Submitted by:

ANIL MALIK

M.PLAN(III SEM)

2012PAR5291

UDAIPUR: DECADE-WISE POPULATIONS. NO. YEAR POPULATION DIFFERENCE GROWTH RATE (%)

SOURCES : CENSUS OF INDIA (GOVT. OF INDIA ) DATA , 2011PROJECTED POPULATION= *

0

POPULATION PROJECTION:

1.GENERAL:

•Population forecasts depend on the amount and type of data available •Population forecasts also depend on the resources available i.e. the amount of money that you are willing to spend.•Forecasts are susceptible to error if for no other reason that nobody knows the future.

2. METHODS: •Arithmatic•Geometrical•Decreasing rate of Increase•Logistical

A. Arithmetic GeneralGiven: Arithmetic General Case

= Ka

P = populationt = timeKa = arithmetic growth constant

Find: Integrated population formula= Ka ,cross multiply

dP = Ka dt, integrate

= Ka

P2-P1 = Ka (t2-t1), solving for Ka

Ka = , substituting

P2 = P1 + Ka (t2 - t1)

For any P and corresponding t:P = P1 + Ka (t - t1)

B. Arithmetic Numerical CaseGiven: Arithmetic Numerical Caset1 = 2001, P1=3,89,317

t2 = 2011, P2=5,75,000

Find: A.) Ka

B.) General equationC.) Population in 2031A.) Ka

Ka = = 5,75,000 – 3,89,317 / 2011 - 2001 = 1,85,683 / 10

Ka = 18568

B.) General equationP = P1 + Ka (t - t1)

P = 3,89,317 + 18568 (t – t2001), based on 2001

Any population and the corresponding year may be used:P = 5,75,000 + 18,568 (t - t2011), based on 2011

C.) Population in 2031P2031 =P2001 + Ka (t2031 – t2001)

P2031 = 3,89,317 + 18,568 (2031-2001), based on 2001

P2031 = 3,89,317 + 5,57,040

P2031 = 9,46,357

C. Geometric GeneralGiven: Geometric General Case

= KgP

P = populationt = timeKg = arithmetic growth

constantFind: Integrated population formula= Kg P, cross multiply

= Kg dt, integrate

= Kg

lnP2-lnP1 = Ka (t2-t1), solving for Ka

Kg = , substituting

LnP2 = lnP1 + Kg (t2 - t1)

At any P and corresponding tLnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)

D. Geometric Numerical CaseGiven: Geometric Numerical Caset1 = 2001, P1=3,89,317

t2 = 2011, P2=5,75,000

Find: A.) Kg

B.) General equationC.) Population in 2031A.) Kg

Kg = = = 1n5,75,000 – 1n3,89,317 / 2011 – 2001

= 57.5 – 38.9 / 10 = 18.6 / 10Kg = 1.86

B.) General equationLnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)

LnP = Ln (3,89,317) + .1.86(t-2001)LnP = 38.9 + 1.86(t-2001)P = e(38.9+1.86(t-2001)

Any population and the corresponding year may be used:C.) Population in 2031lnP2031 =lnP2001 + Ka (t2031 – t2001)

LnP = 38.9 + 1.86(2031 - 2001) = 38.9 + 55.8LnP = 94.70P2031 = e 94.70

P2031 = 10,02,118

E. Decreasing Rate of Increase, General

Given: Decreasing Rate General Case= Kd(S-P)

P = population, t = time, Kd = decreasing

rate growth constant, S = Saturation populationFind: Integrated population formula= Kd (S-P), cross multiply

= Kd dt, integrate

= Kd

-ln = Kd (t2-t1), solving for Kd

Kd =

Taking the antilog: = e-(Kd(t2-t1))

S-P2 = (S-P1) e-(Kd(t2-t1))

S-P2 = Se-(Kd(t2-t1)) - P1e-(Kd(t2-t1))

P2 = S - Se-(Kd(t2-t1)) + P1e-(Kd(t2-t1))

Add and subtract P1-P1=0 to the right side;

the object is to create factors:P2 = P1-P1 + S- Se-(Kd(t2-t1)) + P1 e

-(Kd(t2-t1))

Rearrange terms:P2 = P1+ S – P1- Se-(Kd(t2-t1)) + P1 e

-(Kd(t2-t1))

P2= P1 + (S-P1)(1- e -Kd(t2-t1))

At any P and corresponding tP = P1 + (S-P1)(1- e -Kd(t-t1))

F. Decreasing Rate of Increase, Numerical Case

Given: Decreasing Rate Numerical Caset1 = 2001, P1=3,89,317

t2 = 2011, P2=5,75,000

S=10,00,000 assumedFind: A.) Kd

B.) General equationA.) Kd

Kd = = -1n{(1000000 – 5,75,000)/(1000000 –

3,89,317)} / 2011-2001 Kd = -1n{(4,43,000 / 6,10,683) / 10} = -1n

(0.72542 / 10) = - (-.3524 / 10)Kd = .03524

B.) General equationP = P1 + (S-P1)(1- e -Kd(t-t1))

P = 3,89,317 + (10,00,000-3,89,317)(1- e -.3524(t-

2001))P = 3,89,317 + 6,10,683(1- e -.3524(t-2001))C.) Population in 2031P2031 = 3,89,317 + (10,00,000-3,89,317)(1- e -.3524(t-

2001))P2031 = 3,89,317+ 6,10,683(1- e -.3524(t-2001))

P2031 = 3,89,317+ 6,10,683(1- e -.3524(2031-2001))

P2031 = 3,89,317+ 6,10,683(1-10.572)

P2031 = 3,89,317+ 6,05,703

P2031 = 9,95,020

G. Logistic MethodGiven: Logistic Methodt0 = 1991, P0 = 3,08,571

t1 = 2001, P1= 3,89,317

t2 = 2011, P2= 5.75,000

Find: Population in 2031P2020 = S / 1+mexbt

S = [2(308571X389317x575000) – {(389317x389317)(308517 + 575000)}] / (308571x575000) – (389317x389317)S=10,20,000m = .437n = interval between P0P1P2 which in this case is 10 years.

b = In(-1.63)b = -0.163t = 2031-1991t= 40P2031 = 10,20,000 / (1+.437) x (-0.163X40)

P2031 = 10,20,000 / (1+.437) x .00147

P2031 = 10,20,000 / 1+ .000644

P2031 = 9,99,923

FINDINGS :

*IT IS CLEAR FROM THE PREVIOUSLY CALCULATED NUMERICALS WITH THE HELP OF VARIOUS METHODS, THAT THE PROJECTED POPULATION FOR THE YEAR 2013 LIES IN BETWEEN 9,46,357 TO 10,02,118. AND THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS LIKELY TO BE 9,75,000.

*BUT, WE WOULD PLAN FOR THE MAXIMUM POPULATION WHICH IS 10,02,118.

A. Arithmetic Numerical Case P2031 = 9,46,357

B. Geometric Numerical Case P2031 = 10,02,118

C. Decreasing Rate of Increase, Numerical Case

P2031 =

9,95,020D. Logistic Method P2031 = 9,99,923

BENCH MARK OR MAXIMUM POPULATION FOR PLANNING WOULD BE 10,02,118

POPULATION & ITS ALLOCATION :

According to 2011 censusPopulation = 4.80 lacTotal wards = 55Total HouseHolds = 90,000Dense population wards = 14 (Ward no.

10,11,12,13,14,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49)Main factors of population growth of city are

Natural Growth & Migration .Inner city’s Density is 435 PPA maximum.Outer city’s Density is 25 PPA.City’s Total Density is 35 PPA.But, City’s Total Residential Density is 90 PPA.Total Area of Inner City is 515 Acres.And 5o % population resides in the Inner City.

INTERESTING & IMPORTANT FACTS :

DATA OF UDAIPUR CITY POPULATION IS AVAILABLE FROM 1891.

1891 WAS THE YEAR WHEN 1ST POPULATION SURVEY WAS HELD IN THE COUNTRY.

UDAIPUR CITY’S POPULATION AT THAT TIME IN 1891 WAS 38,264.

UDAIPUR’S POPULATION WAS STABLE TILL 1901.

IN YEAR 1911, THE POPULATION OF CITY DECREASED AT DUE TO NATURAL CALAMITY : PLAGUE.

BUT, FROM YEAR 1921 ONWARDS THERE HAS BEEN A TREMENDOUS GROWTH IN THE POPULATION OF CITY.

INTERESTING & IMPORTANT FACTS :

MAIN REASON BEHIND THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER GROWTH OF POPULATIONDURIN YEAR 1941 TO 1951 WAS IMMIGRATION OF REFUGEES FAMILIES AFTER INDEPENDENCE IN THE CITY.

DUE TO INDUSTRIAL , COMMERCIAL & TRADE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 7TH & 8TH DECADE OF 20TH CENTURY, THERE WAS BEEN A HUGE POPULATION GROWTH OF THE CITY..

ACCORDING TO CENSUS 2011, POPULATION OF THE UDAIPUR CIT’S MUNICIPAL COUNCIL AREA WAS 4,52,000.

AND THE POPULATION OF CITY’S URBANISED AREA (OUTER AREA) IS ALSO COUNTED AS 1,19,833.

SO, THE TOATAL POPULATION IN YEAR 2011 WAS 5,75,000.

INTERESTING & IMPORTANT FACTS :

POPULATION GROWTH RATE HAS BEEN DECREASED IN 1981 –2001.

REASON BEHIND THIS DECREASE ARE :

FAMILY PLAANING AWARENESS PROGRAMMES, GOVT. JOB SCHEMES AND POLICIES AND PEOPLE MIGRATION TO METRO CITIES FOR HIGHER

EDUCATION AND BETTER JOB OPPORTUNITIES.

THE POPULATION IS BELIEVED TO BE INCREASING DUE TO AVAILABILITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES LIKE MINERALS, MARBLES, SOAPSTONE AND PHOSPHATE.

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