putting a “climate change filter” on stewardship and conservation
TRANSCRIPT
PUTTING A “CLIMATE CHANGE
FILTER” ON STEWARDSHIP AND
CONSERVATIONwww.forestadaptation.org
Maria Janowiak, [email protected]
Kristen Schmitt, [email protected]
Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/
ClimateCarbon
Workshop Outline IntroductionA Few Important Adaptation Ideas
Adaptation Workbook: “Turbo” version• Example from Wisc. • Your lands & projects
(Choose Your Own Adventure)
Responding to Climate Change
Manager’s Guide
If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate
change, it’s:
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying
to achieve.
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
• Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management• Workbook approach
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Coming really really soon!
• Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management• Workbook approach
www.forestadaptation.org/demos
185+PROJECT
S UNDERW
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Adaptation Demonstrations(real-world examples)
What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of a
system to cope with change and
meet conservation goals and objectives?
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
Adaptation Process
Adaptation Process: Deciphered
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
Adaptation ActionsClimate Change Filter = IntentionalityActions specifically address climate change impacts & vulnerabilities in order to meet climate-informed goals/objectives.
Actions might be the same/similar to what you’re already doing, but its necessary to explore potential modifications to address climate change.
Workshop FormatAdaptation Workbook: “Turbo” versionFor each step:• Example (Caroline Lake)• Thinking/discussion
Use handout to follow along
1. WHERE ARE YOU AND WHAT DO YOU
CARE ABOUT?
Caroline Lake PreserveThe Nature
Conservancy About 1,000 acres of forest
Acquired from industrial ownership in 1997
Working forest to demonstrate sustainable forestry practices
www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake
Conservation Goals & Objectives:
Maintain/restore forests that were historically characteristic of the area
Mid-to-late successional structure
Natural disturbances Under-represented species
Incorporate climate change considerations into a forest management planNorthern Hardwoods (643
acres)Lowland Conifer (259 acres)Lowland Hardwoods (78 acres)Shoreline Buffer (<5 acres)Upland Conifer (<5 acres)
1. WHERE ARE YOU AND WHAT DO YOU
CARE ABOUT?Introduce yourself to a
neighbor &tell them what you
care about!
2. HOW IS THIS PARTICULAR PLACE VULNERABLE TO
CLIMATE CHANGE?
Climate Change ImpactsRegional Ecosystem Impacts1) Longer growing season 2) Less snow, more rain3) Altered soil moisture4) Potential for summer
drought5) Extreme events6) Species range shifts7) Invasive plants8) Forest pests and diseases
www.forestadaptation.org/vulnerability-assessment
Altered precipitation & drier conditions Located at headwaters of Bad
River Contains numerous wetlands– very
vulnerable to hydrologic changeProjected declines in many common northern species Property contains many species expected to decline
Site has high species diversity compared to nearby forests
Climate Change Impacts
2. HOW IS THIS PARTICULAR PLACE VULNERABLE TO
CLIMATE CHANGE?Take a few minutes to reflect.
3. WHAT CHALLENGES OR OPPORTUNITIES DOES CLIMATE
CHANGE PRESENT?
Challenges Under-represented species may not do better in future: yellow birch, hemlock
Lowland conifer/hardwood forests are not managed• Declining boreal conifers • Potential emerald ash borer in ash swamps
Deer herbivory could increase
Proportion of Stand Composed of Species Projected to Decrease
Janowiak et al. (in review)
Challenges Opportunities Some species (white pine and red oak) may fare same or better in future
Small- or medium-sized disturbances increase structural diversity
Unique site and location may offer opportunities for refugia
Under-represented species may not do better in future: yellow birch, hemlock
Lowland conifer/hardwood forests are not managed• Declining boreal conifers • Potential emerald ash borer in ash swamps
Deer herbivory could increase
3. WHAT CHALLENGES OR OPPORTUNITIES DOES CLIMATE
CHANGE PRESENT?Share your one big challenge and one big opportunity with your
neighbor.
4. WHAT ACTIONS CAN HELP SYSTEMS ADAPT
TO CHANGE?
www.forestadaptation.org/demos
185+PROJECT
S UNDERW
AY
What adaptation looks like:
Same actions– climate
change just makes them that much
more important
Small “tweaks” that improve effectiveness
New & different actions to
consider, even some that may seem wild &
crazy*individual results will vary
What adaptation looks like:
Already doing and even more important
Practice Current Purpose
Adaptation Co-Benefits
Favor under-represented species
Species/structural diversity; habitats
Hedge against decline of one species; opportunity to favor future-adapted species
Encourage large woody debris
Structural diversity; habitats; nutrients
Create moister and cooler conditions on forest floor
Mimic natural disturbances
Species/structural diversity; accelerate succession
Makes it easier to take advantage of natural disturbances
Small tweaks in managementForest Current Action Adaptation ActionNorthern Hardwoods
Use single-tree or group selection methods to maintain species composition/diversity and increase structural diversity
Same, plus: Use large group selection or
shelterwood harvests to increase northern red oak in some stands
Promote white pine, black cherry, yellow birch, and other desirable species that are less likely to decline
Shoreline Buffer
No harvest reserve area
Where opportunities exist, promote white pine or other long-lived conifer component for diversity/shoreline shading
Wild and crazy? Addressing potential risks
Forest Current Action
Adaptation Action
Lowland Hardwoods
No harvest reserve area
No harvest reserve area, BUT: If regeneration is inadequate or
emerald ash borer mortality appears likely, consider introduction of plantings of swamp white oak, bur oak, etc.
4. WHAT ACTIONS CAN HELP SYSTEMS ADAPT
TO CHANGE?Discuss current
actions, small tweaks, and WILD & CRAZY
ideas with your neighbor.
5. HOW CAN YOU KNOW WHETHER THOSE ACTIONS
WERE EFFECTIVE?
Climate-informed Forest InventoryTraditional Metrics New Risk
Metrics Total Stocking Tree Species Diversity• Richness• Evenness
Large Coarse Woody Debris
Regeneration• Saplings • Seedlings
Risk of Decline• Trees • Saplings • Seedlings
Janowiak et al. (in review)
5. HOW CAN YOU KNOW WHETHER THOSE ACTIONS
WERE EFFECTIVE?Share 1 idea with your neighbor.
Nice work!
Accept uncertainty.Use new information & ideas.Take action, focusing on win-
wins.Be creative & flexible.
Work and learn with others.
A few final thoughts…
THANK YOU!Want more? Upcoming bring-your-own-project events:• Twin Cities Urban Forests: November 15-16, 2016• Online Course for New England & New York: January 16-March 3, 2017• Boston Region Urban Forests: January 24-25, 2017• Schedule online at: www.forestadaptation.org/training