International Conference

New Measures of Age and Ageing Vienna, 3 - 5 December 2014

Prospective measures of population ageing:

gender differences

(the case of Saint-Petersburg)

Gaiane SAFAROVA,

Anna Safarova, Alexander Lisenenkov

Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics

Russian Academy of Sciences

Ageing in the Twenty-First Century:

a Celebration and a Challenge (UNFPA, 2012):

Population ageing is one of the most significant trends of the 21st century.

Ageing is a triumph of development. Increasing longevity is one of humanity’s greatest achievements. People live longer because of improved nutrition, sanitation, medical advances, health care, education and economic well-being.

EU-27 2010: LE0 males – 76.7, LE0 females – 82.6 (Eur dem data sheet 2012)

Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing, 2002: …...

8. Older women outnumber older men, increasingly so as age increases. The

situation of older women everywhere must be a priority for policy action

Recognizing the differential impact of ageing on women and men is integral to

ensuring full equality between women and men and to the development of effective and efficient measures to address the issue.

It is therefore critical to ensure the integration of a gender perspective into all policies, programmes and legislation.

Saint-Petersburg, with its 4.88 mln population (All-Russian census 2010) is the

second-largest city in Russia and in several aspects plays the leading role in the country. The city is important not only because of its great size (and therefore its potential to affect the areas immediately surrounding it as well as those further away) but also because it has been at the forefront of many of the demographic changes that have taken place in Russia.

Since its foundation in 1703, the city has acted as a barometer for the population changes taking place in Russian society, e.g. while the total population decline during the transition period in Russia has been around 3 percent for the period 1990-2005, it has fallen by over 8 per cent in Saint-Petersburg (Demographic yearbook of

Russia, 2006). Then, in the beginning of the transition period sharp mortality increase took place, and it was more marked in SPb as compared with Russia as a whole – e.g. minimal value of male life expectancy at birth (LE0) in Russia since 1990 was observed in 1994 (it was equal to 57.42 years), while in SPb – in 1993 (it was equal to 57.67 years); relative to the year 1990 this decrease was equal 9.9% for Russia and 10.8% for Saint-Petersburg (Demographic yearbook of Russia, 2010).

The paper is based on censuses and data on vital events given by Rosstat and Petrostat, and on Human Mortality Database (University of California, Berkeley, USA, and Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research, Germany).

Main demographic indicators, SPb, 2011 (The Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2012)

TTOOTTAALL SSIIZZEE ((0011..0011..001122))

(thousand persons)

44995533

TTFFRR 11..3388

((11..5588))

LE

Males 6677..88

((6644..00))

Females 7777..77

((7755..66))

Net migration (per 1000 population) 1111..99

((22..22))

Population pyramids

Saint-Petersburg and Russia, 2014

Males Females

Saint-Petersburg , 1990 and 2014

Males Females

SPb Russia SPb 2010 SPb 1990

Dynamics of the total population size of St. Petersburg (SPb-total

pop.; left scale) and the number of population 60+

(SPb-pop. 60 +, right scale), 1990-2010 ( thousands)

4400

4500

4600

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3200

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9201

0

tota

l p

op

ula

tio

n

860

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1000

po

pu

lati

on

60+

SPb-total pop. SPb-pop. 60+

Number of males and females, SPb, 2014 (after 30 women outnumber men)

10000

30000

50000

70000

90000

110000

130000

150000

170000

190000

210000

230000

250000

270000

0-4 5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

females males

Dynamics of the proportions of major age groups,

Saint-Petersburg, 1990-2010 (%)

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10

15

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25

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45

50

55

60

65

70

75

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SPb-Prop.60+ SPb-Prop.(0-14) SPb-Prop.(15-59)

Population pyramids, SPb, 2010 and 2040

variant Constant rates (const30000)

With advances in health and life expectancy, measuring population aging presents a problem to demographers because the meaning of the number of years lived has changed. In western Europe in 1800, for example, less than 25 percent of males would survive to age 60, while today more than 90 percent of them do.

A 60-year old man in western Europe today has around the same remaining life expectancy as a 43-year-old man in 1800. Today, a person who is 60 is considered middle-aged; in 1800, that 60-year-old was elderly. Older people are regularly doing things that were the province of younger people only a few years earlier. Now, 80-year-olds get knee replacements so they can continue hiking. Older people tend to have fewer disabilities than people of the same age in earlier decades, and now there is some evidence that cognitive decline is being postponed as well. The media have recognized this change. We often read that “40 is the new 30,” but this is more than just a pop culture phrase. It is a challenge to demographers to rethink how they measure a population’s age and the pace of ageing.

Sanderson W., Scherbov S. Rethinking Age and Aging//Population Bulletin. – 2008. – V. 63,

№ 4. – P. 127-134.

Life expectancy at birth and at older ages, SPb,

1990 – 2010 females (left), males (right)

69

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77

1990

1991

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LE 0 LE 60,65,70,75,80

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LE 0 СПб LE 60 СПб LE 65 СПб LE 70 СПб LE 75 СПб LE 80 СПб

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66

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

LE 0 LE 60,65,70,75,80

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LE 0 СПб LE 60 СПб LE 65 СПб LE 70 СПб LE 75 СПб LE 80 СПб

Gender differences in life expectancy at birth and at

older ages, Saint-Petersburg, 1990 – 2009

* Gender differences in life expectancy at birth and at older ages in Saint-Petersburg expressed

as the ratio (LEfem/LEmal – 1)*100.

• Thus defined gender difference is decreasing with age:

in 2009 gender differences in life expectancy at 60 was 28.4%, at 65 – 23.4%,

at 70 – 17.8%, at 75 – 15.5% and at the age of 80 LE for males exceed LE for females.

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

LE 0 СПб LE 60 СПб LE 65 СПб

LE 70 СПб LE 75 СПб LE 80 СПб

Conventional and prospective ageing measures

conventional ageing measures prospective ageing measures

(taking account of RLE )

Prop. 60+ (or Prop. 65 +) –

proportions of the elderly

Prop. RLE 15 - proportion of persons

in age groups with RLE = 15 years or

less

OADR (old-age dependency ratio) -

relative size of the old age population

to the working age population

POADR (prospective old-age dependency

ratio) – number of persons in age

groups with RLE = 15 years or less per

100 persons in age groups older than

20 (15 years old) and having RLE

greater than 15

Aver.age – average age

Median age

PARYL - population average remaining

years of life

Prospective median age

Number of males and females aged 60+, SPb, 1990 - 2010

220000

270000

320000

370000

420000

470000

520000

570000

620000

670000

720000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

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1998

1999

2000

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2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Females 60+ Males 60+

Age for which Remaining Life Expectancy is equal to 15 years

(age: RLE=15) and LE0, SPb, (both sexes), 1990-2010 Age: RLE=15 has increased from 63.9 years in 1990 to 66.4 years in 2009,

Minimal value – 61,4 years in 1993;

Similar trends for age:RLE=15 and LE0

60

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age: RLE-15

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72LE0

age: RLE-15 LE0

Age for which RLE is equal to 15 years

(age: RLE=15), SPb (males, females, both sexes), 1990 – 2009 difference between age: RLE=15 for females and for males varies within 5.1 (in 2009) and 9.5 years (in 1994);

for females and both sexes age:RLE=15 ˃ 60 years; for males it is lower than 60 for 1990-1996 and 1999-2003.

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Both sexes Males Females

Prop. RLE15 and Prop. 60+, SPb (both sexes),%, 1990 – 2009

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

PropRLE15 SPb-Prop.60+

Prop RLE 15, Saint-Petersburg, 1990 - 2009

(for males, females and both sexes) %

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

males females both sexes

POADR and OADR, Saint-Petersburg, 1990-2009

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33

POADR OADR

Average age (for males, females and both sexes; right scale) and its

female/male difference (left scale) , SPb, 1990 – 2010

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Aver age-СПб женщины Aver age-СПб мужчины

Aver age-СПб оба пола

разность Aver age

PARYL and Life Potential

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xxx

ind

eProp

eePropV

0

11

02

PARYL

PARYL and average age, SPb and Russia,

1990 – 2010

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PARYL-Rus both sexes PARYL-SPb both sexesAver age-Rus both sexes Aver age-SPb both sexes

PARYL (for males, females and both sexes; right scale) and its

female/male difference (left scale) , SPb, 1990 – 2010

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PARYL-СПб женщины PARYL-СПб мужчины

PARYL-СПб оба пола

разность PARYL

Decomposition of difference

1212

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,

,2

2

xxxxxx

x xxx

xx

xx

LEstr

eeePropPropProp

ePropProp

Propee

PARYLPARYLPARYL

PARYL: decomposition of difference

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PARYL dif-total SPb PARYL dif-str SPb PARYL dif-LE Spb

Ageing process in SPb (as well as in Russia as a whole) is characterized by significant imbalance between males and females in population age structure and by differences in values of ageing indicators (both conventional and prospective) for males and females.

Male life expectancies are lower than female ones, leading to high prevalence of widowhood, the latter increasing with age.

Gender imbalance has multiple consequences. Thus, in general women have lower pensions than men (at present their pensions are approximately 90-94 % of those for men) because they usually occupy lower positions (and thus have lower wages) and have shorter working periods than men have (due to the maternity leave). It is acknowledged that elderly women more often become victims of cruel treatment in families.

Old women more often than men face the problem of loneliness, especially in rural areas. In turn, old men have serious problem as well. Lonely men have lower abilities to take care of themselves than women have, they require more help than women. Thus, men die at hospitals more often than women.

Gender imbalance in Russia has been more marked than in developed European countries.

Population ageing is developing. This process will certainly be the source of many challenges in the coming decades. Measures to adapt economy and social infrastructure to the ageing society should be elaborated. Without taking account of gender differences, they are doomed to be ineffective.

References

Safarova G. Heterogeneity of Population Ageing in Russia and Policy Implications // Population Ageing in Central and Eastern Europe. Societal and Policy Implications, Ed. A. Hoff, England and USA: Ashgate, 2011. – P. 53 – 76

G. L. Safarova, A. A. Safarova, and A. I. Lisenenkov Gender Aspects of Population Aging in Russia/ Adv. in Gerontology, 2014, vol. 4, No 4, pp. 326-330

Sanderson W., Scherbov S. A new Perspective on Population Ageing/ European Demographic Research Papers VID, 2005, N 3

Sanderson W., Scherbov S. Rethinking Age and Ageing/ Population Bulletin. – vol.63, N 4. –December 2008

Sanderson W. and Scherbov S. Remeasuring Aging/ Science – vol. 329, 10 September 2010

World Population Ageing 2013.- UN DESA, 2013

World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm