Punjab Energy Efficiency and Conservation Programme 2015-

18(36 Months) M Qasim Khokhar(34Common)

B.Sc (Elect Engg) UET Lahore

M.Sc (Elect Engg) UET Lahore

MBA (IBA Karachi)

Managing Director,

PEECA

Why EE&C

• Peoples without Electricity – In Pakistan =51Million (31%)

– Sri Lanka =2Million (11%)

– India = 304M (25%)

– Sub-Saharan Africa = 621 Million (68%)

• Pakistan Electricity Fuel Mix – gas: 47.5 %

– oil: 30.5%

– And more and more Coal is coming.

Energy Efficiency & Conservation

Efficiency Conservation

uses smarter technology uses smarter behavior

means using energy more effectively means using less energy (turning off the lights, powering down computers etc)

you don't have to sacrifice comfort to save energy.

it may impact comfort .

means improving generation, transmission, distribution or consumption (end use) to avoid waste, creating additional energy supply at source, and effecting a reduction of undesirable emissions to the atmosphere or air due to better fuel combustion

Energy Conservation

• Energy Waste means amount of energy that remains unused or discarded due to incomplete burning or combustion; or due to use of inefficient energy consuming equipment, appliance or due to process; or inefficient O&M and management of a system

Explanation of few terms

• “energy audit” means an examination of any energy consuming project about the way the energy is generated, transmitted, distributed or used there and identification of areas where energy waste can occur for improving energy efficiency and where scope for improving energy use efficiency may be possible;

• “energy use assessment” means a comprehensive review and analysis to determine the appropriateness of energy use in any energy consuming project;

• pollution” means contamination of air and water due to discharge of air pollutants as a consequence of incomplete or inefficient combustion of energy resources that alters unfavorably the chemical, physical, biological, radiation, thermal, radiological or aesthetic properties of air, water or atmosphere;

project objectives

• To bridge the demand and supply gap through a two-pronged approach of Demand and Supply Management

• Detailed policies and regulations will be implemented to create an environ conducive for transformation of our society

• to divert the market towards energy efficient solutions and to mitigate the existing inefficiencies in the system

– market would be triggered through various EE&C initiatives by the GoPb that would concurrently address the legal/policy/regulatory/financial/market issues to pave way for the private sector to mature and finally take the lead .

Sector Objectives • Build a power generation capacity to meet Pakistan’s needs in

a sustainable manner.

• Promote efficient use of energy –a critical link in reducing the stress on expansion of energy supplies and on the environment.

• Make buildings more energy efficient, especially for reduction of air-conditioning loads in summer. Solar heating will be promoted for winter use.

• Ensure the generation of inexpensive and affordable electricity for domestic, commercial, and industrial from indigenous resources such as coal (Thar coal) and hydel.

• Minimize inefficiencies in the distribution system.

Sector Objectives

• Develop minimum ESCOs selection criteria for implementation of this program and also develop Energy Conservation fund for the financial support of ESCOs

• Develop performance contracting mechanism between the ESCOs and industrial units for working of the ESCOs in different sectors

• Define clear major & minor players of the program along with the different industrial sectors

• Develop sustainable production centers within different industrial associations

• Development of curriculum for energy managers in different industries for E C& E measures in industry

Potential Projects under the Program

• Policy formulation & regulation

• Creating awareness and promotion to create a culture of energy conservation

• Training and development of engineers in the domain of energy conservation and efficiency

• To promote energy audit culture in the province.

Why Conservation ?

• Energy demand would increase by 95% by 2030 but if we make it efficient, than by 35%.

• Pak energy consumption/GDP is 31MBTU while that of USA 10, UK 5, world 13. • Pak energy consumption/capita is 51MBTU while that of USA 322, UK 158, world

68` • If Pakistan continues without altering its huge dependency on Bio Mass and

Petroleum Products it will have no forest cover within the next seven years. • Annual energy savings of up to 25 percent are possible in all sectors which

corresponds to financial savings of over Rs. 300billion/year. • Overall potential savings from end-use efficiency has been estimated at about Rs.

41 billion/year (net). Integrated Energy Sector Recovery Report and Plan October 2010-ADB

• Statistics released by the World bank show that the ownership of motorcycles in the bottom quintile has increased from 2 per cent to 18pc, televisions from 20pc to 36pc and refrigerators from 5pc to 14pc.

• The number of homes constructed with bricks or blocks increase while mud (katcha) homes decreased. Homes with flushing toilet almost doubled in the bottom quintile, jumping from 24pc in 2002 to 49pc in 2014.

Why Efficiency?

• 25-30% saving per MW for each saved MW in comparison with the cost of addition of 1 MW in the system

• Access to electricity in all un-electrified primary schools and some remote villages

• Reduced line losses due to decentralized power production. Currently these are 18% calculated for whole country for year 2015. Loss of 1% is loss of Rs 10 Billion PKR.

• Reduced load shedding locally

• Efficient energy management of the existing produced electricity using modern techniques of load shifting

• Better recovery as better sense of ownership . Current recovery is 93.4%

Potential of Saving

Title Saving

Late commercial activities in Mega Polis of Karachi and Metropolis of Lahore etc

600MW

Fans 1500MW

Motors 1000MW

LEDs replacing ICL/ES (CFL) especially streets

1000MW

UPS 500MW

CRT TV replacement with LED 2000MW (10 M TV to be replaced)

Tubewells (On Grid) 450MW

Tubewells (OFF Grid) 2000MW

Plugged in Chargers –Idle State 50MW (20MW mobile & 30 Laptop)

Heat Recovery & Co-generation

Total 7050MW +2000MW Aprox

Total Energy Crisis 6000MW

Potential Saving in Gas

Winter heater 45% efficiency Normal heater has 10% eff

Geyeser flat plat can be made in pakistan 40-45% eff.

Tubes geyser eff is 60%. It is patented. Availabe at alfalah building. 30-35k for 100L. Cost is

Estimating Potential for Energy Saving in Punjab

• Item Quanti

ty Connected Load

Saving potential

Saving potential MW

Yearly Target MW

Yearly target in numbers for replacement

Light 300M Yearly replace 194 M

Boiler 7-13%

Industrial motors

40% of industrial demand

9-13% of industrial demand

15TWh/yr

Street light

150000

240 5

Municipal water supply & Treatment pump

3000 128 10 5 15000

Tubewell Agri

203,889

2322 38% 882 40-50 2500

strategies for the resolution of the governance issues

• Being proactive in the formulation of policies and regulations in Net-metering Rules draft and recommend necessary changes to cater for the requirements of projects under PEEC Program.

• Developing energy efficient building codes for small buildings in association with the relevant authorities.

• Assisting cities and town development authorities in making the building codes quantifiable and ensuring the enforcement of rules and regulations.

• Make necessary amendments in the legal and regulatory framework to cater for the functioning of independent micro-grids.

• Hiring foreign experts for the domains associating company employees with them for knowledge transfer and local capacity building

Supply-Demand Gap

• demand for electricity would increase to about 39,870MW by 2025.[Ref:State of the Industry Report, 2013]

• The current installed capacity of power plants in Pakistan stands at 25,225MW.

• Available Hydel capacity if harnessed is 60158MW [Ref: Ans by Minister for Water and Power in Parliament/NA on 20-01-2016

• The installed capacity of power plants is increasing at an average rate of 3.31% per year,

• while the demand increasing at average rate of 3.99% State of the Industry Report, 2013 but Now at 7%.

Supply-Demand Gap (Punjab)

Supply-Demand Gap (Federal)

Situation in Punjab

• Punjab consumes 62-68% of the total electricity produced at the national level

• There is a demand-supply gap of about 4000 MW which is increasing at a rate of 6% per annum.

• Punjab with 68% of the consumption of generated power and gas is worst affected

Social Benefits • Electricity access to schools in rural areas, thus increasing the enrolment

and the literacy rate

• Electricity access to off-grid / remote villages for household usage, for pumping for irrigation, and for cold storage for milk etc.

• More availability of electricity and reduced load shedding

• Informed purchasing decision through standard and labelling

• Prevalence of energy conservation culture making people spendthrifty in other areas like food.

• Industrial Growth

• Bio-waste management through power production in Bio-gas plants

• Improvement in the irrigation system of Pakistan through drip irrigation or sprinkling

• Availability of electricity for the operations of emergency equipment in Basic Health Units (BHUs) 24X7

• Generation of employment for the public

Environmental Benefits

• Reduction in the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the environment through both energy conservation and installation of clean energy projects

• Reduction in the overall entropy of the system by using LED lights, efficient pumps, and other machinery industrial, commercial, agricultural, domestic

• Obligations of Kyoto Protocol would be met.

• It will complement National ‘’Climate Change Adaptation Plan’’ of Better Climate Adaptation and mitigation.

Kyoto protocol

• an agreement which extends the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

• Countries that ratify it commit to reducing their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases (Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone Sulfur Hexaflouride, CFC-12, HCFC-22), or engaging in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.

• Its Clean Development Mechanism (CDM allows industrialized countries to achieve part of their emission reduction by conducting projects abroad, and counting the reductions achieved toward their own commitments.

• A condition for the issue of credits in respect of the reductions achieved is that the projects result in real, measurable and long-term climate change benefits.

• On 11 January 2005, Pakistan submitted its instruments of accession to the Protocol.

What’s Qiyamat- a Sudden Total Collapse ?

• Energy wastage and environmental degradation are two of five risk factors due to which total entropy or Qiyamat or total collapse of the present system will occure as per study sponsored by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

• According to it we only have a few decades left before everything we know and hold dear collapses.

• The report, written by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center along with a team of natural and social scientists, explains that modern civilization is doomed.

• Analyzing five risk factors for societal collapse (population, climate, water, agriculture and energy), the report says that the sudden downfall of complicated societal structures can follow when these factors converge to form two important criteria.

• Motesharrei's report says that all societal collapses over the past 5,000 years have involved both "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity" and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]." This "Elite" population restricts the flow of resources accessible to the "Masses", accumulating a surplus for themselves that is high enough to strain natural resources.

Climate Change Vulnerability of Pakistan

• Pakistan has become 8th country from 10th rank on the list hit by climate change

• Glaciers are melting at Hindukush mountain range while there are conflicting reports about melting of glaciers on Karakoram Range

• Framework for implementation of national climate change policy - 2014 identifies initiatives to be undertaken by the concerned federal and provincial governments for both adaptation and mitigation.

• Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment –factors accelerating climate change impacts such as erratic behaviour and marked changes in the intensity, frequency and variability of temperature, precipitation, floods, droughts, cyclones etc

Project Analysis

• Quantifiable Output of the Project

– over 16MW which corresponds only to the projects that will be executed using the Government Seed-money.

– The cumulative target for the 5 years is 442MW, which will include projects done both through Seed-money and the company’s matured revolving fund in due time.

Employment Generation

• Direct & Indirect employment -daily wageworkers, electricians, individual consultants, engineers for demand-side efficiency projects

• The triggering of EE&C market would generate ample employment and business opportunities in the private market.

• The investment portfolio in the Renewable Energy sector has increased by almost US$ 1 billion in 2015.

• British multinational Eversheds says “Pakistan is one of the most exciting renewable markets globally, with an abundance of potential”

Policy Initiatives for Promotion of EE&C in Punjab

• Project # A-1: Designated Consumers

• Project # A-2: Appliance Standards and Labelling

• Project # A-3: Energy Conservation Building Codes (ECBC)

• Project # A-4: Media Campaign

• Project # A-5: Training and workshops.

Project # A-1: Designated Consumers

• specifying any user or class of users of energy as a designated consumer having regards to the intensity or quantity of energy consumed and the capacity of the industry/commercial/ public facility to invest in energy efficiency/renewable energy technologies for reducing the energy intensity of its operations.

Key Components

• Identifying and preparing draft notification of designated consumers ;

• Establishing & prescribing norms for specific energy consumption (SEC);

• Prepare a plan for SEC reduction by DCs ; • Providing support to DCs for formulating and

implementing sectoral initiatives through stakeholder forums

• Empanelment of energy auditors / energy service providers for helping DCs comply with requirements of policy

Designated Consumers..........

• Monitoring and Evaluation

– Monitoring would remain focussed on quality of program management manifested by timely achievement of various milestones to be frozen within a month of approval of the PEECP.

– Evaluation would shift towards assessment of quantitative performance parameters (energy saved)

Project # A-2: Appliance Standards and Labelling

• Objective – To identify and notify policy for incentivizing

manufacturers to adopt MEPS for priority energy consuming equipments

• Key Components – Situational analysis for prioritization of appliances to be

covered – Formulate an expert group of for preparing a road map for

voluntary adoption of MEPS for the highest priority appliances

– Develop system and processes for implementation of S&L programme

– Design and organize awareness programs and promotional events

Need for S&L

• There are studies e.g NUST that Silicon Electrical Steel is necessary for energy efficient fans.

Result of Testing

• consumers to seek protection in relevant courts as per Section 4,5,8 & 11 of The Punjab Consumers Protection Act 2005.)

32

Fan Brand Current at no load(Amp)

Blaze and GFC 0.15

Vico 0.30

Indus 0.34

Royal 0.34

China Fan 0.42

Project # A-3: Energy Conservation Building Codes (ECBC)

• Current Situation – Building code for Pakistan has been promulgated vide SRO number 249 (I)/2013 in May

2013.

– ENERCON has also developed a design and practicing manual for implementation of ECBC for buildings that have a total connected load of 100kW or contract demand of 125 kVA

– Buildings with a conditioned area of at least 900 m2 or unconditioned buildings with at least 1,200m2 covered area have to follow the energy efficiency requirements.

– Initially, the provisions apply to new buildings/ expansions.

• Way Forward. – ECBC would require some modification for adapting to the climatic conditions

corresponding to Punjab province.

– Consultation with architects, manufacturers of building products, mechanical and electrical system manufacturers and contractors and capacity building for the municipal engineers (or housing department) in assessment and certification of building drawings.

• Revise syllabus of UETs of architecture, Arechetectural Engg and civil engineering

Energy Conservation Building Codes (ECBC)...........

• Objective – To put in place policy for enabling compliance of

energy conservation building codes for new constructions.

• Key Components – Review and modification of ECBC relevant for the

Punjab province – Development of Tools & systems for implementation

of ECBC – Capacity building of stake holders on compliance

process and compliance verification

Importance of ECBC • 50% of heating and cooling load reduces if buildings are located East West

with windows opening towards South.

• Thermal comfort increases as thermal envelop becomes more efficient by thermal insulation is key i.e solar responsive design is a major subset of energy efficient design.

• Surprisingly, many of significant techniques for reducing consumption of energy are low cost or even free e.g painting roofs and walls white.

• Negawatts are much cheaper than Megawatts.

• Successful solar responsive design of buildings requires understanding of solar geometry. This can be done by understanding dynamic nature of sun angles by means of intuitive device called a heliodon.

• Color and radiant barriers are very important in heat avoidance.

• Shadings, views, daylighting, and heating can be integrated into a single design.

Transport Sector-Food For Thought

• 10 percent of petroleum related greenhouse gas emissions are from industry operations, 90 percent are from consumer use of petroleum So Transport sector is the most crucial link in conservation chain.

• Mass Transit programmes in major cities are under way. • Energy Conservation Road Codes

– Providing dedicated lanes for cycles & pedestrians – reducing all taxes on cycles and increasing same on motor cycles on China and

Japan pattern.

• Canal and River Transportation – Canals e.g in Lahore and Faisalabad can become arteries of transporation if

ferry services are launched which consume 8 times less fuel than roads and 2.5 times less than train.

– Cargo transporation can be undertaken . It needs only 4 feet water which is available in Pakistan rivers.

– World around like Europe and USA are doing it on successful basis. – Pakistan has rich history of river transporation.

Changes in import Policy/Structure

• Pakistan continues to be a dumping ground for fuel guzzling and polluting vehicles like sprinkler lorries, dump trucks, with Pakistanis spending much more per capita on transportation while suffering the effects of pollution, which causes hundreds of deaths each year.

• No transportation vehicle more than 10 years age be allowed import. Or at least registration and plying on Punjab road.

• Current import policy provisions like Euro-II compliance are inadequate.

• Some times certifying agencies give Euro-II compliance certificate to so old vehicles which have model older than year of inception of Euro-II.

• So clear cut , measurable threshold is age of vehicles.

• Banning junk energy savors from china.

• Lifting ban on solar ACs which are Energy star rated from India.

• Focus on using cleaner alternative fuels e.g. LPG in order to reduce our dependency on CNG

• Encourage the use of biofuels and new technologies;

Energy Conservations Social Codes-Out of Box Solutions

• Appointing honorary Conservation Magistrates on pattern of France & Germany. – Who can fine upto 5000/- for wasting energy like street lights are not switched off. Heaters are used

for cooking (Amending Section 46 of Electricity Act 910).

– Same magistrates later on can be empowered to fine for wasting food in hotels or homes on patteren of Germany and France. etc.

– these will be existing officers of government like doctors or electric inspectors, teachers who are respected in neighbor hood and will work without additional salary.

• Banning suit and ensuring dress code for summer season.

• Enhancing provincial excise duty on 2nd and 3rd vehicle registered in one name/immediate family.

• Empowering sitting officer in every formation as Energy Supervisor who will submit monthly report and will be able to fine upto 2000/- on wasting energy. He will be given targets to reduce energy bill.

• Each restaurant/Club should – display board to order minimum food,

– link with schools, orphan centres to provide extra food.

– register beggars or who need food to supply them with rest over food instead of wasting it.

• Ensuring Switching of markets by 9:00 pm in summer and 8:00pm by winter. Its our religion.

• Wa Ja all laila sakanunn. • وجعلالليلسكنا والشمس

حسبانوالقمر (96)AL ANAAM. He makes the night for rest and tranquillity, and the

sun and moon for the reckoning (of time): • Sura Younis Ayat 67 Howallazi ja ala lakumu ullaila litaskunu fee hay wa

annahara mubsirun.( Translation: And He is one who created night so that you get peace and comfort and day as broad sunny.)

• Introducing lessons in syllabi of primary schools and madrassahs on conservation.

• Reduce the number of one‐person car trips by raising motorway/hi way usage fee for cars having passengers less than 3.

Change in Financial Frame work

• Motivating banks to extend loan on solar panels and wind turbines in areas of solar and wind atlas and false ceiling of upper roof of house.

• Pricing distortions (highly subsidized gas and electricity prices) have resulted in institutionalizing inefficiency and profligate usage of energy resources.

Environmental Effects • Increase level of carbon footprint results in global

warming • Earth’s lower atmosphere is becoming warmer and

moister, as a result of global warming. This gives the potential for more energy for storms and certain severe weather events

• Green house gases have enveloped the earth and entrap sun light which is converted into heat and thus global average temperature has risen by 0.5 C in one century though there is a threat of increase by 4.5 C by the end of the century. Thus we see sever heat waves in moderate temperature cities like Karachi killing thousands in few days.

•

Cont.. • The level of GHG has increased to 430ppm from

280ppm CO2 equivalent. In order to avoid catastrophe, it should be below 450ppm-550ppm CO2.

• The number of people affected from disasters have risen by 68%, from an average of 174 million a year in 1985-1994 to 254 million a year from 1995-2004.

• Change in climate cause high tidal actions. Many lands will be submerged. Bangladesh will be affected the most as 70 million people will become homeless.

• Flora and fauna will be vanished from the flood areas.

Cont.. • Using sub standard material in motors/ pumps

results in loss of economy of farmers, wasting national productivity and energy of the country, lowering GDP

• More depth of the well, results in more energy consumption by the Agri motors. Centrigugal pumps and turbines are highly inefficient viz submersible pumps(in order of priority)

• Due to increase in the depth of well, concentration of metals in water increases causing health issues to the people.

• Increase conc of metals cause corrosion in pipes.

Cont.. • 90 percent of hazardous gases are

produced from consumer use of petroleum.

• High temperatures created by the combustion of petroleum cause nitrogen gas in the surrounding air to oxidize, creating nitrous oxides which results in acid rain.

• Pakistan is facing acute shortage as per capita availability of water has been reduced to 925 cubic meters wiz 5600 cubic meters, due to increase water consumption at domestic level.

• Diversion of water for irrigation and power generation has left the rivers dried. This ecological catastrophe has created food shortages and resulted in a rise in infant mortality and a decrease in life expectancy for the nearby population.

Effects of Depletion of Resources

• Our current global population is 7.2 billion and growing. Earth’s total resources are only good for 2 billion people at the current demand.

• Depletion of natural resources produces competition among living organisms for the remaining portions, and diminishes the quality of available resources.

Question and Answer Session

• Please Wake up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• It is your time now