prospects for international tourism - united · pdf fileprospects for international tourism...

Sarbuland KahnUNWTO XXXX

Prospects for international tourism

Project LINKUN DESA Expert Group Meeting

on the World Economy,NYC, USA

21-23 October 2013

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)- a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how. - plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the interests of developing countries.- intergovernmental organization with membership includes 162 countries and territoriesand over 400 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities. - encourages the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its negative social and environmental impacts. - committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development.

www2.unwto.org/en/content/who-we-are-0

Tourism is demand side defined “Tourism is a social, cultural and economic phenomenon which entails the movement of people to countries or places outside their usual environment for personal or business/professional purposes. These people are called visitors (which may be either tourists or excursionists; residents or non-residents) and tourism has to do with their activities, some of which imply tourism expenditure.”

Tourism: concepts, forms and indicators

International tourist arrivals by purpose, 2011

Not specified7%

Business and

professional15%

VFR, Other27%

Leisure, recreation

and holidays51%

International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008 (UNWTO and United Nations)

Tourism supply: complex productmany parties involved to make tourism work

PlanningDevelopmentOperations

Travel organisation and booking

Tour Operators & Wholesaler

Travel AgentInternet

Airline companies

DIRECT

INDIRECT

Ministry of tourism and Culture

Communication, press & media

Call centres

Transportation

Car rental

Bus Co / Informal buses

Taxi companies

River Ferry

Customs Office

Port Authority

Ministry of Transportation

Food & Beverage

Bars & Restaurants

Night clubs

Fast food

Food suppliers

Food factories and rural areas

Handicrafts

Handicrafts shops

Handicrafts suppliers

Manufactures

Leisure, excursions and

tours

Tourist guides organizations

Independent tourist guides

Transports guides and escorts

Tourism packages

Tourism assets in destination

Cultural assets: archaeology, communities,

ethnics, museums, tourism attractions, intangible cultural

assets (music, dance, legends,

etc.), festivals, etc.

Management

Maintenance

Support services

Natural assets: lakes, rivers, reefs

and mountains, forests, species of flora & fauna, etc.

Shows Information centres

Grocery shops/ retail outlet

Laundry

Wholesalers and single suppliers

Technology shops/ imports

Industrial factories

Oil station

Infrastructure Support

Construction materials Energy WaterWaste Communications

Informal transportation

Brochures

Security and bank services

Promotional activities

Merchandising of Eastern Anatolia

In transit destinations

(Istanbul, etc.)In origin

Immigration Agency

Itinerant food shops

Kiosks

Food souvenirs Wellness and SPAS

Storage & Distribution

Craft-men

Handicrafts workshops

Restoration

Site signals

Books, CD’s and DVD

Artists (painting, musicians, etc.)

Trade companies

Education Public security and health

From origin to destination In destination

Internet cafés

Hotels

Apartments

Guesthouse

Youth hostels

Shops (in accommodation)

Maintenance

Agricultural and Aquaculture Suppliers: textile, wood, food

Furniture and equipments

Marketing & Sales

Accommodation

Constructors & Real Estate

Support Institutions: Ministry of Tourism and Culture; Chamber of Commerce; Ministry of Interior; Banks, etc

Value Chain Phases

PlanningDevelopmentOperations

Travel organisation and booking

Tour Operators & Wholesaler

Travel AgentInternet

Airline companies

DIRECT

INDIRECT

Ministry of tourism and Culture

Communication, press & media

Call centres

Transportation

Car rental

Bus Co / Informal buses

Taxi companies

River Ferry

Customs Office

Port Authority

Ministry of Transportation

Food & Beverage

Bars & Restaurants

Night clubs

Fast food

Food suppliers

Food factories and rural areas

Handicrafts

Handicrafts shops

Handicrafts suppliers

Manufactures

Leisure, excursions and

tours

Tourist guides organizations

Independent tourist guides

Transports guides and escorts

Tourism packages

Tourism assets in destination

Cultural assets: archaeology, communities,

ethnics, museums, tourism attractions, intangible cultural

assets (music, dance, legends,

etc.), festivals, etc.

Management

Maintenance

Support services

Natural assets: lakes, rivers, reefs

and mountains, forests, species of flora & fauna, etc.

Shows Information centres

Grocery shops/ retail outlet

Laundry

Wholesalers and single suppliers

Technology shops/ imports

Industrial factories

Oil station

Infrastructure Support

Construction materials Energy WaterWaste Communications

Informal transportation

Brochures

Security and bank services

Promotional activities

Merchandising of Eastern Anatolia

In transit destinations

(Istanbul, etc.)In origin

Immigration Agency

Itinerant food shops

Kiosks

Food souvenirs Wellness and SPAS

Storage & Distribution

Craft-men

Handicrafts workshops

Restoration

Site signals

Books, CD’s and DVD

Artists (painting, musicians, etc.)

Trade companies

Education Public security and health

From origin to destination In destination

Internet cafés

Hotels

Apartments

Guesthouse

Youth hostels

Shops (in accommodation)

Maintenance

Agricultural and Aquaculture Suppliers: textile, wood, food

Furniture and equipments

Marketing & Sales

Accommodation

Constructors & Real Estate

Support Institutions: Ministry of Tourism and Culture; Chamber of Commerce; Ministry of Interior; Banks, etc

Value Chain Phases

TourismValue Chain

Why Tourism?=> Tourism is economic activity with substantial impact• Employment• Diversification of economy / Tax revenues• Earning foreign currency / balancing Balance of Payments

inbound tourism = export / outbound = import• Development of weak regions / Regeneration of regions in

decay• Redistribution of wealth between countries and within countries• Multiplier effect > impact in several other sectors• Preservation of culture

Why tourism matters

Source: Korea Tourism Organization (KTO), www.etourkorea.com jk4

jk4 www.etourkorea.com/jsp/eng/about/research/research03.jspjkester, 29/11/2006

2012: one billion international arrivals in one year for the first time

Results 2012International Tourist Arrivals

1035 million+4.0%

International Tourism Receipts(BOP Travel)

US$ 1075 billion (euro 837 bn)+4,0% (real terms)

+International passenger transport

(BOP Transport, passenger)US$ 213 billion (euro 166 bn)

www.unwto.org/facts

Inbound tourism: World

International tourist arrivals, 1995‐2012* (million)

530562

588 604 627677 676 696 690

762807

853

909 927892

949995

403436 436 443 457 476 466 485

533

634680

746

860

942

854

929

1041 1.035 mn

US$ 1.076 bn

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

International tourist arrivals (million)

International tourism receipts (US$ billion)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

40 million arrivals more than in 2011

2012: one billion international arrivals in one year for the first time

1,035,000,000international tourists(overnight visitors)

generating

US$ 1,075,000,000,000international tourism receipts

US$ 1,040 on average per arrival

International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

'90/89

'91/90

'92/91

'93/92

'94/93

'95/94

'96/95

'97/96

'98/97

'99/98

'00/99

'01/00

'02/01

'03/02

'04/03

'05/04

'06/05

'07/06

'08/07

'09/08

'10/09

'11/10

12*/1

1%

cha

nge

over

pre

viou

s ye

ar

International tourist arrivalsInternational tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closelyAsian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower

11S, SARS, economic downturn:receipts more affected

‘Great recession’: receipts more affected and slower to recover


Export worldwide

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US$

billio

n

International Tourism (BOP Travel & Passenger transport)FuelsChemicalsFoodAutomotive products

International tourism vs. other export categories

International tourism:30% of export of services

5.5% of exports of goods and services

International Tourism (travel and passenger transport), 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

WorldNorth

ern Euro

peWest

ern Euro

pe

Central/East

ern Eu.

Souther

n/Medi

ter. Eu.

North-East

AsiaSout

h-East

AsiaOcea

niaSout

h Asia

North Americ

aCarib

bean

Central

America

South A

merica

North Afric

a

Subsaha

ran Afric

aMidd

le East

% of total trade% of trade in services

Share in trade and services by subregion

International tourist arrivals and tourism receipts


Europe, 458 bn, 43%

Africa, 34 bn, 3%

Middle East, 47 bn, 4%

Americas, 213 bn, 20%

Asia and the Pacific, 324

bn, 30%

Asia and the Pacific, 233

mn, 23%

Americas, 162 mn, 16%

Middle East, 53 mn, 5%

Africa, 52 mn, 5%

Europe, 535 mn, 52%

Share 2012 by region

International Tourism Receipts

International Tourist arrivals

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

200920102011

20122013*

747 million intnl tourist arrivals through August, 38 million more than in the same period of 2012

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

International tourism maintains strength

+2.1% ‐3.9% +6.5% +4.9% +5.3%+4.0%

Advanced and emerging economy destinations show solid growth

International Tourist Arrivals (% change)


-4.3

5.3 4.93.9

5.05.1

-3.3

7.8

4.8 4.25.6

-0.3

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

08/07 09/08 10/09 11/10 12/11 13*/12Jan - Aug

Advanced economies

Emerging economies

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)


23

7

2

6

9

4 4 44

7

5

8

6

-6

3 4

76

3

12

4

6

4

0

32

6

4

7

4.05.3

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

WorldNorth

ern Euro

peWest

ern Euro

peCent

ral/East

ern Eu.

Souther

n/Medi

ter. Eu.

North-East

AsiaSout

h-East

AsiaOcea

niaSout

h Asia

North Americ

aCarib

bean

Central

America

South A

merica

North Afric

aSubs

aharan

Africa

Middle E

ast

12/11 13*/12 Jan - Aug

2012 and 2013 year to date by subregion

World and regions: Outbound TourismInternational Tourism Expenditure (US$ billion)

China

United StatesGermany

United Kingdom

Russian Federation

FranceCanada

JapanAustraliaItaly


0

20

40

60

80

100

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

China has become number 1 outbound market in 2012 with US$ 102 bn

International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

China

United S

tates

Germany

United K

ingdom

Russian

Federati

onFran

ceCana

daJap

anAust

ralia

Italy

Singapo

reBraz

ilBelg

iumNeth

erlands

Korea, R

epublic

of

Hong Kong

(Chin

a)Saud

i Arabia

Norway

Sweden

Spain

Untd Arab

Emirates

Switzerlan

dInd

iaMala

ysia

Taiwan

(pr. of

China)

2012 2013* ytd

Major outbound marketsEmerging markets remain hot in 2013

B

R

C

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World

Better

Equal

Worse


25

50

75

100

125

150

175

t1 t2'03

t3 t1 t2'04

t3 t1 t2'05

t3 t1 t2'06

t3 t1 t2'07

t3 t1 t2'08

t3 t1 t2'09

t3 t1 t2'10

t3 t1 t2'11

t3 t1 t2'12

t3 t1 t2'13

t3

Prospects (before)

Evaluation (after)

Confidence on the rise again


International tourist arrivals

8,0

-0,1

2,9

-0,8

10,4

6,0 5,7 6,5

2,1

-3,9

6,54,9 4,0

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Forecast 2013: 3% to 4%

Outlook: World chan

ge(%

)

Actual data Projection 2013(issued January)2012 2013 Jan.‐Aug.

World +4.0% +5.3% +3% to +4%

Europe +3.5% +5.4% +2% to +3%

Asia and the Pacific +6.9% +6.3% +5% to +6%

Americas +4.6% +3.2% +3% to +4%

Africa +6.5% +5.0% +4% to +6%

Middle East ‐6.2% +6.8% +0% to +5%

International tourism: projection full year 2013


Tourism towards 2030

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International arrivals to reach 1.4 billion in 2020 and 1.8 billion by 2030

1 bn

1.8 bn

1.4 bn

Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year


3

0

0

1

9

4

3

9

7

6

7

0

9

3

44

6

5

3

4

8

0

3

-2

10

6 6

7

2

-4

7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29

2010 – 2030 : 3.3%

3.8 % 2.9%2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030

1980 – 1995: 4.4% 1995 – 2010: 3.9%

Average annual growth

Average annual growth Average annual growth

International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million


8

0

0

4

25

1310

3027

22

28

-2

39

15

21 20

33

26

16

22

49

-1

20

-11

70

45 45

56

20

-35

58

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2010 – 2030 : +43 mn

2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030+42 mn + 45 mn

1980 – 1995: +17 mn 1995 – 2010: +28 mn

Average growth

Average growth Average growth

Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015

Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million

emerging economies

advanced economies


0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org

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