The future of Great – Power Politics

MS Bontuyan (Reporter)

  Changes in world politics has always different

views

1.  Optimists : the changes that lead to the

collapse of communism signified “the

Universalization of Western Liberal

democracy as the final form of

government (Fukuyama, 1989)

-  End of history with the western

liberal democracy as the final form

of government

2.  Pessimist: these said changes are not

history’s end but its resumption (Kagan,

2008)

  Both recognize that the Cold war Bipolarity has

been superseded by unipolar configuration of

power which presented new challenges

America’s Unipolar Moment 

  Unipolarity – concentration of power in a single

preponderant state.

  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, US stood as

the dominant power

  Only country with the military, economic

and cultural (soft power) assets to be a

decisive player in any part of the world

(Krauthammer, 1991)

  Its military was stronger than everybody’s,

with defense expenditures exceeding all

other countries combined

  Economic strength complemented US’s military

might.

  US accounted for almost 1/3 of global

GDP

  2/5 of the entire world’s spending on

research and development (Emmott, 2002)

  America wielded enormous Soft Power

  Source of popular culture

  Hub of global communications

  America is a hyperpower (Hubart Vedrine, French

Foreign Minister)

  US perceived the world to be peaceful, prosperous

and safe under its leadership

  This optimistic view was shattered when Al – 

Qaeda operatives crashed hijacked airlines into the

World Trade Centre and the Pentagon.

  America being the hyperpower, it was able to

launch its “global war on terror” following the 9/11

attack.

  With US’s overwhelming power, it tended to act

unilaterally rather than to work with others.

  Unilateral – strategy that relied on

independent self – help behavior

  Acting unilaterally erodes international

support for issues, such as combating

global terrorism where US needs the other

countries support.

  It would be effective if it is seen as

legitimate serving both interests.

  But US’s operations in Afghanistan and

Iraq in 2003 lead many countries to

question US legitimacy.

On 2008 Economic Crisis

  Analysts concluded the fall of US dominance

  US imperial Overstretch – tendency of hegemons

to weaken themselves through costly foreign

pursuit draining their resources

  Gap between internal resources and

external commitment; excessive

expansion

  Afghanistan and Iraq deployment

  Bases spread through 132 foreign

countries

From Unipolarity to Multipolarity?

  “Our prosperity provides foundation for our

power” (Barack Obama) 

  Pays for the military

  Underwrites diplomacy

  Commitment must be balanced with resources

  For Obama, he refuse to set goals beyond

their means

US scaling back of overseas commitment and shift of

global power distribution

US remains dominant

  US remains the first on any scale of power

(economic, military, diplomatic,cultural) despite the

wars and the Great depression

  Challengers would have a hard time overcoming

US’s power in the next few decades 

  US will remain the sole superpower for the

following years along

  US will share the world stage along with regional

powers.

From Superpower to Major Power

  World stage will eventually not be unipolar (US)

but multipolar

  Profligacy at home

 

  Overstretch abroad

  Growing of the “rest” 

  Shift will be gradual with US as one of the major

powers along with EU, China, Japan, India, Russia

and Brazil.

  But some of these will summit the global

hierarchy.

Future Multipolar World

  Composed of several comparatively equal great

powers vying for influence and advantage

  Complex, fluid and fraught with uncertainty

  Many divisions, military allies, economic and trade

rivals.

  Conflict may develop between any pair of great

powers but it would be restricted to one sphere

only

  Ex. US and Japan - commercial conflict

but continues to collaborate on their

security relations.

  Such crosscutting of conflict and

cooperation will affect global stability

Multipolarity

  Some exhibit stability

  WWI – sample of an unstable multipolar system

o  Possessed rigid, polarized alignments

o  Dangerous because adversaries focused

on a single threat – minor mistake is a

huge issue

  A system where powers compete in one sphere

but cooperates in another prevents polarizing a

member of the state system

o  There will be frequent great power conflict

o  As long as security and economic does

not overlap, then there would be no 2

antagonistic camps

  International rules and institutions would be

advantageous in managing fluid and mixed

relationships and conflicts.

  Declining hegemon + unstable hierarchy of major

powers = increase occurrence of warfare (Geller

and Singer, 1998)

  Patterns and practices can change

o  Policy makers may learn from their

previous mistakes and avoid repeating

them.

  Future will be under the hands of the major

powers

o  “Powerful states makes the rules”

(Keohane and Nye, 2001)

o  Rich, powerful and commercially active

great powers at the center of the world

system with the others at the periphery.

SUMMARY

  Great powers possess enormous military and

economic capabilities relative to other states. As a

result, they play a leading role in world politics,

particularly in the international security issues.

  Change is endemic to world politics, but there is

always a constant great power rivalry that

emerges. And victors create a new international

rules and institutions to prevent the repetition of

conflicts.

  the 20th

 century experienced great – power

struggles for world leadership: WW1, WW2, and

the Cold War.

  Proximate causes of WWI was the assassination of

Franz Ferdinand and decisions made by Austria,

Germany and Russia.

  Deeper underlying causes are:

o  Rise of nationalism in Southeastern Europe

o  Growth of German power

o  Polarized systems of military alliances

o  Proximate causes of WW2 was in Hitler’s

appetite for world domination and the

failure of the Western democracies to

appease the Nazi domination.

  Deep causes includes:

o  German resentment over Treaty of

Versailles

o  Rise of hyper nationalistic ideologies

within the axis powers

o  Collapse of the international economic

system

o  US foreign policy of isolationism

  The advent of nuclear weapons transformed world

politics by radically changing the role of the

threats of force play in the international arena.

  Scholars disagree about the causes of Cold war.

Some:

o  Result of the conflict of interest of the

USSR and USA

o  Ideological incompatibilities

o  Misconception of each other’s motives 

  With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, USA

emerged as a preponderant global power.

  But many believed that the current unipolar

system will not persist.

  Factors such as uneven economic growth and

imperial overstretch will alter the relative positions

of the great powers and bring about a multipolar

structure.