RUSSIA OUTLOOK:

FROM TANDEM TO

PUTIN

Ⅱ

MARCH 16T H 2

0 1 2

T E MP L E 　UN I V

E R S I TY

NOBUO SH IM

OTOMA I

PREFACE Putin won at the election 4th March presidential election Unprecedented meetings and demonstrations for ‘Russia

without Putin’ Why Tandem failed ? Character and orientation of the protest movement 　

from December to March How Kremlin reacted to these challenges? Future of Political reforms New Agendas of the Putin Ⅱ

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Ⅰ ・ FROM PUTIN TO TANDEM

Putin revisited, From the First PersonGrandfather was Lenin’s cook, It means that his ancestors were the Old believers, or Russian protestants who were against the state orthodox church

Putin Ⅰas weak President, he won only 53 percent votes. Putin’s agenda: strengthening the state, horizontal controlState control over strategic resources like oil and gas, after Khodo ｒ kovskii

incidentPutin from 2004, authoritarian control after Beslan tragedy Pragmatism, especially after 2007, when some proposed the third term,

Instead invented Tandem system by instituting ‘technical’ President D. 　 Medvedev

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TEN YEARS ACHIEVEMENTS 2002

ＧＤＰ　　　 1282 　 bnPer average 　　 2376 ＄Foreign currency reserve 36.6 bn 　population 　　 　　 145 　 mnLife expectancy of men 58.7Average pregnancy 　

１．２Federal level state

bureaucrats 　 ６００，０００

2012ＧＤＰ　　 2260 　bn 　 13000 ＄　　　 498bn ＄ 　　　　 143 　mn 　　　　　 　 64.3 　　　　　 １．６　　　　 　８６０，００

０

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PUTIN’S POLITICS AND ECONOMY

Elites; Oligarkh, Siloviki and CivilikiBurden of bureaucracy, irony of strengthening the

state Corruption, Ozero group attacked, though systemic State corporation expanding (Gasprom and

Rostekhnologia) Modernization, Military industrial complexSkolkovo and “Sovereign economy”

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PUTIN AND STATE BUREAUCRATSHow many Russian bureaucrats?

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Ⅱ・CRISES OF TANDEM

Autonomy of D. Medvedev （２０１０－ 201 １ fall ）Agenda of Political modernization Was power struggle between Medvedev and Putin

existed?Siloviki? Vs. Civiliki?By 2011 the gap was salient. Yurgens and G.Pavlovskii

advocates Medvedev’s agendas By May 2011, Putin organizationally set up the National

Front along with, or alternative to EdinorossYaroslavel and Valdai as international supporters, but

few support for Medvedev24th September, Putin decides (By the end of August

really)Lybia as demarcation line between P and M,Yurgens

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Kremlin, the first DeputyCchief of the Executive Office as chief ideologueChechen, Alifa bank ‘Soveriegn Democracy’ Dissmised by December 27thV.Bolodin, Saratov political scientist, against Ayatskov as the gubernor

V. Surkov

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Ⅲ ・ POLITICAL TECHNOLOGY OF PUTIN

NEW PERSONS

Specialist on elections Edinoross secretary from 2001The Putin’s government Chief secretary , October 2010‘V den vyborakh’Former position Naryshkin, Peskov, Vaino as close associates

　 　 　 　 　 　 V ・B O L O D I N

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Gubernator Ayatskov as common enemy for Putin and VolodinSatirical film on how oligarkh controls election by mobilizing campaigner

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V DEN’ VYBORAKH(2007)

FIRST CIRCLE VICTORY OR FINAL VICTORY?SILOVIKI AND NATIONALISTS

Sergei Ivanov Govorukhin, N Mikhalkov, BodarchukChemezov and SechinPatrushevDugin, Kruginyan and Prokhorov as campaigner

LIBERALS WITHIN GOVERNMENT

Ｄ・ MedvedevShwarov deputy minisiter DvorkovichKudrinSurkov?Chubais and others

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（ ANTI-ORANGE MEETING ON 4TH FEBRUARY)

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Plotnaya on 4th February

Rebirth of Civil society?

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ANTI-PUTIN MEETING TURNS INTO CARNIVALS

PUBLIC OPINION （ VTSIOM) ）

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ELECTION RESULTS (OFFICIAL AND CIVIC)

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Ａ ． N A V L N Y I 、 L A W Y E R ３ ５ A K U N I N , W R I T E R

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NEW COMERS

S . U D A LT S O V P R O K H R O V , O L I G A R C K

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Ⅳ ・THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, END OF ONE DOMINANT PARTY SYSTEM

T H E F A L L O F T H E E D I N O R O S S

EdinoRoss as Russian LDP system?Popov and MigranyanPutin against the EdinorossThe constitution change by Medvedev-more authoritarian, American model?-Or Parliamentary Cabinet system?

　 N E W O P P O S I T I O N I S T S P O S S I B L E ?

Ideological gap , liberal, national and leftists　 New law on the PartyClub like 4th Nov. Kremlin invites part of oppositionists(systemic and part of systemic)Kudrin, former finance Minister also plans to set up the party

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ＰＯＬＩＴＩＣＡＬ　ＲＥＦＯＲＭ SNew law on the party 　 minimum 500 =new mushroom 68 parties for applicationControl over by Kremlin, Bolodin How to cope with the disintegration of systemic

dominant party, Edinoross, into normal horizontal structure. Example of Japanese experience from LDP to the real two party system

Oppositionists can unite? Personal party again? Yabloko as personified party still. Ideology left and Right

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PUTINⅡ AND PERESTROIKAⅡ

S E V E N A R T I C L E S B Y P U T I N

Putin’s Seven articles on national, constitutional, corruption, foreign, democracy and investment

Core of appointment fixed, Naryshkin, Sechin, Rogodin, Surkov as deputy ministers,

Reformists likely to be appointed like Nabiurina

P R E M I E R M I N I S T E R

Ｄ・ Medvedev decidedBy 7th March began to discuss on the new alignment of the governmentConfused imageＡ・ KudrinProkhorov refused to join

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PUTINⅡAS TRANSITIONAL PHENOMENA? First, unpopular Putin manage the unpopular policy

measure? Hand control over unprecedented crisis?

Second, waning Medvedev manage to survive? Otherwise who is likely to replace

Third, political reform and constitutional change possible before, or along with political reforms? Crises may take place spontaneously and destabilise the system

Fourth, sub-elites, verticals clans manifest 　themselves. 　 How to control

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Ⅴ ・ FOREIGN POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Fall of Medvedev as Atlantic orientation Eurasianism in Ascendance in Izvestya article October 2011 However China not mentioned Putin as anti-Chinese? Next premier Li was declined in

February MN article on foreign policy was drafted by foreign Ministry.

Who is going to be a foreign minister? Pro US vs,Pro China lobby

Why Japan was not mentioned Multipolar and anti-Americanism in disguise Japan as a new partner?

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CONCLUDING REMARKS

The future of protest movements as civic Society rebirth?

Medvedev as transitional Premier Minister?Can the real oppositionist party instituted? But Putin Ⅱ as temporary phenomenon?

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