Japan’s Three Territorial Issues

May 15, 2012Kazuhiko Togo

Kyoto Sangyo University

Historical memory: Summer 1945 Cold War: 51 San Francisco; 56 Joint Declaration; 60 Gromyko statement

Post-Cold War: 25 years of negotiations

Northern Territories: Past

KE talk HStransfer

KEdecide

91 Ka.-Go.

OK NO ------

93 Tok.D.

OK OK indirect

------

01 Irkutsk

OK OK start

2006 Russian decisions: 　　　 Resume talks + Invest to the islands

2009 “unlawful occupation” 　 2010 Medvedev’s visit to Kunashiri

2012: Putin reelected as president

March 1 Press interview May 7 Inauguration

Northern Territories: Present

How should we evaluate Putin? Probably last stage negotiations are opened for the foreseeable future

Economic cooperation projects Starting from Irkutsk Anything but “four islands en bloc (ikkatsu)”

Half to one year negotiations period Who are the negotiators?

Northern Territories: Future

1895~1971 Japanese sovereignty, no objection from China or Taiwan

1971: Taiwan and china claim (Oil 1968) 72 Zhou “not now”; 78 Deng “next generation” tacit agreement to shelve

90 China’s territorial water law 97 Fishery agreement 02 GOJ lease 04 seven activists landing

Senkaku: Past

2008 Research vessels for 9 hours sailing

2010.9.7 Collision of fishery vessels to coast guards

“core interests” : key strategic location between Taiwan and Okinawa, which is on the first islands chain

Possibility to explode as historical memory issue: outside Ryuukyu’s 36 islands; 1885 GOJ’s hesitancy; precursor to Taiwan

Senkaku: Present

Prepare : dynamic defense position and strengthening of southern deployment of MSDF from December 2010

Talk: Gromyko’s humiliation not needed

What to aim? From minimal control to peaceful coexistence, eventually to joint economic activities

Senkaku: Future

1905 Shimane ownership 1910 Korea’s annexation 51 San Francisco (IL Japan stronger) 1954 Korea’s Takeshima occupation 1965 Normalization talk Historical memory: precursor to the annexation + identity emotionalism

1998 Fishery agreement

Takeshima: Past

2005 Shimane Prefecture’s “Takeshima Day” diplomatic war

2006 sea bed map incident 2008 textbook and naming issue 2011 three parliamentarians’ visa refused

Takeshima: Present

Talk: sovereignty, track II more realistic

2011 Ikeuchi and Kim talk Confidence building measure: governments’ imitative needed; Japan-Russia experience to borrow

June 2009 SAIS Conference

Takeshima: Future