Projection of West Virginia K-12(0-19 Years Old) Population

Christiadi

Bureau of Business and Economic ResearchCollege of Business and Economics

West Virginia University

Presented at the:WEST VIRGINIA BOARD OF EDUCATION

Commission on School District Governance and Administration MeetingCharleston, WV March 27-28, 2014

WV Population is not Expected to Grow as Fast as Previously Predicted

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20351,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

2,000,000

Old Projection

New Projection

WV population has always been among the oldest since 1970.

In 2010: WV median age = 40.5, 3rd in the nation. WV share of 65+ = 16.0 percent, 2nd in the nation.

Both the state and US population are aging. The path of aging, however, is different:

Between 2000 and 2010, the old & young population in the nation are both growing but the old is growing faster.

In the state, older population is growing while young population is declining.

WV vs. US Demographics

Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau

Between 2000 and 2010Population in the Younger Age Groups Declined, Population

in the Older Age Groups Rose

0-19 20-44 45-64 65+0

200

400

600

800

454.7

621.5

455.3

276.9

439.2

575.4541.0

297.4

2000 2010

Thousa

nds

Population Distribution by Age Group, 20100

200,000

400,000

600,000

In the next Two Decades, Population in the Younger Age Groups is Expected to Continue to Decline

Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau

5-24 25-44 45-64 65+

1970 1990 20100.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

646.1

503.4

439.2

WV Population 0-19 has been Declining since 1970

Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau

Thousa

nds

K-12 Head-Count Enrollment, WV

Note: 2002 means 2001-2002 academic year.

Source: WV Department of Education

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201360,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

Grade 1 - 5 Grade 6 - 8 Grade 9 - 12

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014255000

260000

265000

270000

275000

280000

285000

Include EC FTE Enrollment Exclude EC FTE Enrollment

Source: “Early Childhood Effect on FTE Enrollment History” WV County Boards of Education, 2014

K-12 FTE Enrollment with vs. without Early Childhood Enrolment

Gra

de-K

Gra

de-1

Gra

de-2

Gra

de-3

Gra

de-4

Gra

de-5

Gra

de-6

Gra

de-7

Gra

de-8

Gra

de-9

Gra

de-1

0

Gra

de-1

1

Gra

de-1

20.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

20.7 20.620.0 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.6 20.5

22.5

20.5

19.018.4

Source: Author’s calculations of the West Virginia Department of Education head-count enrollment data

Cohort: Enrolled (Head-Count) in Grade K in 2001-02 to 2003-04

Grade Progression: Cohort AnalysisThousa

nds

18-24 25+0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

14.1

1.3

Estimated Population 18+ Enrolled in High School in 2011Thousa

nds

Source: Author’s calculations of the US Census Bureau’s 2012 American Community Survey data

0-19 20-39 40-590.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

439.2455.0

535.9

Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau

Thousa

nds

What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19in the Next Two Decades?

Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau

Thousa

nds

What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19in the Next Two Decades?

Estimated births 2010-2029

0-19 20-39 40-590.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

?

Birth Rate The Number of Women at Child-

bearing Age (15-44) Migration

Factors Determining Population 0-19 in WV

General Fertility Rate, WV and the US

General Fertility Rate = Total Births per 1000 Women 15-44 Years of Age.

Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR) and the WV Bureau for Public Health, Health Statistics Center

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

201015000

20000

25000

30000

35000

WV-births WV-deaths

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

201015000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

US-births (in 00) US-deaths (in 00)

Births and Deaths, WV vs. the US

West Virginia United States

Sources: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR) and the WV Bureau for Public Health, Health Statistics Center.

The Number of Women at Child-bearing Age (15-44) is Declining

Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau

Thousa

nds

5-14 15-24 25-34 35-4480.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

105.1

115.5

108.8

117.7

Thousa

nds

.. and is expected to Continue to Decline

Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau

Assuming Death & Migration are 0:

Total in 2010= B + C + D= 342.0 thousand

Total in 2020= A + B + C= 329.4 thousand

a 12.6 thousand decline

A

B

C

D

WV Net-Migration, 1991-2013

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Sources: US Census Bureau’s Population Estimates.

Sources: US Census Bureau 2010 Census and Author’s calculations of vital statistics data from the West VirginiaBureau for Public Health data, Health Statistics Center.

Thousa

nds

Estimated births2010-2029

0-19 20-39 40-590.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

398.7

439.2455.0

535.9

What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19in the Next Two Decades?

1970 1990 2010 20300.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

800.1

539.3

425.0398.7

646.1

503.4

439.2 418.9

20 Year Accumulated Births Pop-0-19

Estimated Accumulated 2010-2029 Births vs.Population 0-19, WV

Thousa

nds

Sources: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau and 2014 WV Population Projection, Bureau of Business and Economic Research

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

646.1 630.1

503.4

454.7 439.2 427.0 418.9

WV Population 0-19, 1970 to 2030

Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau and the 2014 WV Population ProjectionBureau of Business and Economic Research, West Virginia University

Randolph

Hardy

Kanawha

GreenbrierFayette

Preston

Grant

Raleigh

Pocahontas

Boone

Clay

Wayne

Nicholas

Roane

Logan

Mingo

Pendleton

Webster

Lewis

Braxton

Mason

Wood Ritchie

Tucker

Monroe

Lincoln

Mercer

Hampshire

Jackson

Wirt

Wyoming

McDowell

Tyler

Wetzel

Gilmer

Harrison

Upshur

Marion

Putnam

Mineral

Cabell

Barbour

Marshall Berkeley

Monongalia

Taylor

Ohio

Summers

Calhoun

Doddridge

Morgan

Jefferson

Pleasants

Brooke

Hancock 2010-2020 Absolute Change of Population 0-19 Years OldWest Virginia

Absolute Change ofPopulation 0-19

> 750

≤ −1,000

−1,000 - 0

0 - 750

Sources: Author’s calculations

Randolph

Hardy

Kanawha

GreenbrierFayette

Preston

Grant

Raleigh

Pocahontas

Boone

Clay

Wayne

Nicholas

Roane

Logan

Mingo

Pendleton

Webster

Lewis

Braxton

Mason

Wood Ritchie

Tucker

Monroe

Lincoln

Mercer

Hampshire

Jackson

Wirt

Wyoming

McDowell

Tyler

Wetzel

Gilmer

Harrison

Upshur

Marion

Putnam

Mineral

Cabell

Barbour

Marshall Berkeley

Monongalia

Taylor

Ohio

Summers

Calhoun

Doddridge

Morgan

Jefferson

Pleasants

Brooke

Hancock 2010-2020 Percent Change of Population 0-19 Years OldWest Virginia

Sources: Author’s calculations

Absolute Change ofPopulation 0-19

> 750

≤ −1,000

−1,000 - 0

0 - 750

2010-20 Percent Change of Population0-19 Years Old by County, WV

Source: Author’s calculations

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-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

WV population is aging

WV population 0-19 is declining as a result of: Baby boomers get older Decline in births Migration?

WV young population (0-19) is expected to continue to decline at least in the next decade

Maintaining K-12 enrollment will be a challenge

Counties with declining enrollment is expected to see continued decline in enrollment

Summary

For other questions on demographic issues in the state, contact: christiadi@mail.wvu.edu