putting the pieces together...putting the pieces together dynamic modelling of river restoration...
TRANSCRIPT
PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER
DYNAMIC MODELLING OF RIVER RESTORATION
MEASURES
Samantha Jane Hughes1-2, Mario Santos1, Rui Cortes2, João Cabral1,
Chris Gardner3, Bella Davies3
1.Applied Ecology Laboratory, Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal.
2. Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal.
3. South East Rivers Trust, Denmark Road, Carshalton, Surrey SM5 2JG, United Kingdom
In a nutshell…
• Altered systems• Different impacts across different scales
• River restoration• Different measures across different scales
• Links across different networks
• The role of dynamic predictive modelling• Stochastic Dynamic Methodology
• Concept – method - application
• A conceptual model for river restoration• Case study challenge
Altered river systems• Impacts of human activity
• Across spatial and temporal scales
• Complex interactions in dynamic systems
• Losses• Ecosystem processes, structure and function
• System resilience• Stochastic events: flood, wildfire, storm events,
human disasters
• Ecosystem services
• Components of well-being• Governance - compliance
• WFD, Habitats, Flood
• Socio-economic impacts
• e.g. health
Uncertainty in dynamic systems
Decomposition of variance in macroinvertebrate relative abundance data 3 spatial scales (Odelouca River, Algave, Portugal)
Hughes, SJ, Ferreira MT Cortes RV (2008). Hierarchical spatial patterns and drivers of change in benthic macroinvertebrate communities in an intermitent Mediterranean river.Aquatic Conservation: marine and freshwater ecosystems 18: 742-760.
River restoration
Restoration objectives
The role of dynamic predictive modelling
• A tool for decision support and governance
• Able to embrace system complexity and stochasticity
• Use existing data bases
• Parameterisation using gradients in data
• Assess cause-effect relationships - relevant scenarios, including stochastic events
• Provide feedback to guide maintenance and inform future management
• WFD context: to prevent deterioration or improve ecological status
• Refine restoration measures
• What issues still exist?
• What can be done to address them?
• What could be done next?
• Demonstrate restoration benefits to inform future funding bids
• Dynamic temporal outputs – graphs, tables, values
• Visualisation – coupled with GIS
Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM)• A sequential modelling method
• Comprises static and dynamic components
• Holistic principles
• Complex and dynamic processes that shape socio-ecological systems
• Linear / non-linear / cumulative
• Indicator response
• Modular
• Integrate different data sources / types
• Sensitivity analysis
• Assessment of uncertainty
• StDM model complexity determinants
• The problem
• Choice of the key-components in studied ecosystem
• Available data
• StDM + GIS = spatial projection of results
Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM)
Assess explanatory and response variables
Obtain correlative output to populate the dynamic model
Data-base of explanatory and response variable values broad enough to capture a wider gradient of the pertinent scenarios
National River Restoration inventories
River Wiki
Rivers Trust projects
Funded projects
Grey literature
Statutory body data bases e.g. WFD
A conceptual model for river restoration
Restoration scenarios Stochastic events
A conceptual model for river restoration
• Demonstration → Project
• CITAB, RRC, SERT
• Based on a small selection of restoration
measures
• NRRI and project data
• LWD and deflectors
• Assess processes conditions leading to project
success
• Objectives
• Scenarios
Integrative Research in Environment, Agro-Chains and Technology
Bio-Economy and Sustainability