savings 202

XVII. Rates of growth of household consumption by broadcommodity groups 203

XVIII. Household consumption: urban, rural and national 215

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XIX. Household savings: urban, rural and national 216

XX. Proportions of household consumption that are urbanand rural 221

XXI. Proportions of household savings that are urbanand rural 222

XXII. Steps to project household consumption and savings at thenational level using the linear expenditure system 260

XXIII. Steps to proj~ct household consumption and savingsat the national level using the extended linearexpenditure system 269

XXIV. Total household consumption and savings 298

XXV. Household consumption by broad groups(food, clothing and other) 300

XXVI. Proportions of disposable household income spent orsaved in the initial and the terminal year 303

XXVII. Rates of growth of total household consumptionand savings 304

XXVIII. Rates of growth of household consumption by broadcommodity groups 306

XXIX. Total household consumption: urban, rural and national ..... 321

XXX. Household savings: urban, rural and national 322

XXXI. Proportions of household consumption that are urbanand rural 323

XXXII. Proportions of household savings that are urbanand rural 325

XXXIII. Steps needed to project government consumption andinvestment at the national level 368

XXXIV. Total recurrent and investment expenditures:lower-primary school level 399

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XXXV. Total government expenditure: lower-primary schoollevel 402

XXXVI. Proportions of total government expenditureaccounted for by total recurrent and investmentexpenditures 404

XXXVII. Rates of growth of total recurrent and investmentexpenditures: lower-primary school level 406

XXXVIII. Rate of growth in total government expenditure:lower-primary school level 407

XXXIX. Proportions of total government expenditure in thehealth sector: urban and rural 421

~

1. Glossary

2. Glossary

3. Glossary

4. Glossary

...................................................................... """ ..

..............................................................................................................

..............................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................

2

3

5

6

5. Inputs for making income projections using thesocial accounting matrix 7

6. Types of outputs obtained by projecting incomes usingthe social accounting matrix 9

7. Computational steps needed to project incomesat the national level 10

8.

9.

Glossary

Glossary

..............................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................

27

33

10. Outputs of a method for projecting incomes using asocial accounting matrix 85

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11. Glossary ·.·.···. 103

12. Glossary....................................................... 123

13. Glossary....................................................... 124

14. Inputs for preparing household consumption and savingsprojections using per household demand systems 126

15. Types of outputs of the method for preparing householdconsumption and savings projections using per householddemand systems 127

16. Computational steps to project household consumption andsavings at the national level using the demand systemwith exogenous savings 129

17. Computational steps to project household consumption andsavings at the national level using the demand systemwith endogenous savings 142

18. Glossary....................................................... 154

19. Requisite survey data and their preparation for analysis 157

20. Outputs of the method for making household consumptionand savings projections using per-householddemand systems 223

21. Glossary 253

22. Inputs for preparing projections of householdconsumption and savings using the linearexpenditure system or the extended linearexpenditure system 256

23. Types of outputs derived from projections of householdconsumption and savings using the linear expendituresystem or the extended linear expenditure system 257

24. Computational steps to project household consumptionand savings at the national level using the linearexpenditure system 259

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25. Computational steps to project household consumptionand savings at the national level using the extendedlinear expenditure system 271

26. Outputs of the method for making household consumptionand savings projections using the linear expendituresystem or the extended linear expenditure system 326

27. Glossary 359

28. Microcomputer version of the Long-Range PlanningModel version 2 360

29. Glossary............... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361

30. Inputs for making government consumption and investmentpro jections 363

31. Types of outputs obtained by projecting governmentconsumption and investment 365

32. Computational steps needed to project governmentconsumption and investment at the national level 366

33. Outputs of a method for projecting government consumptionand investment 427

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projection methods for integrating population variables

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