Pushing the Limits

Keynote Address

International Association of Hydrogeologists

By

Prof. Anthony Turton

Vice President: International Water Resource Association

bronwyn@speakersinc.co.za

www.anthonyturton.com

© AR Turton, 2009

Layout of Presentation• An Overview of Water

– The Water Scarcity phenomenon – Population growth as a factor

• The Role of Groundwater• Specific Challenges

– Groundwater Recharge

• Pushing the Limits– Water and Energy Nexus

• Conclusion

World Water Scarcity 1990

Water scarcity is related to population growth as much as it is related to environmental factors

World Water Scarcity 2020

Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both pass into extreme stress because of population growth

World Water Scarcity 2050

Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo as extremely stressed systems

World Water Scarcity 2070

At this stage the most economically active portion of Southern Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa

Role of Groundwater

• Most eloquent case has been made by Prof. Pete Ashton at the CSIR.– The Thunder Graph

• Technology becomes the key issue.

• The question is, can society mobilize enough technology?– The issue of development as a constraint

• Homer-Dixon’s Thesis– The Ingenuity Gap as a concept

© P.J. Ashton

Total surface water + groundwater resources

+ maximum recycling

(Requires new water storageand treatment technologies)

Requires new sources of water (? Imports)+ radical changes to water use patterns

?

(Existing technology)

Surface water + some groundwater

+ some recycling

Low wateruse estimate[No change inper capita use]

1965 1985 2005 2025 2045

80

Years

Wat

er d

eman

d (

Bill

ion

m3

/ Yea

r)

20

0

60

40

Possible extension of time with intensive WC and WDM

Water Demand in South Africa

Ingenuity Gap as a Concept• Technical Ingenuity is the capacity to solve

complex technical problems facing society• Social Ingenuity is the national capacity to

create incentives for the generation of Technical Ingenuity

• Thomas Homer-Dixon (2000) and his team found that Social Ingenuity is a precursor to Technical Ingenuity

• Poor countries stay poor because of their failure to mobilize enough Social Ingenuity

• Social Ingenuity is determinant

Social Ingenuity

Creates Incentives and an Enabling Environment

For Technical Ingenuity

To Solve Complex Problems facing Society

Homer-Dixon, 2000.

The South African Ingenuity Gap(After Homer-Dixon (2000))

Source: Turton (2008)

Supply of Technical Ingenuity

Demand for Technical Ingenuity

Current Ingenuity

Gap

1910 1966 1985 2008 Time

Qty

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

?

?

South Africa has a classic Ingenuity Gap

in the water sector

The one sector that limits our future

economic growth potential

Specific Challenges

• If Ingenuity is a critical success factor, then what are we doing about it?

• Social Ingenuity – how are we incentivizing scientists, researchers and practitioners?

• Technical Ingenuity – what new ideas are coming forward?

• How can we make things happen?

Groundwater Recharge

• Australia is highly water constrained

• All future development is dependent on solving this core issue that has two components:– How to generate New Water?– How to do better things with Old Water?

• Water Utility Corporation of Perth– Beenyup Project

Water Corporation of Perth

Water as a Flux

• The Perth approach is based on seeing water as a flux rather than a stock.

• It involves a whole new mindset that has to be changed at every level of society.

Precipitation

Runoff

Evaporation

Water as a FluxIn this model a network of processes unlocks the maximum value from water and multiplies the initially perceived finite nature of the resource.

So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of network thinking in which it is cascaded around the economy with the number of new process cycles limited only by our ingenuity and technological capacity as a nation.

Business

ProcessEnergy

Raw Materials

Water Effluent

Product

Wealth

Recycling Process

Water as a Flux

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

Industrial Process

So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of network thinking in which it is cascaded around the economy with the number of new process cycles limited only by our ingenuity and technological capacity as a nation.

In this model a network of processes unlocks the maximum value from water and multiplies the initially perceived finite nature of the resource.

Recharge and New Water• Because evaporation is our biggest limiting

factor in terms of development ...• Any reduction in that evaporation is of prime

significance.• While the continental MAR:MAP conversion is

20%, the Limpopo and Orange conversion is 5.1%.

• Reducing evaporation therefore means creating New Water.

• Mine voids?

Surface strata

Dolomites

Ore-bearing strata

Eastern Basin

Central Basin

Western BasinDyke Dyke

Safety drive

Workings

Vertical Shaft

Acid Mine Drainage in Gauteng

The volume of the mine void under the Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume of Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss - with new thinking and political will this can

become a major source of New Water

Pushing the Limits

• Water and Energy Nexus.• SADC has had cheap electricity for too long,

but this is about to change.• Both Water and Energy have properties that

make them a Flux.• Two exciting new technological

developments– Ground Source Heat Pumps (Passive)– Geothermal Energy for Desalination (Active)

Geothermal Energy as a Concept

Ground Source Heat Pumps This is mature

technology that has been in existence for

over 25 years

It has been excluded from the SADC region because of the cheap

cost of electricity

The COP of a typical American unit is 4 and that of a European unit

can be up to 12

Ground Source Heat Pumps

This uses a confined aquifer that has a seasonal temperature

differential of just 8°C.

Active Geothermal Energy

Do we have the technical capacity to model thermal

gradients in our aquifer systems to provide drilling targets?

Binary Plant

Does the mobile belt between the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe

Craton have enough decaying Uranium to become a viable

heat source at shallower depth?

Geothermal Desalination (MSF)

The first commercial MSF plant was installed on the island of Kimolos

in Greece

The geothermal source is a flow of 60 m³/hr at a

temperature of 62°C from a bore 188 m deep

The production is 80 m³ per day at a cost of ≤1.6

Euro / m³

Larger scale commercial plants will

have an improved efficiency and thus a

lower cost

A – Suction Ejectors

B & C – Sea Water Cooling

D – Freshwater OutletE – Feedstock InletF – Brine Outlet

Significant technical improvements are

currently under development

Conclusion• Hydrogeology in the SADC region can

play a leading role in development.

• Groundwater recharge should become a strategic initiative with appropriate funding and institutional support.

• Geothermal energy has a natural synergy with hydrogeology, so we need to start building capacity in this field.

• Geothermal Energy Association of Southern Africa has just been formed.

Thank You

Groundwater Recharge is a

Priority

Geothermal Energy has a

Future