public disclosure authorized - world bank · 2014. 5. 14. · contract with the filipino people”...
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Document of The World Bank Group
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No. 78286-PH
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT,
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION,
AND
MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY
COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY
FOR
THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
FOR THE PERIOD FY2015-2018
May 14, 2014
Philippines Country Team, World Bank
East Asia and Pacific Region International Finance Corporation East Asia and Pacific Department Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
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The Last Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for the Republic of the Philippines was discussed with the Executive Board on April 30, 2009 (Report No. 479216‐PH), and the CAS Progress Report was distributed to the Executive Board on April 20, 2011 (Report No. 61274‐PH).
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange rate effective as of May 1, 2014)
Currency unit: Philippine peso (PHP)
US$1 = 44.46
FISCAL YEAR
July 1 – June 30 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AAA Analytical and Advisory Activities ADB Asian Development Bank APIS Annual Poverty Indicator Survey ARMM Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AUD Australian Dollar BPLS Business Process and Licensing Simplification BUB Bottom‐Up Budgeting CAS Country Assistance Strategy CAT DDO Catastrophe ‐ Deferred Drawdown Option CCT Conditional Cash Transfer CDD Community Driven Development CPS Country Partnership Strategy CSOs Civil Society Organizations DPL Development Policy Loan DPO Development Policy Operation DRM Disaster Risk Management DSWD Department of Social Welfare and Development EA Engagement Area EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative FDI Foreign Direct Investment FIES Family and Income Expenditure Survey GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GFMIS Government Integrated Financial Management System GHG Greenhouse Gas GOCCs Government‐Owned and Controlled Corporation IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICT Information and Communication Technology IFC International Finance Corporation IP Indigenous Peoples JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KALAHI‐CIDSS Kapit Bisig Laban sa Kahirapan‐Comprehensive Integrated Delivery of Social Services
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LEAPS Learning, Equity and Accountability Program Support LGU Local Government Units LISCOP Laguna de Bay Institutional Strengthening and Community Participation Project LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MDGs Millennium Development Goals MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MILF Moro Islamic Liberation Front MSME Micro, Small and Medium Sized Enterprises NAIA Ninoy Aquino International Airport NCDDP National Community Driven Development Program NDHS National Demographic and Health Surveys NEDA National Economic and Development Authority NHTS‐PR National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction NGO Nongovernmental Organization NRIMP‐2 National Roads Improvement and Management (APL) Phase 2 NSCB National Statistical Coordination Board OBA Output‐Based Aid PBR Philippine Business Registry PDP Philippine Development Plan PDR Philippine Development Report PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PhRED Philippines Renewal Energy Development PIDP Participatory Irrigation Development Project PPP Public‐Private Partnership PRDP Philippine Rural Development Program PSA Philippines Statistics Authority RAS Reimbursable Advisory Services RIGP Regional Infrastructure for Growth project SWDRP Social Welfare and Development Reform Program SME Small and Medium Enterprise TES Tax Expenditure Statement TF Trust Fund UACS Unified Account Control Structure UHC Universal Health Coverage USD US Dollar WBG World Bank Group WBI World Bank Institute WDI World Development Indicators WDR World Development Report
World Bank IFC MIGA Vice President Axel van Trotsenburg Karin Finkelston Michel WormserCountry Director/Resident Representative Motoo Konishi Jesse Ang ‐ Task Team Leader Kathryn Hollifield Catherine Martin Paul Barbour
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Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... vi
Part I ‐ Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1
Part II ‐ Country Context and Challenges ...................................................................................................... 1 A. Poverty .............................................................................................................................................. 1 B. Other Social Indicators ...................................................................................................................... 7 C. Economic Context ............................................................................................................................. 8 D. Political Context .............................................................................................................................. 12 E. The Government’s Development Vision ......................................................................................... 13
Part III ‐ Lessons from the Current CAS, Client Survey and Multi‐stakeholder Consultations .................... 14 A. Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) Completion Report .................................................................. 14 B. Feedback and Dialogue Mechanisms .............................................................................................. 15
Part IV ‐ The New World Bank Group Country Partnership Strategy FY15‐FY18 ........................................ 15 A. CPS Goals, Analytic Underpinning and Structure ............................................................................ 15 B. Criteria for Selectivity of Bank Group Intervention ........................................................................ 16 C. Other Key Principles of WBG Engagement ..................................................................................... 19 D. Engagement Areas and Strategic Outcomes................................................................................... 21 E. Program Implementation and Management .................................................................................. 32 F. Monitoring Results .......................................................................................................................... 36 G. Managing Risks ............................................................................................................................... 37
Attachments ................................................................................................................................................ 39 Attachment 1: Indicative IBRD AAA and IFC Advisory Services Program FY15‐FY18 .............................. 39 Attachment 2: The Repulic of the Philippines Country Partnership Strategy Results Matrix ................. 45
Annexes ....................................................................................................................................................... 55 Annex 1: Mapping for Results in the Philippines .................................................................................... 56 Annex 2: The Republic of the Philippines ‐ Progress towards the MDGs ............................................... 61 Annex 3: The Republic of the Philippines CAS FY10‐13 Completion Report ........................................... 64 Annex 4: World Bank FY13 Client Survey and CPS Multi‐Stakeholder Consultations........................... 118 Annex 5: IFC‐IBRD Collaboration in the Philippines .............................................................................. 125 Annex 6: The World Bank Institute Contribution to Philippines CPS: FY15‐FY18 ................................. 127 Annex 7: Partnership ............................................................................................................................. 128 Annex 8: Country Gender Plan – Mainstreaming Gender .................................................................... 133 Annex 9: Country at a Glance................................................................................................................ 135 Annex 10: Philippines Social Indicators ................................................................................................ 137 Annex 11: Philippines Key Economic Indicators................................................................................... 138 Annex 12: Philippines Operations Portfolio (IBRD/IDA and Grants) ..................................................... 139 Annex 13: IFC: Committed and Disbursed Outstanding Investment Portfolio ..................................... 140 Annex 14: Map of the Philippines ......................................................................................................... 141
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Boxes
Box 1: One World Bank Group in Action ..................................................................................................... 20 Box 2: World Bank Group Support in the Wake of Typhoon Yolanda ........................................................ 21 Box 3: Australia‐World Bank Philippines Development Trust Fund ........................................................... 34
Tables
Table 1: Philippine Poverty Rates ‐ National Poverty Line ............................................................................ 2 Table 2: Philippine Poverty Rates ‐ International Poverty Lines ................................................................... 2 Table 3: IBRD Lending ................................................................................................................................. 33 Figures Figure 1: Poverty Rates ................................................................................................................................. 3 Figure 2: Poverty Density .............................................................................................................................. 3 Figure 3: Poverty Status 2003, 2006, and 2009 ............................................................................................ 4 Figure 4: Mean Income Relative to Poverty Line 2003‐2009 ........................................................................ 4 Figure 5: Number of People Affected by Natural Disasters 2012 ................................................................. 4 Figure 6: Top Five Disasters in the Philippines in 2012 ................................................................................. 4 Figure 7: National return period losses normalized by percentage of GDP, for all modelled disasters ....... 5 Figure 8: Poverty Rates (%) in Ten Poorest Provinces vs. National Average 2009 ....................................... 5 Figure 9: GDP Growth (%) ............................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 10: East Asia Pacific and Philippine Growth ...................................................................................... 8 Figure 11: Sector Growth .............................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 12: Sector Labor Productivity ............................................................................................................. 9 Figure 13: Sector share to GDP ................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 14: Employment share by sector ..................................................................................................... 10 Figure 15: Gross Fixed Capital Formation ................................................................................................... 11 Figure 16: FDI Flows as a Percent of GDP ................................................................................................... 11 Figure 17: The Philippines CPS Results Chain ............................................................................................. 17 Figure 18: IBRD Portfolio ............................................................................................................................. 35
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The Republic of the Philippines COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY (FY15‐18)
Executive Summary
Since taking office in 2010, the Government of the Philippines has embarked on an ambitious plan to bring down poverty and improve the lives of the poorest segments of the population. The Philippines Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) FY15‐18 supports the government’s plan to promote inclusive economic growth that creates more and better jobs and reduces poverty. As such, the CPS is fully aligned with the World Bank Group (WBG) goals of ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The CPS includes an analysis of how growth patterns and underlying government policies have shaped the country’s development record, notably the limited poverty reduction despite significant economic growth. This CPS will support structural reforms needed to reverse long‐standing policy distortions – food security, land reform, competition, labor market and business climate ‐ which have undermined the creation of more and better jobs and the translation of growth into poverty reduction. High economic growth rates and a government committed to inclusive growth present a valuable opportunity for a new growth path. The WBG will deliver a results‐based program with a selective and integrated package of strategic, analytical, diagnostic and technical assistance services, programs and investment lending.
Country Context and Challenges
According to the national poverty line, poverty affects roughly 25% of the population. Many Filipinos live just above the poverty line, cycling in and out of poverty due to high vulnerability to climatic, disaster, financial and price shocks. Last year alone, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake and a devastating Typhoon (international name Typhoon Haiyan) caused major damage and a significant increase in poverty levels in affected areas. Three out of four poor Filipinos live in rural areas and most of them depend on agriculture. Poor Filipinos belong to households with larger families, have more young‐ and old‐age dependents, and have less access to basic infrastructure and services. Also, there is a strong nexus between poverty and violent conflict: the conflict‐affected Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is the poorest region with a poverty incidence of 52.9%.
Strong fundamentals have enabled the Philippines to record respectable growth in recent years, despite the global slowdown. The rapid growth of remittances has also contributed to the economy’s stability. The country has a strong export sector, a more liberal investment regime, growing transportation and communication infrastructure, and globally competitive entrepreneurial and managerial talents. The country can sustain high growth in globally dynamic sectors, such as electronics and business process outsourcing.
Despite high economic growth, extreme poverty did not significantly decline over the decade through 2012. Extreme poverty, measured as the share of population living under $1.25‐a‐day, was estimated at 19.2% in 2012 compared to 21.6% in 2003. At the same time, while the mean per capita consumption of the bottom 40% grew faster than the total population (between 2006 and 2009), this segment still lives below $2‐a‐day. Data and methodological issues raise questions about the reliability of poverty statistics. Beyond data issues, the limited poverty reduction experienced over the past decade can be explained by high population growth among the poor; low factor productivity (particularly in agriculture and services); frequent and severe natural disasters; and persistent conflicts in parts of the country.
Recent preliminary data for the first semester of 2013 shows a 3 percentage points decline in the national poverty rate compared to the same period in 2012, which may well reflect the positive impact of scaled up social protection programs. Under the CPS, the Bank will undertake further analytic and methodological work to better understand poverty trends and their determinants.
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The Philippine Development Report 2013 (PDR): Creating More and Better Jobs concluded that longstanding policy distortions (i.e. in labor markets, land, agriculture) have slowed long term growth in agriculture and manufacturing. Instead of rising agricultural productivity paving the way for the development of a manufacturing sector, the converse has taken place. Agricultural productivity has remained depressed, manufacturing has failed to grow sustainably, and a low‐productivity, low‐skill services sector has emerged as the dominant sector of the economy. This growth pattern has failed to provide good jobs to majority of Filipinos, has led to a substantial outmigration of many of the country’s best and brightest people, and has failed to turn strong growth into poverty reduction.
In the coming years the jobs challenge facing the Philippines will remain formidable. Good jobs ‐ jobs (or economic opportunities) that raise real wages and bring people out of poverty ‐ need to be provided to about 10 million Filipinos who were either unemployed (3 million) or underemployed (7 million) in 2012, and to about 1.15 million potential entrants to the labor force every year from 2013 to 2016. In total, approximately 14.6 million jobs will need to be created through 2016.
Government’s Development Vision
President Benigno S. Aquino came into power in June 2010, winning with a large margin, on a platform focusing on good governance, anti‐corruption and poverty reduction. He then entered into a “Social Contract with the Filipino People” based on: transformational leadership, economy, government service, gender equality, peace and order, and the environment. After nearly four years in office, the government has made progress on the reallocation of resources to reform programs in health, education and social protection and increase budget transparency. Prospects are improving for sustained peace and development in Mindanao.
The Social Contract is reflected in the 2011‐2016 Philippine Development Plan (PDP) with its theme of inclusive growth. In April 2014, the government issued the 2011‐2016 PDP Midterm Update. The midterm highlights the country’s robust economic performance, strong fiscal space and unprecedented level of international confidence. It also outlines remaining challenges, including slow implementation of vital infrastructure projects, continued high cost of doing business, and evidence that the benefits of growth have not turned into greater poverty reduction.
WBG Program and Development Solutions
In support of the PDP, and consistent with the WBG twin goals, the CPS for FY15‐18 aims to promote inclusive growth, reduce poverty and support shared prosperity.
Selectivity. In line with these goals, the CPS establishes three criteria for selectivity of WBG interventions: Focus on Poverty and Shared Prosperity; Transformative Engagements; and Convergence/Multi‐Sector Solutions. The WBG will assess all activities through the lens of inclusive growth, poverty reduction and shared prosperity, utilizing diagnostics to assess the impact of interventions on the poor and on the bottom 40%. The WBG will evaluate all activities for a transformational value such as changing behavior and incentives that alter outcomes, a demonstration effect, and/or a comparative advantage for the WBG. The WBG will support the government’s strategy of convergence, bringing together teams to break down sector silos. In this context, the Bank will continue to move away from a sector focus with standalone projects/programs, to programmatic/multi‐sectoral approaches.
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Engagement areas. The CPS is organized in five engagement areas:
1. Transparent and accountable governance: strengthen public finances, fiscal transparency and financial accountability; strengthen public sector institutions; and strengthen demand‐side pressure for government accountability.
2. Empowerment of the poor and vulnerable: improve poverty measurement and socio‐economic data systems; improve health outcomes; improve quality of basic education and access for the vulnerable; and strengthen social safety nets.
3. Rapid, inclusive and sustained economic growth: strengthen economic policy, support private sector development, improve the investment climate, including greater access to finance; and increase economic growth, productivity, and jobs in rural areas.
4. Resilience to climate change, environment, and disaster risk management: increase physical and financial resilience to natural disaster and climate change impacts and improve natural resource management and sustainable development.
5. Peace, institution building, and social and economic opportunity: The WBG recognizes the window of opportunity afforded by recent progress with the peace process and will support social and economic development in conflict‐affected regions. The WBG will scale up efforts to increase trust within communities and between citizens and the state in conflict areas and develop and implement a “Peace Dividend” program for Mindanao/Bangsamoro.
Working as “One WBG”. The CPS program aims to fully leverage the resources and expertise of the whole WBG (IBRD, IFC and MIGA), particularly to mobilize private sector investment and support job creation. The WBG will focus on opportunities for transformational engagements, with joint activities planned in agri‐business, trade logistics, financial sector, and infrastructure/Public Private Partnerships (PPPs).
The WBG will deliver a focused, selective and integrated package of support, involving analytic/advisory and financial services. In non‐lending support, the WBG will support integrated analytical and advisory assistance (AAA) for each engagement area. The majority of new IBRD financing will be for development policy operations (DPO) and Program‐for‐Results financing. The Bank will no longer support single agency/single sector investment projects, unless as part of an integrated, multi‐sectoral program. The indicative lending program for FY15‐FY18 is expected to fall within the range of $600 million to $1 billion per year, averaging approximately $800 million per year, with firm commitments through the end of President Aquino’s term (to 2016). Trust funds (about 5% of the total portfolio) will continue to be fully integrated into the Bank program, with a sharper focus on high priority, strategic areas.
The IFC will continue to support private sector development, access to finance, rural and “green” investment, and promote inclusive urban growth. The IFC is targeting to commit $250‐300 million in investments in the next couple of years. MIGA currently has no exposure in the Philippines, but will continue to explore possibilities for engagement in infrastructure.
Risks and Mitigating Factors
The proposed CPS will face several risks that will need to be mitigated. With presidential elections in 2016, the government will need to navigate between concrete results on the ground and steady implementation of the longer‐term reform agenda. The Bank will use the opportunity of the CPS Progress Report (summer 2016) to review and adjust the CPS program. The government’s institutional and governance reform objectives are complex and require a medium‐ to longer‐term implementation horizon. The WBG will place a strong emphasis on building constituencies for reform, supporting
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stronger client participation, “learning by doing,” and developing institutional capacity. Despite the encouraging progress on the peace process in Mindanao, political challenges remain and the security environment remains volatile. As requested by the Government, the WBG will continue to accompany this process, providing basic social services, livelihood and local institution building, and will be ready to scale‐up support as the peace process progresses.
To address program delivery risks, the Bank will support better alignment of projects and programs with government priorities. The Bank has fully mainstreamed all decision making relative to the trust fund portfolio into the overall IBRD work program decision making process. The recent introduction of Reimbursable Advisory Services (RAS) will also help to reduce reliance on trust funds and augment the amount of AAA that can be funded through internal Bank resources.
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The Republic of the Philippines
COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY (FY15‐18) Part I ‐ Introduction
1. High economic growth rates and a government committed to inclusive growth provide the Philippines with a valuable opportunity for a new growth path that creates more and better jobs and reduces poverty. The government is looking to the World Bank Group (WBG) to help meet its development challenges by sharing international experience to effect lasting improvements. In response, the WBG will deliver a focused, selective and integrated package of strategic, analytical, diagnostic and technical assistance services, programs and investment lending.
2. The Philippines Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) covers FY15‐18 and is fully aligned with the goals of the Government’s Philippine Development Plan (2011‐2016; PDP) and the Midterm Update (2014). Accordingly, the overarching goals of the CPS are to promote inclusive growth, reduce poverty, and support shared prosperity, which are directly linked to the WBG’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. The new CPS is a joint World Bank, International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) strategy.
3. The analytical underpinning of the CPS is the Philippine Development Report 2013 (PDR): Creating More and Better Jobs,1 which is based on findings from prior PDRs, notably the PDR 2011: Generating Inclusive Growth to Uplift the Poor. The 2013 PDR analyzes how growth patterns and underlying government policies in the Philippines have shaped the country’s development record. The new CPS is aligned with the report’s conclusions and will support the structural reforms needed to reverse the decades of policies that have undermined the creation of more and better jobs and facilitate the transformation of growth into poverty reduction.
4. This CPS has four main parts. After the introduction (Part I), Part II summarizes the country context and constraints related to poverty and income distribution patterns, progress on social indicators, the economic and political context, and the government’s development vision of inclusive growth. Part III presents an evaluation of the effectiveness and lessons from the current Country Assistance Strategy FY10‐13 and describes the inputs into the preparation of the new CPS. The new partnership strategy is presented with program selectivity criteria and engagement areas. Finally, Part IV presents the approach for implementing the CPS with arrangements for monitoring results and risk.
Part II ‐ Country Context and Challenges
A. Poverty
5. High economic growth in the Philippines over the last decade has not yet translated into notable poverty reduction. According to the official poverty estimates, which use a national poverty line as a benchmark, income poverty has remained almost unchanged since 2003 at around 25% (equivalent to about 24 million Filipinos).. Similar to the overall poverty, the food poverty is high and has
1 The Philippine Development Report 2013 (PDR): Creating More and Better Jobs is a consensus report reflecting the collective wisdom of the country’s stakeholders based on extensive consultations that shaped the report’s analysis and recommendations with over 300 people from government, business, labor, informal sector, academe, and civil society. All WBG sectors contributed, with IFC providing vital inputs in the area of investment climate. The report also leveraged a number of international experiences to show that reforms, while difficult, are needed before a country can make growth more inclusive. The PDR is available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/philippines/publication/philippine‐development‐report‐2013‐creating‐more‐and‐better‐jobs.
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been slow to decline. In 2012, the incidence of food poverty was estimated at 10.4% of the population, suggesting that about 10 million people did not to have sufficient income to meet their basic food requirements.2
6. Recent preliminary data shows that poverty declined in the first half of 2013. The latest official poverty statistics show a 3 percentage point decline in the national poverty rate between the first semesters of 2012 and 2013, from 27.9 % to 24.9 %. The percentage of food poor Filipinos also declined from 13.4% to 10.7% in the same period. This decline may well reflect the impact of significant recent Government efforts to expand economic opportunities and social programs.3
Table 1: Philippine Poverty Rates ‐ National Poverty Line (% of population) 1991 2003 2006 2009 2012 2013
Poverty rate full year 34.4 24.9 26.6 26.3 25.2 ‐ 1st semester ‐ ‐ 28.8 28.6 27.9 24.9 Food poverty full year 17.6 11.1 12.0 10.9 10.4 ‐ 1st semester ‐ ‐ 14.2 12.3 13.4 10.7
7. The poverty estimates at the international poverty lines show a modest decline between 2003 and 2012. The share of Filipinos with per capita consumption expenditure below the international poverty line of PPP $1.25/day, declined modestly from 22.6% in 2006 to 19.2% in 2012. The share of Filipinos who lived below PPP $2.00/day also declined from 45% in 2006 to 42.2% in 2012. While the mean per‐capita consumption of the bottom 40% grew faster than the total population between 2006 and 2009 (3.2% versus 1.5 % annually), this group is still very poor living below PPP $2/day.4
Table 2: Philippine Poverty Rates ‐ International Poverty Lines 2003 2006 2009 2012
$1.25 a day poverty5 Headcount (%) 21.6 22.6 18.4 19.2 Poverty gap (%) 5.4 5.5 3.7 4.1
$2 a day poverty Headcount (%) 43.4 45.0 41.5 42.2 Poverty gap (%) 15.8 16.3 13.8 14.4
Gini index (%) ‐ consumption 44.0 44.1 43.0 43.0
8. Inequality has also declined modestly over the past decade and remains relatively high. In 2012, inequality in income distribution as measured by Gini coefficient was 47.3, only slightly lower than in 2003 when it was 48.9. Inequality in consumption expenditure distribution is somewhat lower – the Gini index was 43 in 2012, versus 44 in 2003. Both Gini indices put the Philippines among the countries with the highest inequality in the region.
9. Three out of four poor Filipinos live in rural areas and most of them depend on agriculture. Poverty in rural areas (39.4%) is significantly higher than the national average (26.5%) and more than
2 Unless otherwise indicated, poverty estimates presented here are based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) 2009. Source: Philippine National Statistics Authority, National Statistical Coordination Board, 2014 (www.nscb.gov.ph). The official poverty estimates in the Philippines use income as welfare aggregate. Preliminary estimates of poverty at international poverty lines are based on FIES 2012 and were calculated by the World Bank staff. 3 The 2012 FIES was released by the Philippine Statistics Authority in late March 2014. A full year of APIS 2013 data is expected to be released later this year. The Bank will use these date sets for the analysis of poverty and shared prosperity. 4 Both have increased at $1.25 to 19.23 and at $2.00 to 42.2%, but these changes are not statistically significant. 5 Preliminary estimates based on 2003‐2012 FIES and using the World Bank povcal method and PPP conversion factor. These estimates use consumption expenditure as welfare aggregate.
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three times that in urban areas (13.2%). The poverty gap and severity in rural areas (11.2%) is also four times higher than in urban areas (3.1%). While less than a quarter of the population derive most of their income from agriculture, agricultural households—those who depend mainly on income from agricultural‐related activities—account for half of the country’s poor. Annex 1 provides additional poverty maps, overlaid with selected Bank beneficiary and/or project data.
Figure 1: Poverty Rates Figure 2: Poverty Density – 000’s of People
10. Poor Filipinos belong to households with larger families, have more young‐ and old‐age dependents, and have less access to basic infrastructure:
Out of 100 Filipinos…
Out of 100 POOR Filipinos…
Out of 100 Filipino’s in the bottom 40%
51 live in rural areas 75 74 40 belong to households whose head works in
agriculture 66 62
51 belong to a household with more than five members
73 66
5 average household size 6 6 28 dependency ratio (> 15 only) 43 39 14 do not have access to electricity 37 31 47 do not have their own water source 77 73 8 do not have any toilet facility 20 17
Source of basic data: Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) 2009.
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11. At the same time, urban poverty has been increasing in recent years. The urban poverty incidence increased from 11.3% in 2003 to 13.2% in 2009. With no or low paying jobs, migrants are not able to afford decent housing and Philippine cities have one of the highest proportions of informal settlers (about 30 percent reside in Metro Manila).
12. Many Filipinos live just above the poverty line, cycling in and out of poverty due to high vulnerability to climatic, disaster, financial and price shocks. A 20% increase in the poverty line following a major food shock would increase the poverty incidence by over 9%. Between 2003 and 2009, 44% of the population was poor at least once, one in three Filipinos were persistently poor, and two out of three households moved in and out of poverty. About 90% of the transitory poor have incomes hovering near the poverty line.
Figure 3: Poverty Status 2003, 2006, and 2009 Figure 4: Mean Income Relative to Poverty Line 2003‐2009
13. As a means of coping with such shocks, the poor are plunged into deeper levels of indebtedness to make up for lost livelihoods and income. They reduce spending for health, education and other basic needs, including decreased food intake. The limited resources that are left are diverted to meet the most basic needs, constraining the ability to restore pre‐shock incomes and sources of livelihood. These events also push victims, who previously were not poor, into poverty. Disaster impacts also tend to differ between men and women: the mortality rates for women are generally higher than those for men as women are less likely to know how to swim and tend to step in to protect children and the elderly.6 Figure 5: Number of People Affected by
Natural Disasters 2012 (million) Figure 6: Top Five Disasters in the Philippines in 2012
(by no. of affected population)
Source: Citizens’ Disaster Response Center , 2012 Philippine Disaster Report
6 WB Working Report No 65833: “Making women's voices count addressing gender issues in disaster risk management in East Asia and the Pacific”, November 28, 2011.
NEVER POOR56%
Transitory poor66%
Chronic poor34%
POOR AT
LEAST ONCE44%
34.0
54.1
9.21.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2
0102030405060
Share (%
)
2.233.33.344.35.1712.5
43.1
ChadSomaliaSudan
Korea Dem RepKenyaIndia
PakistanNigeria
PhilippinesChina
FLOOD, 7,827,951
TROPICAL CYCLONE, 3,847,929
EARTH QUAKE, 292,637
ARMED CONFLICT, 118,314 FIRE, 52,349
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14. The year 2013 was a devastating year for the Philippines: a significant earthquake then super‐Typhoon Yolanda (international name Typhoon Haiyan) caused major damage and a significant increase in poverty levels in affected areas. On October 15, 2013, the Central Visayas region experienced a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that affected 3.2 million people, caused 223 casualties, displaced over 355,000 people, and damaged over 69,000 homes. In November 2013, Yolanda, a category 5 typhoon with winds speeds over 300 km per hour, struck central Philippines, displacing over four million people, with over 6,200 reported fatalities and almost 1,800 people still missing.7 Over 1.1 million houses were damaged and half of these were totally destroyed. The immediate impact of Yolanda on poverty was severe. Estimates are that in the Western, Central, and Eastern Visayas regions, where the pre‐typhoon poverty rates were significantly above the national average, an additional 2.3 million people (half a million households) were pushed into poverty in the worst affected areas.
15. Increased vulnerability to natural disasters has become “the new normal”. The Philippines is expected to incur (on a long‐term average basis) about $4.6 billion per year in damage to assets due to earthquake ground shaking, tropical cyclone‐induced wind and precipitation, and non‐tropical cyclone‐induced precipitation. In the next 25 years, the Philippines has a 40% chance of experiencing a loss of more than $18.8 billion and casualties greater than 70,000 people, and a 10% chance of experiencing a loss of more than $44.8 billion and casualties greater than 95,000 people.8
Figure 7: National return period losses normalized by percentage of GDP, for all modelled disasters
16. There is also a strong nexus between poverty and violent conflict in the Philippines. In parts of the country where levels of conflict are high, poverty is severe. The conflict‐affected Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is the poorest region in the country, with a poverty incidence of 52.9% against the national average of 25.2%. The ten poorest provinces in the country are considered either conflict‐affected or vulnerable to conflict.
Figure 8: Poverty Rates (%) in Ten Poorest Provinces vs. National Average 2009
17. There is some improvement evident in other indicators of poverty. Between 2003 and 2009, the bottom 40% became more educated as reflected by the gradually increasing share of their household heads entering and graduating from high school. The share of those in the bottom 40% who are employed in the industry and services sectors also increased, moving away from the seasonality of agricultural employment. Consequently, they have become less dependent on agricultural incomes and
7 Source: Government of the Philippines, May 5, 2014. www.gov.ph/crisis‐response/updates‐typhoon‐yolanda/. 8 Source: The Philippines Catastrophe Risk Profile; AIR/ADPC on behalf of DOF‐IFG, 2014. This analysis takes into account a 10,000‐year catalogue of possible events to provide a more robust quantification of disaster risks in comparisons to short term historical records.
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0
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informal work, as also reflected by a declining share of households who obtain majority of their incomes from agriculture‐related activities and the increasing share of households who shift from informal employment towards wage employment. Some changes are also seen in the living conditions of the bottom 40% as more of them now build their homes using strong materials and have direct access to clean water and sanitation. The National Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) of 2003 and 2008 also show that health indicators of those at the Bottom 40 improved together with the rest of the population. 18. The government has revised the original target to halve the official poverty rate from 34.4% in 1991 to 17.2% by 2015, to between 18% and 20% by 2016. This change takes into consideration the slow response of poverty to economic growth and the setbacks in 2013 due to the impact of disasters. With 25.2% of the population in poverty in 2012, achieving this goal would require reducing poverty by 5 to 7 percentage points in the next three years. To achieve poverty reduction from 19.23% in 2012 to 15.4% by 2015, based on the rate of extreme poverty measured by using the poverty line of PPP$1.25‐a‐day, will require an average annual 1.3 percentage point decline. While the latest poverty statistics for the first semester of 2013 looks promising, achieving either target (national poverty rate or the poverty line of PPP$1.25‐a‐day) will require additional efforts, particularly in areas with high poverty incidence.
19. Relative to other countries in the Region, the Philippines has lagged behind in poverty reduction. In terms of achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving the poverty rate at PPP$1.25 a day between 1990 and 2015, the extreme poverty rate has declined in the Philippines from 30.7% in 1991 to 19.2% in 2012 or by about 38%. In contrast, in China, this rate has declined from 60.2 to 11.8 (by 80%); in Indonesia from 54.3 to 18.1 (by 66%) and in Vietnam from 63.7 to 16.9% (by 73%). 20. Stubbornly high poverty and inequality in the Philippines over the last decade can be explained by several factors, including: high population growth, particularly at the bottom of the distribution;9 low productivity in agriculture, which prevents the poor most of whom are (self)‐employed in agriculture to earn more and get themselves out of poverty; slow creation of higher productivity jobs in manufacturing; low human capital formation among the poor; frequent natural disasters that tend to affect the poorest most severely and push significant numbers of households into poverty; and persistent conflicts in parts of the country. The pro‐poor policies that have been implemented by the government such as conditional cash transfers and universal health coverage of the bottom 40% of the population were fully rolled out in 2013 and their potential impact could not have been reflected in the 2012 household survey data. Other policies implemented by the government, such as expansion of basic education services, might take even longer to show any impact on poverty.
21. Despite the analysis completed to date, the Philippine poverty story remains a puzzle. Why has there been some decrease in poverty based on the international poverty lines (at least from 2003 to 2009) and based on non‐income measures of poverty, while poverty based on the national poverty line does not seem to have changed through 2012? There are methodological issues:
Questions have been raised whether the Philippine Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), on which all poverty estimates are calculated, accurately captures income and expenditures of the Philippine households. For example, the consumption expenditures reported by FIES and those reported by the national accounts have diverged significantly during the last decade. In 2000, the FIES reported consumption expenditures accounted for 70% of the final household consumption
9 The population in the Philippines has increased from 77.7 million in 2000 to 96.7 million in 2012 or by about 19.0 million people. According to DHS, the fertility rate in the bottom quintile of the income distribution is 5, while in the top quintile it is 1.8 births per woman in reproductive age.
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expenditures reported by the national accounts. In 2012, this ratio dropped to only 49%.
There are issues on the sampling frame which is still based on 2000 Population Census, although a population census was conducted in 2010 and could have been used for sampling of the 2013 FIES.
The poverty line calculation methodology and method for indexing it over time raises questions. For instance, there is a question regarding the accuracy of prices which are used to calculate and index provincial poverty lines. A quick look at the provincial poverty lines in 2009 and 2012 suggests that the poverty line in the National Capital Region (greater Metro Manila) recorded one of the smallest changes in the nominal poverty line between 2009 and 2012: well below the national average. At the same time, some provinces for the same basket of goods have recorded an increase of 20% or even 30% (two‐three times the national average).
Finally, the share of non‐food expenditures in the poverty line is constant, fixed at about 30% across all provinces. In reality, this share is not constant but varies with the level of provincial mean income. Keeping the share of non‐food expenditures fixed also implies that non‐food expenditures are indexed at the food prices and introduces an element of a relative poverty line into poverty comparisons over time.
22. Preliminary World Bank staff estimates show that using more consistent alternative poverty lines yield somewhat greater declines in poverty incidence, gap, and severity especially in recent years. At the Government’s request, the World Bank will work with the newly established Philippine Statistical Authority to examine these issues and their impact on the poverty statistics as a priority in the early part of the CPS implementation period.
B. Other Social Indicators 23. Progress towards the MDGs in the Philippines is mixed. The country is on track to meet many MDGs: promoting gender equality and empowering women, reducing infant and child mortality, combatting malaria and tuberculosis, and improved access to safe water.10 However, a number of MDGs are at risk, including school retention to grade 6, primary education completion, maternal mortality, births attended by a skilled health professional, and contraceptive prevalence. Annex 2 provides a full assessment of progress towards the MDG targets.
Table 3 – Progress on MDGs MGD Indicators
Baseline Current Level
Target
Probability of meeting Target by 2015
Education Net enrollment in primary education (%) 84.6 91.2 100 medium Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 6 (%) 69.7 73.8 100 low Primary education completion rate 64.2 71.0 100 low
Health Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 live births) 57.0 22.0 19.0 high Under‐five mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 80.0 30.0 26.7 high Proportion of 1 year‐old immunized against measles 77.9 90.6 100 high Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births) 209 221 52.2 low Proportion of births attended by skilled health professional 58.8 72.2 100 low Contraceptive prevalence rate (% of married women aged 15‐49) 40. 48.9 100 low
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB): NSCB MDG Watch.
10 Despite the projection of meeting the MDG target for water and sanitation in 2015, universal access for rural sanitation will not be attained until 2035. Further the disparity between urban and rural coverage remains to be sharp. The practice of open defecation is largely a phenomenon among the poor rural households (NDHS 2008).
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24. Overall, the Philippines fares well on gender equality and has recorded gains in the political participation of women; however, challenges remain related to the attainment of key MDGs affecting women (as above) and women’s participation in the labor market.11 The Philippines ranked 5th out of 135 countries on the 2013 Global Gender Index, an improvement of its ranking of 8th place in 2012. School enrollment rates for girls and other education indicators surpass those of boys.12 Despite the fact that the structures and systems of political parties tend to be male dominated, there has been a marked increase in the number of women elected to the House of Representatives and in the number of female mayors. While the judiciary is male dominated (over 60% of justices and judges across all levels are men), the country marked a significant breakthrough with the appointment of the first female Chief Justice of the Supreme Court in 2012. Yet, while employment and unemployment rates for men and women are roughly the same, only about half of women participate in the labor force, compared to almost 80% of men. Further, women dominate in traditional, socially ascribed careers—household work, education and health care.
C. Economic Context
25. Strong fundamentals have enabled the Philippines to record respectable growth in recent years, despite the global slowdown. The Philippines benefits from strong macroeconomic fundamentals, manifested by low and stable inflation, falling debt ratios, healthy current account surpluses, high international reserves, and a stable banking sector. While performance has historically lagged behind its neighbors, it is now considered a high performer in the region.
Figure 9: GDP Growth (%) Figure 10: East Asia Pacific and Philippine Growth %
26. The rapid growth of remittances has also contributed to the economy’s stability; even if it reflects a huge outmigration of many of the country’s best and brightest. The growing supply of foreign exchange has reversed the country’s past record of recurring current account deficits, and is now a major support to growth by helping to shore up consumer spending. On average, remittances account for about 18% of household earned income (i.e., wages and entrepreneurial income, as opposed to passive income such as remittances and interest from savings) rising to 24% for the top two income deciles, which account for most overseas Filipino workers. Of the 500,000 college graduates every year, about 200,000 find jobs abroad. About 10 million Filipinos and their families have left the country for better opportunities, reflecting both the lack of adequate employment opportunities at home and the global competitiveness of Filipinos.
11 Source: 2012 Philippines Country Gender Assessment, March 2014. 12 The gender parity index for elementary school was 1.03 in 2009. Combined gross enrollment for girls 83 percent versus 79 percent for boys; cohort survival at the secondary level is 68 percent for girls, versus 57 percent for boys.
3.14.4
2.93.65
6.74.85.2
6.64.2
1.1
7.6
3.6
6.87.2
0
3
6
9
12
15
1999
2000
2001
2002
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2004
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2007
2008
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Source: WDI and various government statistics. Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
5%
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27. A vibrant private sector benefits from structural reforms that the government has embarked on since the 1980s. These reforms underpin current growth and continued macroeconomic stability despite weaknesses in the global economy. The reforms include liberalization of key sectors, such as airlines, telecommunications, and power in the 1990s, followed by financial and regulatory reforms in the wake of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and fiscal consolidation in 2005. The country now has a strong export sector, a more liberal investment regime, growing transportation and communication infrastructure, and globally competitive entrepreneurial and managerial talents. The country can sustain high growth in globally dynamic sectors, such as electronics and business process outsourcing. Prior to the recent global economic slowdown, electronics, consisting mainly of semiconductors and electronic data processors, accounted for over 50% of merchandise exports. The business process outsourcing industry is also growing exponentially. The Philippines now ranks as the top destination for voice support/call centers and has a strong potential to compete in knowledge‐based products in the coming years.
28. Despite these strengths, the Philippines has yet to reach its potential due to the lack of growth in labor‐intensive manufacturing and agriculture sectors. Despite a head start in manufacturing compared to its neighbors, the country did not industrialize and agriculture failed to reduce poverty substantially. This situation was the result of low public investment in infrastructure, protectionist policies (such as a rice import quota that did not stimulate rice production, but did substantially raise consumer prices), and land reform and administration policies that failed to provide broad and secure access to land for smallholders and small businesses. Private investment incentives were undermined, which reduced productivity growth. High food and agriculture input costs contributed to high real wages and production costs in downstream agribusiness, manufacturing, and services. As a result, the cost of living increased and employment and real income growth slowed.
29. Agricultural productivity remained depressed, manufacturing failed to grow sustainably, and a low‐productivity, low‐skill service sector emerged as the dominant sector of the economy. Modest agricultural growth was not accompanied by increases in labor productivity. Manufacturing growth was not impressive, manufacturing labor productivity was stagnant, while key labor‐intensive sub‐sectors, such as garments, were shedding jobs. Without a rapidly growing manufacturing sector, the service sector absorbed the excess labor from agriculture. However, more than three‐quarters of the service sector is composed of low‐wage and low‐skilled jobs, and there has been no increase in productivity in the service sector.
Figure 11: Sector Growth Figure 12: Sector Labor Productivity
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Figure 13: Sector share to GDP (percent) Figure 14: Employment share by sector (percent)
30. Decades of underinvestment in physical infrastructure accompanied the slow growth of agriculture and manufacturing. From close to 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the 1970s, investment in physical capital declined to about 20% of GDP in the last decade. In the public sector, low tax effort and weak public investment management limited public infrastructure spending to less than 2.5% of GDP annually. Maintenance of existing infrastructure was likewise constrained. The relatively long foreign investment negative list has limited foreign direct investment (FDI) growth and the country’s public education and health systems have been underfunded (until recently), holding back labor force development.
31. Economic growth and poverty reduction in the Philippines has not benefited from urbanization gains as much as other neighboring countries. In the last five decades, Philippine cities and large municipalities have absorbed more than 50 million people. Philippine cities currently share more than 70% of the country’s GDP. However, other countries in Asia experienced higher growth in economic output as they become increasingly urbanized. From 1970 to 2006, China and India demonstrated an average 6% increase in per capita GDP for every 1% increase in urban population while Vietnam and Thailand exhibited 8% and 10%, respectively. The Philippines, however, showed less than 2% increase per 1% change in population. The country’s urbanization trajectory is uniquely affected by, among other factors, the archipelagic geography, leapfrogging the industrialization process (i.e., from agriculture to service sector dominance), and highly fragmented structure for spatial and infrastructure planning and poor metropolitan governance. Philippine cities have not been able to keep pace with explosive urban population growth as evidenced in infrastructure and housing deficiencies, traffic congestion and environmental pollution.
32. The private sector’s reluctance to invest and create more and better quality jobs reflects the country’s weak investment climate for firms of all sizes. Investment levels in the Philippines have been the lowest among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN‐5) members,13 and foreign direct investment flows have also lagged behind. Among the investment climate constraints, corruption is viewed as the biggest concern, followed by infrastructure deficiencies and inefficient government bureaucracy. Costly business and labor regulations have also contributed to weak investment and job creation.
13 ASEAN‐5 refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
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Figure 15: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Figure 16: FDI Flows as a Percent of GDP
33. This pattern of growth has resulted in a much lower pace and quality of job creation relative to the country’s potential and other similar countries. Unemployment and underemployment rates have remained stubbornly high at about 8 and 20%, respectively. Men, workers with higher educational attainment, and the youth have the highest incidences of unemployment, while the poor have the highest incidence of underemployment. Average real household income in 2009 was lower than in 1997. Informality is also very high. About 75% of workers do not have written contracts, social insurance, or access to severance pay. These informally employed workers face varying degrees of vulnerabilities to income and price shocks.
34. The lack of good jobs among low‐income earners has contributed to slower progress in reducing poverty and inequality. The middle class14 is relatively small at around 15% of the population, of which about a third resides or works abroad. This slow progress in reducing poverty, despite higher growth in the same period, points to deeper structural problems, which manifest themselves in a pattern of economic growth that makes poverty reduction stubbornly difficult. Moreover, inequality has worsened in the last three decades, indicating a growth pattern that does not benefit the poor as much as it benefits the rich.
35. In the coming years, the jobs challenge facing the Philippines will remain formidable. Good jobs—economic opportunities that raise real wages and bring people out of poverty—need to be provided to about 10 million Filipinos who were either unemployed (3 million) or underemployed (7 million) in 2012, and to about 1.15 million potential entrants to the labor force every year from 2013 to 2016. In total, approximately 14.6 million jobs will need to be created through 2016. In addition, better jobs need to be provided to another 21 million Filipinos who are informally employed.15 The majority of the population who are underemployed are rural and in the agriculture sector; the majority of the unemployed are urban and better educated, including college graduates.
36. The context and challenges noted above are laid out in the Philippine Development Report 2013 (PDR): Creating More and Better Jobs. In summary, the report concludes the country’s long history of policy distortions has slowed the growth of agriculture and manufacturing. Lack of competition in key sectors, insecurity of property rights, complex regulations (related to the labor
14 Households with incomes at or above $700 per month after tax are considered to be middle class. 15 Source: The Philippine Development Report 2013 (PDR): Creating More and Better Jobs, Op. Cit.
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Source: WDI, UNCTAD, various countries' official statistics
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market, business environment, etc.), and severe underinvestment by the government and the private sector in infrastructure have led to this growth pattern. This growth pattern has failed to provide good jobs to the majority of Filipinos, and has led to a substantial outmigration of many of skilled people.
D. Political Context
37. President Benigno S. Aquino III came into power in June 2010, winning with a large margin as candidate of the Liberal Party on a platform focusing on good governance, anti‐corruption and poverty reduction.16 The president’s election slogan Kung Walang Corrupt, Walang Mahirap (without corruption there is no poverty) is the focus of his presidency. As part of his electoral campaign, President Aquino entered into a 16 point “Social Contract with the Filipino People” based on: transformational leadership (good governance, empowering people, and delivery of health and education services), economy (inclusive growth, competitiveness and jobs), government service, gender equality, peace and order, and the environment.
38. After nearly four years in office, there is a general perception that the president has done well in implementing the country’s development agenda. He has appointed officials with credible track records to head key government entities, such as the Supreme Court Justice, the Ombudsman’s Office, the Commission on Audit and the Bureau of Internal Revenue (all women). Several of the government’s flagship programs—conditional cash transfers (CCTs), community‐driven development, grassroots participatory budgeting and Open Data—are promoting good governance by reaching out directly to the citizens through transparent and accountability‐improving processes.
39. The government has made considerable progress implementing the Social Contract with the reallocation of resources to reform programs in health, education and social protection and increased transparency in budget preparation and implementation, including engagement with civil society organizations (CSOs) and publication of national government data on a website to promote efficiency and transparency. In addition, a highly‐controversial Reproductive Health Law and the “Sin Tax” Law were signed into law in December 2012. There is significant opportunity for further reform, notably through accelerating the pace of reforms in improving the investment climate, building key infrastructure for growth, and tackling the strong vested interests that impede inclusive growth.
40. Prospects are improving for sustained peace and development in Mindanao. In October 2012, the government signed a Framework Agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The Agreement lays out a process to establish "the Bangsamoro", a new autonomous political entity to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and finalize a peace agreement with the MILF. It is hoped the Agreement will meet the demands of the Muslim population for genuine autonomy and contribute to improved security. Key technical annexes to the framework agreement were completed in January 2014, paving the way for the signing on March 27 of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro. Two critical steps remain: the passing of the new Bangsamoro law by the Philippine Congress and its ratification in a plebiscite. If ratified, a Bangsamoro Transition Authority will be appointed to govern ahead of elections in line with the national schedule in May 2016. As the peace process continues to progress, the development community has begun to respond to government and MILF requests to scale up donor support to build capable and accountable institutions that can improve security and provide jobs. The peace process continues to face some challenges, including threats from other groups that may feel left out of the consultation process. Other implementation challenges include strengthening the political leadership when the Bangsamoro Government is created.
16 President Aquino was elected with a strong plurality of 42%, 16 points ahead of the second‐placed candidate. The Constitution imposes a single‐term limit of six years for the President.
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41. The May 2013 midterm elections confirmed strong support for President Aquino’s reform agenda and established an environment for continued reforms through 2016. The elections were relatively peaceful, orderly and credible. Voter turnout was estimated at 70% of the 52 million registered voters. President Aquino’s coalition won 9 of 12 Senate seats, while many of the winning local chief executives are also aligned with his coalition. Barring exceptional political controversies, President Aquino is considered well placed to continue to leverage his popularity to implement reforms through the end of his term. However, the next two years will bring political positioning for the presidential elections in 2016.
42. Development in the Philippines is enriched by an active civil society. The Philippine civil society community, especially nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), is known to be one of the world’s more vibrant and sophisticated. Many of these organizations are involved in diverse development work at the operational or advocacy levels and have organized themselves into networks or large coalitions. It is estimated there are over 95,000 NGOs.17 There are even more civil society groups, mainly peoples’ organizations, operating informally at the local level. Approximately 7,000 groups are doing development work, either on their own, or in partnership with the government and/or international development partners. Despite these strengths, the country’s CSOs are largely spread over many issues and sectors, giving an impression of fragmentation. Recent events that involved channeling of government funds to non‐existent NGOs have also affected public trust towards CSOs in general, to the detriment of those that are legitimately working on development programs and issues. The Government is now working on streamlining the registration process for CSOs to address fraud among CSOs.
E. The Government’s Development Vision
43. President Aquino’s Social Contract is reflected in the 2011‐2016 Philippine Development Plan (PDP) with its overarching theme of inclusive growth. The PDP develops the vision of inclusive growth and poverty reduction through concrete actions that focus on three strategic objectives: (i) attaining a sustained and high rate of economic growth that provides productive employment opportunities, (ii) equalizing access to development opportunities for all Filipinos, and (iii) implementing effective social safety nets to protect and enable those who do not have the capability to participate in the economic growth process. To achieve sustained and high growth, the PDP calls for a stable macroeconomic environment, increased infrastructure investment and competitiveness, and improved governance. To enable broad‐based access to development opportunities, the PDP calls for increased investment in human capital (education and health) and improved access to infrastructure, finance, land, and other assets. For effective social protection, the plan lays out the needs for developing effective and responsive safety nets.
44. In January 2013, the government issued a Socioeconomic Report: The First Two Years of the Aquino Administration 2010‐2012, which provides an assessment of progress on the PDP’s strategies and targets.18 The report concludes that macro‐economic performance is on track, and progress had been made across a broad range of areas—competitiveness, infrastructure (access to electricity and water, increased mobile phone access and increased number of schools and public health facilities), access to finance, protection of the environment and natural resources. The report finds that better governance is reshaping the landscape of public institutions. In mid‐2013, the Cabinet undertook a critical internal midterm review, which found that government actions and programs will need more focus and convergence. 17 Based on the number registered with the Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission. 18 The Socioeconomic Report 2010‐2012 is available on the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) website at: www.neda.gov.ph/econreports_dbs/SER/SER2010‐2012new.pdf.
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45. In April 2014, the Government issued the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2011‐2016 Midterm Update.19 The Midterm Updates highlights the country’s robust economic performance, strong fiscal space and unprecedented level of international confidence. It also outlines remaining challenges, including slow implementation of vital infrastructure projects, continued high cost of doing business, and most fundamentally, evidence that the benefits of growth have not yet turned into poverty reduction. “The challenge for the remainder of the plan period … is to ensure that economic growth will be sustained, … is inclusive; that it will result job creation of the productive and remunerative kind and lead to the reduction of poverty in its multiple dimensions.”20 The Midterm Update revises the poverty target based on the national poverty line to between 18 and 20% by 2016 to take into consideration the slow response of poverty to economic growth and the setbacks in 2013 due to the impact of disasters. It also highlights the spatial dimension of poverty, focusing government interventions on provinces chosen by: the number or magnitude of poverty, the provincial poverty incidence and the province’s vulnerability to natural disasters, with the type of intervention determined by the type of poverty or vulnerability.
Part III ‐ Lessons from the Current CAS, Client Survey and Multi‐stakeholder Consultations
A. Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) Completion Report
46. An evaluation of the effectiveness of the WBG’s current CAS in achieving its objectives was completed to inform preparation of the CPS (Annex 3). The last CAS, a joint IBRD/IFC/MIGA strategy (FY10‐13), carried the theme of Making Growth Work for the Poor.21 The CAS supported country‐level development goals through five strategic objectives: maintaining a stable macro‐economy, improving the investment climate, better public service delivery, reduced vulnerabilities, and good governance. Overall, progress towards achieving the CAS outcomes was rated as satisfactory, and WBG performance was rated as satisfactory. The enabling environment for WBG engagement transformed over the CAS period, benefitting from strong government leadership and the capacities, programs, and reforms put in place during the CAS period. The evaluation concludes that the WBG should continue to address the reforms initiated during the CAS period.
47. The key lessons from the FY10‐13 CAS include:
Improvements in governance require concerted efforts to build constituencies for continued reforms. The government’s flagship programs, such as the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, the community driven development program, and Bottom‐Up Budgeting, have attempted to break the nexus of local patronage politics, replacing them with more transparent and accountable public service delivery. The Bank should continue assisting the government in designing and monitoring the impact of these programs. It is also important to help build a broad base of constituents inside and outside the government who demand a continuation of reforms beyond the end of the current administration in 2016.
Analytical and Advisory Services (AAA) should remain at the heart of the WBG program. WBG financing is useful to the extent to which it can consolidate policy reform, provide funding for the delivery of important programs, or experiment and generate learning that can inform better planning and decision‐making. As the country's economy has grown and the WBG financing has
19 The Philippine Development Plan 2011‐2016 Midterm Update with Revalidated Results Matrices is available on the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) website at http://plans.neda.gov.ph/pdp/. 20 Op, cit. page 3. 21 The CAS was extended by a year (from FY12 to FY13) in the CAS Progress Report, shared with the Board in May 2010.
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